NerdtotheCore

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Foundations season is well underway with eight weeks of Magic Online Challenges in the rear view mirror. At the same time, Pauper can feel as if it has been in the Modern Horizons 3 release cycle since that set debuted. Depending on how you look at things the metagame appears to be rather diverse but at the same time there are a relatively narrow band of things you can do. This coupled with the relatively slow metagame churn of the format has left some dissatisfied. Today I want to take stock of where things stand and try to identify where things might be headed.

First, my usual caveats. Yes, I am a member of the Pauper Format Panel. That being said the opinions I express here today are my own and are not representative of the Panel. While this information may (or may not) be similar to some of the points I make in our discussions, do not take them as gospel. Rather, these observations are just my take on things.

I know this chart is small, but I will do my best to highlight the relevant numbers as they relate to this discussion. Over the past two months and 23 Challenges, 49 different archetypes have made the Top 32 of the Challenges. Some of these are minor variations (a Goblins focused build of Kuldotha Red for example) or hybrids (a mashup of Affinity and Dimir Faeries). However only 14 archetypes clear 2% presence in the Top 32 (minimum 15 appearances) and only six clear 5% (37 appearances). The metagame, therefore, appears to be concentrated on a few top decks with “fringe” builds only occasionally making waves.

Today I want to focus on the “True Volume” column. This number attempts to measure how prevalent an archetype is as it relates to its strength. For example, Kuldotha Red took up 16.44% of the total Top 32 metagame but when looking at its relative performance it dipped slightly to 15.98% of the True Volume, or Winner’s Metagame. Looking at the raw numbers, only two decks stand out in this regard – the aforementioned Kuldotha Red and Grixis Affinity at 15.89% True Volume. These are the only two discrete archetypes that clear 10% for Foundations season.

Astute readers will no doubt discern that I am up to something. Despite Kuldotha Red and Grixis Affinity being the two archetypes with the best performance, the metagame includes several strategies that share core elements and gameplans. There are multiple Basking Broodscale combo decks spanning the Goglari and Jund color combinations, and no fewer than three different versions of Tolarian Terror decks (Mono Blue, Dimir, and Izzet). When we look at these larger strategically similar buckets we end up with a composite that is less a mosaic:

• Broodscale Combo (Golgari, Jund): 16.7%
• Red (Kuldotha, Goblins, Galvanic Blast Burn): 16.37%
• Tolarian Terror (Mono Blue, Dimir Terror, Izzet Control): 16.34%
• Affinity (Grixis, Rakdos, Faerie-Affinity): 16.15%

All told these four game plans occupy 65.56% of the Winner’s Metagame. Depending on your perspective this is either fantastic (a non-rotating format with four viable top tier strategies across seven sub-archetypes) or less than ideal (their dominance is squeezing out other potential builds). The more time passes the more I am in the latter camp in part because of how much ubiquity there is amongst multiple archetypes.

Let’s take Affinity, for example. This strategy often features the Artifact Lands, Deadly Dispute, and Galvanic Blast. If you look at the red strategies they also heavily lean on artifacts to enable Galvanic Blast. Broodscale decks run Deadly Dispute and some Jund varieties run the Bridges to accelerate with Cleansing Wildfire. Moving away from combo most midrange Golgari and Jund decks also run a Deadly Dispute package, with one build also running Bridges and Cleansing Wildfire. While there are four main buckets, there are, in some ways, three things to do – Red, Terror, or Dispute. This may be a reductive exploration but at the same time it is reflective of the top of the competitive metagame.

How many things should one be able to do in a non-rotating format? In my opinion three is too few and four is not quiet there either. If the top of the format only comprised say, half of the Winner’s Metagame it would allow for further development of Tier Two (and below) strategies that could potentially gain a foothold and find success. It is not necessarily that there are too few things to do but rather that these elements are clearly a lap or two ahead of everyone else. After the Big Four the next best macro-strategy in Pauper revolves around Spellstutter Sprite and it comes in at 8.43% of the Winner’s Metgame, and then it’s another massive drop off to Mono White Aggro at 4.2%.

Part of this is the nature of commons. Unlike Pioneer, Modern, and Legacy there fairly few singularly powerful cards around which you can build an archetype. The Initiative and Monarch both exist but have moved into a support role rather than a focus of the format. Instead of leaning on individual cards Pauper decks are built largely on layered synergies which means that the best packets will often rise to the top. The format has plenty of options but given the landscape means that the Big Four are the best things one can be doing at the moment.

Seeing as the upcoming releases are Innistrad Remastered and Aetherdrift, the chances for a Modern Horizons 3 level shake up are slim. Standard Legal sets rarely have a massive impact and neither Time Spiral Remastered nor Ravnica Remastered did much to nudge the metagame. It is possible that the only way to things to change would be for a forced rotation via cards being added or removed from the banned list. That being said it is also possible that the next two sets will buck the trend and make waves so nothing is set in stone.

There, of course, is another issue. While the format is currently rote in many ways it is balanced. Pulling or pushing on one of these core decks too strongly could upset that and cause another series of issues. Words similar to these have been written before and the solution is never obvious or prescribed. All this being said it is hard to ignore what recently happened with Modern and the massive shakeup – and excitement – that flowed from the changes to that format’s card pool.

What could be done? Lots, to be sure and I am not going to speculate on individual cards for the reason previously discussed. Still the question that lingers on my mind is how much would need to change for there to be emergent strategies? There are tons of established decks available that could assert themselves if an opening existed, but would they keep Pauper exciting or would the discourse return to this point in six months’ time?

What steps would you take with the format? Do you believe anything should be done? What cards are in your sights? Would you take a minimalist or maximalist approach to things?

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Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Well, I’m back.

For those of you who don’t follow me on social media I was out of commission last week with a case of Shingles. I’m on the mend and have finally updated my metagame tracker. In summary, Kuldotha Red was the best deck the weekend covering December 6-8, Grixis Affinity was the deck to beat for the first month of Foundations season, and Jund Broodscale had a relatively gaudy set of results December 13-15. And honestly, this all tracks. These are three of the better strategies available in Pauper and to have them all put up solid results over those given time spans is to be expected.

Expectations. That’s a word that’s going to come up a lot in this piece. Yesterday the Pauper Format Panel released an update video where we announced that there would not be any changes to banned list at this time. The reaction has been mixed, which should not be a shock. As a non-rotating format, Pauper is constantly being pulled between the past and future, with old cards providing the inertia for the momentum of new releases. In my opinion, Pauper is doing a solid job of synthesizing these two extremes, producing a format that pulls from the entire card pool. I will be the first to concede that there have been some strategies that could stand to take some time out of the spotlight, but given everything Pauper is in a pretty good spot.

A lot of the discourse in the wake of the ban (lack of) announcement has centered on a few cards. There is the Basking Broodscale–Sadistic Glee combo, a strategy some feel is too good while others see it as crowding out other potential combo decks. While Broodscale combo is good it is not significantly above the power curve of the format. Additionally it provides the format with a sustainably competitive combo deck for the first time in several years. Is Broodscale pushing other combo builds to the fringes? Yes, but the reality is many were already there in the first place.

Another target of ire is Deadly Dispute. The treasure left behind by the draw spell is more than a little bit of value and some feel that this discount at the register has pushed the black spell – and the associated card advantage package – over the line. While Grixis Affinity does benefit from Deadly Dispute, it also is doing a ton of work helping to support black based midrange, and having strong black midrange decks available in the format is usually indicative of healthy metagame. These decks naturally prey on creature strategies and their viability means that attacking and blocking matters on some metric. Would removing Dispute from the format in favor of Reckoner’s Bargain or Fanaticial Offering remove this view from Pauper’s landscape? Potentially, but there’s a similar chance the decks would just take a step back and we can debate that another day.

The finally topic of conversation centered around Writhing Chrysalis. The bane of Modern Horizons 3 Limited has proven to be a real threat in Pauper. It comes down early and can quickly get itself out of Galvanic Blast range while also proving a challenge for Skred. It also dodges Hydroblast and while it does fall to Cast Down, Snuff Out, Journey to Nowhere, and a litany of other removal spells it often leaves behind material. That the Chrysalis also blocks flyers means that cards like Glint Hawk – format stalwarts – are finding themselves on the outside looking in. There is a population of players that feel Chrysalis is too good for the format and needs to be banned. It has crowded out a significantly number of creatures while also rendering certain removal spells less effective.

In my opinion, the presence of Writhing Chrysalis in the Pauper metagame is a good sign. Despite everything, Chrysalis largely comes down to being a mountain of stats. It attacks and blocks, often above rate for the mana invested into it, while also providing a sticky threat. That is, it can leave behind some materail that has limited utility, but if not answered it will stick around. Like other massive creatures before it (Gurmag Angler, Tolarian Terror) and creatures that dictate their plane of battle (Kor Skyfisher), Chrysalis helps to set the parameters for what sort of singular threat is reasonable in the format.

Let’s go back to Kor Skyfisher as an example. This card has been vital to the format for years as both a creature with power and toughness and as part of a card flow engine. For years if you wanted to win in the air, and were not planning on going wide, your creature had to line up well with Kor Skyfisher. Going wide still worked since you could always go around a singular Skyfisher. The roles are currently inverted, with Chrysalis keeping singular Skyfishers at bay while bird tokens enhanced with Guardians’ Pledge doing the heavy lifting.

Now none of this is to say that Chrysalis may not prove to be over the line eventually. Currently, however, it represents a push towards midrange. A threat that can dominate on its own if left untouched but one with available interplay. There are spells that handle the Eldrazi and many of them already see play. That being said sometimes regular shifts in the metagame, where formerly middling strategies emerge as contenders, can prove to be unsettling, especially if things were unchanged for so long.

That, more than anything, may be at the root of some gripes. The latest format defining creature did little to bring old decks back to prominence and instead gave us multiple varieties of Jund.

Is that such a bad thing?

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, you can sign up for my Patreon starting at just $1.

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Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

The first week of a new season of Magic Online Pauper Challenges is always filled with hope. Hope that the new set will shake things up – even a little – and help to dislodge the top decks. This wellspring is usually quashed relatively quickly. It is a rare occurrence indeed that a new common upsets the apple cart. Foundations is not exception to this rule. Much like previous non-Horizons, non-Masters releases, the set has brought relatively little to the party in its debut. Similar to previous “First Week” breakdowns, a familiar face has risen up bearing the beacon of hope for a change…but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Mono White Aggro is not a complete unknown in Pauper. It has been one of the better underplayed decks for much of the past year, routinely cropping up to Top 8 a Challenge and put up a consistent 5-0 in the League. The deck wins via combat, usually in a go-wide manner with multiple small creatures backed up by Guardians’ Pledge. It can leverage its superior attacking and blocking capability to turn Prismatic Strands into a one sided board wipe while also using the staple to protect its own life total.

The deck had a rather obscene showing this past weekend with five total Top 32 appearances and a whopping 80% conversion rate to the Top 8. Based upon overall record it would make sense to see two copies of Mono White in the elimination rounds, not four. Mono White made up 5.21% of the Top 32 metagame and increased upon that share to 8.64% of the Winner’s Metagame. It had the third best Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement with 0.38. For a comparison, the deck achieved 1.36% of the Winner’s Metagame during Duskmourn season with a cumulative AMSAR of -0.12. As for the final week of Duskmourn, Mono White did not make a Top 32 appearance.

Now let’s be clear – comparing one week of events to seven is not apples to apples. At the same time it is a bit of a stark contrast. So what gives? While not a massive innovation, Suture Priest has gained popularity over the past few months as a soft answer to Basking Broodscale combo. Most Broodscale decks will have an answer to the Phyrexian somewhere in their list, but if it buys time for a lethal attack then the Priest was well worth the price of inclusion. Thraben Charm is also a well positioned modal spell which gives Mono White a little more punch. A below rate creature removal spell that also take out graveyards or problematic enchantments hits several key elements in the format. All of this seems to be enough to make Mono White a reasonable, if not exciting, option.

So what led the way over the first weekend of Foundations? Grixis Affinity was the most popular deck on the weekend with 15 appearances in the Top 32, along with three Top 8 finishes and a win. An AMSAR score of 0.98 placed it about a win better than the average Top 32 deck. That being said a Win+ ratio of 0.60 places it firmly in the Top 16 for a mean finish (Mono White had a raw Win+ ratio of 1.2, which is a hair better than a Top 8 finish; the adjusted Win+ ratio for Mono White was 0.4, so just a bit behind Grixis).

I do not want to prognosticate too much about what next week might hold, mostly because not much has changed. Grixis Affinity remains a top choice while Kuldotha Red and Tolarian Terror builds are not far behind. Jeskai Ephemerate had a pair of ninth place finishes, and the deck might pick up steam if it can find the right mix of answers. Two decks found a spot for new cards, with Gruul Ramp picking up Bushwhack and the Sunday winning WonderWalls Combo deck adding Squad Rallier to the mix. Dwynen’s Elite has also been making appearances in Elves builds. Pilfer has perhaps had the largest impact, giving black midrange and combo a way to defend their game plans. None of these updates are going to usher in a new era of Pauper but they could nudge things.

Given everything here is what I would be looking at heading into the weekend. First and foremost have a plan for Grixis Affinity. This does not mean loading up your sideboard with Gorilla Shaman and its ilk. Instead, Grixis Affinity should be treated like Kolaghan’s Command Grixis Control from 2018 era Legacy. It is a value deck that leverages low effective mana costs to build an advantage turn over turn. Grixis Affinity excels at efficiency and has enough card advantage to power through to a midgame. Getting under this deck and sidestepping its resiliency is key to keeping them off balance. In this way the success of Mono White, which tools to apply consistent pressure, makes sense. The key, therefore, will be having a strategy that can get under Grixis while going over the top of Mono White. Flaring Pain looks to be a key sideboard card this weekend and if you can figure out how to make Kiln Fiend and Crackling Cyclops sing then you may just have an edge of the format for the next series of events.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, you can sign up for my Patreon starting at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

And if the Second Foundation had our backs I’d be sleeping a little bit better tonight

The Ergs – “Second Foundation”

Confounding. That is the word I keep coming back to when I discuss Duskmourn season. After seven weeks we have finally escaped Magic’s most haunted house and now enter the new world of Foundations. While the latest set is not likely to have a massive impact on Pauper (Patrons can check out my set review here; it is also available as a one time purchase) it nonetheless allows us to turn the page on a series of Challenges that in many ways left me perplexed.

Historically it was rare when someone with a losing record would finish within the Top 32 of a Pauper Challenge. These events, while not as popular as other offerings on Magic Online, would attract a large enough crowd to ensure that at worst an even win-loss record would find itself in 32nd place. This season seventeen of the twenty-two Challenges featured a negative win-loss record in the Top 32. Now over a long enough timeline this does come out in the wash but in isolation it does give me a bit of pause. We can (and will) get to the numbers later but for now I want take a few guesses as to the “why”.

First and foremost earlier this season Daybreak announced a change to the prizing structure of Challenges. While this has been walked back some the tournaments no longer produce the same expected value in prizing. Whether we like it or not this absolutely factors into some players choice to participate. If you only have so many hours in the day and the material reward entering an account is part of the calculus then it makes sense that some players would take their temporal investment elsewhere. To be clear I am not trying to make a value judgement of people who grind events for the value. Motivation is personal and whatever pushes folks to participate and as long as they do so within the bounds of good manners they’re a-ok in my book.

Another factor could be the state of Pauper. While the format itself appears healthy there are some who do not feel that to be the case. Pauper is in a decent spot with the best decks not that far ahead from those in the second tier. That being said the top of the format is largely stable. The best decks for the past seven weeks are not entirely dissimilar from the best decks over Bloomburrow season and Modern Horizons 3 season before that.

When does stability turn into stagnation? That seems to be the root of some of this dissatisfaction. Grixis Affinity and Kuldotha Red, for example, have been two of the best decks in Pauper for over two years. Other decks have emerged as contenders but the aforementioned duo have been a constant presence. In some ways this is good for Pauper as it gives the competitive landscape a North Star by which their can orient their positions in the metagame. At the same time queuing into the same decks day after day, week after week – for years mind you – can get tiresome. That being said I believe Pauper is in a period of stability rather than stagnation. Yes, the veteran strategies remain strong but recently there has been a proliferation of builds based around other engines that have proven themselves to be true contenders.

Now – say it with me – correlation does not equal causation. It is possible that these factors, and others, have contributed to the smaller Challenge fields. It is also plausible that these variables have had some-to-no impact. I am not here to point fingers but rather to provide potential explanations as it serves the results of the events.

Speaking of those results, the smaller Challenge sizes seem to have been a boon to Kuldotha Red. Spoiler alert – the deck tops my end of season Power Rankings. The deck ended Duskmourn season with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 0.87 – up from 0.51 during Bloomburrow. Kuldotha Red took up 17.61% of the Top 32 Metagame and 18.81% of the Winner’s Metagame. If these numbers were to sustain that would indicate a problem. That being said Kuldotha Red is trending downwards, with 20.1% of the Winner’s Metagame over the first four weeks as opposed to 16.92% over the final three weeks of the season.

Grixis Affinity had a strong -if not as impressive – season with a final aMSAR of 0.6. At 10.8% of the Top 32 metagame and 12.07% of the Winner’s Metagame the deck falls far more in line with what we have come to expect for a top deck in the format over the past few seasons. This is a step back from the deck’s Bloomburrow production with aMSAR of 1.09 and 14.13% of the Winner’s Metagame, but still indicative of a deck that belongs at the top.

So this brings us back to the confounding elements. Kuldotha Red got to add Clockwork Percussionist to the mix which was definitely a boon, but likely not enough to push Red to the levels it achieved. Taking everything together it is plausible that Red was able to take advantage of the smaller Challenge sizes as well as a boost in popularity to improve its standings. As seen in this video, the player collected data shows that Kuldotha Red has a sub 50% win rate. It seems reasonable, then, that Red is probably closer to its Bloomburrow performance than its Duskmourn showing. In other words, it remains an important, and perhaps defining, part of the Pauper metagame while not being so utterly dominant as to warp the format.

So had does the rest of the format take shape with these two on the medal stand? Broodscale Combo remains a contender, with both Jund and Golgari builds occupying spots in the Top 8 of the season. These decks are able to win from multiple angles and, considering the variety in their construction, can keep opponents guessing on exactly how they will execute the victory formation until it is too late.

Tolarian Terror decks also performed well during Duskmourn season. Blue Terror, Dimir Terror, and Izzet Control all find themselves in the Top 8 of the Power Rankings. Blue Terror continues to provide a quick clock while keeping opponent’s off balance while the two color varieties can play a slower game backed up with removal. Fast 5/5s remain a good way to end games in Pauper, even in the face of aggression.

Where does that leave things heading into Foundations season? Right now I would not hedge too much against Kuldotha Red. Don’t get me wrong as it remains a top deck in the format. Having a reasonable plan – whether its blocking, life gain, or Fogs – is a must. After that it is all about having a relatively compact win condition. Notably absent from the best decks this time around are decks like Elves and Gruul Ramp, both of which need a critical mass of mana to work. It would not surprise me to see Elves surge a bit with Dwynen’s Elite making its debut. Another thing to consider are the sweepers in Pauper – damage based removal is making a big push at the moment. Because of this it would not be a shock for midrange aggressive white decks to return to the fold, especially those that have the ability to survive the current crop of Toxin Analysis fueled Wraths.

Duskmourn Season Power Rankings

8. Golgari Fog

7. Dimir Terror

6. Izzet Control

5. Golgari Broodscale

4. Blue Terror

3. Jund Broodscale

2. Grixis Affinity

1. Kuldotha Red

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, you can sign up for my Patreon starting at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Today’s post is a bit shorter than usual. It is election day here in the United States and I encourage all of you who live in the US to vote. This election will have wide reaching ramifications not just for this country but the world at large.

Foundations is almost here and it looks exciting. I wrote my thoughts about the set here (free to Patrons) but for the next few weeks we are still trying to make our way through Duskmourn. This past weekend saw three Challenges on Magic Online and the results were intriguing to say the very least. Not only did we see a return of some old stalwarts to the forefront of Pauper – looking at your Dimir Faeries – but we also saw a clustering at the top of the Winner’s Meta where several decks performed similarly. Let’s dive in.

The three best decks on the weekend, going by Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement, where Blue Terror (0.91), Kuldotha Red (0.89), and Grixis Affinity (0.83). While these three decks being at the top of the metagame is not a surprise, the lack of spread is something of note. All three of these decks are within 1/10th of a win from each other and all three performed less than one win above the average Top 32 deck. Compare this to last week where the top three decks were Golgari Fog (3.34), Grixis Affinity (3.2), and Golgari Broodscale (2.39). The dip from third to fourth place last week was 0.87; this week that spread was 0.52 (technically the fourth best deck was Dredge with an aMSAR of 0.37 – a delta of 0.46 – but Dredge had two total appearances to Jund Broodscale’s eleven Top 32 finishes).

So what does this mean? Last week the format appeared to be incredibly lopsided while the more recent run of events makes everything look much more competitive. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle. Now that we are six weeks into Duskmourn season we are seeing the metagame start to coalesce around known quantities and adjusting as such. I do not believe the format is as close at the top as the last three challenges seemed to indicate, nor do I think the wild spread is representative. Instead Pauper appears to be a dynamic format where decks, by and large, have relatively even matchups (with some outliers, of course). Clearly Pauper has some top tier decks as evidenced by the consistent performance of various Tolarian Terror builds and Grixis Affinity, but we have also seen some movement in second tier strategies as we have seen with the revitalization of Dimir Faeries and the reemergence of Jund Wildfire.

Dimir Faeries is one of those decks that never really dies. It is a midrange control deck that leans heavily on its creature suite for card advantage. Ninja of the Deep Hours and Thorn of the Black Rose both keep your hand full and Spellstutter Sprite remains one of the best things you can be doing in Pauper. The rest of the deck is padded out with interaction and while the spells themselves might not be flexible, the suite itself is. Dimir Faeries can adjust to most metagames by tweaking the exact mix of countermagic and removal. From the full suite of Snuff Outs we can infer that at the moment the biggest threat in the metagame likely is not Gurmag Angler and having a free answer to almost the entire format is a pretty big game. The fact that Snuff Out kills Basking Broodscale should not be underestimated. Given this decks relatively strong performance (aMSAR of 0.20), I would expect Elves to make a push next weekend. Elves has been rising in the rankings as of late thanks in part to the addition of Nyxborn Hydra as another way to convert mana into damage and while the strategy clearly has some weaknesses people are innovating with their lists and I am excited to see what comes next.

The other deck I wanted to talk about today is Jund Wildfire. Another strategy enabled by the Bridges from Modern Horizons 2, Jund Wildfire is a more true midrange deck that leans hard on artifact synergy. Previous iterations went with Bleak Coven Vampires or Avenging Hunter as a top end, but the latest builds tend to end on Writhing Chrysalis. The build featured above also pairs a sweeper – Krark-Clan Shaman – with Toxin Analysis for a way to clear the ground and gain a ton of life. This build also has Nyxborn Hydra as a way to win the game late while all the best “metalcraft” cards in black and red. This deck is less flexible than Dimir Faeries as it lacks counterspells but if games come down to board presence this seems like a good choice. All that being said I would not be so bullish on Jund Wildfire next weekend due in no small part to the strength of Dimir Faeries.

Where does that leave things heading into next weekend? Terror decks, Grixis Affinity, and Kuldotha Red are not going anywhere and we can count on Dimir Faeries making its presence felt. While Jund Wildfire may not be able to keep pace there are some reasons to believe that Broodscale Combo will continue to take up a decent amount of the metagame. I would want to be a Snuff Out deck that could leverage Gurmag Angler (to avoid other copies of Snuff Out) while also having access to a way to survive early attacks. Bleak Coven Vampire is a bit of a risk and Vampire Sovereign may just be too slow and leaning into cards like Lone Missionary might be necessary, if a bit uninspiring. Is it time for Orzhov Gates to shine? Probably not but it is nice to dream.

There’s a larger story at play here that is starting to come into focus. While a lot of the discourse in Pauper enters around the strength of the red deck, the format is largely defined by its ability to answer threats. Thanks to cards like Nuxborn Hydra and Writhing Chrysalis we are seeing more decks run creatures that are more or less just big bodies that come with built in resilience. This is important to keep in mind as stopping the first wave might no longer be enough and having the biggest blocker standing could be all that stands between a win and a loss.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, you can sign up for my Patreon starting at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!