Transitioning from Modern Horizons 2 to Adventures in the Forgotten Realms

After a brief hiatus due to personal matters, my recaps are back.

In a fashion.

I don’t want to take too much time wrapping up the Modern Horizons 2 season as it was dominated by Affinity, Storm, and Dimir. Those three archetypes took down over 67% of the Top 32 finishes and over 75% of all Top 8 slots. These decks were dominant to the point where the next most played deck – Burn – accounted for 5% of the Top 32 metagame. The gap between the 3rd most played archetype (Dimir) and Burn was over 12%. By comparison the most popular archetype during Strixhaven season was Dimir Faeries and it only accounted for 14% of the Top 32 metagame.

I’m also not going to spend too much time talking about the July 10 and July 11 Challenges except to say that Affinity and Storm continued to rule the roost. The card to make the biggest splash from the latest set is Celestial Unicorn, which showed up in three decks across the weekend.

Instead I’m going to talk about last Tuesday when Gavin Verhey from Wizards of the Coast stopped by the #MTGPauper Discord for a chat. Gavin stops by a few times a year to check in on the format, take the pulse of people there, and answer some questions. One question and answer in particular has set off a segment of the community, and I want to address it separately.

You closed the last fireside-chat with the question: What should Pauper be? The community still feels divided to me. I’m curious what your opinion/perspective is currently. Ideally that could be used as the starting point for some conversations within the community across social media to get you a legitimate answer.

And here’s Gavin’s response (emphasis added):

I do think that ultimately a lot of this is on the players to figure out. Pauper has always been a format by the players, for the players. I remember playing in fan-run Pauper events on MTGO 12+ years ago with my homebrew Teachings decks! But I will say this: the Pauper community isn’t large, and dividing yourselves isn’t going to get you the critical mass you need. Working together is going to be important. I know there are many different opinions out there on format health, and what should be banned, and so on, but making this an inclusive community where everybody feels welcome, even if you (respectfully) disagree on aspects of the format or what decks are best is crucial to earning that larger seat at the table. We’re about to enter back into a brave new world of in-store play and a whole new generation of players who came to Magic during the pandemic. Be the landing place for them as they try playing paper. Work with your stores to run events. This is, in some sense, your chance for a whole new generation of Magic players to find a home here. Create the Pauper community you want to see in the world, and success will follow

I am going to hold off on my personal reaction to this and instead try to paraphrase some of the discontent around the answer. Pauper, at the moment, is not in a great place. Some in the chat felt that this response (and others – the conversation is preserved) was trying to sidestep the issue at hand by saying that it was on the Pauper community to drum up interest in a format that currently kind sucks. Some took this as a Catch-22: if you want people to pay attention to the format (and as a result get more eyes on it), you need to get more people to play it while it is “not fun”.

That, understandably, is not great. The people in the chat are highly engaged and if they heard “we can’t fix the format until more people are interested” that is not a great message to receive. But taking a step back I think this reading of the response is disingenuous.

The way to get more attention on any format is to get more eyes on it and more people playing it. People wouldn’t play Pauper and be invested in its long term health if it weren’t, on some level, fun. Pauper (when healthier) presents a unique puzzle.

And yet, the only time the format enters the wider conversation of Magic is when something is broken in the format OR the certain elements of the community are hostile to people who do not play the format regularly.

To me this is what Gavin was trying to hammer home. If the community wants more people to care about the format and to help prevent problems like the current metagame from dragging on then we need to do the work to make the format an attractive and welcoming community. We cannot just get up in arms when things are terrible. People need to be out there making content and talking about the format when things are going well.

I know I fall into this trap too – I didn’t get my reputation as ban-happy for no reason. But if there’s one thing I know it’s that people will remember all my negative comments far more than my positive reviews. I think that Strixhaven season was one of the healthiest in recent memory and said as much…but that doesn’t drive the same engagement as when I say “Gush is broken”. And so it’s on us – the Pauper community – to make enough noise that when things are good that we are impossible to ignore when things get bad.

June 26-27 Pauper Weekend in Review

This post is coming almost a week late. I could say it was because my toddler’s day care was closed and I was chasing him around several playgrounds (which is true) or because I was preparing for a visit from my in-laws (also true). But that’s only part of the truth.

Put simply, Pauper is not fun for me right now. I am not enjoying the games and I’m not enjoying the metagame as an observer. The June 26 and June 27 Challenges did not do much to change my opinion. Through the first four weeks of Strixhaven season there were 16 decks that made up at least 2% of the Top 32 metagame. Through the same time period in Modern Horizons 2 there are 9.

Pauper is a three deck metagame. Affinity is the most popular with nearly 29% of the Top 32 metagame and almost 30% of all Top 8s. Squirrel Storm and the two main Dimir Variants are around 19% of the Top 32 metagame and the archetypes each have 15 Top 8s (around 23% of all Top 8s). So we’re looking at these decks taking up 67% of the Top 32 metagame and almost 77% of all Top 8s.

We’re a month in. It’s safe to say that this experiment is not working.

On Tuesday, July 6th at 3pm Eastern, Gavin Verhey will be stopping by the MTGPauper Discord to answer some questions. People have already started posting some queries and you can bet that Storm and Affinity are on everyone’s mind.

On Pro Magic

I am not a professional Magic player. Those dreams died a long time ago when I realized that I just did not want to put in the time and effort into The Grind. Yet I barely remember a moment in the past 25 years where I was not thinking about professional Magic in some way, especially as I pursued a new dream of doing event coverage. Today I just feel sad – for players who did dedicate themselves to the dream and for the community of folks around the professional scene who also have their future held in limbo.
I don’t want to waste words on speculating and theorizing on why the powers that be have decided to whittle away at the elite level of play so publicly while not providing a plan. Rather, I want to talk about why I think this is a mistake and what I would like to see once we reach the next era of Professional Magic.


Discovery

Magic is a huge part of my life. It is my primary hobby and a source of income. I love the game and the friends I have made along the way. And one reason I keep coming back to shuffle cardboard is that sense of discovery. When I was a kid this meant cracking open a booster pack or a starter deck to see what new cards I could add to my collection. Today it’s about scouring spoilers for new deck ideas and tech for Commander.
For several years my discovery was driven by the Pro Tour.
At some point I had reached the limits of what I could figure out on my own. That’s when I found the pro scene. Suddenly I had new avenues of acquiring new knowledge. There were entire metagames to devour and intricate plays. Taking away the elite level of play cuts off a vital pipeline of keeping a certain stripe of player – one who is always eager to be up on the latest tech and decks – engaged in the game.
This is to say nothing of strategic discovery. Magic is an incredibly complex game and I know that I’ve gotten better by following the professional scene. These are players who are approaching the game at a level that I cannot easily achieve and being able to watch them and potentially consume the content they generate gives me that insight. But what happens when there is nothing left to strive for? What if just being the best amongst your group of friends is good enough? While plumb the depths of strategy for every little edge if none of it matters in the wider ecosystem of the game?

I don’t want to see Magic lessened in any way. I fear that without professional level play – some tangible level to aspire to – the incentives to innovate and develop new strategies will stagnate.

To be clear this is not a knock on people who enjoy the game as it exists in front of them. I am not trying to take away from people who are going to iterate and innovate on their preferred format and decks. They should enjoy it at whatever level of engagement they find appropriate. That being said, what is the point of striving to be the best if there is nothing to strive towards. But for those of us who do want to strive, a professional level has to exist to scratch that itch.

Trust

For years the Magic community has been told to wait for the next big thing in professional play. Even now we are being told that something is in the works for the 2022-23 season. The community’s trust can only go so far. And given the recent track record, why should there be any trust given to the people in charge if we do not know who they are?
There is no way to win back trust immediately but there are a few ways to start the process. The first is to restore the slashed prize pool of the 2020-21 World Championship. The second is to give the community some insight into who is making the decisions regarding organized and professional play and have them share their vision of the system.
I’m not asking for a detailed plan for every strata of competition; I’m not asking for the names of events or locations, or even prize pools. But knowing that someone is making the decisions, and having an idea of what the system could look like (not just what it won’t look like) could go a long way towards rebuilding trust.
I also believe that a good way to win back some amount of trust is to bring professional level players into the fold for a discussion. This does not need to be everyone who has ever achieved a pro point, but rather players who have sustained success at different levels of competitive play. Give them the parameters of what the system can and can’t be and then get their insight into what can make it succeed given the current limitations.

My Vision

If it is not clear, I believe professional Magic is a net positive for the game. I want to see the system return in the future even if I don’t have a shot of qualifying. I want to spend my days watching the very best sling cardboard and show me everything I don’t know about the game.
I want there to be Pro Tour level events with some sort of qualification path. I think the Player’s Tour System was a good base but could be improved upon. If anything, Magic is a global game and having large geo-region events is good, but pales in comparison to having the world’s best battle on the regular.
I believed that Grand Prix tournaments had outlived their utility before the pandemic and I don’t think they should return to that model. Grand Prix were originally super-Pro Tour Qualifiers – a way to battle against the best people in your immediate vicinity. They evolved into de facto Magic conventions with the main tournament – the Grand Prix itself – playing a vital role in the rise up professional ranks.
I’d love to see conventions continue. I’d love to see a tournament in the vein of the original Grand Prix – the best players in your region. I’d also love to see a parallel tournament that features rising competitive players as a stepping stone to whatever the Pro Tour is moving forward. We had a taste of this with Mythic Championship Magic Fests. I don’t know what the best version of these events will be, but I think having a stepping stone towards professional play is important, but it can’t be the same tournament where pro players have their future on the line.
There need to be broadcasts of these events. Magic is a dense game and trying to mesh the sometimes plodding pace of play with the excitement evident in other made-for-viewing games is a recipe for disaster. While it was not perfect the old Pro Tour broadcasts, with several games running concurrently, helped to keep the show moving. I do think something needs to be done to help the casual viewer understand what they are watching – perhaps using old matches from the archives and overlaying captions and graphics on them to help explain as interstitials – but it should not fall to the booth to explain the basics.

Arena

Magic: the Gathering – Arena is a wonderful program. It is an amazing tool for helping people learn and stay engaged with Magic. I think it is a bad vehicle for elite level play. Arena, for all its advantages, never lets the game breathe – it is busy. That is great for catching eyes but it does not give folks enough time to process the game thanks to the ever looming threat of the rope.
That being said, Arena should be used for invitational style events. These tournaments should be focused on maximizing for viewer experience and should leverage the unique elements of Arena – such as the ability to provide some truly bizarre game formats – as a way to be entertaining and informative.
Can Arena be used for some high level play in a new professional structure? Absolutely! But I do not think it needs to be the only way people can consume and participate in the highest echelons of play and reducing Magic only to Arena is a disservice to the game, the platform, and the community.

I don’t know if these are solutions. I don’t know if my ideas will fix anything. I don’t even think these are the best ideas out there. But they are mine as a huge fan of Magic and the professional scene. And hopefully I get to be a fan again, watching in the future.


	


	





	

		
June 19-20 Pauper Weekend in Review
	


	
	

		

The first six weeks of the Modern Horizons 2 season shows just what happens when mistakes are repeated or somehow, made worse. Taking into account the June 19 and June 20 Challenges here is where the Top 32 metagame stands – minimum of 4 Top 32 appearances:










Storm is a problematic mechanic in formats with better answers. Even with plenty of “answers” available to an army of squirrels, even with hate being nearly everywhere, the new Storm deck is putting up great numbers. The only deck that is clearly doing better is Affinity which recently got indestructible artifact lands and a new free 4/4 to go with Myr Enforcer. Affinity already has more appearances in six weeks than every archetype except Dimir Faeries had in the entirety of Strixhaven Season.





Storm in Pauper is a mistake. Any time a Storm card has represented a clean kill it has proven to be too powerful (and before someone chimes in to say that Temporal Fissure wasn’t a clean kill I would advise them to stop looking at the 0.01% of the time someone built back from a one sided Upheaval).  Artifact Lands were a mistake that only managed to survive so long in Pauper because they represented a real risk in a format featuring Gorilla Shaman.





Now I get it – Pauper is always going to matter less than Modern and Limited. Both Chatterstorm and the new lands play a vital role in Modern Horizons 2 Limited and needed to be printed. But at this point it is increasingly clear that they have boosted two decks far beyond the rest of the metagame and action needs to be taken. Chatterstorm should be banned and something needs to be banned out of Affinity to balance the deck for the metagame.





As far as downshifts or new cards go, I doubt anything could be released that would solve these issues. Modern Horizons 2 provided the perfect opportunity to print a soft hate card for Storm at common. And it isn’t there. So that leaves banning as the last option. Unless you like a three deck metagame.





Me? Not so much.





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June 12-13 Pauper Weekend in Reivew
	


	
	

		

So we are two weeks into the Modern Horizons 2 season and things are…well, they certainly are something. To be blunt I don’t think the format is in a very good place right now (but my guess is you don’t need me to tell you that) but I want to take some time to dive a little deeper.





So let’s get some bookkeeping out of the way with regards to the June 12 and June 13 Challenges. Affinity was a dominant force, taking down seven Top 8 slots and both wins. Despite all the fear of Chatterstorm going into the season it is not the best deck in practice, although it might be the deck doing the best job of defining the format.





Currently the best three decks in the format comprise over 61% of the Top 32 metagame. Affinity is 28.91% of the Top 32 meta, with various Dimir decks clocking in at 19.52% and Storm variants at 13.29%. While it is only two weeks into the season these numbers still should be a cause of concern, especially since these are known actors in the metagame. By comparison the three most popular decks at the end of Strixhaven season had 17.24% of the Top 32 metagame (Dimir variants), 10.04% (Burn), and 8.71% (Flicker Tron). That’s just about 36%. Now this is not an apples-to-apples comparison as two weeks is not eight weeks, but the disparity in these numbers is stark.





How did we get here? Storm is clearly the best level zero deck – the deck might not have the numbers that others do but if you are not running an answer to Storm, whether it be hate cards or winning before they do, you are going to lose. This is where the other two decks come into the fold. Affinity is not only able to run efficient hate for Storm in Echoing Truth or Krark-Clan Shaman, but it can also run an over-the-top kill in Atog-Fling to go along with its new plan of free 4/4 beatdown. It is a robust deck that can get ahead and stay there. Enter Dimir with its good counter magic and free removal as a way to check Affinity as well as the possibility of targeted Atog-Fling hate in Hydroblast. Add to this the opportunity to run good anti-Storm cards – Echoing Decay, Echoing Truth, and to a lesser extent Duress.





So that helps to explain why these are the big three, but why are they so resilient? Against Storm ones needs specific hate drawn at the correct moment to have a shot. Dimir is easier as it is simply a good deck with a well established metagame pressence. But Affinity…Affinity was a sleeping giant. 





Affinity has long been a deck, like Dredge in other formats, held back by potent sideboard hate. One reason Affinity never experienced a sustained run of success is that it was trivially easy to disrupt its mana thanks to Gorilla Shaman (and to a lesser extent Ancient Grudge). Running Affinity was a massive risk because there was a non-zero chance you were not going to be able to play the game. The indestructible lands changed everything. This is not to say that the only way to curtail Affinity is to target its lands but the lands were the risk in the risk-reward dichotomy. Now there’s no real risk, only reward. No deck can match Affinity for consistency and speed and thanks to Atog and Fling, removal can only do so much.





So what’s the solution? I don’t have one at the moment. I think that once Chatterstorm gets banned (which it probably will at some point), something from Affinity has to go with it to prevent it from increasing its dominant run. I know some folks have floated a potential Atog ban and that might be good enough. 





But time will tell. For now, if you do not have a plan against Affinity and either Dimir or Storm, you might as well not bother playing.





And that’s never a good sign.





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June 5-6 Pauper Weekend in Review
	


	
	

		

It is impossible to talk about the June 5 and June 6 Pauper Challenges without discussing the format’s current sciurophobia.





Yes, I’m going to make you look it up.





It is extremely early in the Modern Horizons 2 season but there have been a number of developments that will have a profound impact. The first is the presence of a viable Storm kill card in Chatterstorm. Pauper is dense with rituals and card filtering so it is always one good spout away from exerting a ton of stress on the format. So here we are.










“But Alex,” you’re probably saying, “Storm wasn’t dominant. What gives?” Storm decks flexed their muscles and helped to narrow the metagame in the first week. Dimir Faeries was one the most played deck last season and kept the numbers up. The fact that it can run discard, Echoing Decay, and Echoing Truth just help it against Storm while not suffering against the wider metagame. Boros Bully has adopted Rustvale Bridge and other indestructible lands to go with Cleansing Wildfire (powerful against Squirrel Storm but weak against the Izzet variant) to pivot towards a land denial strategy with Fiery Cannonade in the sideboard.





Speaking of Artifact Lands, Affinity has emerged as the big winner thanks to Sojourner’s Companion, new lands, and Krark-Clan Shaman. The ability to wipe the board at will is huge when your likely to die from a horde of 2/2 squirrels in one turn. The fact that Affinity can back this up with eight different 4/4s and Atog/Fling makes it an absolute monster right now. The fact that Gorilla Shaman has lost some of its punch these days means it is going to take some time before the machine breaks down again.





So is this a problem? Chatterstorm has racked up numerous turn one wins and has people calling for a ban. Those of you who follow me know I’m no stranger to calling out problematic cards with some speed. 





Here’s where I stand today: we need a little more time to see adjustments. If we start to see a rise in other decks and strategies than can compete in this new metagame, it might not need a bad. However if Chatterstorm creates a narrow metagame (similar to what we saw this past weekend) action will need to be taken to keep it and other meta monsters in check.





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In Anticipation of Modern Horizons 2
	


	
	

		

I couldn’t bring myself to do a metagame recap for the May 29 and May 30 Pauper Challenges. This has nothing to do with the outcome of those events but rather the looming specter of Modern Horizons 2. The set is poised to turn the metagame on its ear, and the addition of Chatterstorm is only part of the impending sea change.





Before diving deeper, I want to discuss how I view Pauper as it exists in the current moment. It is a format in flux but there are some things that have remained true. 





  • The format has a fundamental turn of four. While some above average draws can get there on turn three, on average the game will hinge on the fourth turn.
  • There is little incentive to win early. Aside from WonderWalls combo and Burn there just is not a ton of pressure applied to the first few turns. The result is that over time we have seen decks shift towards a focus on dominant endgames as opposed to pressing an early advantage. You can see this in various two-color Spellstutter Sprite decks that over time cut Delver of Secrets in an effort to have a better late game.
  • Outside of hyperlinear decks and Tron, this has created a format of midrange. Due to the nature of most Pauper engines being ones of pure card economy, the resulting slog can often come down to who has more options. The advent of Cascade decks has changed this somewhat, forcing decks to not only accumulate cards but also to efficiently deploy them.





Modern Horizons 2 is going to change things. We have to start with Chatterstorm (you can read my thoughts here). I believe there is around a 5% chance that this card remains legal for the long term. Before we get to the sliding doors part of this run down, let’s talk about what the latest set is likely to do:





Pauper is going to get faster





Regardless of whether or not Chatterstorm is banned, MH2 is packing a ton of powerful options at the low end of the curve. The Dual Artifact Lands are going to make Affinity and Metalcraft more consistent while also giving more decks access to Galvanic Blast. The new Arcbound creatures and Foundry Helix are going to apply a ton of pressure and help to mitigate removal.





There are plenty of other cards that are going to apply pressure. Glimmer Bairn and Goblin Anarchomancer are begging to be paired with Sprout Swarm. Hell Mongrel and friends might just make Madness viable. Whenever a set like MH2 comes along it provides cards at a better rate than would appear in a Standard set. This alone helps to push the curve of the format lower.





More Engines





There are three different common creatures that tap to draw a card in Modern Horizons 2. Floodhound is the worst of these, costing three mana to Investigate. The nice part about the good dog is that you can store the clues for later. Gild-Blade Prowler asks that you have discarded a card before you get your draw, but if you have it costs a measly one mana and one life. Between Cycling lands, Retrace, and Tortured Existence, this card is set up to power black midrange decks up quite a bit. Deepwood Denizen might be the most expensive of the bunch, but when paired with Elvish Vanguard this basically costs a single green mana to draw a card.





These are just the card draw engines. Madness and discard decks acquired a ton of tools The +1/+1 counter theme might be strong enough to push a Hardened Scales style deck (we see you Vault Skirge). I don’t think it’s good enough but I definitely want Sinister Starfish to do something.





So we have a format that is pulled in two directions. We have the addition of cheap options that encourage earlier plays while also adding several engines that reward protecting the crown (but not the Monarch). Here’s how I see the format shaking out.





Chatterstorm is Banned





If Chatterstorm is banned in the first few months of its existence I think the format is going to be in a weird spot. Affinity and similar decks likely turn into one of the best things to do early. I don’t think we will see a settled “best build” for a few months.





We are likely to see a ton of Spellstutter Sprite decks as a way to apply control the game with counter magic. White decks probably get a boost thanks to Dust to Dust. People are going to try and make Mono-Black work and chances are it will not succeed thanks in part to how well Affinity matches up with Swamps.





In this world, Tron is likely to emerge as a strong contender. I think the days of Gorilla Shaman acting as a check on Affinity are numbered. Instead we are going to see cards like Ancient Grudge and Shattering Pulse, which can handle multiple non-land artifacts, go up in value.





The format will likely look similar to what currently exists, only with the specter of Atog looming large. Decks that can fight against Fling and win will be set up for success.





Chatterstorm Stays Legal





Here is where things get interesting. I think if Chatterstorm stays legal it is going to force a shift in the way Pauper games are played. Instead of trying to eventually win the game, players are going to have to try an actively win. Again, Affinity style decks are probably one of the early favorites here as they are established in their paths to victory.





Delver of Secrets probably makes a comeback. Access to a quick clock is likely to be vital in racing an army of Squirrels. The fact that Delver decks can also easily pack Echoing Truth and counters make them a solid choice in fighting Storm decks.





Black decks get a boost here. Echoing Decay is a decent card in its own right but can do serious work against an army of tokens. Black decks also can run Crypt Rats which can put a crimp in the plans of those squirrels.





The big losers in this world are Monarch and Tron. Don’t get me wrong, both of these will still be major players. However pushing the format closer to turn 3 to turn 4 makes it harder to justify taking the first three turns to play for a payoff. Tron could likely handle Affinity and other aggressive decks but will have to make concessions in the mana base in order to fight Storm early. Similarly, Monarch decks might find themselves under additional pressure from colorless creatures (Myr Enforcer and Salamyrdar Enforcer), meaning Prismatic Strands might not be good enough.





There’s more, of course. Until the games are actually played and cards are either banned or not banned everything is up in the air. Regardless, the next few weeks are going to be incredibly interesting and exciting.

	


	







	

		
May 15-16 Pauper Weekend in Review
	


	
	

		

We are now second four weeks of Strixhaven season. The May 15 and May 16 Pauper Challenges showcased a continuation of trends seen in the first four weeks.










Spellstutter Sprite decks performed extremely well this past weekend, taking down 5 Top 8 slots overall. The other top decks from the first month – Burn, Grixis Affinity, and Flicker Tron – stood strong and had a decent showing. The success of Boros Monarch on Saturday should not come as a shock. Boros Monarch has traditionally been strong against Spellstutter Sprite decks and Burn while having the tools to easily negate Affinity (between Gorilla Shaman and Prismatic Strands). It follows that it was well positioned to have a solid showing. The question is whether or not it can keep pace with the rest of the format. Last week I said I expected to see a rise in Pestilence as a way to counteract Faeries. I dun goofed but seeing Boros Monarch thrive on Saturday means that if you  came to beat Faeries and Burn you were on the right track. 





Looking ahead to next weekend I would want to be off of Burn. I think its time in the spotlight has passed and we are going to see more life gain in the next few Challenges. Ramp decks could be poised to succeed next weekend for a few reasons. First is that they can match up well against Spellstutter Sprite decks, especially if they can get a jump on the first few turns. Cascade and Bonder’s Ornament means that they can keep on cards with Monarch. Finally these decks also have access to the tools to fight Affinity.





These decks can struggle with hyper linear strategies, however. So if I wanted to juke the ramp players I would be exploring my friend Slippery Bogle or trying to set up a Tuktuk Rubblefort.





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