June 27-28 Pauper Weekend in Review

Core Set 2021 has made its way to Magic Online, as has Jumpstart. Some of the new cards – notably the Thriving Lands – are still challenging to acquire. Still, none of the cards released last week should have such a huge impact that they completely upset Pauper’s apple cart. Last week I took a look at some of the top decks from the end of Ikoria. Let’s see how my predictions ended up.

June 27 Pauper Challenge
June 28 Pauper Challenge

Stompy: “Stompy is still going to be a popular option so be prepared, but it likely will struggle for the next few weeks after that before finding a groove again.”

There were 7 Stompy decks across both events and two of them had winning records. Stompy is a deck that can succeed when people are preparing for other forms of aggression. After weeks of doing well, Stompy was due for a dip in performance.

Affinity: “Affinity is a sleeper contender. I’d look at Dispersal Shield in the Metallic Rebuke Slot.”

Affinity had a Top 8 appearance and had a Win+ of four in five appearances. While no one ran Dispersal Shield, no one ran Metallic Rebuke either. While I wasn’t wrong, I wasn’t exactly right either.

Dimir Delver: “If you’re dead set on playing Gurmag Angler, consider a Spellstutter Sprite build.”

Nope. Got this one wrong. Dimir Delver had itself a weekend. Two Top 8s, a Win, and a Win+ of 3 in 6 appearances (that’s an average record of X-1 across all these six decks). What did I miss? I think I miscalculated how well this deck was positioned against non-Izzet Faeries decks. As we’ll see later, Izzet had a tough weekend which opened a window for Dimir.

Boros Bully: “Bully is a sleeper contender, but I’d wait until week two before busting it out.”

One appearance and a 3-3 record at that. We’ll see if this prediction pans out.

Izzet Faeries: “Izzet Faeries is still a tier one strategy and if you don’t have a plan for beating it why are you even showing up?”

Two appearances and a Top 8, so it seems that this deck is still a good option. Shocker, I know. Still, when decks come prepared they can help to contain Izzet Faeries. It seems folks had a plan when they showed up.

Flicker Tron: “Just ban something already.”

A win and three Top 8s, and 11 total appearances (12 if you count a Stonehorn-less variant; 14 if you include all Tron variants with Ephemerate), so yeah this deck is still, on balance, the best in the format.

Part of the issue with Flicker Tron is that it can just run all the best cards. It doesn’t much matter what the color or cost restriction is since Tron can spend mana with impunity and has the filtering to do whatever it wants.

Take Bonder’s Ornament. In any “fair” deck this card is quite expensive. Seven mana for one card is fine in long drawn out games when locked in an attrition war. In Tron, this cost is a pittance.

If you ask me, Pauper is coming to a crossroads. There are tons of very cool things you can do in the format but the best engines are hard to disrupt. These engines include the Tron mana engine, Mnemonic Wall (and it’s ilk)/Ephemerate, and Mystic Sanctuary/Tragic Lesson. While these are all very powerful, none are so powerful on their own merits that they present a problem. Rather, it’s how strong they are in relation to everything that they are not that creates issues.

So next week? I’d look at Flicker Tron and failing that, a deck that can pack Journey to Nowhere.

June 13-14 Pauper Weekend in Review

We are in the home stretch of Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths season as there is only one more weekend of Challenges before Core Set 2021 hits the scene. The results from this past weekend are nothing out of the ordinary and largely make sense given the trends in Pauper.

June 13; Win+ represents wins above X-3 record

My latest Power Rankings had Izzet Faeries as the best deck in the format and Saturday did nothing to change my mind. The deck placed two in the Top 8 and won the dang tournament. While Flicker Tron failed to make Top 8 it had a very strong showing overall. Boros Monarch supplanted Bully as the Wind-Scarred Crag deck of the day and Dimir Faeries continued to put up solid numbers.

Mamah made Top 8 on back-to-back days with the strategy. The deck takes the creature core of Mono Blue Delver decks but cuts Delver for Gurmag Angler. It runs the blue spell suite all too familiar to Pauper players these days but gets lacks the ability to use its removal to deal with life totals. Still, access to cards like Suffocating Fumes and Echoing Decay is a nice bonus.

June 14; Win+ represents wins above X-3 record

Flicker Tron made the Top 8 on Sunday and won in the extremely capable hands of Hellsau. Izzet Faeries also made the elimination rounds; both decks had four Top 32 finishes and accrued 4 cumulative wins above an X-3 record. When talking about the best deck in Pauper, the conversation starts with these two strategies.

The breakout card for this weekend was Bonder’s Ornament. I will be the first to admit I think the hype around this card is over the top but make no mistake: the card is extremely good (as long as not everyone is running it). This creates an issue since Ornament is only available in Treasure Chests. Ornament’s release follows in the footsteps of some other important Pauper cards – Ash Barrens, Palace Sentinels, and Thorn of the Black Rose. Over time these cards became far easier to access but at the onset they were hard to acquire. Bonder’s Ornament is facing a similar issue while also seeing play in an already established top deck. The problem is only going to be exacerbated if there are Pauper relevant cards in Jump Start – which will only come to Magic Online via Treasure Chests. I don’t have a panacea for this issue but I would like to see more copies of these relevant cards released, in some way, into the Magic Online ecosystem to help keep the barrier of entry for Pauper low.

Whisper, Blood Liturgist

I have an Aristocrats problem in Commander. At one point I had nearly 20 decks built and a third of them had a pretty significant Aristocrats element. While there are many ways to play Aristocrats – shorthand for sacrifice for value – mine all fooled around in similar space. As a result I was never fully happy with any of the decks while enjoying all of them. At the start of quarantine I resolved to reduce the number of decks I had built and parse down my collection. This meant taking a hard look at all my dying friends and figure out which one to keep together.

It surprised me when the solution was Whisper, Blood Liturgist.

Back when this card was first spoiled I exclaimed that I felt it had been designed just for me. It’s a sacrifice engine that has a drawback that you could turn into an advantage. The card I most wanted to pair with Whisper was Thornbite Staff. Taken together each iteration of Whisper would yield two untap Ttriggers from Thornbite, which could then be used, with a little work, to generate an unbound number of “enters the battlefield” and “dies” triggers. I built a fairly resilient deck, focused on protecting Whisper and her Staff and promptly set it aside.

Like I said before, I had a lot of decks that played in similar space. My Elenda deck ran every Grave Pact, my Grenzo deck was where I leveraged Nim Deathmantle combos, and Savra was a generic sacrifice/control deck. When I decided to reduce the number of options I had Whisper wasn’t even an option – I was going to put together a Teysa, Orzhov Scion deck to take over that role.

So what changed? I got obsessed with something old and something new.

I couldn’t get this combination out of my head. But it was bothering me because again, this hypothetical deck would play in the same space as Savra and Teysa. I had an a ha moment and remember another Commander I love that has been left by the wayside in Sek’Kuar, Deathkeeper. Now I had an Abzan and Jund deck taking pieces of three existing builds.

So how does Whisper work? The entire goal is to set up a turn where you can stick Whisper with Staff and go to town. So much of the deck is dedicated to protecting the combo pieces. Black does not have a ton of options for recurring artifacts so I had to get creative and dig into Artifacts and Lands to get the job done. The deck does have a series of backup kills involving Deathmantle tricks and an unbound amount of mana.

And then there’s this polarizing card. Contamination is a card I love playing and often does nothing when there are enough rocks out. Sometimes I’m up against other black decks and it barely hurts them. Other times it buys me the time I need to win the game. I know this card is controversial – part of playing Magic is getting the chance to play Magic. So if I ever play Whisper at a more casual table – something I’m not likely to do – there’s a chance I simply wouldn’t play Contamination, even if I drew it. There are also times I’m going to slam it early and ride it to victory.

Where does Whisper go from here? I’m always on the lookout for more low cost token generators (hello Weaponcraft Enthusiast) and sacrifice outlets. Maybe one day in the future Wizards will print a piece of equipment that serve as redundancy for Thornbite Staff, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

May 30-31 Pauper Weekend In Review

Burn and WonderWalls won the weekend challenges. But that’s only part of the story. Izzet Mystic Sanctuary decks took a back seat to Dimir Delver and Stompy. Let’s get into the numbers.

May 30 Pauper Challenge; Win+ represents wins above an X-2 record.

Burn won the tournament, which itself is notable. Burn is an often maligned deck and has a tendency to be played often while experiencing relatively little success. Still, Lightning Bolt can get there. I don’t expect Burn to keep putting up these numbers, mostly since it is so easy to hate out.

Stompy, on the other hand, could be here for a while. The green deck has the ability to present an early army that can overwhelm the Izzet decks. We even saw the return of Young Wolf to one of the Top 8 builds as a way to render Skred only half as good. Stompy is not likely to take down 25% of a weekend’s Top 8s again anytime soon, but has the tools to shift to an aggro control role as Mystic Sanctuary decks assume the control role.

May 31 Pauper Challenge; Win+ represents wins above an X-2 record.

WonderWalls is a combo deck that takes the Freed from Real combo and staples it on to something resembling a Elves shell, but the deck is for real. While it hasn’t put up fantastic numbers it is a deck that can catch people unprepared and run over them. The deck is resilient to removal and discard and, by virtue of being packed with walls, is pretty good at absorbing the beatdown.

Again, we see Stompy put up good numbers. We also see Dimir Delver take two slots in toe Top 8. The ability to run Suffocating Fumes in the maindeck is rather enticing. It is never a dead card thanks to cycling but when it is good it is great. That being said I still believe the Izzet versions of these decks to be the better option.

Also of note: we saw Bonder’s Ornament make its challenge debut. A lot of Pauper Tron pilots are high on this card and I would recommend being on the lookout for copies. That being said, I am not convinced it’s necessary to compete but am willing to be proven wrong.

May 23-24 Pauper Weekend in Review

Historically, it’s really hard to keep Delver decks down. When mono-blue Delver rose to prominence, it did so in no small part thanks to the interaction of Cloud of Faeries and Spellstutter Sprite. Then came the era of Augur of Bolas and Gush; once Delver decks were at the top of the metagame. Today it is Mystic Sanctuary and Tragic Lesson that is helping to propel Delver style decks to the top of Pauper. But this time, honestly, I believe it is different.

Let’s start on Saturday, May 23rd. Half of the Top 8 were Izzet Mystic Sanctuary decks and this pattern was repeated in the Top 16. These decks might not be identical but they have a few common elements: Augur of Bolas, Ninja of the Deep Hours, and Spellstutter Sprite as creatures; Lightning Bolt, Skred, and the Mystic Sanctuary package in the spell slot. Whether they run Delver of Secrets or Faerie Seer or neither, these decks have made a solid run at the throne.

May 23 Pauper Challenge; Win+ indicates wins above an X-3 record.

How good were Izzet decks on Saturday? Out of 23 possible Win+ points they took home 13 – almost 57%. These are the sort of numbers, if sustained, could be a cause for alarm. Yet I’m not worried at this time. Let’s look at Sunday.

May 24 Pauper Challenge; Win+ indicates wins above an X-3 record

Did Izzet Faeries win the event? Yes. But it was the only Izzet Mystic Sanctuary deck in the Top 8 and one of two in the Top 32. There were only 5 Mystic Sanctuary decks in the entire Top 32. As a reminder, there were 4 such decks in the Top 8 on Saturday.

What happened?

First off, there was a surge in Boros Monarch and Boros Bully. Both of these decks have a traditionally good matchup against Delver-style decks. Second, Affinity came out in force. There are two good ways to fight Spellstutter Sprite and crew. The first is to completely ignore red and blue spells to dodge Hydroblast/Pyroblast. The second is to have access to Hydroblast/Pyroblast yourself. Affinity falls into the latter camp. Affinity is also quite capable of presenting enough large threats to put a premium on Skred use all while setting up a combo kill.

So back to why I’m not concerned at this point in time. When looking at Cloud of Faeries and Gush, these cards presented problematic game states in the very early stages of a game. Cloud of Faeries and Spellstutter Sprite, backed up with Daze, could lock players out of the first three turns of the game. Gush could do its thing as early as turn four without being much of an impediment. Compare this to the Mystic Sanctuary engines (in fair decks). It takes time for these decks to build up the resources to effectively leverage their engine. That set up gives other decks time to find their own countermeasures.

There is a lot of attention on Pauper these days. The lack of problematic Planeswalkers and Companions means that players are coming to the format looking for something else. If this influx continues I expect to see further developments in the metagame as it continues to churn. With that in mind I would come prepared to fight Boros Monarch and Bully next weekend, while also having a solid plan for Affinity.

May 16-17 Pauper Weekend in Review

The weekend of May 16-17 took place on the fifth week of Ikoria season. After one month, Flicker Tron proved itself to be the top deck but not by a massive margin. At the end of the first four weeks of Ikoria season we saw a resurgence of Mono Black Control and saw Izzet Faeries drop even more creatures. How would the second month kick off?

May 16 Pauper Challenge

The May 16th Challenge was all about Mystic Sanctuary. Five of the Top 8 decks ran the land alongside the Deprive and Tragic Lesson engine. Rounding out the Top 8: two copies of Elves and a copy of Flicker Tron. A Dimir Delver player ran the table in the Swiss and ended up in the Top 4 but the finals pitted Izzet Delver against Izzet Faeries.

Currently there are three five ways to play Mystic Sanctuary in a non-combo setting. The mono blue varietals- Delver and Mono Blue Control – have had some success but seem to be lagging behind the other potential builds. Delver has a hard time dealing with creatures once they hit the battlefield and has to resort to a pure tempo game in order to press the advantage. Mono Blue Control has the advantage of being able to run Desert but has not put up impressive numbers in the Challenges.

That leaves the Dimir and Izzet builds. Izzet Delver has continued to put up respectable numbers. It trades tempo plays for the ability to run Lightning Bolt and Skred. Where in the past these decks could potentially run out of steam, Mystic Sanctuary has given them a chance to redraw their best spells late. The big difference between Izzet Delver and Izzet Faeries is that the Delver variants skew aggressive. More and more, Izzet Faeries is trimming down to Augur of Bolas, Ninja of the Deep Hours, and Spellstutter Sprite as its creature package, looking more like a flash deck of old.

Dimir Delver lacks the reach of Izzet builds but trades that for the ability to stick Gurmag Angler. The Dimir decks are able to run a wider gamut of removal, although none of it can be aimed at a life total. Some of these decks have also added Thorn of the Black Rose for a way to steal the Monarch and cement their own advantage engines. And while Dimir Delver has done well in Challenge Swiss rounds, it seems to stumble more often than Izzet in the Top 8.

May 17th Challenge

Where May 16th had plenty of Mono Black Control decks finish outside the Top 16, May 17th saw the deck finish in the Top 8 and Top 16. In fact, four decks with access to Crypt Rats and/or Pestilence finished in the Top 16 (placing two in the Top 8). These cards are quite good against the small creatures in Mystic Sanctuary decks.

Speaking of those decks, two made the Top 8 – Izzet Delver and Izzet Faeries. The latter, piloted to a 7-0 finish by Luis Scott-Vargas, was eliminated by hjc piloting Izzet Delver in the Top 8. So of course hjc won the whole thing. Sunday’s Top 8 was more diverse than Saturday’s. As a whole, more archetypes finished in the Top 32.

There are some trends to keep an eye on. First is the struggles of Stompy. The strategy appears to be having a real problem between the success of Flicker Tron and the recent popularity of black based removal decks. Second is the staying power of Mono Black Control. As Boros Monarch has faded, MBC has risen to take hold of the Monarch midrange spot. These decks have shifted ever so slightly to defend their most valuable resource: the Monarch. Defile has certainly helped in this situation but so has the move back to Geth’s Verdict. As always, Gray Merchant of Asphodel ends games.

Looking ahead to the weekend of May 23 and 24, I would absolutely expect to see more Izzet Mystic Sanctuary decks. A smart counter would be to run Boros Monarch or Elves. I would lean into a Boros Monarch deck that has extra reach as a way to close the door on Flicker Tron.

Quarantine Commander: Hallar, the Firefletcher

This post is a little late going up so my apologies for that. Last Wednesday I played a Hallar, the Firefletcher on Kendra’s Commander night.

If you’re interested, here’s the current list for the deck. I had wanted to play a deck based around The Ozolith but wanted to avoid my same old Golgari ways. I had also been enamored with the interaction of Keen Sense and Snake Umbra with creatures that could deal non-combat damage to opponents. Big Mike had also suggested looking at an uncommon Commander and wanted me to run Eutropia, the Twice Favored.
Instead I focused on Hallar and built a red-green Spellslinger deck. And I was pleasantly surprised. The deck, despite having a relatively narrow card pool, was a blast to pilot. The ability to apply pressure with spells while not attacking is something I don’t really do often in Commander. There’s also the fact that slapping a Snake Umbra on to Hallar and turning the Archer into a repeatable Ancestral Recall is a ton of fun.

I am not sure what I would do moving forward with this deck. I would absolutely retool the manabase to be better – hello Fungal Reaches – but as noted by many in the game above the card pool is finite. That being said I am absolutely bringing this to another MTGO night at some point in the future.