NerdtotheCore

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Now that the school year has started (or rather, that New Student Orientation has ended), I hope to be able to return to a more regular posting cycle. My gastroenterologist tells me that being regular is a good thing. He also tells me I’m full of…

Anyway.

As I discussed last week, Bloomburrow season feels much more like an extension of Modern Horizons 3 than its own entity. A look at my latest Power Rankings highlights that despite a new set of cards the current state of things is largely defined by what has come before. Today I want to dive a little deeper into the stats and try to suss out a bit more information that did not quite make it into my other articles.

Gruul Ramp has been the most popular deck this season with 11.98% of the Top 32 metagame and 12.5% of the calculated Winner’s Metagame. These numbers are far from gaudy as in past seasons one could reasonably expect the top decks to take down north of 15% of the Winner’s Meta. It’s Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement is a healthy 0.98, placing its performance firmly above average. But the story of this strategy is one of mild decline.

It led the pack in the first two weeks of the season with aMSAR scores of 1.17 and 1.29 before underperforming in week three with a score of -0.23 before bouncing back last week with a 0.16. All told this appears to be the story of a deck that was able to attack an underprepared metagame. Once people got wise the deck came back to earth. Already we have seen some players move back towards Mwonvuli Acid-Moss (but not Thermokarst) as another way to leverage the mana bump from Writhing Chrysalis.

It has become impossible to talk about Pauper without discussing Grixis Affinity. After the Monastery Swiftspear ban, Grixis Affinity emerged as the de facto best deck in the format. While it alone does not define the metagame, its position as the premier control deck puts some limits on what can be done in the format. The Modern Horizons 2 Bridges tie all of Grixis’ synergies together, providing amble fodder for the format’s darling board wipe Krark-Clan Shaman. As someone who has been playing Pauper for nearly two decades (that sound you hear are my knees grinding into dust) it is both wild and awesome. The current tech is to pair it with Toxin Analysis to take out everything on the ground and gain a bunch of life.

Neat.

Grixis started off slow, going from an aMSAR of 0.14 before jumping to 0.81 and 0.91 in Weeks 2 and 3. Last weekend it took a leap to 2.09 (which was somehow only good for the second best showing), ending the last month with a 1.26, a full 0.28 better than Gruul Ramp. With 11.72% of the Top 32 metagame and 13.77% of the Winner’s Meta, Grixis Affinity is once again setting the pace for Pauper.

All of this is before we get to the Eldrazi in the room: Broodscale combo. It’s only recently that the builds are starting to settle with two main camps emerging: a relatively creature light dedicated combo Golgari build and a more midrange Jund execution of the strategy. Regardless, the decks win the same way – generating an unbound number of tokens and colorless mana thanks to Basking Broodscale and Sadistic Glee. The spout might be different, but the machinations bear more than a passing resemblance.

Given that these are two distinct archetypes, their aMSAR scores are split. Needless to say they have both consistently performed at the average or above, with Golgari Boodscale netting a four week score of 0.66 while Jund is just behind at 0.6. Comparing this macro strategy to the rest of the field, at least at a glance, means utilizing a combined Winner’s Meta share. Broodscale Combo start at a combined 16.8% of the Winner’s Meta, moving to 20% in Week 2, down to 16.44% in Week 3, and finishing at 20.28% in Week 4. Looking at the entire month, Broodscale Combo accounted for 18.23% of the total Top 32 metagame and 18.18% of the Winner’s Meta.

So far we’ve discussed ramp, control, and combo. The aggressive deck I want to highlight should not be a shock to anyone in that it is Kuldotha Red. With an aMSAR this season of 0.52 thus far and 8.31% of the Winner’s Metagame (which is largely in line with the 8.33% of the Top 32 metagame), Kuldotha Red has fallen back in the metagame just a bit. Overall the format has gotten more powerful and as such the stagger strength of the deck does not appear to be as daunting. There has been some evolution in the archetype with a few pilots opting to move into a move Goblin heavy build- Goblin Grenade has become a baseline inclusion but some players have decided to further empty the warrens for cards like Goblin Sledder.

Finally I want to take a moment to talk about Blue Terror. The strategy is currently third in aMSAR score at 0.73 and has 10.4% of the Winner’s Meta. Counterspell remains a fantastic card and Blue Terror is one of the better shells to leverage the card. Tolarian Terror can end games in short order which makes it a well suited threat to capitalize on the tempo gained by countering a key spell. Like other strategies these builds adjust from week to week, moving from Boomerang to Deem Inferior to other bounce spells in an effort to find the best path to victory.

Overall, Pauper appears to be in a good place. While there are decks that are clearly in a class of their own, no one of them are so good as to make picking a divergent strategy a clear mistake. In practice these six* archetypes represent almost 61% of the Top 32 metagame and just over 63% of the Winner’s Metagame. Compare this to season’s past where specific archetypes would easily chew up north of 20% of both shares. Pauper is experiencing a power surge at the moment – a shock tot he system – and it might take a while for the other strategies to catch up. I for one am excited to see what Duskmourn has to offer the format, provided it doesn’t take the shape of a jump scare.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

July is a weird time of year for me. It’s the only month in the summer where my family can really take a vacation. In case you didn’t know, in my day-to-day life I run a campus center at a college and work closely with New Student Orientation. As a result August is the busiest time of year for me at work. Combine this with my child’s school schedule and we get a relatively narrow window for some well earned rest and relaxation.

Of course that’s hardly the case. I love vacation but coming back to a mountain of work is far from ideal. Combine that with some less than ideal travel conditions on our drive home – including a fender bender (we’re all fine!) and a sick kid (their car seat is not!) – and you get delays in publication.

So that leads me to today. We are two weeks into Bloomburrow season, which in practice is more of an extension of Modern Horizons 3 season. This is not a knock on Bloomburrow, a set that I am excited for in other formats. The issue with the latest release is not the overall power level but where that power is concentrated. Bloomburrow is a set heavily built on internal synergy and as such the commons are meant to support that need. Removed from that context a card like Intrepid Rabbit is not a payoff for Rabbit and Mouse decks, but rather a less than ideal payoff for aggressive Kor Skyfisher decks.

Compare this the Modern Horizons 3. The cards are individually powerful to be sure, but they also intentionally have synergy with cards from Magic’s long and storied history. Writhing Chrysalis works fine on its own but pair it with other Eldrazi and you get a real stat monster. Refurbished Familiar works well in an environment with reasonably costing artifacts but shines in one lousy with cheap and free trinkets. Malevolent Rumble just works if you put it in a green deck.

But still we have new additions to the card pool and so the season has turned. With that in mind let’s take a look at the first two weeks of Bloomburrow season.

These numbers represent the first six challenge Top 32s of Bloomburrow season and one thing to note is the diversity in the most popular archetypes. Yes, Grixis Affinity is still chugging right along with 13.54% of the Top 32 metagame, but other macro archetypes are right there with the Machine, if not exceeding its volume.

When I say “macro” archetype, in this instance I am not talking about the big buckets like aggro, control, midrange, and combo. Instead I’m using it in this specific instance to talk about decks based around somewhat similar cores and gameplans. A perfect example of this is Gruul Ponza and Gruul Ramp. These two decks have a lot in common, starting with their acceleration package of Arbor Elf and Utopia Sprawl. They both want to accelerate to a dominating endgame but Ponza as has a mana denial angle of attack and, until recently, was the more dominant execution of this core. Clearly that has change in recent weeks but Gruul Arbor Elf decks have made up 19.28% of the Top 32 metagame.

We can see something similar in Tolarian Terror decks. While Blue Terror, Dimir Terror, and Izzet Control all have different executions, these decks all push towards an endgame where they have the biggest threat left on the table. The biggest difference is how they are clearing a path. Combined these decks make up 23.44% of the Top 32 metagame.

Wrapping up this group there’s Basking Broodscale combo. These decks come in two main camps – Golgari and Jund – but there’s a massive amount of variety, especially when it comes to ending the game. Still they all revolve around the same unbound loop of Basking Broodscale and Sadistic Glee providing an endless supply of Eldrazi Spawn, +1/+1 counters, and colorless mana. Combined these archetypes take up 18.76% of the Top 32 metagame.

How does this translate to the Winner’s Metagame? Tolarian Terror decks lead the way with 21.3% of the Winner’s Meta share with Gruul Arbor Elf not far behind at 21%. Broodscale combo is next up with 18.37% with Grixis Affinity outside a medal finish at 12.63%. Again this pulls from a small sample size but right now Pauper centers around who can keep their big threats alive. It follows then that low-restriction removal spells has seen an uptick in play. It also makes sense that Elves has made a comeback.

Elves is a deck that, by all accounts, should struggle in Pauper. The bevy of efficient sweepers has kept the pointy eared army at bay for years at this point. But going wide has its advantages in a world full of point removal. The biggest innovation as of late is a mana sink that can win the game on its own in Nyxborn Hydra. Now Priest of Titania can do a fairly solid Timberwatch Elf impersonation, for at least one turn.

The metagame is still settling but moving forward I would want to ensure I have a way to stop Basking Broodscale while also holding Tolarian Terror and Writhing Chrysalis at bay. And this is to say nothing of being able to stop a horde of elves. A deck that can resolve a Pestilence early could go far, if it has the ability to follow that up with cards like Extract a Confession.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

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Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Oh yeah, I’m thinking I’m back.

But in all seriousness, this past weekend saw three Pauper Challenges take place on Magic Online. There was also a Showcase Qualifier but I am excluding that from this results summary mostly because it failed to reach a 32 player threshold. At five rounds the event would skew the data set to such a degree that I fear it would create more noise than information. All that being said the event did seem to lean a bit more on the assertive side of things which largely tracks with the wider trends we have seen in Pauper since the return of published data.

It is hard to talk about the current state of Pauper without bringing up the recent surge in Mono White Aggro. The deck has been a fringe contender for quite some time and apparently the final piece it needed was an above average removal spell in Thraben Charm. The deck wins by putting power and toughness onto the battlefield then using said stats to attack and block for the win. The deck is not “simple” but it is straightforward and the fact that it is experiencing this level of success is heartening as it relates to overall format health as it represents the first traditional aggro deck to experience such heights in quite some time. Last week Mono White had the third best Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement at 0.86 but was the second most populous deck int he Winner’s Meta Share with 16.16%.

What deck topped the field in aMSAR? Blue Terror with an impressive 1.07 (and 13.58% of the Winner’s Meta Share). This strategy cemented itself as part of the Pauper metagame last year when Cryptic Serpent was downshifted in Commander Masters. Since then it has cycled in and out of the top tier but has always been a solid choice. The deck excels at presenting a real threat and backing it up with Counterspell, something that has been a tried and true path to victory for decades at this point. Like Mono White Aggro, Blue Terror also got a new spell from Modern Horizons 3 in the shape of Deem Inferior, which usually costs a single blue mana thanks to the abundance of cantrips. The ability to tuck an offending nonland permanent in pretty important as it can buy precious time against Basking Broodscale decks (amongst others).

Grixis Affinity might have been the most popular deck in the Winner’s Meta Share (17.19%) and had the second best aMSAR (0.98) but instead of talking about Affinity again I want to discuss Golgari Gardens. This archetype had all but fallen off the radar in recent weeks, hardly making a dent in the first month of the Modern Horizons 3 cycle. After a solid showing last week it took another step up with 11.1% of the Winner’s Meta Share and an aMSAR score of 0.55. Given the abundance of decks that lean heavily on creatures – whether they are trying to attack or are components of a combo, it was only a matter of time before one of the best Snuff Out decks returned to prominence. In addition to the 10 copies of Gardens to make the Top 32 there were three Mono Black variants (that did touch other colors in the sideboard) with similar game plans that lacked the closing power provided by Avenging Hunter.

Where does that leave things looking ahead to next week? Pauper is in a pretty good spot right now, format health wise, and the reviews are glowing. Despite the continued strength of Affinity it is far from clear that the Machine is the best deck on a week to week basis. Things are constantly shifting and at times it feels as if anything can not only win, but experience some modicum of sustained success.

Coming off of last week where the shift towards black based removal strategies was somewhat expected, I anticipate movement towards more resilient threats. Cards like Sacred Cat laugh at a single Snuff Out while Sneaky Snacker is a persistent nuisance. If removal is going to be out in force then a deck that cares less about losing a singular threat seem like good choices. If it were me I would be looking at Orzhov builds that lean on Ephemerate and potentially go over the top with a card like Vampire Sovereign.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Hello there.

It’s been a while.

Now that the Magic Online decklists are back to being published, albeit in a reduced fashion, we can start exploring the Pauper metagame once again. While the lack of full Challenge lists is not ideal, the goal of this series has always been to look at the top of the Pauper metagame in an effort to understand what strategies are consistently performing well. The lack of complete data, while a hindrance, does not mean the end of analysis. Historically the analysis of the Top 32 I have done largely lines up with the format at large. That is not to say this is perfect information or is as robust as it was in week’s prior, but if you are looking for an understanding of competitive Pauper, I believe this remains a good place to start.

I have a set of Power Rankings going live on ChannelFireball this week but that article does not really take this last weekend into account. Still I don’t feel that it is too “Shhh, Spoilers” to tell you both Kuldotha Red and Grixis Affinity are near the top of my chart. Both decks remain popular options that can just get people dead. The closing power of Galvanic Blast cannot be understated – this card just gets people dead. Whether it is supported by the additional burn and Goblin Bushwhacker powered beats of Kuldotha Red or the slow grind of Refurbished Familiar and Blood Fountain in Affinity, Galvanic Blast decks continue to find themselves well positioned in Pauper.

That’s nothing new.

This weekend, however, showed off two interesting trends that might be worth exploring. With the full caveat that only two Challenges fired this weekend – the Friday and Saturday 32 player minimum events – I want to highlight two decks that made their presence felt.

First, let’s talk about Gruul Ramp. This deck is not entirely new as players have been cutting the land destruction package from their Arbor Elf/Utopia Sprawl decks for quite some time. Last weekend only one such deck made the Top 8 and it decided to do its own thing instead of blowing up lands. Normally I would see this as an outlier but then similar decks, cutting the mana denial package, started to crop up in the Pauper League Results.

Gruul Ramp lacks the free wins that Thermokarst and Mwonvuli Acid-Moss provide. By cutting these cards, however, the deck no longer has dead draws in the late game or against any of the decks that are running Bridges as a significant part of their mana base – 26.56% of the Top 32 decks last weekend. The addition of Landscapes to decks also reduce the efficacy of land destruction as these cards can sit in play and help cast spells until a key moment. In exchange Ramp gets to run cards more tailored to specific metagames and increase its threat count. Whether this build overtakes Ponza in the long run remains to be seen, but I would be bullish on monsters over Stone Rains.

Mono White Aggro is not a new deck and has been putting up sporadic results for quite some time. The deck got a huge shot in the arm with Thraben Charm which helps to give the strategy more flexibility. Now it can pack creature removal and graveyard interaction all into one card, while also having a maindeck out to Makeshift Munitions. Mono White also excels at leveraging Prismatic Strands as both an offensive and defensive weapon and Raffine’s Informant gives the deck an easy way to get it into the graveyard. Battle Screech and Guardians’ Pledge can end games and between eight copies of Inspector effects and Militia Bugler, the cards flow with ease.

Mono White had the best Adjusted Meta Score above replacement this weekend with a robust 1.70. Now this comes with a fairly big caveat of only two such decks made the Top 32 all weekend (although both ended up in the Top 8 and one won the Saturday Challenge). Grixis Affinity had a solid 0.68 with Kuldotha Red bringing home the bronze with 0.44. For a weekend with relatively few data inputs this metric is not the best. So what happens when we look at winner’s metagame share?

Kuldotha Red leads the way by a significant margin with a robust 23.04% of the winner’s meta (down from 28.13% of total volume). Grixis Affinity clocks in at 16.54% (up from 15.63% of the Top 32 field) while Mono White’s winner’s share was 12.42%, almost doubling it’s 6.25% Top 32 volume.

There is, of course, something else going on in Pauper. The era of Modern Horizons 3 is the best by creature based combo decks in a way that hasn’t been seen in quite some time. The first four weeks of the cycle had the combo version of WonderWalls perform at an incredible clip – it had the second best AMSAR for the month at 0.56 – while Inside Out Combo put up solid results as well. The other story is Basking Broodscale combo. When paired with Sadistic Glee the lizard creates an unbound loop which can kill in all manner of ways from Makeshift Munitions to Nadier’s Nightblade to an attack with Haunted Cloak. None of these decks lean on the graveyard the way Goblin Combo has in the past and are somewhat resilient to the readily available board wipes.

So next week I would recommend running a deck that can fully leverage Snuff Out. While a single removal spell is not going to be able to beat all the top decks and lingering combo builds, Snuff Out remains an incredibly powerful card that currently lacks a competitive home (only one Golgari Gardens deck made the Top 32 last weekend and it had 2.04% of the Winner’s Metagame over the first four weeks). Gardens may not be the most well positioned deck for the upcoming week but playing a heavy removal Orzhov or Dimir deck isn’t totally outside the bounds of what is reasonable.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Modern Horizons 3 is finally here! While some players meet these sets with a sense of trepidation, especially for what they do to established formats, I find them exciting in how much change they can catalyze. The infusion of power cards help to push the metagame and new and different directions which, at least at the start of the process, is novel. The issues arise when whatever is new is so powerful that it obsoletes everything that came before without bearing a passing resemblance to that same era.

At the same time, formats need to evolve and adapt. Sometimes decks simply loose their luster and there is very little that can be done to return them to the spotlight. Stompy is a great example of this phenomena. Once a format staple due to how its threats lined up with the metagame, the mono green deck has fallen on hard times due in part to the power creep in other cards but also due to how the deck’s avenue of attack doesn’t mesh with the latest traffic pattern in Pauper.

Back to the story at hand. So while what the latest iteration of Modern Horizons‘ impact might not be fully known, the weekend of the set’s debut has certainly provided Pauper with some interesting points of information. In some ways the first set of Challenges met expectations and in at least one way caught people just a bit off guard.

Across the three Challenges that took place this weekend, Grixis Affinity was the most popular archetype (23 total appearances out of 179 entrants; 12.85%). Bogles placing second (18 total appearances, 10.06%) was a bit of a surprise but once you look a bit deeper it starts to make sense.

Let’s start with Grixis Affinity. Going into Modern Horizons 3 this was the deck at the forefront of the discourse. The latest iteration of a dedicated Artifact Land deck, Grixis Affinity operates as a control deck and instead of applying pressure early (with cards that have since been banned), Grixis wants to drag out the game so it can win by recurring threats with Blood Fountain or setting up a situation where Makeshift Munitions can handle those final life points by throwing Bridges at people. The prevailing narrative going into the weekend was that, thanks to Refurbished Familiar Sneaky and Snacker the deck had achieved Tier Zero status. The early returns in the League backed up this claim before the deck’s trophy count fell off.

Now it could very well be true that the sheer amount of hate being packed for Affinity – Dust to Dust, Deglamer, Gorilla Shaman, Ancient Grudge, and more – could be holding the deck back. However even when players were packing significant hate for previous decks to be decried at Tier Zero (Glitter Affinity, Red with Swiftspear), those decks still managed to pad their trophy chest and have strong performances in the Challenges. The current builds of Affinity have yet to display this sort of stickiness in the face of a prepared metagame. Whether this settles into a healthy cycle remains to be seen but it is something I’m keeping my ever-hopeful eye upon.

Bogles is a deck I didn’t really put a ton of stock in moving into the latest release cycle. The deck tends to perform well in new metagames as people adjust their removal but I was completely caught off guard by how good Malevolent Rumble is in the builds. Rumble digs towards everything that Bogles wants – lands, creatures, or auras – all why providing a piece of fodder to feed to Tithing Blade and the like. The fact that it also leaves behind a body which can wear auras, albeit without the protection inherent in the deck’s namesake, helps to increase the overall consistency of the deck. While it is only one weekend, Bogles was hte most popular deck in the Top 32 (up to 13.52% of the latter), before dipping to 11.53% of the winner’s metagame with an Adjusted Metascore Above Replacement of 0.54. By comparison, Affinity dropped to 10.42% of the Top 32 metagame with a winner’s share of 7.12%. It also pulled in with an aMSAR of -0.09, meaning it performed slightly worse than average in the Top 32.

So what deck led the way? Why Orzhov Blade. It has an impressive aMSAR of 1.31 and gained share with each narrowing of our scope. Ten appearances means 5.59% of the total metagame, with six of those decks making the Top 32 (6.25%) and an impressive 9.86% of the winner’s metagame. It also closed the weekend with three Top 8 finishes, tying Bogles in that regard. These decks are adept at recycling enters-the-battlefield triggers and Refurbished Familiar is a natural fit, especially for a deck that wants to grind out small advantages turn after turn.

Even though these strategies did not perform exceptionally well, I want to point out the development in the Arbor Elf/Utopia Sprawl decks. These decks have made great use of current bane of limited Writhing Chrysalis, which slots in perfectly to play defense until it can turn sideways, all while providing more mana for expensive late game spells. Some of these builds have moved away from land destruction, instead opting to focus entirely on a proactive metagame and so these archetypes have been split into Ponza (mana denial) and Ramp (accelerated endgame) buckets. This is absolutely going to be an archetype to watch moving forward and I am interested to see where the lists settle.

As for next week I fully expect Bogles, Ramp, and Orzhov to be at the top of everyone’s mind (with Tolarian Terror decks not far behind). Extract a Confession seems like where you want to be for Edict style removal and as a result Basilisk Gate starts to look like an attractive option. Or you could just copy Gabriel Nassif’s deck from the Creator Showcase and run Boros Bully, which hasn’t gained any new cards (EDIT: I missed the two copies of Thraben Charm in my review of the list; my mistake) but appears to be well positioned against the rest of the meta, at least for this week.

Power Rankings

• 10: Mono White Aggro
• 9: Kuldotha Red
• 8: Gruul Ramp/Ponza
• 7: Grixis Affinity
• 6: CawGate
• 5: Goblin Combo
• 4: Rakdos Madness
• 3: Blue Terror
• 2: Bogles
• 1: Orzhov Blade

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Outlaws of Thunder Junction season is drawing to a close. The final four weeks of the cycle took place without All That Glitters hanging over the format’s collective head. Last week we looked at three weeks worth of events but today we’re going to focus on the final weekend with it’s three Challenges and one Showcase Qualifier. A final review will be coming in the not too distant future but for now I want to explore this weekend in isolation.

Why explore four tournaments, separate from the rest of the season, especially with a high impact set coming down the pike? Pauper, traditionally, has evolved slowly. Even when strong cards are added the first implementations of the new options often come in existing shells. On top of that while Modern Horizons sets have caused shifts in the landscape they have done so in ways that were built upon Pauper’s history: Arcum’s Astrolabe fit neatly into existing Tron and Kor Skyfisher shells before taking on a life of its own; the Bridges slotted in alongside the Mirrodin Artifact Lands; Chatterstorm and Galvanic Relay looked to previous Storm shells. The cards in Modern Horizons 3 are powerful and could spawn entirely new archetypes. At the same time there’s a very good chance that in Week 1 we are going to see Refurbished Familiar brought back with Blood Fountain or blinked with Ephemerate in decks that are otherwise known.

The weekend of June 7-9 saw three Challenges as well as a massive (for Pauper) 203 player Showcase Qualifier. All told there were 383 entrants that played at least one round in these tournaments. Kuldotha Red was the most popular deck on the weekend with 63 total appearances, accounting for 16.45% of the entire field. CawGate took silver in the popularity contest with 47 total appearances, good for 12.27% of the total metagame. Grixis Affinity also ended up on the podium with 29 total appearances (7.57%), barely beating out Gruul Cascade (28 appearances/7.31%) and Rakdos Madness (27/7.05%).

Moving into next week the top three decks should be on everyone’s radar. Kuldotha Red continues to set the pace for Pauper and while the latest release does not provide any clear additions, the fact remains that red isn’t getting worse. Getting on board early with a bevy of small creatures, only to turn them sideways later after kicking Goblin Bushwhacker, all while backed up with Galvanic Blast, remains a great way to win games. It’s possible Sarpadian Simulacrum supplants Voldaren Epicure as an artifact that turns on Kuldotha Rebirth while also being the correct creature type for Goblin Grenade, giving the deck a small boost in the synergy camp.

When it comes to the Top 32 metagame, Kuldotha Red moves into second place with 12.5% of the total Top 32 meta, 13.04% of the winner’s meta, and an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.16. Kuldotha Red performed admirably and took a reasonable dip in presence with the cut to the Top 32. The winner, however, was CawGate. In the same number of Top 32 appearances it ended up with 14.2% of the winner’s metagame and an aMSAR of 1.52.

CawGate is a midrange control deck that leverages the interaction between Brainstorm and Squadron Hawk (not to mention Lórien Revealed) to increase the overall quality of the cards in its hand. Its light permission suite is designed to ensure you can end the game with an evasive creature enhanced by Basilisk Gate. It is the quintessential blue midrange deck in Pauper, plodding along as a reasonable choice, often positioning itself thanks to a flexible mana base and sideboard. Basilisk Gate is a resilient threat that just requires a creature to get the ball rolling. CawGate does not have any clear gains from the latest set, but a card like Perilous Landscape could find a home if new builds desire a more reliable splash or want another shuffle effect while not missing out on mana development.

Although it did not have the best numbers on the weekend, Gruul Cascade (or something similar) is likely to flood the queues in the early going. 7.31% of the overall metagame is nothing to sneeze at, it dipped to 6.25% of the Top 32 metagame, dropping further to 4.1% of the Winner’s Metagame, ending up with a -0.17 aMSAR. So why am I bullish on this strategy? First, it won the Super Qualifier which always provides a small boost in popularity. Second, green ramp strategies are getting a gift in Colossal Dreadmask. A six drop that ca turn any old Arbor Elf into a real threat is attractive. Couple this with Horrific Assault, which might be a reason to return to Ulamog’s Crusher, and you get a strategy poised to run over the competition in the early going.

Going into next weekend, if I wasn’t keen on bringing something new, I’d be bringing Ethereal Armor to the party. Both Bogles and Heroic have been on the upswing recently (even if they are still mired in the scrum around the Top 32). These decks are getting a few new options thanks to new creatures with Bestow, as well as a focus on cards caring about Modified creatures and some neat combat tricks. On top of all this these decks are very good at applying pressure and you have a mix that is ripe for these strategies to have a strong showing.

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We’re back!

Did anything happen?

Jokes aside, Pauper is entering an interstitial moment. All That Glitters is gone and Modern Horizons 3 is not yet here. The format exists in a metagame that is, for all intents and purposes, entirely temporary. While we can examine the data from this past weekend’s three Challenges to anticipate what Friday (and Saturday and Sunday) may bring. Attempting to prognosticate past June 14th is a waste of brain cells as the next direct to Modern release is all but guaranteed to shake things up (if history is any indication).

Here we have the overall Challenge metagame. Across the three events there were 163 entrants who played at least one round and aside from the absence of Glitter Affinity the metagame looks remarkably familiar. Kuldotha Red was the most popular archetype but hardly a dominant force by way of presence; Golgari Gardens managed to adjust quickly enough to maintain its position in the metagame.

There are a few things that stand out to me about this chart. First is the return of Gruul Cascade. This deck has been all but absent in the All That Glitters metagame which makes sense. A key play pattern of this deck is taking the opponent off of resources but when a top deck can operate on effectively no lands then this style of strategy can fall flat. The other element that really caught my eye was the relative meager showing of Grixis Affinity. The go-to Affinity deck before Commander Masters dropped off in a dramatic fashion once the aggressive builds came to bear, but it seems that for the time being people are shying away from such dedicated builds.

The Top 32 metagame has its own story to tell. Golgari Gardens had a strong performance once it reached the Top 8 but the strategy was more likely to end up outside the Top 16. Kuldotha Red fared better but not as well (albeit in limited sample size) as Dimir Faeries and Goblin Combo. And now we come to the rub about next week.

Given the relatively small sample size from last weekend, as well as the recent changes to the format, it is hard to pull too much information from the most recent trio of Challenges. The metagame in many ways looks entirely similar to the one we saw prior to the ban with the absence of Glitters pushing aggressive strategies down the ladder. Instead we are seeing a proliferation of combo and midrange decks. What can be extrapolated from this?

Next week I would want to be on a control deck. Counterspell and its ilk look incredibly well positioned at the moment, but housing it in a more reactive shell appears to be better. Outside of Kuldotha Red nothing is trying to kill you quickly. Trying to be a hair larger than midrange with an increased emphasis on interacting seems like a good place to be, especially if your opponents are trying to rely on that one key spell to ether things done.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!