NerdtotheCore

March 8th Pauper Challenge Breakdown

A lot has happened since the March 8th Pauper Challenge. Boros Monarch won the tournament and no one deck stood head and shoulders above the rest in performance.

If I am a little more somber than usual, well, you just need to look at what’s going on in the world around us. The Coronavirus Pandemic has affected the way we live our lives. Professional Magic is taking a hiatus, as are other distractions like professional sports. All of this is aimed at flattening the curve – putting distance between people to slow the rate of infection and allow the health care system to absorb critical patients of both Coronavirus and other health needs.

Personally, this is tough. I am immunocompromised – although not as severely as others – and I have had to cancel plans. I worry every cough is evidence of something more. I worry I bought enough of the correct supplies, that my toddler son will be able to get the activity and socializing he needs; that at some point I’ll be able to yell at my screen about the bad decisions the Mets are making.

It’s times like these that I am happy to have Magic Online in my life. I’ve not been on the platform as much as of late – real life Commander has taken precedence. But despite the sun being out as I write this, I am looking forward to hopping back in the queues with gusto. I am excited to draft a Pauper Cube online for a change.

I’m lucky. I have a full time job. Writing about Magic is something I do to help with the bills but it is by no means my only source of income. Other content creators are not that lucky. So here’s what I am going to do: any money I make on my Patreon for March and April (at least), I will disperse to content creatores who are more heavily impacted by the reduction in Magic events. What I want you to do is tell me who you think deserves the money.

I’ll keep the content coming, but think of the casters, cosplayers, judges, vendors, artists, and more. Let me know who needs help and I’ll do what I can.

The March 1st Pauper Showcase

What happens when something broken gets fixed? We’re starting to see the answer. The March 1st Pauper Showcase put Pauper on a larger stage. Showcases are intended to attract a larger segment of the Magic Online player pool. March 1st saw Hall of Famer Paul Rietzl make Top 8 and Players Tour Top 8 competitor Tommy Ashton finish in the money.

More importantly, these slightly higher profile events help to test the hypothesis that there exists two Pauper formats: those of the die hard players and one that exists when the format opens up. On Sunday, as has been the case in the past when the player pool expands, the format looked far from solved.

There are a few things that jump out from Sunday. First is the pedestrian performance by Flicker Tron. Yes, one deck made Top 8 and yes, it averaged a Top 16 finish. At the same time it was out-performed by both variants of Boros as the average Boros finish was better than the average Tron finish. Mystic Sanctuary decks took a hit, which makes sense in a world of Boros. Stompy was nowhere to be found and Azorius Familiars won the day.

Let’s posit, then that Flicker Tron is the best deck. It makes sense – it has a combo-prison end game that can lock out almost every deck in the format. Mystic Sanctuary tempo decks, whether they be Delver or another variety, are able to pack a ton of countermagic to disrupt Tron’s plan. And it isn’t any one Mystic Sanctuary deck but rather the weight of multiple that could help keep the behemoth down.

At the same time this can help to explain the surge in Boros decks. Boros has a traditionally good matchup against Mystic Sanctuary decks. As such is appears that the metagame cycle has righted itself. Yet where is Stompy? The metagame stalwart also has a good matchup against Delver but was nowhere to be found on Sunday. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues.

This chart includes every list with ~2% or above (4 appearances) or a Top 8. I want to draw attention to the Win+:Volume column. A score of 1 indicates the deck averages a Top 16 finish. With at least 2% of the entire volume, the best decks by this metric are Flicker Tron, Delver, Boros Bully, and Boros Monarch; Stompy is not that far behind. Yet the sheer volume of Flicker Tron could skew the numbers. While its metagame volume is steadily declining week over week, it still sets the tone for the format.

Going into this weekend I would be prepared for a resurgence of Tron as the metagame is ripe for a return.

Tier deck I’d play: Delver. I think loading up on counterspells is a solid plan to beat Tron. I would considered sideboard copies of Vulshok Morningstar and Neurok Stealthsuit as a way to fight Boros decks.

Rogue deck I’d play: Mono-White Tokens. I think Battle Screech is well positioned at the moment and the ability to win on turn four with Guardians’ Pledge should not be discounted.

Two Weeks of Pauper Data

It’s good to be back.

I want to start this off with an apology to you, the reader, and especially to my Patrons. I try to put this recap out every week but sometimes life takes precedence. Last week was one of those weeks. We had a health scare in my family that involved a lengthy ER visit. While everything is back to normal and we are recovering, the time I would have spent writing was focused on my family. And I don’t regret a second of it.

But here we are. It’s been two weeks since I’ve said anything and the format has shifted quite a bit. It all started on the February 16th Pauper Challenge. After weeks of sustained excellence, Flicker Tron took a hit. And an old friend emerged at the top of the heap.

Delver decks are back. While these decks all had some different flourishes they skewed aggressive in their creature suite. They all also packed four copies of Counterspell and two copies of Deprive, backed up with Mystic Sanctuary. One of the best ways to stop Flicker Tron from doing its thing is to simply stop it from doing its thing. While these cards are a significant sacrifice for the sake of board development, it can be worth eschewing board position to set up a solid defense.

Some of the Delver decks opted to run Force Spike, but almost always one or two copies. This seems suspect as Force Spike is at its best in the early game, meaning you want at least three copies. The spell does retain some utility later on in games when mana is tight and counterwars abound, but two still doesn’t sit right.

I want to draw attention to the column labeled Win+:Vol.. This ratio approximates an average finish, and a ratio of 1 here means a deck finishes X-2 on average. For the first time in a long time, Flicker Tron dropped below 1. Meanwhile, Delver and Stompy (the deck that won the Challenge) are the two archetypes (with above 2% of the metagame volume) that are above that line.

So of course the most recent weekend saw the aftershocks of Delver day. Let’s start with the February 22nd PTQ.

We only received Top 16 data for the PTQ. And Boros Monarch came out on top. Fun fact: this was Boros Monarch’s first finish of note in the Theros Beyond Death season. The deck had been sidelined by Flicker Tron but when Delver and Stompy come out, Boros Monarch can shine. The Bully version of Boros also put up solid numbers and Burn shined, compared to its usual results. While there is not a lot to glean from this result, it does reinforce the hypothesis that Pauper Challenge regulars approach the metagame differently than the wider MTGO ecosystem.

Now what about yesterday’s Challenge?

February 23rd saw the return of Flicker Tron, but not at the expense of Boros. Monarch won back to back events, reaffirming its role in the metagame. We also see a decent number of Mystic Sanctuary decks as well as a decline in more traditional aggressive strategies: Stompy, Red Deck Wins, etc.

The trend over the past two weeks has pushed the metagame towards midrange. Delver and Monarch operate in the scrum – the portion of the metagame where interactive elements are of high value. If I were preparing to play in next week’s Challenge and I did not want to play Tron, I would try to find a Clock. That is, a deck that could beat Boros and Tron before defensive measures come online. I would also want a deck that could go toe-to-toe with Delver.

I’m high on Battle Screech strategies for March 1st and, somewhat conversely, I’m also bullish on Pestilence strategies. If you are on an aggressive Battle Screech deck, I wouldn’t sideboard to beat Tron – your goal should be to run force multipliers and win before they get a foothold. For Pestilence decks, bring in the disruption to tax the hand and exile the graveyard.

February 9th Pauper Challenge Breakdown

How do you discuss a boulder?

Do you talk about its exterior? Its composition? How much of this depends on where you encounter the mass? Are you intimately familiar with the surroundings or is this boulder entirely new?

What is your perspective? Are you experiencing this boulder as a passing moment in time – racing by on foot? Are you some cosmic being, perceiving the formation and entropy of said boulder in the blink of a human eye?

The February 9th Pauper Challenge presents the Pauper metagame as a boulder as perceived by a human. It is large, stagnant, and tough to move. This may run counter to the end result – Delver coming out on top – but I want to dig a little deeper.

These are the results from last week’s challenge. Elves and Izzet Faeries split the finals with Affinity and Flicker Tron putting up strong finishes in the Top 8. The metagame did adjust to three of of these elements. Cards like Electrickery, Ancient Grudge, and Gorilla Shaman saw more play on February 9th. But Flicker Tron is a boulder around which the world of Pauper revolves. The deck is hard to hate out but there are other avenues of attack, like racing.

There is a distinct lack of aggressive decks in the metagame. And on top of all that, the Top 8 looks nearly identical, with a lone Pestilence Control deck making it over a second copy of Affinity. It is not that the metagame is solved as much as there is just not a ton of space to find success. Yes, decks like WonderWalls will crop up and make waves for a few weeks but the beat of that butterfly wing will not spark the tropical storm to unseat FlickerTron.

I started writing these metagame breakdowns as a way to track the changes in Pauper from week to week. Right now, the amount of change is lacking. Throne of Eldraine season ended with Flicker Tron taking down over 29% of all Top 8s. Four weeks into Theros Beyond Death season that number sits at 31.25%.

Something has to give. At some point the boulder will move or decay. Or maybe the world around it will crumble to dust first.

February 2nd Pauper Challenge Breakdown

On February 2nd, Izzet Faeries and Elves split the finals of the Pauper Challenge. Affinity took down two slots in the Top 8 and Flicker Tron took down three slots in the elimination rounds.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.

I’m not going to dive to deep into these results as there is not a ton to say at this point. The metagame is largely settled and while there is some jostling for position, things are stable.

Stagnant metagames are not inherently bad. The problem arises when one deck in a stagnant metagame has enough good matchups that it throws the balance out of whack.

Looking at Pauper, there is a fairly vibrant metagame beneath the top tier. There are tons of powerful options that all have interplay against other decks in the metagame. The two most potent synergy decks are Affinity and Elves. These two decks have natural checks that can exist in sideboards and maindecks while not diluting a deck against the rest of the field.

And here we come to an issue with Flicker Tron. Not only does it take up a larger portion of the challenge metagame, but it has no checks that are effective and useful against the rest of the field.

Forgive me if this post is shorter than usual and doesn’t get into the weeds. The simple truth is that not much has changed – if anything, the metagame has regressed (there were zero Theros Beyond Death cards in the Top 32). Until something comes along to help keep Tron in check, the deck will continue to dominate the metagame.

January 26th Pauper Showcase Breakdown

The Problem with the Challenge Metagame

Sunday, January 26th was the first Pauper Showcase of 2020. Format Showcases are replacing Format Playoffs. This means that if a player has enough Qualifier Points, regardless of format on Magic Online, they could conceivably participate in the Pauper Showcase.

And they participate they did.

While there were plenty of format regulars in the running, there were a similar number of names that belonged to non-Pauper die-hards. That’s a good thing for the long term health and growth of the format.

The metagame looks rather similar to that of a regular Challenge with one glaring difference. Flicker Tron under performed against it’s usual placing. While it claimed the lone undefeated spot in the six Swiss rounds, it only had one other deck placing in the Top 16. Now this could be variance but I want to show you all something else.

This is the metagame breakdown from the last major Magic Online tournament that took entrants from a wider pool – the October 26th PTQ. The Top 8 was fairly diverse; the Top 32 was filled with the archetypes that one would expect. Tron was also at the party but didn’t steal the show.

Herein is a potential problem with the Challenge metagame. The Pauper Challenges are at the same time every week and they cater to the Pauper players that can make that time slot work. If in these circles Flicker Tron has a reputation of being the best deck – a ban-worthy deck – then it should follow that people should play the deck. And so people play Tron or a strategy they believe can put up a fight. And the process continues with very little changing from week to week.

Pauper, for whatever reason, is prone to information cascades.

It could be the lack of incentives outside major events. It could be the fact that there is a sentiment the format is forgotten by Wizards. An aside: No it isn’t. Pauper has gotten an immense amount of support – more than it has any right to have received – and remains a vital part of the Magic Online competitive ecosystem. It could just be that Flicker Tron is powerful enough to get free wins.

It may very well be that Flicker Tron in its current iteration is too powerful, that something should be banned. Still, the disconnect between results when format regulars play and when the wider competitive world sets their sights on Pauper give me pause.

At the same time, it could very well be both. Regulars could gravitate to the deck because it really is that good. Non-regulars could get lucky when queued up in Pauper or they could have a skill set that the average Pauper Challenge player lacks. Wizards has all the data and we’ll have to see what they do with it in the future.

January 19th Pauper Challenge Breakdown

Theros Beyond Death is here and with it a new season! January 19th marked the first Pauper Challenge where the new set was legal. Still, Pauper is a non-rotating format and the inertia was on full display in Sunday’s six round affair.

Let’s start at the top: Flicker Tron won the first challenge of the season. The winner – kasa – went with a creature heavy build that featured one copy of Custodi Squire. They also ran a copy of Unwind, a card popularized by the Italian Pauper community. Kasa also upped the cantrip artifact count with one copy each of Guild Globe and Golden Egg. Unlike the other two Tron decks in the Top 8, kasa opted not to run Rain of Revelation.

There were three Mystic Sanctuary decks in the Top 8 as well: two copies of Dimir Delver and one Izzet Delver. Izzet Delver had one of its best showings in several months, with every Izzet tempo deck this week running Delver of Secrets. This is a change from last season, where the prevailing wisdom was to cut the one drop in favor of additional Faeries. These three decks all ran into each other, with the Dimir Delver players in a Top 8 mirror, before the survivor fell to Izzet Delver. Meanwhile, kasa beat two copies of Flicker Tron on their way to the Top 8.

So what does this Challenge tell us? The metagame has not shifted dramatically from the end of Throne of Eldraine season. That’s not great as one of the prevailing refrains when it comes to dominant decks is “let’s wait until the next set”. Now it is still early in the release cycle and cards are relatively hard to come by. At the same point, if a new strategy could emerge to take down the top decks, I am sure someone would have busted it out early to try and spike a tournament.

One player did run Theros Beyond Death cards to a Top 32 finish: Mathonical. Taking the Green Ponza deck, they added the two Escape creatures from the new set to give the deck some late game punch.

A similar deck made the Top 8 of the Pauper Champs and that event was dominated by Tron. The issue with these resource denial decks is that if you draw the pieces too late they are largely useless. The bigger issue with Tron is their mana base tends to be resistant to land destruction thanks to Ghostly Flicker. That being said, I like where Mathonical’s build is and I would try to find a home for some number of Outmuscle just to add a piece of interaction.

Sunday January 12th Wrap

Sunday, January 12th was a big day in the world of Magic Online Pauper. The final Challenge of the Throne of Eldraine season took place almost concurrently with the Pauper Champs, the latter of which qualified the winner for the Magic Online Championship Series and a shot at the Players Tour. While Flicker Tron did not win either of these events, it took down 9 of the 16 Top 8 slots. Out of the remaining 7 decks, 3 were Mystic Sanctuary decks. The winning decks, however, were something completely different.

You cannot count Bogles out. The archetype has a number of big wins to its credit, including two Mythic Championship Qualifier wins. Kirblinxy put Essence Harvest in the Fling/Soul’s Fire slot. This makes a ton of sense considering that Prismatic Strands is a heavily played card in the metagame but it also happens to get around Dispel and Hydroblast. They also skimped on Rancor and Cartouche of Solidarity, predicting a decline in Edict style removal and decks that could block. It is fitting that rather than stepping over Tron, Kirblinxy had to beat three different decks – Flicker Tron, Mono Green Land Destruction, and Bant Familiars. For their effort they now have a shot at the MOCS.

Mikamimtg beat three Flicker Tron decks in their Top 8. Slivers got a shot in the singular talon-tipped arm from Modern Horizons. Bladeback Sliver gives the hive mind a way to win around Moment’s Peace and Stonehorn Dignitary. Running red means Hunter Sliver is a reasonable inclusion, picking off blockers with impunity. It also helps that Slivers can easily amass an army that can dwarf Myr Enforcers without running fragile lands. Slivers does have to dip into a third color to work but Gemhide Sliver helps to mitigate that in the long run while doing a poor impression of Priest of Titiania.

The metagame is absolutely diverse. At the same time, the top tier is a completely different animal. Flicker Tron decks were a full quarter of the Challenge Top 32, with nearly 43% of the Win+ score. The archetype also dominated the Champs Top 8.

Theros Beyond Death is right around the corner. At the onset of the season it is clear that Flicker Tron is public enemy number one. While it may have lagged some, it started and ended Throne of Eldraine season as the best deck in the Challenge metgame.

Win+ measures a deck against an X-3 record. A Win+ score of 1 usually equates to a Top 8. Out of all these decks – those that had 2% of the total metagame volume, only Flicker Tron had a Win+ average greater than 1. It took down 29% of all Top 8 slots and won a full third of the Challenges.

That’s dominance.

The deck also warped the metagame around it. The next 4 most popular archetypes all had access to red, meaning they could run Pyroblast/Red Elemental Blast. The ability to counter Flicker Tron’s key spells or kill key creatures, all in one card, makes running red not only a must, but means that outside of Burn it isn’t out of line to dedicate almost half your sideboard for a single matchup. While the Blasts may help against Delver style decks, they hardly need the level of overloading that Tron requires. If you’re running red against Tron and don’t have a blast in your opener game two, are you even in the game?

That’s dominance.

Commander Corner: Hakim Lore Weaver

These days when I play paper Magic it tends to be Commander.

It’s not that I don’t love draft or Pauper or whatever else you throw my way. It’s just that, given the realities of my existence – work, family, all of this I mean seriously if you’re not worried you’re not paying attention vote vote vote – I want to spend my downtime doing absurd stuff and generally having a good time. And when I play Commander it tends to be with friends, which makes the games all the more enjoyable.

Commander also lets me flex my deckbuilding muscles a bit in a way that the more competitive formats do not allow. While I always want to win, I also want to do it in a way I enjoy. After playing Commander for years, I have come to understand a few animating elements to my gameplay.

I like Aristocrats style decks where I can sacrifice permanents for value
I like using the graveyard as a resource
I lean heavily on enchantments as they are an under-targeted card type
Having played Magic since 1994, I get a real kick out of using old cards
I also love using underplayed cards and leveraging them to my advantage

With Theros Beyond Death coming out soon I wanted to take a look at one of my decks that stands to improve from the set – Hakim, Loreweaver.

When I was putting together this deck, it wasn’t about Hakim. It was supposed to be Aboshan, Cephalid Emperor Flying Tribal. I had tons of cards lined up – Spirited Away, Favorable Winds, Stratus Walk, Magewight Stone, Illusionist’s Bracers, Gravity Well – when I noticed how many cards I had pulled were Auras, including Flight of Fancy. I remembered Hakim and decided to pull him for the build. And then I read this ruling:

“You only check if he has no Auras when activating the ability. You can use the ability multiple times in response to each other to get multiple Auras on him this way.”

All my plans changed. Here was an old Commander – clearly underpowered – that let me use the graveyard as a resource and use enchantments. And do you know what blue auras tend to do? They make your creatures harder to kill. So I was building a Voltron Commander. Blue auras also draw you a ton of cards. Flight of Fancy is the hallmark here, but Ordeal of Thassa also fits the bill (and lets you draw the cards each time you recur it).

I want to take a moment to talk about the inclusion of Eldrazi Conscription and Corrupted Conscience. These are two cards that end games in short order and toe the line of what is fun. To that end they are balanced by the fact that I am playing what is clearly an underpowered Commander in a format where trying to untap on turn six is a big ask. Just let me poison you with an eldritch wizard who rides a dragon apparently?

From there I went about finding as many cards that could manipulate auras. Crown of Ages and Skull of Orm do the job, and Arcanum Wings is just an odd one. Rootwater Matriarch is another old card that gives my auras other utility – I’m still trying to pick up a copy of Willbreaker to go with Shimmering Wings because why not? Illusory Gains was a fun find that I can get back with Hakim and then go ham on my opponent’s things. Because what’s wrong with a little chaos?

Vanishing. Oh boy when I remembered this card I realized it was perfect. You know that feeling when you’re about to knock out everyone but that one player casts Teferi’s Protection and you know all your plans are for naught? You get to do that with your Commander over and over and keep all the auras around. Thanks weird rules interactions!

There’s so many other things I like about this deck. Puting Control Magic effects on Hakim and then moving them around; killing people with Tricks of the Trade; running Forbid.

And that’s why, despite my love of all things Golgari, I think Hakim, Loreweaver is my favorite Commander deck. It certainly isn’t the best and it doesn’t always put up a good fight. What it does do, better than just about any other deck, is allow me to go exploring. So many other Commanders and strategies are well researched these days. Putting a card like Hakim in charge lets me revel in the joy of discovery over and over again.

Also it’s just fun to smash face with a wizard wearing five pairs of pants.

January 5th Pauper Challenge Breakdown

Theros Beyond Death is right around the corner; the Throne of Eldraine season is over. Next week the Pauper Format Championship will determine which player makes it to the MOCS and then a bevy of new options will enter the card pool.

But on January 5th it was more of the same. Flicker Tron took down half of the Top 8 and technically won as the finals were split. Flicker Tron was 25% of the field and took home 26% of the Win+ awarded in the Challenge. After a few weeks of being sidelined, the deck was back in force.

So how can we interpret this? Tron was clearly a dominant archetype over the 10 Challenges, 1 PTQ, and 1 Playoff that took place since Arcum’s Astrolabe was banned. Flicker Tron decks took home 26% of all Top 8 slots and the archetype made Top 8 in nearly 44% of its Top 32 appearances. Out of the other decks with at least 20 appearances – Boros Bully, Boros Monarch, Burn, Elves, Izzet Faeries, Stompy -the best conversion comes from Izzet Faeries at just over 31%.

So why was Flicker Tron able to come back so strong? My guess is that it was never any worse than it was before. The strategy had about a month of being underrepresented but still managed to put up solid numbers in the span. Considering that next week is going to feature some of the most dedicated Pauper players, I would wager we are going to see quite a few Tron decks come out to battle with a few brave souls trying to game the system by going under. Of course one of the new Dimir Delver or Izzet Faeries decks, leaning on Mystic Sanctuary, could easily win.

What deck do you think will win the Championship next week?