Decks with at least 3 appearances OR a Top 8; March 27-April 4
I normally divide each season into four week segments. It helps to break up the data and give reasonable check points. Thanks to the release schedule, Kaldheim will have close to three of these chunks. This is informative in that it gives us some insight into the way the metagame reacts to different decks at the top.
Let’s take the example of the current best deck: Flicker Tron. In the first four weeks Flicker Tron was a Top 5 archetype but did not hold down the top spot. Instead Boros Bully had some of the best numbers with Izzet Faeries and Gruul/Jund Ramp not far behind. The second four weeks saw the various Faerie decks do better and a decline in Boros Bully. We also saw a decline in Ramp in favor of Jund Cascade. The best deck during those four weeks? Tron.
What does this tell us about these four weeks? Initially it let’s us see that Tron needs a specific set of circumstances to be kept in check. While many decks can falter if there is one major check in the metagame, Tron is resilient enough to require two such checks. Here it appears that in order to falter there needs to be a good disruptive deck (Faeries) as well as one that can pressure the mana base (Gruul Ramp). If one of those falls by the wayside Tron can reemerge.
Now Tron may have some gaudy numbers in that latest chart but they are inflated by two incredibly strong Swiss runs in the Super Qualifier top 32: 9-0 and 8-1 (to go with 3 7-2 finishes and a 6-3).
Where does this leave us going into next week? Tron is clearly the best deck but with an ascendant Faeries there should be an opening for Mwonvuli Acid-Moss decks to find their lane. That being said I would look for them to adjust their removal suite and potentially run some number of Forked Bolt and Branching Bolt main. And it probably wouldn’t hurt them to consider Penumbra Spider in the main.
But if you’re looking to juke the metagame and want to turn creatures sideways, I would investigate Red Deck Wins. Stompy had a solid weekend all things considered. But if people are going to be blocking, having access to Goblin Heelcutter could be a way to sidestep several isses.
Welcome back to Svogthir’s Study Treasured Finds: a place to appreciate Golgari and Witherbloom in Commander.
Well it certainly has been a while. The last time I wrote one of these I was still 36 and hadn’t yet received my first COVID vaccine. Now I’m another year older and have gotten both jabs. So what took me so long?
I struggle mightily with writing about Commander. I wrote about my Hakim, Loreweaver deck here and included this tidbit:
For me, Commander is intensely personal and documenting my takes on the format feels self-indulgent and embarrassing. If building a Commander deck is making a mixtape for yourself, writing about it is giving that tape to your crush.
This wasn’t made any easier by the fact that the next Commander, chronologically, is one of my all time favorites:
Back when I was attending Pro Tour Qualifiers I went to one at the Ukranian Church. I do not remember the actual name of the venue but it was a mainstay of the NYC late-Aught’s PTQ scene as it was massive and located a far walk from any mass transit.
In Manhattan that translates cheap.
At one Scars of Mirrodin sealed PTQ I stalked the dollar bin between rounds. This event stands out for two reasons. First, is that Pro Tour Champion Osyp Lebedowicz was eliminated from contention by someone who was later DQ’d for cheating (which is a story unto itself involving yelling from the balcony) and second, I picked up three different Commanders: Lyzolda, the Blood Witch, Teysa, Orzhov Scion (in Cyrillic no less!), and Thelon, of Havenwood. I don’t know why I picked up Thelon at the time. I had no intention of building the deck in that moment. Instead I just thought the card was neat.
It is also likely I bought this card before the Commander Color Identity rules changes in December of 2010. Before then, if you wanted to play Thelon you would have to play it as a Mono-Green deck.
Regardless, I eventually built Thelon as you are supposed to: a Thallid tribal deck. As is my way I was using some excessively random jank like Sporogenesis to have a good time with friends. The few times I did play the deck it performed as intended and even won a few games. But then Slimefoot, the Stowaway was printed and there was a better guy for the fun. And so I built Slimefoot and had a blast before taking the deck apart.
But Thelon is still special. He requires work to get going as there are not a ton of Fungi in Magic. Thelon has received a boost from recent design technology. In Ikoria, different counters got their time to shine and can persist with The Ozolith. Rishkar, Peema Renegade turns every creature with a counter on it into a mana dork.
A quick look at Thelon’s EDHREC page shows that the deck tends to play in well worn paths. Saprolings, +1/+1 counters, and Proliferate. You know what?
That rules.
Thelon is not the best Commander for any of those strategies these days. That means if you are playing a Thelon deck you want to be, optimization be damned. The card that I would want to include that has gone unmentioned to this point is Night Dealings. Between Slimefoot and Thorn Thallid, and attacking of course, it is not hard to imagine turning this Enchantment into a repeatable tutor. And considering you’re proliferating anyway, why the heck not?
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After an unintended vacation due to some gremlins in Renton (or wherever Magic Online‘s servers are housed), we are back with the breakdown of the March 27 and March 28 Pauper Challenges. These challenges represent the start of the third 4 week chunk of Kaldheim season. I prefer longer seasons as they provide more opportunities to examine trends in the metagame. Let’s get right to it. Here is what the first two Challenges of the third chunk look like:
So there are a few things of note. First, Flicker Tron is back in a big way. While it never went away it did have a few down weeks, to the point where I had it fall out of the top spot in my Power Rankings on more than one occasion. Second, we are seeing a surge in Izzet Delver (and Delver in general). Now these are not all decks packing four copies of the creature, but they are builds that are adapting to be more aggressive and have the option to play a beatdown game against the field. Third, Boros Bully has continued to struggle after a stellar first four weeks. Finally, we are seeing dedicated Gruul Ramp/Ponza take a hit and a rise in Jund Cascade.
Let’s try to break this down a bit more. The addition of Commander Legends and Kaldheim have changed the incentives in Pauper. Prior to these two releases the best deck at both accumulating and deploying resources was Tron. Outside of Tron decks Pauper in many ways became a battle of card economy where the player who managed to draw more cards would eventually triumph. Some decks – like Elves and WonderWalls – attempted to subvert this by winning before the sheer quantity of cards would matter. Cascade has changed that as decks can now both accumulate and deploy resources. While this has not impacted Tron in a major way (other than providing a check to the deck), it has forced out decks that have traditionally relied on amassing cards as a path to victory – Boros Monarch, for example, has all but vanished.
Now that decks are able to both draw cards and play them, committing to the board matters more. Again we see decks like Elves and WonderWalls continue to perform but this also helps to explain the return of Delver of Secrets. Delver is one of the best turn one plays if your goal is to apply continuous pressure. Delver also allows the deck to get a head start on the damage race while also leaving up mana to Spellstutter Sprite on the second turn and it does rather nicely against a deck trying to blow up a land.
If I had to pick the three best decks going into next weekend (and the Super Qualifier), they would be Flicker Tron, Izzet Delver/Faeries, and Elves. Burn, Dimir Faeries, Jund Cascade, and WonderWalls should all be on your radar as well. Kor Skyfisher looks to be an incredibly important piece next weekend due to how well it can matchup with the top of the field, but I would avoid pairing it with red this time around.
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The March 6 and March 7 Pauper Challenges are perfect examples of how the format’s metagame has changed in the wake of Commander Legends and Kaldheim. The shift is seismic as it has upset Tron as the undisputed number one deck in Pauper. The repercussions are still being felt and will likely take another few weeks before they are fully sorted.
Before diving deeper, here are some notes on the weekend:
Izzet Faeries and WonderWalls both had three Top 8 appearances with a win; Burn had three Top 8 appearances
Elves, Flicker Tron, and Gruul Ramp each had two Top 8 appearances; Boros Bully rounded out the Top 8s.
The Boros Bully deck went 7-0 in the Swiss on Sunday and lost in the finals was the only Boros deck in the Top 32 all weekend
Traditional aggro had a poor showing: 2 Stompy, 2 Jeskai Affinity, 2 Heroic, 1 Bogles and combined these decks had two wins above the X-3 record
February 27-March 7 Challenges, minimum three appearances in the Top 32/one Top 8 finish
The rules of engagement for Pauper have changed. For so long the three main pillars of the format were Tron, Spellstutter Sprite, and Monarch. The addition of top end Cascade threats have knocked Monarch down a peg and in its place are Hypermana Decks. Hypermana decks are a subset of ramp strategies that try to weaponize their mana into game ending threats. These decks can get away with running Arbor Elf and Utopia Sprawl since their top end is “worth it”. These decks already existed in Pauper (Elves) but they are now getting their time in the spotlight.
Shifting from Monarch to Hypermana as a pillar requires adapting to the new battlefield. When the Monarch was on the throne games were about protracted card advantage and attrition fights. You had to get an edge on raw cards. While you could theoretically go under the Monarch deck, that was difficult due to the strength of removal in Pauper and other defensive measures. It was reasonable to spend a few turns developing your position if it meant you could go up cards in the long run.
Hypermana wants you to take your time. Hypermana wants you to worry about turn six while it’s preparing to resolve game ending threats on turn four. But that does not mean these decks are not without their vulnerabilities.
The top Hypermana decks rely on fragile creatures. Whether it’s Arbor Elf, Priest of Titania, Quirion Ranger, or Saruli Caretaker, these decks all lean on small creatures to get rolling. While they can “go off” without the aid of these creatures it makes the task that much harder. Rather than taking time to sculpt hands or fight the card economy battle, early turns can be spent dealing with on board threats since as well all know, the removal in Pauper is kinda great.
Could this new pillar prove problematic? Possibly. The history of Pauper is littered with powerful options that have been metagame warping. But for the foreseeable future I want to find the best technology to fight the current battles. And that means trying to not only play to the board but to also not put myself in a position to lose to a Stone Rain or a Cascade.
We are in the second month of Kaldheim season. At the end of the first four weeks Boros Bully and Dimir Faeries had taken over the top two spots, knocking Flicker Tron down to third. The metagame seemed to be realigning, with Flicker Tron, Spellstutter Sprite/Blue Monarch, and Cascade/Ramp as the main pillars. The February 27 and February 28 Challenges saw something of a return to form with four copies of Flicker Tron making the Top 8 on Saturday and with Tron being the most played archetype on the weekend.
The above chart takes into account decks that appeared at least twice or made Top 8. And that being said, there are a few things to note.
Cascade continues to evolve. 13 decks on the weekend ran some form of Cascade, with five being WonderWalls. On the ramp side of things there was a shift towards Temur Ramp, potentially as a way to outdraw other ramp strategies.
Cascade is also finding its way into Tron builds with a Cascade fueled version of Temur Tron making Top 8 in the hands of Paul Rietzl and Cascade Tron with Maelstrom Colossus showing up.
Boros Monarch seems to have shifted away from Palace Sentinels and towards Crimson Fleet Commodore.
Stompy might as well not exist.
What does this mean for next weekend? Don’t count Tron out. Despite having a down few weeks before, Flicker Tron has seemed to rebound. More than that, with other Tron builds showing up it may encourage folks to diversify the spouts for their mana abundance.
I would also expect Izzet Faeries to be on the upswing. Izzet and Dimir tend to trade off and after a few weeks of Dimir being on top it’s due to see a bit of a dip.
Finally, I would explore running Hindering Touch. Do not get me wrong – this card is not great. However with so many decks leaning on Cascade as a way to come from behind, the opportunity to counter both the spell with Cascade and whatever it Cascades into should not be ignored.
The February 13 and February 14 Pauper Challenges took place in the shadow of a potential format shake up. A banned and restricted list update was scheduled for February 15. While the update was known to be targeting Uro, Titan of Nature’s Wrath, the assumption was that other formats would also see changes. Given language in the Fall from Favor ban update, it was not outside the realm of possibility that Pauper would also see a shake up.
Normally I am the one at the forefront of calling for bans in Pauper. I am on the record as saying I feel that several bans should have already taken place. It therefore shocks me quite a bit to write these next words:
In my opinion, Pauper is the healthiest it has been since the period between the ban of Peregrine Drake and the release of Modern Masters 2017.
More than, this, Pauper looks actively good. Yes there are still problematic strategies and a number of “feel bad” moments (which I promise you I will get to) but there is a relatively large variety of potentially successful archetypes. Let’s take a look at the first six Challenges. This chart takes into account every deck that has at least 4 appearances in the Top 32 or a Top 8 finish.
January 30-February 14 Challenges
Decks in blue are those where their Weighted Volume – that is their share of the winner’s metagame – is higher than that of their actual Volume – their overall percentage of the Top 32 metagame. If we just take into account decks with more than one appearance there are 11 such strategies. Unlike previous seasons, the is no outlier like Flicker Tron which had a positive delta of over 5%. Instead what we see is a large variety of distinct decks that can reliably be found in the Top 16 and knocking on the door of the Top 8.
Another column worth noting is Win+:Volume. When this number exceeds 1 it means the deck is more likely to Top 8 than Top 16. Before the Fall from Favor ban, Commander Legends season had three such decks (where the archetype was at least 2% of the Top 32 metagame). Currently there are no decks that meet the 2% threshold (4 appearances) where this number exceeds 1. Not only is there a variety of options but they are all of a similar power level (as indicated by these results).
Pauper is fine, case closed. Right?
Not so fast. This data set draws upon a fairly small sample size (6 events) and before making any sweeping pronouncements I’d want to see more events. There is also the question of “at what cost?”. Yes, Tron is currently down, but does the format want a top tier land destruction strategy? Pure Monarch strategies are suffering but the Monarch has been adopted into more decks as a way to keep up on cards. Even Bonder’s Ornament has found its way into decks that cannot easily make use of the card as a way to fight opposing copies.
Let’s look at two quotes from the recent banned list update. First, in discussion of Pioneer and the bans of Balustrade Spy and Undercity Informer. The key text is highlighted:
Now let’s look at the section on Modern, specifically Tibalt’s Trickery. Again, the key text is highlighted:
These are two key points explicitly called out:
Difficulty of meaningful interaction
The proliferation of non-games
What is meaningful interaction? In the case of Oops! All Spells, there wasn’t much Pioneer decks could do as the deck could easily win in the first few turns of the game. Compare this to Tron where interaction does matter early but as the game draws on, it matters less and less (which in turn leads to a state of “non-game”). But, importantly, the game did not start in such a state.
Let’s look at Monarch. Can one meaningfully interact with the Monarch? Not really, but again it usually does not come down until turn four at the earliest. And while the Monarch can indeed lead to a state of “non-game”, just like Tron there is game to be played before this point.
At what point does a game become a non-game? At what point does interaction cease to matter? I think it is clear that over the past few months we have seen an overall increase in the power level of successful Pauper strategies and while some decks have been able to adapt others have been lost to the churn of time.
Does this leave Pauper is good place? I am not sure. I do not like the “wait and see” approach as it has burned the format several times in the past. And there is nothing guaranteeing that the problems of a few months ago won’t come back and rear their head in a few weeks. But I am going to draw a two conclusions from the information available:
Wizards wants Pauper to be powerful: Tron and Monarch are powerful mechanics and the decks built around them are similarly strong; Spellstutter Sprite is a powerful card. It is safe to assume that there should be powerful options in Pauper.
A fundamental turn of Four is acceptable: Very few games of Pauper are effectively over before turn four. This may change with the recent increase in Arbor Elf/Acid-Moss decks but for now, games usually have interplay up to this point. If we ever see that turn skew lower, action is likely (see Fall from Favor).
Pauper is the healthiest it has been in almost five years. Whether or not it is a healthy format in the abstract remains to be seen but if you are interested in playing with powerful commons, now is a great time to test the waters.
We are now four challenges into the Kaldheim era and the new metagame is starting to take shape. Taking into account the February 6 and February 7 Challenges, here is every deck that has either a Top 8 appearance or has at least three appearances in the Top 32.
January 30-February 7 Challenges; 3 total Top 32 appearances or Top 8 finish
Saturday was won by Dimir Faeries with the following decks also making the Top 8: Boros Bully, Burn, Elves, Flicker Tron (2), Goblins, and Jund Ramp. Sunday saw Gruul Ramp win the day with Dimir Delver, Dimir Faeries, Elves, Flicker Tron, and Izzet Faeries (3) also making the Top 8. There’s a lot to unpack in the first two weeks but to me, at least, there has been a relatively large shift in the current top pillars.
Going into Commander Legends it would have been reasonable to label Tron, Palace Sentinels, and Spellstutter Sprite as the pillars of the format. These three represented focal points for many of the top strategies with other decks finding success by sneaking through the gaps that these three left open. This is not to say that the only good decks ran these cards – you could clearly make an argument that Lead the Stampede/Winding Way could lay claim to top pillar status as well – but if I had to pick a big three, it would be those.
Until Kaldheim. The impact of Commander Legends is still being felt thanks to the additional Monarch options and curve topping Cascade cards, but now with latest set added to the mix the recent changes are more fully realized.
Tron remains a focal point of the metagame. While the deck has adjusted over time and we are seeing the deck focus more on dictating the rules of battle on the stack as opposed to the battlefield. Tron can easily shift back if needed – it is an excellent control deck after all – but for now if you can play to the board quickly you have a shot against Tron.
Spellstutter Sprite decks have not gone anywhere, but these decks have also become the predominant Monarch strategy. Dimir Delver, Dimir Faeries, and Izzet Faeries have all been just fine without Fall from Favor and while Behold the Multiverse is doing a fine job, many of these builds have turned in some capacity to the Crown. Free card draw and counterspells is a winning combination.
The final pillar I want to talk about today is Arbor Elf ramp. These decks have taken the metagame by storm and if you combine the Gruul and Jund variety, they are the second most popular archetype behind Tron (that is, if you don’t also group Dimir Faeries and Izzet Faeries or Dimir Delver and Dimir Faeries, but you get the point). These decks are quite capable of playing to the board quickly and thanks to Annoyed Altisaur and Boarding Party they are able to put a ton of permanents on to the battlefield. The duo of Llanowar Emissary and Sarulf’s Packmage makes it trivially easy to keep the cards flowing and sometimes turn two Mwonvuli Acid-Moss just wins games.
There are other interesting developments – the power of the Arbor Elf/Cascade shell appears to have pushed WonderWalls to the side, opening up space for new builds of Elves to emerge. Decks that can function on fewer lands – like the recent build of Goblins popularize by Willy Edel – can also find success. This new metagame also might require some operational adjustment, such as relying more on Evolving Wilds rather than Ash Barrens to fix mana and feeling comfortable not acting on the first few turns against a potential Thermokarst.
So what can be done? It may be time to look at cards like Crack the Earth and Raze as ways punish players who lean on Utopia Sprawl. Boomerang and Eye of Nowhere saw play in Standard mana denial strategies when Tron was a force back in the Kamigawa-Ravnica days. Temporal Spring is a fan favorite that happens to play nicely with Coiling Oracle and Growth Spiral.
What does this mean for next week? I would expect the deck to beat to be Elves. Not only does it have a natural foil to ramp thanks to Quirion Ranger, it has solid game against both Tron and Faeries. If that isn’t your thing I would look to Goblins. No matter what, I would want a plan to beat the ramp decks.
NerdtotheCore 
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