NerdtotheCore

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

It’s finally here! Outlaws of Thunder Junction has hit Magic Online and with it we had our first look at the latest iteration of Pauper. And what a look we had – not only were there the four regular Challenges on the weekend but Saturday also gave us an eight round Showcase Qualifier. In the span of 72 hours there were five major Pauper events and with it we got a solid look at the metagame. Did my most recent Power Rankings hold up? We’ll have to see.

First, a few pieces of bookkeeping. This season I’ve made some updates to the way I classify certain archetypes. Boros Synth has now been split into Boros Glitters and Boros Synth, which is dependent on the presence of All That Glitters. Black Gardens is now Golgari Gardens while Madness Burn gets the more appropriate Rakdos Madness moniker. Finally, Orzhov Blade gets its own delineation from other black-white builds.

Okay, let’s get to the data. First up we have the overall Challenge Metagame.

Once again we see Pauper swinging back towards being more aggressive in the early going. Between the Showcase and the Sunday “Bonus” Challenge, Kuldotha Red was all over the place and ended up being the most popular archetype on the weekend. Some pilots decided to incorporate Reckless Lackey into their builds while others ignored the new card. A few players opted to add Goblin Grenade for additional closing speed. Kuldotha Red also ended up as the most popular deck in the Top 32 metagame and had the largest share of the Winner’s Metagame and did all of this while having the second best overall performance over the span of the five tournaments.

Kuldotha Red never really went anywhere but it also is far more vulnerable that it was before Monastery Swiftspear got the axe. Losing that additional dimension means the strategy has to lean harder on early aggression and try to get under the opponent’s defenses. Once the game hits the middle and late stages, however, other decks’ answers start to come online. One thing that happens time and time again is that as a new set his the scene aggressive decks succeed early before the rest of the format adjusts to the new pace of threats.

We see this trend continue with the strength of Boros Glitters. The second most popular deck across all the tournaments (and, spoilers, holding that position in the Top 32 metagame and Winner’s Metagame). The current “scourge” of the format has the ability to grind with Clues and other artifacts while also going over the top with All That Glitters. While popular the format seems to have adjusted somewhat to its presence – Boros Glitters ended the weekend with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 0.21 – the seventh best score on the weekend. From the performance of Kuldotha Red and Boros Glitters, as well as the provided lists, we can infer that decks were better situated to handle one large threat rather than several small creatures.

The chart above represents the Top 32 metagame and here we can see the strength of being on the beatdown plan in Pauper, at least early in Thunder Junction season. The two prominent Galvanic Blast decks were just under 26% of the total metagame but the same two decks were over 31% of the Top 32 metagame. The next five most popular decks (Golgari Gardens, Jeskai Ephemerate, CawGate, Dimir Faeries and Dimir Terror) were 28.7% of the entire metagame. In the Top 32 these five decks account for 23.7% of that field, but the Dimir duo lag behind Azorius Familiars, Bogles, Goblin Combo, and Turbo Fog in Top 32 presence.

Again we see the power of beatdown decks early in the metagame as other decks adjust to the new pacing of things. But if we look at the breakdown of the decks listed (those over 2% of the format over the weekend) we see a metagame that on the surface appears balanced between assertive decks and more controlling ones. The starkness of the numbers comes down to the fact that were are far fewer ways to succeed in attacking in Pauper than there are in slowing the game down. If you want to be anywhere on the spectrum from midrange to control you have several potential incentives. If you want to reduce your opponent’s life total as quickly as possible you have comparatively few choices which helps to exacerbate the presence of popular beatdown strategies.

This chart represents the Winner’s Metagame and here we see the first major shakeup – the rise of Goblin Combo. If you’ve been following my writing for the past few weeks you may have seen more digital ink spilled on this archetype than many others and that is because the strategy is coming back into its own. Goblin Combo had the best weekend as measured by Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement, ending the five event marathon with a score of 1.26; the next best score was 0.89 out of Kuldotha Red, which shows just how far ahead of the field Goblin Combo was on the weekend. Being able to largely ignore the interaction of the day – the kind focused on attacking creatures and burn spells – is a reasonable path to victory.

Goblin Combo can generate an unbound amount of mana due to the interaction of Skirk Prospector with First Day of Class and Putrid Goblin. The -1/-1 counter from Persist is negated by the +1/+1 counter from First Day of Class which creates an unbound loop. Once a Dark-Dweller Oracle is found the deck can then dig to Makeshift Munitions and win the game. The deck can struggle in metagames where graveyard hate is abundant but I am not sure if that trend will be coming next week. In the interim planning to ignore your opponent remains a good choice.

Turbo Fog is another deck that can just render an opponent’s game plan moot. The deck had a very respectable 0.43 aMSAR which is good for fourth best on the weekend. I feel out of all established Pauper decks this one might get the most out of Outlaws of Thunder Junction with the advent of Dance of the Tumbleweeds. A card that can fetch actual factual Desert while putting a ton of power and toughness on to the battlefield could be worth an inclusion, especially if people are going to keep attacking with tiny creatures.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

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We made it! Ten weeks of Murders at Karlov Manor Challenges on Magic Online are in the books and we are ready to turn the page to Outlaws of Thunder Junction. While the latest cards are sure to have an impact the chances of them completely upsetting the apple cart are slim. With my season Power Rankings coming out later this week today, as always, is going to be a look at the immediate future based on the most recent past.

Once again this chart represents the entire Challenge Metagame for the four events over the last weekend. It should not come as a surprise that Boros Synth is remains the most popular deck – it is a strong option that has the ability to get games over in a hurry. What is interesting is that this is the second week in a row where Kuldotha Red took the silver medal in that category. Also of note is that Black Gardens overtook Dimir Faeries in overall popularity, at least for one weekend.

If there is an overarching story this season it is one of finding the correct suite of threats. Kuldotha Red started the cycle strong before giving away to the Azorius build of Glitter Affinity. After a short stretch of that deck at the top of the heap Boros Synth overtook it. At various points over the course of the ten weeks we also saw Black Gardens, CawGate, Dimir Control and Dimir Faeries lay claim to “best deck” for a weekend. What can we extrapolate from these points of information in order to better inform our plans for the first weeks of Thunder Junction?

I think the best place to start is to put your foot on the gas. Despite the prevalence of controlling strategies that include black removal, assertive strategies have had an overall better season than reactive ones. Specifically all three of the “aggro” decks that have found success are ones that have enough reach to conceivably “win from nowhere”. Whether it is a goblin that gives you a power boost or an aura that acts as a force multiplier, these decks can not only soften up an opposing life total but then take it out in one fell swoop once the time is right. If you are trying to beat down next weekend keep this in mind – do you have that extra gear? If not you may want to reconsider your deck choice.

If you want to meet the aggression head on then your best bet is to be running black removal. Red’s removal is fine but it lacks black’s ability to simply kill on sight. Whether it is a forced sacrifice or a targeted effect, black is just better at making sure the creature goes to the graveyard. Black also has the advantage of being able to scale its board wipes thanks to cards like Crypt Rats, which means it can save a higher leverage removal spell for more robust threats. The Rats also clears the board so Tithing Blade and the like can go to work helps to keep black in the driver’s seat when it comes to handling threats.

It is this interplay of black removal, headlined by Snuff Out, and All That Glitters that currently defines the format. Black uses its life total as a resource but that includes Snuff Out and Crypt Rats. If black can stabilize, either through card draw or simply removing all threats then it can reasonable survive until it can turn the corner. On the other hand if black missteps then All That Glitters can come down and end the game in short order.

So what does threading that needle look like? If I had the answer I’d be winning a lot more of my matches. Last week saw a small bump in Orzhov Midrange and Turbo Fog, which have slightly different approaches for dealing with the format. The successful builds of Orzhov leaned on removal for sure, but also provided enough bodies to throw in the way of attackers. Turbo Fog is not a deck for everyone but it does the job of simply attempting to ignore combat altogether.

Then there’s CawGate. The deck continues to chug along, posting solid results. It also has the right mix of threats to get get around black’s removal while also having access to cards that can stall Glitter strategies. Prismatic Strands is a heck of a card but Standard Bearer can also put in work. The issue with CawGate is speed as it is deck that needs to take the first few turns at half speed, using tap lands and cards such as The Modern Age to set up a midgame power house. This provides aggressive decks a chance to get under and provides the black decks the opportunities to find removal.

It is possible, therefore, to look at Arbor Elf and Utopia Sprawl decks as a way to jump the curve. Gruul Cascade also saw a small uptick in strength over the weekend and while fragile these builds can be explosive. I think if you can solve the consistency issue then these builds, with their ability to accelerate to an endgame, could be a reasonable week one choice in the world of Thunder Junction.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

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Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Is a dynamic metagame – one where the best choices change from week to week – inherently healthy? Can a format be at its peak if things are static? This is one of the many questions being posed by Pauper at the moment. The impetus for this discourse is All That Glitters.

Let’s take a step backwards in time to before Monastery Swiftspear was banned. For the majority of the Swiftspear era in Pauper – that is the format between the Initiative Ban in September 2022 and the Swiftspear ban in December 2023 – red decks were a dominant force. While they may not have been the top performer every weekend they were by and large the consensus best deck. They not only defined the metagame but warped it around their presence.

I think now would be a good time to try and draw a line between defining a format and warping a metagame. These are not two discrete concepts but rather, in my estimation, exist on a spectrum. Flametongue Kavu defined its era of Standard by limiting the kind of creatures that could reasonably see play. Outside of curve based aggressive strategies, creatures had to have an immediate impact or have more than four toughness. You can see this pattern repeated in formats where Lightning Bolt is legal. Removal is not a perfect example as in larger card pools there are going to be a wide enough variety of spells that every creature will carry some liability. Various components come together to help define a metagame and format which help to provide a landscape, but the key here is that all of them help to establish parameters – it is not any one card or strategy that acts as a black hole, pulling everything towards its center.

Compare this to warping a format. In these situations the sheer force exerted by a strategy or card force it to the locus. At these times the offender is so powerful that the options are to either play it or play a deck that allegedly can smush it into the dirt. The Swiftspear era of Pauper was one where the confluence of cards that went into red made it such that you either ran Mountains or a build that was heavily skewed towards beating it. There have been times in Pauper’s past where the deck that was doing the warping was so powerful that ignoring it was a viable option, but you were doing so at your own peril.

So what does this all have to do with today? At the height of its power Kuldotha Red was the best deck week in and week out and it clearly defined the format and was warping things around its presence. Today, Glitter decks are one of the best decks in Pauper but have not consistently been at the top of the Weekend Challenge meta. There has been significant movement from one week to the next as to the top performer even if these decisions are made with All That Glitters in mind.

Above is the overall Challenge metagame summary from last weekend, including the newly added Friday Challenge. Here we see a shift from last weekend with Boros Synth (which for this season consists of decks that both include and eschew All That Glitters) taking over the top spot in popularity. The archetype also leads the way in Winner’s Metagame share with 16.07% and tops Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement for the week with a score of 1.55. This comes after a three week sequence where the top decks for each weekend were Black Gardens, Dimir Faeries, and Dimir Control, all after an impressive run by Azorius Glitter Affinity.

Here is an example of a dynamic metagame. There are core strategies that exist and different focal points (some with more gravity than others) that all work to construct the cycle of the format. Now, more than during the Swiftspear era, making the correct deck choice from week to week matters, and having the correct suite of threats and answers can have a positive impact. We can see this play out in the fringe decks that rise up, having correctly anticipated the shifts in the meta and threading the needle. In this way Pauper is healthy.

Yet at the same time one element of the metagame seems to hold more weight, at least in the discourse around the format. All That Glitters exerts a unique pressure on Pauper in that it is a threat that must be respected at all times. Once you believe the opponent is on the Aura every game action needs to be taken with this knowledge and thus the preservation of your life total. To me this is not a situation where All That Glitters it the black hole that sucks everything towards it but it certainly has more mass than other celestial bodies.

So is Pauper healthy? It depends on your definition. If you care about the variety of viable archetypes and a metagame that rewards correctly anticipating the shifting tides, then Pauper is in the best place it has been since before Modern Horizons 2 hit the scene. If your view of a healthy format includes metagame cores that are all relatively equal in strength then this iteration of Pauper leaves something to be desired. Having a threat define the format is not bad per se but when it becomes so important that other decks are pulled into its orbit, then maybe something is amiss.

Is that where Pauper is currently? Well, that depends on who you ask. But for now I wouldn’t leave home without cheap removal and interaction for a resolved copy of All That Glitters.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

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Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

The first four weeks of Murders at Karlov Manor season showed Pauper the strength of All That Glitters. After months of living under Monastery Swiftspear, the running sneaker was lifted from the format’s throat and things largely settled. Things were dynamic, at least in the early goings, until the weekend of March 2-3 where Glitter Affinity broke on to the scene in a big way. The strategy took 10 of the 24 possible Top 8 slots in the three Challenges while also going on to win the Qualifier event. All told 11 of the 32 Top 8 slots available went to Glitter Affinity.

Understandably this caused a ruckus. The format had just started to recover from the dominant stretch of red and All That Glitters represented a threatening damage engine. While it was slower and more fragile than Monastery Swiftspear, it had a form of haste and could turn any creature into a game ending attacker. This coupled with the cheap interaction available to the deck painted a target on its back. It was not long after that first weekend of March that the calls for a ban began to ring throughout the Pauper-sphere.

That is where these next four weeks begin – with Glitter Affinity at the height of its power. The above chart displays the total Challenge metagame – that is every deck entered into a Magic Online Challenge – over the weekends starting March 9-10 and ending March 30-31. Glitter Affinity – that is the Azorius build – made up 13.2% of the overall metagame. Boros Synth includes builds that also run All That Glitters, but at most that’s a bit more than half of those builds over the span. Sprinkle in 0.75% of the field running Jeskai Glitters and you end up with a most popular macro-strategy that clocks in at right around 16% of the total field for a month long span.

Behind Glitter Affinity there are a variety of decks including black based midrange in Black Gardens, a flash-control deck in Dimir Faeries, low to the ground aggro in Kuldotha Red, and blue-white “tap-out” control in CawGate. The last month saw solid competitive variety in the Challenge metagame but the specter of Glitter Affinity loomed large. Being forced to play around the aura represented a new play pattern, one that was largely resilient to what Pauper had been presenting.

Think about Rancor. Rancor represented significant damage output over time thanks to its ability to come back from the graveyard. During its heyday there were absolutely better targets for Rancor, including Skarrgan Pit-Skulk and Silhana Ledgewalker, but slapping it on a Nettle Sentinel or a Nest Invader could get the job done. All That Glitters trades the long game for more immediate pressure and while Ornithopter and Gingerbrute might be the best ones to wear the shiny mantle, Thraben Inspector and Novice Inspector will do in a pinch. Unlike Stompy, Glitter decks can draw to their damage engine with ease and deploy several in a single turn. It is the combination of aura-as-threat and the low barrier to getting it into play that upset the established lanes of the format.

We start to see a different picture when we look exclusively at the make up of the Top 32 finishers. Glitter Affinity still is the most popular, but takes a small step back. Dimir Faeries leapfrogs Black Gardens while Kuldotha Red remains consistent. CawGate also ticks up a bit but stands pat in the fifth position.

There are a few ways to look at this. The first (and perhaps most obvious) is that Dimir Faeries has been an incredibly popular deck over the past two weeks. However part of the reason it may be popular is because it presents a counterweight to Glitter decks. Dimir has access to removal and countermagic in enough volume to answer the biggest threats out of Glitter Affinity. Dimir Faeries can sit back and play a Flash game with Spellstutter Sprite before going on the offense, all while hitting land drops and setting up haymakers in the form of Murmuring Mystic or Thorn of the Black Rose. Dimir Faeries is set up to prevent Glitter from the line described above of casting multiple auras in a single turn.

Is this enough? That’s hard to say. If a deck can help keep Glitter in check, then what about the other options? That Dimir Faeries is able to do this does not mean All That Glitters is healthy to have in the format (not does it prove the opposite, to be clear). Can other decks succeed against Glitters is the real key. Given what we laid out above it is plausible. At the same time, is it acceptable if part of the counterplay involves a mechanic largely limited to a single color in countermagic?

There are other options available. Cards like Dispeller’s Capsule, Cathar Commando, or Seal of Primordium can come down and prevent an All That Glitters from sticking. There are other Disenchant style effects as well that could stifle Glitter decks. This is to say nothing of simply cutting the creature out from underneath the aura. These angles are about keeping Glitters in mind during deck construction and the games themselves. And the format has started to see the results of people doing just that, if the Winner’s Metagame is any indication.

The Winner’s Metagame looks at the Top 32 for each Challenge. It takes into account the Swiss performance and the total of all wins less all losses for an archetype. These are weighted based upon share of the Top 32. All together this provides an impression of what to expect at the top of the metagame. Here we can see that over the past month Dimir Faeries has had the largest share of the Winner’s Meta. Glitter Affinity also loses a bit more than a percentage point from its overall presence, which could indicate that people are adjusting their game plans to better fight the machine menace.

Comparing to the first four weeks (which had some confounding data due to a corrupted set of week one Challenges) we can see a fairly stark difference. Glitter Affinity ended the first month of Karlov Manor season with 15.92% of the Winner’s Metagame while Dimir Faeries lagged behind at 5.53%. Faeries is nothing if not malleable and by making small adjustments (as well as other shifts in the metagame), the strategy has been able to climb back to the top of the heap.

Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement gives us another look at how well different strategies are performing in relationship to one another. During the first month Glitter Affinity was lapping the field with an aMSAR of 2.22 while the next best deck – Kuldotha Red – came in with a score of 0.61. The leader over the second four weeks is Dimir Faeries with a more reasonable score of 1.37. While Faeries has a clear lead, the next cluster is not as far behind: Glitter Affinity with 0.78, Black Gardens and CawGate both with 0.68, Boros Synth with 0.5. All of this points to a metagame that is less polarized that it appeared after that one week in early March.

Pauper is, in many ways, stable. That is not to say things are stagnant or static but rather the meta is established. The top decks are largely known and from week to week adjustments in game plan and composition are rewarded. The aMSAR leader for each week of the last month cycled between four strategies – Glitter Affinity, Black Gardens, Dimir Faeries, and Dimir Control.

None of this, however, takes away from the pressure All That Glitters exerts on the format. It is the preeminent threat and, as discussed earlier, can create situations that force the opponent in a reactive state from the get go. This has continued the trend that began with Modern Horizons 2. From Chatterstorm and pre-ban Affinity to Relay Storm to Kuldotha Red, for nearly three years Pauper has been a format more defined by offense than defense. As things begin to settle we return to the old adage made famous (perhaps apocryphally) by David Price: there are no wrong threats, only wrong answers. Whereas in the past a deck could get by simply by having an overwhelming endgame and a decent mix of removal spells, Pauper now demands adjusting to whatever the big bad of the week might be. Whether it’s an Aura or Gurmag Angler or a horde hasty goblin tokens, it is incumbent to make the right choices for what you expect to meet across the table. In other words, a failure to prepare is preparing to fail.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

If Glitter Affinity lost a step last week, it decided to take a nap on the side of the road as the world passed it by this past weekend. The trend that began three weeks ago continued as the most recent format terror came crashing back down to earth. For context, the weekend of March 2-3 saw Glitter affinity with 34.67% of the Challenge Winner’s Metagame (this exclude’s that weekend’s Qualifier) with an adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.55. Fast forward to March 9-10 and Glitter Affinity had 27.03% of the winner’s metagame with an aMSAR of 1.06. March 16-17 saw that number tumble further to 13.87% of the winner’s meta and an aMSAR score of 0.55. Last weekend, the deck cratered to 4.55% of the winner’s meta with an aMSAR of -0.12. The strategy went from setting the pace of the field to performing worse than an average Top 32 deck.

Let’s start at the top with Kuldotha Red. This powerhouse had fallen on hard times as Glitter took the top spot in the metagame, but as Affinity has fallen, Red has risen. Part of this is due to a small shift in sideboarding that has brought both Gorilla Shaman and Smash to Smithereens back into focus. These cards fight Glitter Affinity on different axes and also represent two different philosophies when it comes to attacking the meta.

Smash to Smithereens is not the most efficient artifact destruction spell. It lacks the versatility of Cast into the Fire or the cost of Smelt. What it does do, however, is work perfectly with Kuldotha Red’s overall strategy. Even if it targets an indestructible land the damage still gets through so in a less than ideal scenario the card still does work. More than that it does exactly what the deck wants to be doing. Compare this to a card like Dust to Dust which rarely has synergy with a game plan. Instead of taking a turn off to potentially have an impact, Smash to Smithereens will always do something. While Kuldotha Red is not in the market for a below-rate Lava Spike having access to one that will occasionally knock an Ornithopter out of the sky does not hurt.

Gorilla Shaman is everything Dust to Dust aspires to be. While it fails at hitting creatures and the Bridges it can easily pick off the Mirrodin artifact lands while also hitting those all important Clue tokens and copies of Springleaf Drum. Glitter Affinity is a mana hungry deck and in the early turns it is often creating material that it cannot protect. The Mox Monkey can come down and start chewing through artifacts which in turn makes it harder for Glitter to stick to the plan. Gorilla Shaman also demands an answer or else it keeps doing work. Compare this to Dust to Dust which works for a single turn and has no persistent impact beyond the card text.

So what decks capitalized on Glitter’s fall? Kuldotha Red was the most popular strategy in the both the Challenges and the Top 32 metagame, but was second in Winner’s Meta share with 12.49% and fell outside the top four of aMSAR scores with 0.31. The best deck on the weekend goes to Dimir Faeries with an impressive 19.65% of the winner’s metagame and a stellar aMSAR score of 2.36 (for those of you keeping score, this is better than any one weekend of Glitter Affinity over the past month). One potential reason for this surge might have to do with Extract a Confession, which helps to shore up Dimir’s weakness against singular large threats in decks that can dodge a Chainer’s Edict.

Next week should be interesting for Pauper. I do not see a world where Glitter Affinity turns on a dime and comes back strong. Nor do I see a continued surge in Kuldotha Red. Rather I think Boros Synth decks that are packing All That Glitters put their stamp on the format in a big way. These builds can see a ton of cards and if they move in on Seeker of the Way have the ability to pile on the damage in ways that make Galvanic Blast blush.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

At the end of last week’s update I wrote that Glitter Affinity should be at the forefront of your mind if you are preparing for a Magic Online Pauper event these days. Last weekend’s results seem to indicate that the Pauper playing population agrees. While Glitter Affinity remained the most popular deck in the Challenges (27 total appearances), it dipped from 20.4% overall volume last week to a far more reasonable 15.8% this last weekend. On the surface it appears that Affinity continues to experience success, albeit at a reduced rate. And with three Top 8s to its credit over the three challenges that would appear to be the case. But regular readers are sure to note that the way I wrote this paragraph indicates that Affinity maybe, just maybe, has lost a step.

And a step is exactly what it appears to have lost. Glitter Affinity saw a drop from 15.8% of the overall field to 14.58% of the Top 32 metagame and then another drop to 13.87% of the winner’s metagame. The decline is not drastic and while it is potentially in line with the overall presence it does seem to indicate that folks came prepared to take Affinity down a peg. And looking at some of the results it all comes down to Turn Aside.

After sideboarding Glitter Affinity has access to the full four copies of Metallic Rebuke and usually two or three copies of Turn Aside. Having up to seven (effectively) one mana counterspells can make removing threats difficult. However the meta has adjusted in its answers. The number of copies of Defile in Black Gardens has gone up, allowing the deck to maneuver to a point where a removal spell will get the job done. Boros Synth made a dent in the Top 32 and between Journey to Nowhere and Makeshift Munitions, they are able to sidestep the protection offered by Turn Aside.

This is part of a dynamic metagame and frankly, it’s awesome to see in Pauper. When the format is stuck in a less than healthy cycle so often these decisions do not matter against the top of the field. Instead we are seeing the real time application of metagaming against the best decks and are also seeing the rewards of such behavior. By the end of the weekend we were also seeing some Glitter pilots adjust back, moving off of Turn Aside and towards Apostle’s Blessing as a way protect their investment at all costs.

But enough about Glitters for now, what decks performed well over the weekend?

Over the three challenges 28 different archetypes cleared the Top 32 threshold and 14 different strategies earned a Top 8 berth. Part of this diversity may have to do with the relatively small fields for each event (47, 64, 52) but it is still something of note. Something else that sticks out like a sore thumb is how well Black Gardens performed. It was the most popular deck in the Top 32 and tied for the most Top 8s. Gardens ended up with 18.5% of the winner’s metagame – up from 14.6% of the overall meta – and led the way with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.19. This number tops Glitter Affinity’s 1.06 aMSAR score from last week.

Skipping over the next deck in aMSAR (Glitter Affinity with 0.55) we come to Dimir Faeries with 0.49. Another deck that leans hard on interaction, Faeries splits its answers between countermagic and removal. It was remarkably consistent, with 10.5% of the overall metagame volume, 10.42% of the Top 32 metgame and 10.9% of the winner’s metagame. In this Dimir Faeries represented the baseline choice for the weekend, serving as a standard against which the other decks can be examine.

The last thing I want to note for this week is the small bounce in Kuldotha Red. The deck had a fairly miserable performance last weekend with an aMSAR of -0.29 – meaning it was worse than an average choice in the Top 32 – with 0.52% of the winner’s meta share. Most recently it did not return to its heyday but took up a very respectable 4.79% of the winner’s meta, improving its aMSAR to -0.07, only ever so slightly worse than an average Top 32 deck. I do not expect Kuldotha to jump back to the top of the meta next week but it could see another step up as people attempt to adjust to beat the current top three of Black Gardens, Dimir Faeries, and Glitter Affinity.

Next week is going to be about dodging removal. With two black decks at the forefront of the format right now going wide could be one path to victory as a way to get around Tithing Blade and pinpoint removal. At the same time these decks are capable of packing board wipes so relying on an army of tokens does carry risk. Instead, look toward either a well tuned build of Jeskai Ephemerate or a Guardian of the Guildpact deck to you over the finish line. Jeskai has the ability to pack all the answers and close out the game while Guardian dodges removal like nobody’s buisness.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

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Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Sometimes being let down is unavoidable. After last weekend’s incredibly robust slate of Pauper events it feels jarring to see only two Challenges fire on a weekend. It was not so long ago that two events were standard but now it feels out of place. There’s another lingering sense of unease; one that warrants some more discussion. Glitter Affinity has emerged as the top deck in Pauper which has led to quite a bit of discussion.

Let’s get the big question out of the way first: is Glitter Affinity a “problem”? My response is an unsatisfying “it’s hard to say”. Until last weekend the strategy had mired in the middle of the pack during Murders at Karlov Manor season but then broke out with some absolutely ostentatious numbers. I am known to say that I only start to worry if trends emerge and while the weekend of March 2-3 was a singular data point, we now have two.

But there’s additional context to this conundrum. Kuldotha Red not only been incredibly popular for several months but it has also been fairly dominant. Even last weekend the red deck was the most popular archetype in the Qualifier tournament. This week, Kuldotha Red had seven total appearances in the Challenges and one finish across two Top 32s. I’m not going to waste anyone’s time with a rhetorical “what’s changed?” because the answer is “nothing”. Instead it is plausible that the meta has adjusted to current iteration of red in a way that has rendered it less effective. Normally such a shift would be associated with a rise in another archetype that could eat unto the meta share.

Is this what is happening with Glitter Affinity? Possibly. It is also possible that in the wake of Glitter’s overwhelming dominance last weekend that more people picked it up in an information cascade. Couple this with the relatively slow rate of adjustment in Pauper and we can start to see an opening for a dominant performance by Glitter Affinity.

So what is Glitter Affinity, exactly? It is a low to the ground aggressive deck that uses cheap creatures and the Affinity mechanic to flood the board. It has a light tempo gameplan with Metallic Rebuke to keep the opponent off balance and has the capability to reload with both Of One Mind and Thoughcast. While it can put a lot of material on the battlefield it does most of its damage with All That Glitters. In this way plays like a curve based aggro deck albeit one with a Bogles style gear. It is this extra gear that can prove troublesome. The cards that are traditionally good against go wide decks suffer when faced with a sufficiently large threat and focusing on the biggest creature means you might get run over by Myr Enforcers. Glitter has the ability to apply a ton of pressure early thanks to its curve and Springleaf Drum, meaning that the rest of the format needs to build with these opening draws in mind.

So how can you approach the meta with Glitter Affinity in mind? It’s easy to say “removal spells” but what does that look like? Cast Down and Snuff Out are great but both come at a cost, either in life points or in trading negatively in terms of tempo and mana efficiency. Galvanic Blast might be able to hit everything but both look a bit anemic when facing down a turn two Myr Enforcer. A card like Electrostatic Bolt can hit almost every relevant creature in the deck and has the advantage of costing a single mana, without any other conditions. Vendetta might not be as powerful as Snuff Out but it does have the upside of not costing you 20% of your starting life total against a deck where most creatures have two toughness. This option does suffer against a resolved copy of All That Glitters but the goal should be to try and keep the board clear when resources are low and Glitters cannot keep up interaction in the form of Metallic Rebuke.

There are other cards that fly under the radar when it comes to fighting against glitter Affinity: green cards. Green is at a loose end in Pauper at the moment as it functions as a color to help grant the Initiative or as part of a hypermana strategy. That being said the deck has two one mana answers to All That Glitters that, while not game ending sideboard cards, can throw a wrench in the works. Natural State is nothing new and at one mana it can pick off many of the artifact threats in the deck as well as All That Glitters. Pick Your Poison has utility in all three of its modes but it does require a bit more set up to be at full efficacy.

I want to be perfectly clear: running these cards will not make your deck have a good matchup against Glitter Affinity. Instead they are options I feel are under-explored.

You’ll notice I am advocating here for cheap options as opposed to cards that are often seen as “hammers” against Affinity like Dust to Dust. That is because Glitter Affinity tries to win the game by capitalizing on tempo. Tempo in Magic is a notoriously nebulous concept but in this instance it can be seen as the ease of deploying threats in a mana efficient manner. Waiting until turn three to potentially hit two artifacts while not developing your board in the face of multiple threats might win you a game on card advantage but if you’re facing lethal damage it does not matter. By leaning more on cheap points of interaction you have the potential to not falling too far behind on mana spent while also pushing the game towards a point where Glitter’s early tempo advantage matters less. We’ve all been in games where someone jumps out ahead and applies a ton of pressure, only to peter out in the midgame when the control in the matchup turns the corner. That is what you should be trying to do in these instances – survive long enough that the early beats do not matter.

Does this mean that sometimes you’re going to “just lose” to a very good Glitters draw? Yes. But that does not mean the game plan is incorrect, just that it isn’t a guarantee. Tournament Magic is a two player affair and your opponent is not going to roll over to a good sideboard card hitting the stack.

Looking forward you should be thinking about the format with All That Glitters at the front of your mind. How can you stop it from connecting and how can you survive once it hits the battlefield? Like any emergent threat it is important not to bring the wrong answers because as Pauper has taught us over the past two years there is no such thing as the wrong threat.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

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Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

There are a lot of stories from last weekend in the world of Magic Online Pauper. In addition to the three regularly scheduled Challenges there was also a Qualifier tournament. The Qualifier had 219 participants, making it larger than the other three Challenges combined. Historically these larger events provide a different perspective on the format as they attract players who are interested in taking the next step on the competitive ladder and as such might have an understanding of the format that deviates from the folks who play it more often. Looking at the events side-by-side – that is all the Challenges and the Qualifiers – one thing becomes apparent: the weekend belonged to Glitter Affinity.

This chart represents the total metagame for all three regularly scheduled Challenges that took place last weekend. For the first time this season Kuldotha Red was not the most popular deck in the Challenges with straight up Blue-White Glitter Affinity taking that crown. It is possible that after weeks of Kuldotha Red sitting at the top of the heap players felt that having an assertive strategy with access to a counterspell could give them an edge. If you believe Pauper to be a format where racing matters, throwing a stick labeled Metallic Rebuke into your opponent’s wheel can make them stumble while you cruise to victory.

The data from the Top 32 tells a slightly different story. Not only was Glitter Affinity the most popular deck in the Challenges, but it was utterly dominant on the weekend. Leading off it was the most popular deck in the Top 32 with over 27% of that field with ten Top 8s and two wins. It’s adjusted Win+ ratio was an even 1 and it;s adjusted K-Win ratio was 2.5, meaning the deck averaged a finish in the Top 16, trending towards Top 8. The most striking stat is that it’s winner’s metagame volume was an astound 34.67%, more than doubling its overall meta presence. It is not out of the ordinary for a deck’s Top 32 finishers to out perform its overall volume but this increase indicates a dominant performance. This is backed up by a 1.55 adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement, the best of any deck in the Challenges this weekend.

It was a slightly different story in the Qualifier. Glitter Affinity was the fifth most popular deck in the field in a meta breakdown that looks more in line with the past several weeks of play. Again the deck starts to break away once we examine the Top 32 where it was the most popular archetype with five finishes and a winner’s metagame volume of 20.63%, outpacing it’s raw Top 32 rate but about 5%. This is not as stark of a jump as the regular Challenges but it is still notable. When Glitter Affinity really separated itself from the pack is in the adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement – a whopping 2.76. The next best performer was Flicker Tron with 0.98. The robots were certainly on a rampage this weekend.

What is Glitter Affinity doing to make it so successful? First, last weekend’s builds largely ignored Galvanic Blast which reduced the number of lands that enter tapped while also making it more likely that they can cast their spells. These decks also have increased redundancy thanks to the pair of Novice Inspector and Thraben Inspector, which both provide a body for All That Glitters and increases the auras impact. As mentioned early the deck can apply pressure early while leaving up countermagic to make sure that the opponent’s plays are for naught. Glitter Affinity also requires a slightly different approach than Kuldotha Red. Whereas the red deck can often falter in the face of sweepers (provided the control deck has a high enough life total), resolving an All That Glitters before a wipe can be resolved renders this angle of attack moot.

Another thing to consider is the prevalence of Dimir Terror over the weekend. While not a true control deck the strategy can assume the role thanks to its bevy of removal and countermagic. Dimir Terror was the second most popular archetype on the weekend but struggled to convert that presence to Top 32s in the Qualifier. Glitter Affinity can get on the board underneath Terror while also having cheap enough spells to render Spell Pierce dead. Sideboard copies of Obsidian Acolyte can be a back breaker for Cast Down and Snuff Out. Unexpected Fangs can put you out of range of burn spells but does very little if your opponent can leave back a 10/12 Ornithopter on defense. It is possible that the prevalence of this deck helped to create a lane where Glitter Affinity could succeed.

What about Kuldotha Red? It was just as popular as Dimir Terror in the Challenges but had a mediocre showing in those tournaments. It was the most popular strategy in the Swiss rounds of the Qualifier and ended up the third best archetype in that tournament. The more rounds that get played it makes sense that the red deck might struggle, as high impact sideboard cards are more likely to show up. Despite this, and its reputation as a top deck in the format making it a target, the numbers it put up are more than respectable.

Another deck that suffered from the number of rounds this weekend is Black Gardens. The premier black based midrange build in the format faltered. Midrange is great when your game plan lines up correctly with the spells on the other side of the table. The longer the tournament goes the more likely it is that you’re going to see the wrong half of your deck. The abundance of aggression also reduces the number of potential turns in a game which can put the squeeze on Gardens over enough games played.

In a real blast from the past, Flicker Tron had a fantastic qualifier. Two Tron pilots made the Top 8 and one more finished in the Top 32. That was every Tron deck in the field. A 100% conversion rate to Top 32 is impressive especially given the variety in the field. Tron is a deck that wants to reach its end-game quickly because few decks can match Tron’s late-game power. To get these these decks both ran a full four copies of Moment’s Peace main in addition to two copies of Mystical Teachings to find them. This says nothing of the four Impulse to dig for Peace and Weather the Storm as another angle of defense. Finally Rhystic Circle shows up in the sideboard as yet another way to negate attacks on the life total. Tron came to win the game of survival. At the end of the day, though, the deck can still get run over by red if the aggro deck has a quick draw.

The last weekend in Pauper showcased the diversity in the format but also how dynamic it can be. While Kuldotha Red was still near the top of the heap Glitter Affinity, a deck which was firmly in the middle of the pack a week ago, rose to the top. Dimir Terror made its presence felt while Black Gardens took a step back. And this is to say nothing of Flicker Tron rising up from the ashes. CawGate and Dimir Faeries also showed up and performed well while Bogles, Boros Synth, Izzet Control, and Squirrel Dredge loudly proclaimed they were there too. At the end of the day next week you have to be prepared for aggressive strategies but I would also try to find a way to pinch off Ephemerate loops. Flicker Tron is not going to go quietly and coming prepared to win a slog seems like a worthwhile endeavor.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Some may find the image that comes next a bit uncomfortable. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

This chart represents the overall Challenge metagame for the weekend of February 24-25. Out of 181 decks that entered one of the three challenges, 43 were Kuldotha Red. On the surface this does not look great but as we dive deeper into the numbers things are not looking quite as dire. As long as Magic Online has been around, low to the ground assertive decks have been somewhat over-represented in tournaments due in part to their low access barrier but also how quickly than can finish games. Considering that the new Sunday structure does encourage double-queuing (that is entering two tournaments at once), the return on investment for Kuldotha Red (both in entry fee, time spent playing, and cognitive load) has the potential to be far greater than other, potentially better, deck choices.

What do I mean by this? Well, Kuldotha Red held largely true to its overall presence in the Challenges by clocking in at 21.88% of the Top 32 metagame. Given this the two Top 8 finishes are also largely in line with what could be expected. Yet when it comes to winner’s metagame share Kuldotha Red tanked hard, down to 14.30% which is only good enough for third best on the weekend. When looking at Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement Kuldotha Red came away with a paltry 0.13 – fifth best on the weekend. Over the weekend Kuldotha Red had an average adjusted Win+ ratio of 0.29, which tells the story of a deck that can make Top 16 but trends to be just on the outside. It also pulled in a 0.9 adjusted K-Win ratio, which paints a similar picture.

Decks are adjusting to the new speed of Kuldotha Red and are built to handle it, either through maindeck or sideboard options. At the same time the inherent strength of the archetype means that sometimes it will just get there. In other words it continues to be one of the defining pillars of the Pauper metagame but is a far cry from the dominant force it was prior to the Monastery Swiftspear ban.

As for which deck had the best weekend overall it’s a tossup between CawGate and Dimir Terror. CawGate had the better aMSAR with 1.83 compared to Dimir Terror’s 1.49, but Terror came out ahead in winner’s metagame, taking down 16.71% while CawGate finished with 15.98% of the winner’s share. Trying to figure out which of these strategies was the best on the weekend is really going to come down to splitting hairs but if I had pick one it would be CawGate, which improved more on its Top 32 metagame share when contrasted to the winner’s meta.

Azorius Familiars also had a fantastic weekend (the above list went 7-0 in the Sunday Challenge before falling in the Top 8). The strategy was only 2.21% of the overall Challenge metagame but jumped to 3.13% of the Top 32 meta. It more than doubled this with a 7.53% share of the winner’s metagame and an aMSAR score of 1.42. There were four Azorius Familiars pilots all weekend and three of them made Top 8. The deck has also been on a tear in tabletop play and has consistently been one of the secret best decks in Pauper. It runs some of the most powerful cards in the format, has a hard to disrupt engine, and a lock down endgame. So what keeps it down?

First is the Magic Online interface. The deck is based on looping Ephemerate to turn the graveyard into a toolbox via Archaeomancer but this takes time and clicks. In paper play you can just announce and reveal the cards but digitally it requires clicks and yields and can put a strain on the clock, as well as your machine. The deck also has a reputation as difficult to pilot but much of this has to deal with the practice needed to click through correctly and not time yourself out. Having played against this deck (and its ancestors) quite a bit over the years I can say from experience that it is not only powerful, but can catch unprepared opponents without a real shot in the game. It is powerful, resilient, and attacks from enough angles that if it goes untargeted it can run roughshod.

Let’s focus on this for a moment. Kuldotha Red was 23.76% of the Challenge metagame while Azorius Familiars was 2.21%. Kuldotha Red was 21.88% of the Top 32 metagame; Familiars was 3.13%. In no world does it make sense to over-prepare for Familiars when other decks are as popular as they are. The kind of hate needed to keep Familiars down – graveyard exile, exile based removal, and mana denial – are not necessarily good against rest of the format (outside graveyard hate). Familiars thrives in part because it can sidestep the metagame in a way the core players cannot. Yet if you wanted to build a deck that beat Familiars you absolutely could, without giving up too much against non-aggressive builds.

And therein lies the rub. When beatdown is as popular as Kuldotha Red is now Familiars can step in and sweep up accolades. The same is true for any deck that has clear weaknesses – when other players have to simply survive this engine based builds can thrive. If Familiars were to ever get as popular as other options it is reasonable that specific interaction would rise up, either in maindecks or sideboards, to constrain the threat. For now it remains a good choice in a field of people simply trying to get out of burn range.

There are a few other things that stood out last weekend, namely the lack of Jeskai Glitters. While Glitter Affinity had a solid showing the splash-red version of the deck was nowhere to be found in the winner’s metagame. I don’t expect this to hold true moving forward but it is interesting to note. The sharp decline in Jesaki Ephemerate decks, after last weekend’s strong performance, also caught my eye but that might be related to people trying to replicate success without adjusting their builds.

Moving into next weekend I would focus on picking the right removal for the job. Dimir Terror and CawGate are not going anywhere so packing the right answers to these, while not giving up ground to little red creatures, is going to be a key to success. Given the way things are working out it would not shock me at all to see Mono-White Aggro sidestep removal entirely and crash in for victory on the back of some copies of Guardians’ Pledge.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

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I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

Okay right off the bat the title here is misleading as today’s post is going to be covering the first two weeks of Murders at Karlov Manor season. The weekend of February 10-11 saw an issue with Magic Online that completely borked the Sunday Challenges and as a result we didn’t get the, well, results. One event is not a lot to go on so I put off last week’s recap in favor of doing a more in depth one today. So today’s post is going to be look at the four of the first six Challenges of the recent season, taking into account 230 entrants. Let’s take a look at the overall metagame.

On first glance this looks like the kind of metagame that could make a somewhat prominent Pauper writer eat their words. Kuldotha Red was the most played deck over the first four recorded tournaments this season, coming it at over 18% of the overall metagame. And if that was the entire story I would be getting the ketchup ready. But the numbers don’t hold true – there’s a small drop in Kuldotha Red’s prevalence to 17.19% of the Top 32 metagame. The dip is even more stark in the winner’s metagame – a weighted measure that takes performance into account. There the number clocks in at a more reasonable 14.3%.

Taken together what we have is a deck that is popular and good, but also one that as the field narrows starts to see its performance drop relative to its popularity. There are a few other confounding factors to consider. First, we are in the early part of a release cycle where the highest impact new card skews aggressive, which means control decks are still in the process of adjusting. Second, Kuldotha Red is the clear best execution of a Red Deck in Pauper at the moment. For other strategies, whether it is the Initiative or seeks to leverage All That Glitters or Skred or Tolarian Terror all have multiple options. While there may be a clear best build of these strategies from week to week, Kuldotha Red will consistently at the top of its class. The result is red simply gets to accrue statistics over the course of a season. Again none of this is to say the deck is bad, just that it might not be as good as the raw numbers indicate.

This then begs the question of what decks are doing well? Black Gardens is outperforming its presence. At 8.7% of the overall metagame it actually takes a dip to 8.59% of the Top 32 metagame but jumps up appreciably to 10.47% of the weighted metagame. Over the four recorded events Black Gardens earned an adjusted Meta Score Above replacement of 0.7, beating out Kuldotha Red’s 0.53. But what was really surprising is that Black Gardens was the third best deck over the first weeks of the season.

Let’s start with the second best performing deck on the weekend – Goblin Combo. Goblin Combo is a persist combo deck that uses Skirk Prospector, Putrid Goblin, and First Day of Class to generate an unbound amount of mana. Once this is achieved the deck can then convert that mana into pings with Makeshift Munitions to win the game. All of this is stitched together with Goblin Matron and Dark-Dweller Oracle, with Oracle allowing you effectively draw your entire deck. Recently the deck has also adopted Mesmeric Fiend as a piece of maindeck disruption.

Goblin Combo has been around for quite some time but has never really taken off. This may be do to the number of clicks required to accomplish the combo on Magic Online, which can be onerous as you are not able to “demonstrate a loop” in the client. The deck also relies heavily on the graveyard and as such is vulnerable to all the regular hate that crops up. That being said the deck has the ability to deal as much damage as it needs to in order to win the game and unlike other combo decks in the format can win on the opponent’s turn (given the correct set of circumstances).

Over the tracked challenges, Goblin Combo earned an aMSAR score of 0.86. It accounted for 3.5% of the overall metagame and 5.88% of the Top 32 metagame, dipping down to 5.57% of the winner’s metagame. With the abundance of aggressive decks, control builds are skewing towards removal but Goblin Combo comes packed with enough resilience and redundancy to survive until it can turn the corner.

Jeskai Ephemerate has been the best performing deck thus far this season with aMSAR score of 0.94. The strategy is 5.2% of the overall Challenge meta, 6.25% of the Top 32 metagame, and then takes a leap up to 9.92% of the winner’s metagame. Jeskai Ephemerate is making a play for the premier control deck in the format currently due in no small part to its tool box nature.

Based around the Archaeomancer–Ephemerate engine, the goal of this deck is to see as many cards as possible and find the correct ones for a given situation. Mana hungry, Jeskai Ephemerate uses Cleansing Wildfire to accelerate while also seeing more cards. The addition of Murmuring Mystic to the format has provided a consistent win condition that can close out games quickly when needed while also absorbing damage from decks looking to turn sideways.

Part of the strength of Jeskai Ephemerate is in its flexibility. It can adjust its maindeck composition for an expected metagame, meaning the opponent can never be certain what is in store for them. Like Goblin Combo these builds are somewhat vulnerable to graveyard hate but at the same time they can just play a normal control game and sidestep Relic of Progenitus. The result is a deck that has the capability for just about anything, including falling on its face if it brings the wrong answers to the table.

The story of Murders at Karlov Manor season thus far looks to be one of folks preparing for aggression. Despite the popularity of beatdown strategies, the best performing decks to this point have been those designed to not only handle aggro but also have a plan to get around defenses. Whether it be through Trap, Munitions, or a never ending stream of Bird tokens, Pauper is not just about beating creatures on the board but figuring out a way around some well laid defenses.

Looking ahead I would be in the market for making Pestilence or Crypt Rats work. Provided such a deck could survive the early onslaught of red, these cards do a good job of keeping the board clear. Pestilence can also put in work, keeping Goblin Combo from going off and mitigating the damage from Murmuring Mystic. The issue with these decks, as always, is surviving to that point and then turning the corner. It is possible that a Basilisk Gate–Guardian of the Guildpact build could put in the work but then you are relying on multiple four drops to get things done, which does seem like a fairly large ask these days. Still, figuring out how to spread the sickness seems like a path worth pursuing for the upcoming Challenges.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!