November 1-3 Pauper Weekend Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Today’s post is a bit shorter than usual. It is election day here in the United States and I encourage all of you who live in the US to vote. This election will have wide reaching ramifications not just for this country but the world at large.

Foundations is almost here and it looks exciting. I wrote my thoughts about the set here (free to Patrons) but for the next few weeks we are still trying to make our way through Duskmourn. This past weekend saw three Challenges on Magic Online and the results were intriguing to say the very least. Not only did we see a return of some old stalwarts to the forefront of Pauper – looking at your Dimir Faeries – but we also saw a clustering at the top of the Winner’s Meta where several decks performed similarly. Let’s dive in.

The three best decks on the weekend, going by Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement, where Blue Terror (0.91), Kuldotha Red (0.89), and Grixis Affinity (0.83). While these three decks being at the top of the metagame is not a surprise, the lack of spread is something of note. All three of these decks are within 1/10th of a win from each other and all three performed less than one win above the average Top 32 deck. Compare this to last week where the top three decks were Golgari Fog (3.34), Grixis Affinity (3.2), and Golgari Broodscale (2.39). The dip from third to fourth place last week was 0.87; this week that spread was 0.52 (technically the fourth best deck was Dredge with an aMSAR of 0.37 – a delta of 0.46 – but Dredge had two total appearances to Jund Broodscale’s eleven Top 32 finishes).

So what does this mean? Last week the format appeared to be incredibly lopsided while the more recent run of events makes everything look much more competitive. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle. Now that we are six weeks into Duskmourn season we are seeing the metagame start to coalesce around known quantities and adjusting as such. I do not believe the format is as close at the top as the last three challenges seemed to indicate, nor do I think the wild spread is representative. Instead Pauper appears to be a dynamic format where decks, by and large, have relatively even matchups (with some outliers, of course). Clearly Pauper has some top tier decks as evidenced by the consistent performance of various Tolarian Terror builds and Grixis Affinity, but we have also seen some movement in second tier strategies as we have seen with the revitalization of Dimir Faeries and the reemergence of Jund Wildfire.

1 Agony Warp 1 Arms of Hadar 4 Augur of Bolas 1 Bojuka Bog 3 Brainstorm 2 Cast Down 4 Contaminated Aquifer 1 Contaminated Landscape 4 Counterspell 1 Dimir Aqueduct 1 Extract a Confession 3 Faerie Seer 1 Gurmag Angler 10 Island 4 Lórien Revealed 1 Murmuring Mystic 3 Ninja of the Deep Hours 3 Preordain 4 Snuff Out 1 Spell Pierce 4 Spellstutter Sprite 1 Swamp 2 Thorn of the Black Rose Sideboard 1 Arms of Hadar 1 Blue Elemental Blast 2 Dispel 1 Extract a Confession 4 Hydroblast 1 Mukotai Ambusher 1 Murmuring Mystic 1 Okiba-Gang Shinobi 2 Relic of Progenitus 1 Unexpected Fangs

Dimir Faeries is one of those decks that never really dies. It is a midrange control deck that leans heavily on its creature suite for card advantage. Ninja of the Deep Hours and Thorn of the Black Rose both keep your hand full and Spellstutter Sprite remains one of the best things you can be doing in Pauper. The rest of the deck is padded out with interaction and while the spells themselves might not be flexible, the suite itself is. Dimir Faeries can adjust to most metagames by tweaking the exact mix of countermagic and removal. From the full suite of Snuff Outs we can infer that at the moment the biggest threat in the metagame likely is not Gurmag Angler and having a free answer to almost the entire format is a pretty big game. The fact that Snuff Out kills Basking Broodscale should not be underestimated. Given this decks relatively strong performance (aMSAR of 0.20), I would expect Elves to make a push next weekend. Elves has been rising in the rankings as of late thanks in part to the addition of Nyxborn Hydra as another way to convert mana into damage and while the strategy clearly has some weaknesses people are innovating with their lists and I am excited to see what comes next.

2 Blood Fountain 4 Cleansing Wildfire 4 Deadly Dispute 4 Drossforge Bridge 1 Eviscerator's Insight 2 Forest 4 Galvanic Blast 4 Ichor Wellspring 3 Krark-Clan Shaman 2 Lembas 1 Mountain 1 Nihil Spellbomb 2 Nyxborn Hydra 1 Pulse of Murasa 4 Refurbished Familiar 4 Slagwoods Bridge 1 Suffocating Fumes 3 Swamp 2 Toxin Analysis 1 Troll of Khazad-dûm 4 Twisted Landscape 2 Vault of Whispers 4 Writhing Chrysalis Sideboard 1 Breath Weapon 2 Cast Down 4 Duress 1 Flaring Pain 1 Gorilla Shaman 1 Krark-Clan Shaman 2 Pyroblast 1 Toxin Analysis 2 Weather the Storm

The other deck I wanted to talk about today is Jund Wildfire. Another strategy enabled by the Bridges from Modern Horizons 2, Jund Wildfire is a more true midrange deck that leans hard on artifact synergy. Previous iterations went with Bleak Coven Vampires or Avenging Hunter as a top end, but the latest builds tend to end on Writhing Chrysalis. The build featured above also pairs a sweeper – Krark-Clan Shaman – with Toxin Analysis for a way to clear the ground and gain a ton of life. This build also has Nyxborn Hydra as a way to win the game late while all the best “metalcraft” cards in black and red. This deck is less flexible than Dimir Faeries as it lacks counterspells but if games come down to board presence this seems like a good choice. All that being said I would not be so bullish on Jund Wildfire next weekend due in no small part to the strength of Dimir Faeries.

Where does that leave things heading into next weekend? Terror decks, Grixis Affinity, and Kuldotha Red are not going anywhere and we can count on Dimir Faeries making its presence felt. While Jund Wildfire may not be able to keep pace there are some reasons to believe that Broodscale Combo will continue to take up a decent amount of the metagame. I would want to be a Snuff Out deck that could leverage Gurmag Angler (to avoid other copies of Snuff Out) while also having access to a way to survive early attacks. Bleak Coven Vampire is a bit of a risk and Vampire Sovereign may just be too slow and leaning into cards like Lone Missionary might be necessary, if a bit uninspiring. Is it time for Orzhov Gates to shine? Probably not but it is nice to dream.

There’s a larger story at play here that is starting to come into focus. While a lot of the discourse in Pauper enters around the strength of the red deck, the format is largely defined by its ability to answer threats. Thanks to cards like Nuxborn Hydra and Writhing Chrysalis we are seeing more decks run creatures that are more or less just big bodies that come with built in resilience. This is important to keep in mind as stopping the first wave might no longer be enough and having the biggest blocker standing could be all that stands between a win and a loss.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, you can sign up for my Patreon starting at just $1.

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October 25-27 Pauper Weekend Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

How do you make sense of a small sample size?

When looking at any data set it is important to understand how large the source of your information is in reality. A Top 8 might be flashy but it is hardly significant in the grand scheme of things. Similarly, a deck performing well in a single tournament might mean it was particularly well positioned on that day or it could indicate something greater. A whole weekend’s worth of events could start to tell a story and a season with the same card file could maybe finish it.

None of these are actually significant. The sheer number of matches that would need to be played to draw remotely concrete conclusions is likely more than Magic Online could support in a single event. Leagues are likely a better source of such information but beyond a list of decks that went undefeated we are not privy to a more complete picture.

Pauper’s current blind spot is compounded with the recent trend of smaller Challenge fields. While a single event may not provide reliable and repeatable results, a seven round affair gives us a better idea of what is actually going on than one that lasts only six rounds. When trying to discern the “truth” to a format, variance is the enemy and while any one can win six coin flips in a row, the more times the quarter spins in the air the more likely it is the result ends up split over time. The Duskmourn trend of Challenges with fewer than 64 players means each event provides less reliable data.

This is part of the reason why we are seeing such wild swings in the results from week to week. Kuldotha Red was one of the best decks for the first three weeks of the season but took a massive step back in week four. Last weekend the deck had several 2-4 finishes which brought down its result. The strategy performed about a full win worse than the average Top 32 deck over the October 25-27 tournaments. Clearly this does not mean the deck is bad (small sample size, remember?) but it does conform to the recent trends we have seen.

What is a trend, then? When we look at the data and can infer something that may be happening, and then that inkling is seemingly confirmed in outcome, that is a trend. These are not necessarily statistical certainties – although they may bear out that way – they are far easier to see from week to week than trying to determine the best deck in the format (according to the numbers). If you have been reading this series for any length of time you will no doubt understand that I deal heavily in trends. This is because trends are reasonable to parse. I can present charts week after week and say that Red might have had a good showing but decks that traditionally do well against it are on the rise.

All that being said I would not have put Golgari Fog as having the best showing last weekend. The strategy had only four Top 32 appearances but converted three of those to the Top 8. Golgari Fog held 4.17% of the Top 32 metagame but more than doubled that in the Winner’s Metgame with 9.28% of that share. In smaller fields Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement is a less accurate representation of relative strength but a weekly score of 3.34 is still impressive. For comparison the next best deck by this metric was Grixis Affinity with a score of 3.2

Golgari Fog is a control deck built to last. The entire conceit here is to survive long enough to start looping spells with Campfire and slowly kill your opponent, whether it is with a Basilisk Gate enhanced Khalni Garden token, multiple activations of Crypt Rats, or removing the final cards of your opponent’s library with Stream of Thought. The deck is highly redundant but even so it only has a few ways to survive to full enact its plan – the pair of Campfire. While not the most popular archetype this deck has been on the rise over the past few weeks in part due to its ability to stymie aggressive strategies.

What was more anticipated, however, was the rise of Tolarian Terror decks. Given the recent push of Basking Broodscale decks, having access to Counterspell is rather important in the given moment and the three main Tolarian Terror decks – Blue Terror, Dimir Terror, and Izzet Control – are all able to best leverage the Alpha stalwart. Terror decks can use their counters to either stop an opposing game plan early or keep the adversary from establishing a foothold while already facing down an army of 5/5 monsters. Combined these three decks had 21 appearances in the Top 32 with six total Top 8s. All decks also had positive aMSARs – Blue Terror with 0.50, Dimir Terror with 1.52, and Izzet Control with 0.65. All told Tolarian Terror decks accounted for around 27.5% of the Winner’s Metagame.

Reading the trend lines, next week should be about beating Terror. Grixis Affinity and Kuldotha Red are not going anywhere but finding a way to survive while not rolling over to Terror and friends will be key to success. Mono White Aggro might be able to find a lane but I would be looking for Basilisk Gate decks that are more assertive than the standard CawGate affair. Alternatively Gruul Ramp could make headway, especially if it can find a way to effectively cast Swirling Sandstorm without trashing its own board.

Trends are important when preparing for Magic events. However the recent announcement regarding six Standard releases a year may confound this issue. Pauper moves slowly and it can often take a month or more for the impact of new non-Horizons sets to materialize. Moving forward it might be that once a trend emerges we are already going to be preparing for the next influx of game pieces. Now given that these cards are aimed at both Limited and Standard it is unlikely Pauper is going to be getting too many cards that upset the apple cart but if another Thraben Inspector shows up it might be hard to fully comprehend what that means before the next Reckless Impulse arrives. All that being said I am cautiously optimistic for the influx as it could mean support for otherwise fringe favorites.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, you can sign up for my Patreon starting at just $1.

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Treasured Finds: Hakim, Loreweaver

Do any of your Commander decks have a story? Do they have a “why” of their existence?

Part of me wonders if this is something the format has lost since its explosion in popularity. It is not that people cannot have a reason behind their choice of deck, but the tales around them feel far less personal through no fault of the pilot. I started playing Commander in earnest before the proliferation of possible Legends and as a result there were often sideways choices made for the Command Zone. The volume of words written and videos filmed were far less so more information was shared by word of mouth or cards on the battlefield. But this isn’t the story of a deck made in the first half of the 2010s but one far more recent. 

This is the story of my Hakim, Loreweaver deck.

I started putting this deck together sometime between August 2017 and April 2018. I know the timeframe because we had just moved into an apartment in anticipation of our son, who would come to join us that March. I have distinct memories of pulling the cards that would become Hakim in the bedroom over the course of several days. All manner of blue cards for an attempt to subvert expectations. But perhaps not in the way one would think.

The cards removed from my various longboxes were retrieved with the idea of combining Archetype of Imagination with Aboshan, Cephalid Emperor. It was a different time and the thought of sending various blue creatures to the skies and playing politics with my opponent’s combat steps with my Commander seemed delightful. It did not matter that there was not a ton of Cephalid support for Aboshan’s first ability (this was well before the Octopus errata, mind you), I was coming prepared with cards like Illusionist’s Bracers and Pemmin’s Aura to get multiple uses out of his Icy Manipulator.

Archetype of Imagination ensnared its namesake from me. I adored the idea of resolving this six drop and winning in one fell swoop. Gravitational Shift would amplify my army while insulating me from attack. Windreader Sphinx would draw me a ton of cards. I could even use Auras like Stratus Walk and Spirit Away to go airborne if other key cards were missing. The piles of possibilities I started to assemble were filled with creatures with one of the oldest keyword abilities and auras that sent them to the clouds. One of these creatures was Hakim, Loreweaver.

I do not remember the exact moment I obtained my copy of Hakim. I have a distinct memory of getting a Mirage Starter Deck for Hannukah one year and I have a feeling that Hakim was in that box. It was a card that was added to my collection – not one I ever sought out to own. The copy I have is nicked at the corners from time spent in various holding cells. The fact that I still have this card is a bit of a miracle, not only because of twenty two years between acquisition and composition. When I moved to graduate school in 2008 I shipped my collection to my new apartment (along with my other belongings that did not fit in the car). Out of all the boxes shipped, one was lost – the one with the majority of my cards as well as most of my CDs – never to be seen again. Some of my old cards made it and thankfully Hakim (and a few other of my Commanders) completed their journey.

But back to 2017 or 2018. I remember looking at the stack of Auras I had accumulated – ways to encourage my opponent’s to send creatures at each other while accruing value via Flight of Fancy and the like – before taking another look at Hakim, Loreweaver’s novel of a text box. Something about the last line of the first ability stuck in my mind – Use this ability only during your upkeep and only if there are no enchantments on Hakim. A quick trip to Scryfall confirmed my suspicion. Alongside the Oracle text there was a ruling from 2004: You only check if he has no Auras when activating the ability. You can use the ability multiple times in response to each other to get multiple Auras on him this way.

I scrapped my blueprint and started anew.

I set aside Aboshan and the vast majority of cards that cared about flying and instead focused on building something else that could subvert expectation. A mono blue deck aura based deck that won through Commander damage. Mono-Blue Aura Voltron. I had plenty of fodder for this as I had pulled apart my Bruna, Light of Alabaster deck a few months prior since it often played out the same game after game. I figured that by removing my access to white I would not only have more variety in my games but I would also have a more challenging puzzle to solve, which is one thing that keeps me excited about Commander.

Figuring out how to make decks work is part of what I enjoy about Commander. Taking a card and building towards it provides guidance while also forcing me to explore the nooks and crannies of card files for things that might just work. One reason I chafe at the newer crop of Legendary creatures is because they just get to do the thing. It’s the reason I pulled apart Bruna in the first place and why I tend towards Uncommons Commanders. The cards do not do the thing on their own but rather need the rest of the 99 to help with the lift. 

I have often described Hakim as my desert island deck. If I had to scale down to a single Commander and solely iterate on it for the rest of time it would be this one. Hakim synthesizes so many of the things I enjoy in Magic. I get to leverage old cards with new additions, I get to crash in for a ton of damage, I get to play with Auras, and pull things out of the graveyard. Sure it might not be in my preferred color identity (Pharika be praised), but it sure as heck plays like a Golgari deck. 

Now normally here is where you might expect to see a list of cards and a reasoning behind them. The deck, however, is already built and battle tested. The choices are there because I want them to be there and I enjoy how they play. That being said I am going to talk about a few styles of cards I look for every time a new set rolls out. 

The most obvious of these are Auras. Hakim cares about them and while blue versions that buff your creatures are not plentiful they do crop up from time to time. Most often these are Curiosity effects but often help with evasion – looking at you Infiltrator’s Magemark – but rarely provide the raw damage output of Auramancer’s Guise. I’m also always on the lookout for Auras that do something interesting on the battlefield (like Illusory Gains) or I can bring back from the graveyard and reuse (Volrath’s Curse). Enchantments that draw cards also are high on my list. 

In the creature department I want early plays that work with the gameplan. The best example of this is Malcolm, Alluring Scoundrel. Malcolm is evasive and carries Auras well while also putting cards into the graveyard. Finally, Malcolm can also help me see new cards which is incredibly important. Stormchaser Drake fits this mold as well and I nearly wept tears of joy when Entity Tracker was spoiled.

There are two spell slots I tend to focus on regularly. The first are ways to clear the board. Engulf the Shore and Spectral Deluge are exactly what I want since they can leave my biggest threat behind the vast majority of the time. The other stripe are cheap instants that can keep my Commander alive. Slip Out the Back is ideal since phasing Hakim out takes all the Auras with him instead of forcing me to reinvest mana. Since my Commander is so expensive, anything that lets me save Hakim on the cheap is a welcome addition. 

Finally, lower on the list, are any cards that let me play politics. There is a small theme of messing with my opponent’s creatures with cards like Illusory Gains, Rootwater Matriarch, and the combination of Willbreaker with Shimmering Wings. Anything that lets me do this while remaining on theme at least earns some time in my preorder cart. 

Hakim, Loreweaver is what happens when infatuation takes hold. I had started with one concept but the allure of solving the riddle of this deck was too much to ignore. My favorite decks are those that are never complete and while Hakim might not get new toys with every set the drips I do get from Renton have kept me interested for the better part of a decade. Hakim’s story is well written but not even close to being over. 

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, you can sign up for my Patreon starting at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Post Script

I’m a senior in college and I’m counting down the days until graduation. Graduate school – and by proxy the rest of my life- looms large in the fall. My college girlfriend encourages me to submit an article about the game I spend so much time on to a website that takes open submissions. I have a reputation as a strong writer and decided to go for it. My article ends up on StarCity Games and I am elated.

Six months later I’m in graduate school and questioning everything about my career path. My site supervisor doesn’t seem to like me very much and isn’t giving me opportunities to do my assigned work or learn on the job. My college girlfriend now has an ex in front. I have no friends but I know about a website where I can write about Magic.

Seventeen years later I am sixteen years into my career in a position that the same site supervisor thought was a “wrong fit” for me. Happily married with a wonderful family, my tenure at ChannelFireball – the fourth website I’ve written for, has come to an end. 

I started my journey as a Magic writer on a lark. For about a year I had been heavily invested in the Pauper Deck Challenge on Magic Online. It was the spring of 2006 and the rest of my life was waiting across the threshold of graduating from college. I had a Master’s program all lined up and a rather light workload. I spent my days helping friends with their final papers. I had a reputation as a strong writer and a good editor. The fact I had been writing for years as part of my English (General Language and Rhetoric, major code 123) certainly helped hone my voice, but it all started with my dad.

My dad is a salesman and a musician. He and my mom still live in the house I grew up in and the basement is my dad’s workshop. It’s where his office is and where he endlessly tinkers with guitars, refurbishing them and getting them “just right.” It’s also where his library used to be because in addition to those things my dad is a voracious reader and would often come home from work trips with another dime store paperback to add to his collection. His library was where I first learned about Roger Zelazny and the world of Amber; where I first saw the art of Steve Ditko and the tales of Dr. Strange shrunk down to the size of a large index card. 

When high school came around and I needed help editing my reports dad would come around with his red bic felt tip and tear me to absolute shreds. There was more than one project I worked on where I am positive the number of drafts produced by the family printer killed a small tree. I can remember at least one time where he made edits that I simply refused to make because I was tired and wanted to go to bed. Now he’ll occasionally read my articles and tell me how he doesn’t understand a word of it, but it’s clear I know what I’m talking about. 

Before high school my dad would pick me up after Friday Night Magic. I would take the subway to Neutral Ground and play sealed deck. Occasionally I would do okay but more often than not I was just there to sling cardboard and be around the store. I became one of the many “little kids” that were known in the store. At some point in the evening I would go to the payphone in the back and ask dad to come pick me up. He would drive into Manhattan from Brooklyn, find a parking spot outside and one in the shop where he would read a book until I was ready to go home.

None of this would have happened if not for him. I love you dad.

I was fortunate to have grown up during the height of written Magic content. Not only were there a ton of places to read about the game, but the prose was so varied. There was high theory and foundational concepts sharing the masthead with John Friggin’ Rizzo. Authors had freedom to link all manner of nonsense in their pieces, from music to other more questionable subject matters. Some of these are best left in the past but there is an allure and a charm to those days beyond nostalgia.

It is very easy for me to look back and say that era was better. It’s harder to recognize that the current model benefits more people, albeit in a different way. Back then there were multiple websites but they only had so many slots for writers and they tended to go to people who had proven themselves in a very specific way – high level tournament success. I don’t need to tell you that back then the majority of writers were male presenting.Who knows how many voices we never heard because they couldn’t spike a PTQ? Now while the top flight opportunities are not as abundant we exist in an era where your access to a car and the East Coast of the United States matters far less than your skill. You no longer need to be a generalist who knows the right people – you can be a specialist who has a blog or a Patreon and has the chops and the ability to access Arena or Magic Online. We may have lost something but we have found a bigger world. After almost 15 years in the old world I find myself entering the current day and age.

There is a sense of freedom now. I no longer have deadlines, something I am sure my family will appreciate.

I met my now wife online. I had moved back to Brooklyn for a new job. Spending my first years after graduate school in the suburbs was hell on my social life. Many of my friends were entering the stable years of their life and I was largely on my own for building a new social network. After a few months of not much success I was going to give up on dating for a summer and decided on one final date. Turns out it was the last first date I ever went on. 

I didn’t hide that I was a gamer from her. She thought I meant video games and so when I started telling her about Magic it was clear she did not quite understand it (although she did try, looking up Crystal Shard and Chittering Rats). We’ll be married ten years in May and she never once complained when I had to break out the laptop on a vacation to try and finish an article or when I had to stay up late to meet a deadline. She still doesn’t understand the game but that doesn’t much matter. I love you Jaclyn.

Magic is special to me because it gave me a place to exist. Writing gave me a way to express myself. It was a digital third space for me, just like the punk and ska forums I frequented in college which have been absorbed by the omnipresence that is Reddit. The enshittification of the internet has fractured so many things but I hope that as long as there is Magic there is a way we can find each other and share our love for the game and what it means to us. 

Where does that leave me? I still have a lot to say about the game, whether it’s Pauper or Commander or something else. I was lucky that over the span of my career I was often afforded the opportunity to write about whatever I wanted, as long as it was related to Pauper. Editors often gave me assignments outside my wheelhouse and while some of them landed, quite a few didn’t. Still I managed to stay a digital ink stained wretch for a decade and a half. In other words, I’m not going anywhere but I am going to use my newfound temporal flexibility to try some new things. Maybe I’ll link to music videos, like I always wanted to, or work on longer form pieces. Perhaps I’ll help the next generation of writers or maybe I’ll just focus on nine-to-five a bit more.

Before I close this piece, here are some things I want to leave you with:

  • There’s no such thing as a guilty pleasure in music – like what you like and don’t apologize for it
  • Let’s (Fuckin’) Go Mets!
  • Fascists deserve to be punched
  • Look out for each other because sometimes we are all we have
  • Magic is for everyone

And now, in the grand tradition of my forebearers, some props and slops

Props: Mom, Dad, Stacey, Jaclyn, Simon, the Pithy Drillers, Mike, Mike, Paige, Brian David-Marshall, Mike Flores, the Reverend Toby, The Ferrett, Joshua Claytor, Steve Sadin, Lauren Lee, Cedric Phillips, Adam Styborski, Evan Erwin, Huey Jensen, Reid Duke, James Keating, Emma Partlow, Corbin Hosler, Gavin and my colleagues on the Pauper Format Panel, the entire Fat Cat EDH crew, the judges and scorekeepers who made my coverage gigs a delight, anyone and everyone who took the time to read my articles and reach out with some kind words

Slops: Anyone who has ever made anyone uncomfortable in any Magic space. Kindly fuck entirely off

“Well so, we keep on/No one else to blame, going down in flames/Saw it coming all along”

The First Four Weeks of Duskmourn

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

We’ve been trapped in the haunted house that is Duskmourn for just about a month and, just like the villain in a horror franchise, Kuldotha Red has reemerged to terrorize the metagame. Can anything be done to escape this house of horrors?

Let’s start by breaking down some of Kuldotha Red’s numbers. The deck has half of the Challenges in Duskmourn season (this counts the October 12 Qualifier as a different tournament) and has almost 27% of all Top 8s during this season (this is inclusive of the October 12 Qualifier). After an abysmal performance over the October 18-20 weekend where it actually performed worse than the average Top 32 deck (an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of -0.34), the deck closes out the first month of Duskmourn with an AMSAR of 0.90; just about one win better than the average Top 32 deck. Kuldotha Red has taken up 18.51% of the Top 32 metagame and 20.1% of the Winner’s Metagame. But this is only part of the story.

Out of the 28 Top 8 finishes, Kuldotha Red earned fully 24 of those in Challenges with under 60 participants. Out of the six wins, five of them came in Challenges with under 60 participants. As the field expands, Red’s ability to close out events appears to diminish. This correlation makes sense as longer events provide more opportunities for sideboard cards to have an impact and gives Red more opportunity to conform to its mean win rate which hovers around 50% in non-mirror situations.

This, then, prompts another question: why are Pauper Challenges so small these days? There are a number of external factors at play, from Daybreak altering the prize structure to other formats being exciting. Pauper has also been relatively stable since the release of Modern Horizons 3 with the top tier remaining largely unchanged for the past few set cycles. While there have been some shifts – such as the Gruul deck largely dropping land destruction – the top rungs of the meta ladder bear more than a passing resemblance to the same strata from August. The aftershocks of Modern Horizons 3 have abated and things have started to settle.

One thing that is interesting to note here is that out of all the decks in the format, Kuldotha Red remains the only one that is fast. I don’t mean that it is low to the ground (which it is) but rather its games by and large end quickly. Win or lose, Kuldotha Red’s games take less time than the other decks at the apex of the format. This temporal advantage appeals to a certain subset of players and given the combination of quick games and strength it makes sense that Red shows up a lot.

There is another potential explanation – that Red is actually as good as advertised. The deck’s popularity and strength could be part of the reason why it continues to put up numbers. The deck may be strong enough to fight through the copious amount of hate and still put up the results it has achieved this season. It is within the realm of reason that Clockwork Percussionist has pushed the strategy to another level.

Where does the truth reside? Likely somewhere in between. Kuldotha Red is probably better than it’s Bloomburrow performance where it was the fifth best deck in Pauper but it also isn’t as strong as it looks in Duskmourn season. Time, of course, will tell but until then we have to operate in a world that death may come in a flurry of fire at any moment.

Duskmourn Power Rankings (through October 20)

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October 11-13 Pauper Weekend Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

The first step to solving a problem is identifying if one exists in the first place. If you’ve been following this blog for Duskmourn season you will no doubt know that until this point I did not believe that Kuldotha Red presented a real problem in the Pauper metagame. The truth of the matter is that I still do not feel this way, but my conviction in the matter is not nearly as strong. As always when presented with new information I tend to reevaluate my positions and this past weekend provided a slate of new data to examine and explore.

There are a few things to note about the weekend of October 11-October 13. First is that in addition to the three Challenges there was a Pauper Qualifier – a feeder tournament for the Pro Tour system. The second thing to note is that the Saturday Challenge – which had 42 total players – ran concurrently with the Qualifier. Five of Kuldotha Red’s Top 8 finishes on the weekend and one of its wins all came in this smaller Challenge. I point this out because Kuldotha Red is a fairly easy deck for Double Queuing – that is play in two tournaments simultaneously. Two of the players who made Top 8 in the Challenge on Saturday with Red also played the deck in the Qualifier (with one making Top 8 there as well).

This context is important. In aggregate red demolished the field. A Win+ Average better than 1 puts the deck’s average finish firmly in the Top 16. Kuldotha Red’s eleven Top 8 finishes over the weekend are nearly two better than could be expected given its overall results. The strategy held 21.88% of the Top 32 metagame and improved on that nearly five percent to 26.84% of the Winner’s Meta. Rounding this all out, Kuldotha Red finished the weekend with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.4, nearly a win and a half better than the average Top 32 deck and over a full win better than the next tier of strategies.

But there’s more. The Pauper Challenge Project, as communicated by Kirblinxy collected information that showed Kuldotha Red had a better than 60% non-mirror win rate in the three Challenges over the weekend. This, combined with the rather alarming numbers overall, should be cause for alarm. If you have gotten to this point and have read my articles before, I am sure you can expect a twist.

Saturday, October 12 Pauper Qualifier Top 32

The same Pauper Challenge Project collected data on the Qualifier where Kuldotha Red had a sub-45% non-mirror win rate. That is a marked difference from the dominant performance alluded to in the other data. The deck accounted for 23.74% of the entire field in the Qualifier as opposed to 20.13% of the entire Challenge meta on the weekend, with more Red players participating in the Challenge than in all three Challenges combined. The larger data set provides a different picture of Kuldotha Red – one that is just as popular but possibly less dangerous overall.

All of this being said I am more concerned about Red’s role in the metagame today than I was a week ago. The popularity of the strategy, combined with its sustained success is cause for additional attention. A 60% non-mirror win rate over a weekend is an eye popping stat, but if its lightning in a bottle that’s very different than sustained success. As it stands today, Kuldotha Red is leading the way in Duskmourn season with a cumulative Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.1 where no other deck has a score above 0.3. If Red is able to sustain this clip then it might be time for a different course of action. For now I am still of the mindset that the format can adjust for the red shift.

There are two decks that cropped up I wanted to discuss. The first is this Boros Heroic build that made the Top 32 in the Friday Challenge.

2 Akroan Skyguard 4 Ancestral Anger 3 Benevolent Blessing 3 Boros Garrison 3 Defiant Strike 1 Emerge Unscathed 4 Ethereal Armor 4 Hyena Umbra 4 Lagonna-Band Trailblazer 3 Mountain 2 Mutagenic Growth 8 Plains 3 Satyr Hoplite 4 Sentinel's Eyes 1 Spirit Link 4 Sticky Fingers 3 Tenth District Legionnaire 4 Wind-Scarred Crag Sideboard 1 Emerge Unscathed 3 Gods Willing 2 Gut Shot 2 Mutagenic Growth 3 Spirit Link 4 Temur Battle Rage

I like what this deck is trying to do. Tenth District Legionnaire is the kind of card worth stretching your mana base for and the additional card flow provided by Ancestral Anger – as well as its ability to punch through for extra damage – could be well worth the decrease in consistency. While I understand Sticky Fingers it feels a bit optimistic here as the Aura does not really do much for helping in combat. I wonder if this deck could make use of a few copies of Turn Inside Out as it would have little problem turning Manifested creatures face up. If that were the case it would probably need to up the threat count or find a way to include more graveyard synergy.

2 Ancient Den 2 Bojuka Bog 3 Cast Down 3 Deadly Dispute 4 Glint Hawk 2 Goldmire Bridge 1 Kabira Crossroads 4 Kor Skyfisher 4 Lembas 4 Novice Inspector 3 Obscura Storefront 1 Okiba-Gang Shinobi 2 Omen of the Dead 1 Orzhov Basilica 4 Plains 4 Refurbished Familiar 1 Suffocating Fumes 3 Swamp 2 Thraben Charm 4 Thraben Inspector 4 Tithing Blade 2 Vault of Whispers Sideboard 2 Arms of Hadar 3 Duress 4 Dust to Dust 3 Snuff Out 3 Trespasser's Curse

The other deck I wanted to point out is this Orzhov Blade list that made Top 8 on Sunday. This is the kind of deck that can really find its lane once the metagame has started to settle. Orzhov Blade has the ability to go toe-to-toe with assertive strategies by chucking blockers into play. The Kor Skyfisher – Omen of the Dead loop provides a decent long game plan. I would be somewhat concerned about the mana cost of Cast Down in such an aggressive metagame but I am not sure any deck can easily afford to max out on Snuff Out in the moment. If there is one card I am eyeing for this build it is Carrot Cake for its ability to put blockers on the board while also providing a small life bump in dire straits.

If I were to play in next weekend’s events I would likely be on some form of Orzhov Blade. While I would not be sure on Carrot Cake I would almost certainly be looking to include some number of Extract a Confession. Blue Terror and Dimir Terror both had solid showings last weekend and given the continued presence of Kuldotha Red in the metagame it would not surprise me of Bogles made a run at some Top 8s. In both instances having access to a more curated Edict effect could work wonders, especially if your game plan is built around incremental advantages.

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October 4-6 Pauper Weekend Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

I am not going to bury to lede this week: Kuldotha Red had the best weekend. The assertive strategy had a dozen Top 32 appearances and converted that to five Top 8s and a pair of wins. It had an average finish firmly in the Top 16 and held 14.51% of the winner’s meta share (an increase of 2% over general Top 32 volume). Its Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.02 put it about a win clear of the mean Top 32 finish for the weekend.

Why put this above the fold? Because, as discussed elsewhere, Kuldotha Red occupies an outsized portion of the discourse around Pauper. There are datasets where the deck looks fantastic on the surface but under performs (like the weekend of September 27) and then there are tournament sets like last weekend where the deck is just as good as it looks by the numbers. Red is a good deck to be sure but it is hardly a dominant force.

What, then, is the difference between something being dominant and a deck being a part of a healthy metagame? What role does Kuldotha Red serve? Formats need a Clock – that is a deck that puts a limitation on the amount of nonsense in which one can engage. This is neither good nor bad but rather a feature of competitive metagames. Without decks that can establish parameters it can become difficult to craft a strategy that can navigate a tournament. Here we find the crux of the difference between competitive formats and social ones. It is entirely possible to play social Pauper where you concoct a contraption out of commons, yet if that deck cannot operate within the very real parameters of the competitive metagame it exists on a parallel track.

A dominant deck, on the other hand, is one that takes up an outsized portion not only of the metagame as it exists in results but the metagame as it exists as a thought experiment around the format. If the first, last, and only consideration one would have when building a deck and sideboard is a specific meta deck then there may be a problem. Similarly if an interaction or suite of cards starts to create a similar monopoly of thought then perhaps additional investigation might be warranted. Currently I do not believe that Kuldotha Red rises to this level.

Now you might be asking yourself about the Bridges. These cards have earned a level of notoriety. These lands have changed the way other decks have had to approach Affinity while also serving as the backbone for one of the best card draw engines in the format. The Bridges have become part of the landscape of Pauper in a way that they support multiple strategies, often enabling decks that might otherwise struggle. At the same time it is hard to ignore the impact they have had. The question that exists today is whether or not the rest of the format has risen to the power band or remains too far behind to reasonably keep up.

Today I want to look at one list I believe supports the former statement. Golgari Fog is an emergent strategy that blends elements of Golgari Gardens with Turbo Fog to present a deck that can wring out a victory in the long game.

1 Basilisk Gate 4 Black Dragon Gate 1 Bojuka Bog 2 Campfire 3 Crypt Rats 1 Darkness 4 Deadly Dispute 3 Eviscerator's Insight 1 Fanatical Offering 2 Fog 2 Forest 1 Golgari Rot Farm 4 Heap Gate 1 Heaped Harvest 3 Ichor Wellspring 3 Khalni Garden 4 Lembas 3 Manor Gate 4 Moment's Peace 1 Nadier's Nightblade 2 Reckoner's Bargain 1 Respite 1 Retrofitted Transmogrant 1 Stream of Thought 3 Swamp 2 Tangle 2 Weather the Storm Sideboard 4 Basking Broodscale 1 Nadier's Nightblade 4 Pyroblast 4 Sadistic Glee 1 Stream of Thought 1 Weather the Storm

Golgari Fog is a midrange control deck that leans on the Deadly Dispute package to keep cards flowing. It leans into Gates as well to provide a win condition in Basilisk Gate and a steady stream of material through Heap Gate. Campfire (and in this build Stream of Thought) provide additional insurance on the library count and this version continues the innovation of including the Broodscale Combo in the sideboard for a juke. In my opinion the relatively strong positioning of this deck indicates a healthy metagame.

Golgari Fog is constructed with two different poles in mind. It wants to survive the early game onslaught of small creatures and does so with various Fog effects. It also is prepared for decks that want to drag the game out with copies of Campfire to recycle its resources – and exhaust those of the opponent – in something that feels extremely Golgari. The deck is evocative of the control decks of yore with scant few actual win conditions – we’re talking a single Basilisk Gate here – and simply wants to grind your opponent’s will to keep playing into dust.

Looking ahead to next week I would come prepared to Kuldotha Red first but Jund Broodscale is not that far behind. Dimir Terror also had a solid showing so having a reliable way to wipe the board early feels paramount, but you need to survive against those 5/5s in the midgame. If I were looking to go off script I’d be trying to find a way to make Swirling Sandstorm work but I would also keep my eye on Battlefield Scrounger, especially if I was set on playing something Golgari.

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September 27-29 Pauper Weekend Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Just in time for October (also known as Spooky Season for some reason), Pauper has entered its Duskmourn era. The first weekend of Magic Online Challenges proved to be scary for a number of reasons, not the least of which were the paltry number of participants in the Friday and Saturday tournaments. Barely breaking the threshold to launch, the first two Challenges in the latest cycle have confounded the data set just a bit. All told, 22 of the 96 Top 32 competitors (let me tell you how painful it is to write a sentence with so many sequential numbers) had losing records.

What does this mean? Largely that we cannot infer too much from the first dataset presented. Including the losing records does provide some insight, especially for popular decks that falter in that we can have a better idea of what happens outside a traditional winner’s metagame. If, for example, Grixis Affinity has a ton of decks in the Top 8 but also plenty of people piloting the strategy to 2-4 records we can’t draw any conclusions but it could mean that perhaps the deck is not the behemoth those Top 8s make it out to be.

We’re not going to be talking about Grixis today, however. Instead we are going to be talking about Kuldotha Red. The latest iteration of the red deck took down twenty Top 32 slots last weekend, good enough for 20.83% of the field. Eight Top 8 finishes and a win made it so Kuldotha finished with the second best overall performance at the end of Sunday. It did this with an average finish well outside the Top 16 and with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 0.35.

We also aren’t going to be talking about the best deck on the weekend. Bogles had three Top 8 appearances, and a win, in seven total trips to the Top 32. It had an average finish in the Top 8 and vastly improved on its raw Top 32 volume (7.29%) in winner’s meta share (26.78%) with a healthy adjusted meta score above replacement of 1.43.

So why are we talking about Kuldotha Red? Because this deck often becomes the center of attention early in a set’s cycle when it puts up some unhealthy looking rates of play. In a way we will be talking about Red, but also Bogles and Grixis. What we are we talking about, however, is interpreting small sets of information.

Bear in mind I am not a statistician. My background in analyzing data comes from the world of social sciences. In my day job I help to run the assessment initiatives for my department where we try to identify different areas of growth, learning, and participation in a college aged population. A tad different than Magic all told.

Kuldotha Red is an assertive strategy. It wants to play to the board early and press its advantage with small creatures. It can end the game with a massive attack or a furry of burn spells. Relatively recently (historically speaking), the deck has also gained access to solid card flow options, giving it the opportunity to keep pace in the middle stages of a game. The strategy has been hit by one ban – Monastery Swiftspear – and while not as potent as prior iterations, Kuldotha Red remains a top choice in Pauper.

It is also, in a way, metagame agnostic. While the specific inclusions at the fringes may change, the core of the deck is largely static. More than that, it does not have to adapt as much to the an otherwise changing field. Put another way, you do not always need to tech out Kuldotha Red in order for it to succeed as it is inherently powerful, albeit susceptible to the whims of the metagame. The ability to simply overrun your opponent before they can establish themselves is powerful and Kuldotha Red is quite good at that.

Whenever a new set enters Pauper (or any format really) had to adjust. Often times this means testing out new pieces for more intricate builds and trying to gauge what is going to happen in the wider metagame. Put another way people are trying out the latest cards. While things are still being defined, Kuldotha Red is a great choice in that it can, as mentioned, just win. For players who are grinding Leagues day after day Kuldotha Red also affords them the opportunity to learn the most in the shortest amount of time. The number of games you can play with Red likely outpaces nearly every other deck, all while giving a good rate of return on the investment of Play Points and time.

Early on, therefore, it follows that Red is going to be overrepresented. It is largely insulated from micro shifts in the metagame, wins quickly, and has an established pedigree. As time marches on the deck may get less popular (it is difficult to ascertain this with any confidence as we do not have the lists for every deck in the League) or the metagame adapts. It can still put up numbers but other decks are able to keep pace or surpass it in the results column.

How, then, can it be determined if Kuldotha Red is problematic? This decision cannot be made in the short term, regardless of how much the deck surges in the early part of a season. The early leagues for Bloomburrow had a strong showing of Kuldotha Red, with the deck hovering around 20% of the early League 5-0 lists. The same strategy had two weekends where it was the most popular Top 32 deck in the Challenges and another pair of weekends where it was second most popular (this includes a weekend where it was tied for second most popular). Over the eight weeks of Bloomburrow the deck did not hold true to that early surge and settled into a healthy spot – outside the very best decks in the metagame but still a solid contender. For those wondering, it held a seasonal adjusted meta score above replacement of 0.51 (about half a win better than the mean Top 32 deck) and had the eighth best average Swiss performance of all decks with at least 2% of the Top 32 metagame (16 appearances).

A decision cannot be made based entirely on early results nor can it wait for absolute certainty. Red has a short leash due to its pedigree but for now it simply seems to be a smart choice in a developing metagame. Sideboard accordingly.

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The Top 8 Decks of Bloomburrow Season

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Eight weeks, two dozen Challenges, and a whole lot of advanced stats. Check out my Bloomburrow season recap here.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, you can sign up for my Patreon starting at just $1.

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September 20-22 Pauper Weekend Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Sometimes the data set is confounding. Last weekend is a perfect example. The September 20-22 set of Challenges were the first to take place under the new payout system introduced by Daybreak. While the Saturday and Sunday events largely held true to their former attendance numbers, the Friday tournament barely crossed the starting threshold. The result was a Top 32 where several 1-X players “cashed”.

In the grand scheme of things – that is when I write my season recap – this one tournament will not have as large an impact on the information. But here it can have an outsized effect. The records serve to drag the worse decks down and make the strategies at the top of the standings seem slightly better than they may have been in actuality. Please keep that in mind when we examine the results.

Jund Broodscale was the best deck on the weekend. A baker’s dozen total Top 32 appearances with a nearly 50% conversion rate to the Top 8. The three color combo build amassed an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.43, clearing the next best strategy (Grixis Affinity) by over a third of a point. Broodscale Combo decks have asserted themselves as a healthy part of the metagame, giving players a way to go over the top while not dominating the format.

I want to take a moment to call out just how important a development this is in the Pauper metagame. While Broodscale might not appeal to a certain stripe of combo gamer – those that prefer casting spells to getting the job done with creatures – it does seek to win the game through an unbound loop. While other creature based combo decks have had their moment in the sun, including WonderWalls and Goblin Combo, Broodscale is resilient enough to put up consistent results while being vulnerable enough to not overtake the metagame. This is a delicate line to walk from a format management perspective as pushing too hard in either direction can cause a lot of trouble. Personally speaking it is refreshing to see a deck of this nature put up consistent results without crowding out other strategies.

The rise in Broodscale combo has given blue decks another shot in the arm. Removal can be effective if timed correctly but drawing the wrong piece of interaction against the combo deck can prove problematic. Counterspell has no such restrictions on what it hits and decks that can reasonably cast the spell have an edge in the current format. This can been seen in the sustained success of Blue Terror but also in the slim meta share of both Azorius Familiars and CawGate. These decks were well set up to use counters as a way to defend their plan in the late game, buying important time to turn the corner. This angle does not work as well when you are facing down a potential lethal lizard on turn three or four. Here a more proactive use of counter magic is applicable, which helps to explain the surge in blue decks Terrorizing the tables. A 0.44 aMSAR places Blue Terror third (behind Grixis Affinity) over the weekend with a health three Top 8s, including a win.

Where does this leave things going into Duskmourn? It is hard to say. The set is packed with interesting cards that might take some time to figure out. Early on, however, I would absolutely be focused on having a plan for Kuldotha Red. Clockwork Percussionist is another aggressive one drop that fits neatly into the strategy while also providing some card flow. Being able to feed the Monkey to a Kuldotha Rebirth to end up card neutral is a pretty big game, especially after it pecks in for a few points of damage. This is nothing new, of course, as assertive decks always have a leg up early.

Emerge from the Cocoon is not a traditional reanimation spell as you’re not going to be getting a steep discount. If, however, you can figure out a way to cast this ahead of curve, whether it is with a mana dork or other means, and get a large threat into play the extra three life could make up for how ponderous the card plays out. The problem, as always, is Pauper is full of Baneslayers (that is, stat monsters) and lacks Titans (big creatures that generate value). Is getting Avenging Hunter back from the graveyard better than casting it? I feel like we are going to find out in the first few weeks of the next season.

I wanted to take a moment to address something I made public yesterday. Due to a shift in content strategy, October will be my final month writing for ChannelFireball. It has been an amazing honor and privilege to write for CFB and I am grateful for the opportunity. I plan on continuing to write on this page, but the loss of my gig at CFB does represent a decent hit. If you have enjoyed my content over the years and would like to support my writing moving forward, please consider becoming a member through Patreon. Thank you for your consideration – I love being able to share my writing with folks and want to do it for as long as I have something to say.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, you can sign up for my Patreon starting at just $1.

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