Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Today’s update is going to be a little different than usual as we’re going to start at the ending. Here’s what you need to know about Pauper: Kuldotha Red had a fantastic weekend on raw numbers, taking down over21% of the Challenge Metagame while also hauling in 24.12% of the Winner’s Metgame. It had the best Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement at 0.97, just a shade above Azorius Familiars with a score of 0.96. Azorius Familiars improved on its 4.76% overall meta share to 10.67% of the Winner’s Metagame.
What does this mean for next week? I like the position of a Orzhov Blade deck that can leverage life gain and graveyard hate. That being said this strategy has struggled mightily over the past few weeks so I wouldn’t take this deck into battle unless I was sure I had a strong build that could meet the format where it is currently.
The other day I posed a question about a single card that defines Pauper. As expected All That Glitters was the most popular answer and it is almost certainly correct. However I believe you can make a case that Galvanic Blast might be the single most important card in the format currently. Despite the popularity of various Glitters decks over the past several months, Kuldotha Red has not gone anywhere. Similarly even before it adopted the Aura, Boros Synthesizer was a reasonable choice and Grixis Affinity has stuck around in part due to Blast’s strength.
What does Galvanic Blast do to the format? First and foremost it shrinks games. When the baseline burn spell available can take out 20% of a life total as opposed to 15% the result is that there may fewer turns if you are under pressure. Being able to attack early with small creatures and end the game in a flurry of fire is a tried and true method to winning games and as we have seen with Kuldotha Red it persists even in a high power format like Pauper. All That Glitters and Galvanic Blast can reduce an opponent to zero life in double time. The overall result is an increased pressure on the format.
But that’s not all since Galvanic Blast can also hit creatures. As a result if you are playing a deck that wants to keep threats on the board in the middle and later stages of the game they either need to have five toughness or be somewhat immune to Galvanic Blast. A look at decks like Black Gardens, CawGate, and Dimir Terror all showcase a creature suite that is in some way resilient to the removal spell. Alternatively you can try to go wide so that a single Blast is not as effective or play a deck that does not need creatures as all.
I want to be very clear with this: what follows is an observation and does not reflect the opinion of the Pauper Format Panel nor its members. Rather this reflects my own thoughts and feelings as they stand today, May 1, 2024.
Pauper currently is a format where there are a ton of very powerful enablers and a series of differently managed outputs. Some of these enablers, such as Tron, have settled into a good space. The artifact synergy package is one that is constantly at the line, if not over it. Over the years, as sets return to artifact based themes for draft archetypes, artifact synergies get better. On top of that the proliferation of artifact tokens as material has made it easier to just turn these mechanics “on”. While we do see this with other attributes of the game it is not at the frequency of artifacts. On top of that the new cards are far more balanced overall, which means previous outliers get to push the boundary and reap the rewards.
Will other suites get their day in the sun? Surely. Over those same years we have gotten tons of graveyard matters archetypes and “spells matter” over and over again. Every combat trick in white or green is an invitation to revisit Heroic or Stompy. Pauper is a non-rotating format and as such has to look forward as much as it looks back when new card enter the ecosystem.
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