Not Very Effective: A Fearless GBL Inventory

After climbing to about 2614 in Ultra League Premier Cup I hit a wall that I put up myself. After years I finally had access to a decent PVP IV Heracross and wanted to put it to use, and so I spent the final few days of the Premier Cup trying out team comps only to drop about 150 ELO. But it was alright because Great League was right around the corner and I had a couple of decent lineups ready to go for the home stretch and final push to my goal (ending above 2500 ELO). But my rebound never materialized. My sets continued to end in more losses than wins and I got frustrated. I fell into old habits.

After a few practice battles with a friend I realized that I had to work on my mental game. And to that I turned to the other game I play regularly: Magic. There’s a concept from the game – coined by a former high level player and later designer of Magic Sam Stoddard – called the Fearless Magical Inventory.

The idea is simple: you are ruthlessly honest with yourself about your shortcomings with a game. This is not to beat yourself up but rather to find places to improve. And so with that in mind, I am going to attempt my first Fearless GBL Inventory:

1. I don’t practice enough: This one is simple as I still see the game as a diversion. I know I should practice battling more, especially with regards to reading team comps and move counting. It’s easy for me to say that I have a full-time job, freelance work, and a toddler at home as reasons that I don’t practice enough, but if I want to continue to improve at GBL I have to practice more. Maybe that means dedicating a set everyday to practicing, focusing on playing correctly and trying new things, or maybe it means expanding my friend network in game to get more practice in. However I can’t improve if I don’t take battles a little more seriously.

2. I blame my team comps: I probably spend too much time trying to craft good teams on PVPoke. Teams with good coverage and ones that handle the perceived metagame well. And then when I test out those teams I believe they should carry me and not the other way around. And so I get frustrated and blame the team almost more than myself in these situations. This is a bit of the inverse of the dreaded “algorithm”, where you blame your opponent’s team comps for your losses. The truth is, I picked the team, I built it, and if a team failed that isn’t the team comp’s fault but rather my own.

3. I get attracted to new and off-meta picks: I consume a decent amount of content and when something off meta or new gets featured, I immediately want to try it out for myself (cough cough Heracross cough cough). This happened with Galvantula before the Lunge buff and happened earlier this week with Greedent. Heck, it happened in the first half of this season where I was dead set on making a purified Dusclops work. I was so concerned with trying to make one element of my team function that I put wins at risk. I need to cut this out if I want to hit my goals in Season 9.

4. I have trouble reading meta shifts: If there is one thing I have noticed in my various climbs this season it is that ever 150-200 ELO points, the meta will shift. But sometimes the metagame can shift from set to set within that band. I struggle to see these changes and anticipate what changes I should make to my team (if any) or changes in strategic approach. This influences my next point…

5. I am too quick to change teams: If a team struggles for more than a day I tend to abandon it even though my best runs have come when I stick with a team through rough times. I can’t always handle losing set after set.

6. I don’t like ABB line ups: I feel that ABB team compositions leave you very vulnerable in the back and as a result I don’t give them proper credit. This is a leak in my game and one I have to work on as ABB lineups are an important tool in one’s arsenal.

7. I lose count of moves: Not much else to say here – I am still working on counting moves during competing animations.

8. I haven’t memorized move sets and charge times

9. I over estimate my ability to get off “one more move”

10: I have to improve at the physical mechanics of the game

11. I sometimes play when I am not able to fully focus on the game

12. I don’t have a good trade network to reroll IVs

13. I don’t have a good raid network to chase high value options with greater consistency

14. I am stingy with Elite TMs even if they would improve my options

15. I have not put in the work to grind to level 40 to access XL options

And this isn’t everything. I know there are more elements of my game that need improvement. But most of these are things that I can work on in the short and long term as a way to be a better battler.

So where does that leave me on the precipice of Go Battle Night? Well, I’m starting out with Shiftry – Skarmory – Galarian Stunfisk. And we’ll see where things go from there.

August 21-22 Pauper Weekend in Review

There is not a ton to say at this point. After three weekends in the second block of Forgotten Realms season, only 8 archetypes clear the 2% threshold for Top 32 volume.

I’m trying to think of other things to say – of other ways to talk about this format. But words are failing me. The top three decks account for almost 68% of the Top 32 volume and almost 75% of the Wins above X-3. Not only are these decks the most popular by a wide margin, but they are also performing a little above expectation overall. Combined these three archetypes have 34 of the possible 48 Top 8s in the past three weeks (almost 71%).

And yet Pauper soldiers on. Over time these three will continue to chew up more metagame share and push other strategies to the fringes. Pauper can be salvaged, action just needs to be taken.

August 14-15 Pauper Weekend in Review

We are in the second four week chunk of Adventures in the Forgotten Realms season. After the Saturday and Sunday Challenges here is what the winner’s metagame looks like over the past four events (minimum 3 Top 32 appearances):

I am not going to spend a lot of time talking about the metagame as very little has changed. The best decks are the best by a proverbial order of magnitude. Instead I want to talk about what it is going to take to fix Pauper beyond a Chatterstorm ban.

First up, I think you absolutely have to hit Affinity. There are two viable options in my estimation: Atog and the new Indestructible Artifact Lands. While the Atog camp has some valid opinions I think the better target are the lands. Affinity has been in the format forever and Atog has been a part of the deck for much of its history. The big thing that held Affinity back was the vulnerability of its mana base. The fact that Affinity was such a high power deck and yet could be constrained if the meta was prepared was something I considered a feature of the format – someone who metagamed correctly could pick their spot with Affinity and do exceedingly well. The Indestructible Lands take away that vulnerability, making Affinity a low risk-high reward choice.

Affinity before Modern Horizons 2 is the deck many Pauper players want Storm to be – a strong option that can win but has available counterplay. Something Storm will likely never have. But we can return to this model of Affinity with banning the lands.

Now this is not great! It’s ten cards from the latest set as opposed to one card form the earliest years of Magic. And if Affinity were the only decks using these lands then maybe you could make a case for Atog. But we have also seen a rise of “good card soup” decks using the combination of these lands and Cleansing Wildfire to both ramp and draw cards. These decks are slowly creeping towards Arcum’s Astrolabe levels of core homogenity and if Pauper leaves the lands in tact I believe they will lead to less diversity in midrange decks over time.

After that I think you have to hit Tron and Monarch. These two cores have been dominant for far too long and have hindered development/diversity in both control and midrange decks. Tron makes any other long game deck obsolete thanks to its mana abundance. Monarch provides a hard to assail card advantage engine. Four years ago there were relatively few Pauper cards that could draw you a card every turn and now the list is far more robust (there are three new cards in Modern Horizons 2 alone).

Those are the bans I would make. I see Snuff Out bandied about a bunch since it’s a “free” spell that some see as running afoul of the justification for banning Daze and Gush. I think Snuff Out is a fair card and in a format with true aggro decks the four life is a significant drawback.

That takes care of cards I think need to leave the format. But that won’t be enough to rescue Pauper from its current state. There needs to be a reason to play Pauper if you aren’t a format regular. Before the proliferation of Cubes on Magic Online Pauper was a common pre-rotation distraction. Now, between Cube and Arena, if you’re sick of Standard then there are plenty of other formats to play and occupy your time. Now I could sit here all day and yell all day about how when Pauper is good, it’s a great format to play.

But that won’t matter if there isn’t something in it for people. Maybe it’s more Showcase Qualifiers or PTQs (or whatever they are called today). Maybe it’s making the MOCS – the one broadcast every quarter – use Pauper as one of its formats. I am not sure that the vocal and vibrant community can sustain Pauper without being able to draw more people in.

And that’s a shame because as I said, when Pauper is good, it’s great.

Not Very Effective: Hitting Veteran

When we last left off I had a team set for my climb to Veteran. I had Roserade in the front with Gallade on the switch, Magnezone in the back. After running into one too many Dragonite leads I flipped my lead and close and was ready to make my run.

And then I dropped down to a 2315 ELO. Thankfully someone had commented on my post, suggesting a team that lead on Roserade with an Alolan Muk on the switch, Sirfetch’d in the back. I commented that the team was incredibly soft to flyers which prompted a “well you’re right” but it got me thinking as to what flying types I was seeing. Usually they were Charizard, Dragonite, and Talonflame. The redditor had suggested meshing my two teams and they were right, but got the closer wrong.

The team I have been using since that post is as follows:

Roserade on the lead with Bullet Seed – Weather Ball (Fire)/Leaf Storm.

Alolan Muk as a safe swap with Poison Jab – Dark Pulse/Sludge Wave

Lapras as the closer with Ice Shard – Surf/Ice Beam

Here are my end of day ELOs since running that squad:

  • 2356
  • 2444
  • 2545

So yes, this is the team I used to hit Veteran and am likely to keep using for the time being as I try to push my ELO higher still. My goal is to end this season as Veteran with an over 2500 ELO with a stretch goal of hitting expert. Both are in my grasp but I need to play smart.

Roserade is a strong lead. It has relatively few bad matchups (I only instantly swap if I see a flying type or a fire type). You can easily build up to a Weather Ball or Leaf Storm to pressure opponents and force them to shield. Against Empoleon leads I tend to build up to a Leaf Storm and unleash it before swapping into Muk in an effort to catch their move. If they don’t shield it almost one shots them and if they do, I am in a position to farm. The other interesting lead to face is Abomasnow as you can get to a Weather Ball before they get to theirs, allowing you to pressure shields and swap.

A-Muk is a great switch and Poison Jab gives it some fast move pressure. At the advice of that same redditor, I build up to a Sludge Wave and then lead with a Dark Pulse. This usually gets the shield which then lets me either farm down or pressure with Dark Pulse.

Lapras does Lapras things. It chews through Dragonite and most flyers while pressuring Talonflame with Surf. While not the fastest attacker, it serves as a solid anchor for the team that can help cover many of Roserade’s shortcomings.

This team is about energy management and well timed swaps. Roserade can generate energy at a pretty good clip and as such to can easily have a move stored on it when you swap. Leaf Storm is also a move some people do not anticipate to come first – I took out a Lapras lead today by unloading a Leaf Storm which prompted an instant concession. Muk can pressure some opposing swaps with Poison Jab, letting you build up a move on your swap. I also will often build up to two Surfs on Lapras in an effort to chunk down the opponent and have something in the tank.

I am under no illusions that this is a top tier team – it’s serviceable. What it is, however, is accessible to players under level 40, giving those of us without access to XL Pokemon a shot against the bulkier battlers. And while it is not a guarantee, this team does have game against XL Umbreon, XL Mandibuzz, and XL Stunfisk. Lapras is decent against all three and Roserade can pressure Umbreon and Stunfisk.

Since finishing my climb to Veteran I’ve bumped up to 2603 ELO with a few more sets to finish today. Here’s to keeping my head on straight as I keep on climbing.

Not Very Effective: Time for Premier Cup

It’s been a hot minute since I updated the world on my trials in PokemonGo Battle League. Participating in Open Ultra League was interesting. After settling into Gengar-Gyarados-Lapras, I had a fairly steady climb. After my last post where my ELO stood at 2248, here is how things went leading up to the switch to Ultra Premier Cup (these represent my end of day ELO rating):

  • 2318
  • 2302
  • 2290
  • 2417
  • 2431
  • 2431
  • 2474

That 2474 came on last Saturday. I took off Sunday, confident that Veteran rank was in reach. I did one set of Open Ultra on Monday where I went 1-4 and dropped to 2432. I was not worried as I knew I had a good line for the Premier Cup and waited for the roll over before getting in a few more sets.

My line starting Premier Cup was Sirfetch’d in the lead (Counter-Leaf Blade/Brave Bird), Alolan Muk on the swap (Poison Jab – Dark Pulse/Acid Spray) and Lapras in the back (Ice Shard – Ice Beam/Surf). This was the team I had settled on last Premier Cup and carried my final few sets in a positive direction.

After going 3-2 in my first set to boost my rating back 2447 I went 2-8 across my next two sets with this team and ended Monday at 2363. My confidence in the lineup wavered and I tried to figure out where I was losing.

Some of it was me being out of practice. There was one match I lost where I had a Brave Bird loaded against a Venusaur with one shield. Connecting with Brave Bird would win me the match. Instead I tried to bait with Leaf Blade and they didn’t shield. This was a mistake as I should have realized Brave Bird was my best win condition. I had a Lapras left that they did not know about. The Lapras could have chunked down Venusaur and maybe I would have been able to get off another Brave Bird in the end.

That being said I was seeing a number of backlines that were giving me trouble. Abomasnow, Empoleon, and Venusaur in the back gave me fits. Once I get more reps in this time around in Ultra Premier, these are the kind of lines I can reliably predict and then line up my Sirfetch’d line correctly. This early in a cup’s life, however, I am still sussing out what people are running and have not built up enough pattern recognition to figure out proper alignment.

After two match losses Tuesday morning, I switched to my other old reliable Ultra Premier line. This one sees Roserade (Bullet Seed – Weather Ball-Fire/Leaf Storm) in the lead with Gallade on the switch (Confusion – Leaf Blade/Close Combat) and Magnezone (Spark – Mirror Shot/Wild Charge) in the back. The idea behind this comp is that Roserade can put on a ton pressure early with its quick charging moves. It also can chew up leads like Venusaur and Empoleon while holding its own against anything that isn’t Flying or Fire type. Gallade is a solid swap and Confusion can chunk down a ton. Magnezone is there as a way to handle problematic flyers and deal with Dragon types while also putting in work against Abomasnow.

After going 0-2 with my original line I managed a 2-0-1 to round out my first set of Tuesday (2362). I then rattled off three straight 3-2 sets to boost me up to 2404. I should have put down my phone and called it a day. I had a positive run and was getting the hang of my team again as I am pretty sure I left at least three wins on the table from being out of practice.

Reader, you can see where this is going.

My last set was a 1-4 affair that plummeted me to 2360. Here there were at least two games I could have conceivably won if I had played correctly. I think I was too distracted and too eager to get my sets in. I saw the chance to make more progress towards my season goal (hitting Veteran and ending above a 2500 ELO) and instead got jumpy.

So tomorrow I’m going to try something different. I’m going to take my time and if I can end up going positive after two sets, I might do one more. If I’m negative, there’s a good chance I’ll let it lie for a day until I can get my head right again. There are a few more weeks to go and I know I can hit my target.

I just can’t get in my own way.

August 7-8 Pauper Weekend in Review

We have entered the second four week chunk of the Dungeons & Dragons: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms season. This is normally a time to take stock and see where the format is trending. The August 7 and August 8 Challenges gave us an insight into which way the wind is blowing. Spoiler alert: Not much has changed.

Let’s get a few things out of the way. 64% of the Top 32 ran one of the big three decks. They took down over 83% of all wins above an X-3 record. These decks took down 11 out of 16 Top 8 slots.

I really don’t have much else to say at this point. Dimir Faeries was the best deck on the weekend and Squirrel Storm continues to exert its unique pressure. Even when Dust to Dust is the most commonly played card in the format, Affinity put up pretty good numbers overall.

So what can you do if you do not want to play one of these? I’m not entirely sure. I would want to start on running red removal for cards like Electrostatic Bolt and Flame Slash, but you will also need a way to handle Gurmag Angler – Unholy Heat springs to mind. Similarly you will need a way to handle an army of Squirrels as early as turn two. Is it time for Simian Spirit Guide in order to high roll a turn two Fiery Cannonade? I’m not saying no…

July 31-August 1 Pauper Weekend in Review

Let’s get on with it. After the July 31 and August 1 Pauper Challenge, the first four weeks of Dungeons & Dragons: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms season looks like this:

This chart includes all archetypes to clear the 2% volume threshold (approximately 5 appearances)

It’s hard to separate this chart from the problems currently facing the format. Storm, Dimir, and Affinity represent a nigh-unassailable Big 3. Storm has 31.25% of all Top 8s while just over 21% of Top 32 volume. Dimir Delver/Faeries combine for 23.44% of all Top 8s with just over 18% of Top 32 Volume. Affinity is the most popular deck but has just under 22% of all Top 8s despite making up almost 27% of the Top 32 volume. Combined these decks account for around 66% of the Top 32 metagame.

How do they stack up against the rest of the field?

Weighted Volume takes each deck in the Top 32 Swiss result and compares it to an X-3 record. For each Swiss win above X-3 a deck gets 1 point. Totally the number of Top 32 wins above X-3, that gives us a pool and then we can use this number to see how decks are doing relative to each other. These three decks combined are occupying over 77% of that Winner’s Metagame.

I am not going to rehash potential solutions to the problems here (hint hint: cards need to banned). What I do want to propose is a way to try and prevent this from happening again. And with that I’m going to make a plea to the fine folks who make Magic:

Don’t stop making high impact cards for Pauper, however please do not be afraid of banning cards on Day Zero. Twice in the past calendar year cards have been released into the format that, before their release, people inside and outside the building saw as problematic (Fall from Favor and Chatterstorm). In both instances, these people were correct. Pauper is relatively small compared to the target format for both of these cards (Limited game play) and banning them before they saw any play would do very little to hurt their intended utility.

And since I know that Day Zero bans are not likely to happen (and would set a dangerous precedent if they did come to pass), please consider expedited bans if fears bear fruit.

What You Shouldn’t Do in GBL

If you’re the kind of person to go looking for Go Battle League advice on the internet, there’s going to be a few people who tell you to stick with a team. It’s a logical conclusion as good team comps should have play against a wide swath of the metagame. You’re also likely to find people telling you to avoid playing while tilted. That is to say play when your mind is clear and you’re not in the midst of a losing streak; when you can focus on the battles themselves.

As someone who plays the game from a disadvantage (one of my own making as I am not level 40 and have not dedicated myself to finding a full suite of GBL staples), I find these statements to ring a little hollow. While I may be able to come up with solid team comps, there is something to be said for when the meta shifts with your ELO and suddenly your team is no longer finding the right matchups to succeed. For me, especially after coming off a series of good sets, this can lead to tilt.

After closing out Wednesday at 2205 I felt good. Thursday things went a bit sideways. I had two sets where I had two wins, two losses, and a draw and five wins across the other three sets. This dropped me to 2133. I figured that the Sirfetch’d-Lapras’-AMuk team was still a solid choice given that those two draws came down to lag and just mistiming moves. I resolved to have a better day on Friday.

Friday started worse. I dropped to 2119 in my first set before bouncing back to 2134 in my second. Then in my third I just ran into awkward leads and I started to panic. I finished at 2118 and put the game down. I tried to figure out a way forward given what I was seeing. For whatever reason I was running into more and more XL Talonflame – something my team had trouble handling. While Lapras had a solid matchup I could not line up my squad such that Lapras could square off against the fire bird.

I made a chart of the backlines I was running up against and noticed a trend of Fire/Flying types and Steel or Fire/Flying and Fairy. I was also running into a fair share of Ghosts and Fighters/Counter users in the front. Finally I saw a smattering of Venusaur and Swampert as well, and more than one Cresselia and Umbreon.

Armed with this I went back to something I often use when trying to climb out of a ditch – an ABB line. I am not a huge fan of these all the time but they can give me a feeling of agency over my battles in a way that forces me to focus. Given what I was seeing I figured that a double Water backline, while risky given Venusaur and Melmetal, gave me a good chance against everything else I was seeing.

I put Gengar (Shadow Claw-Shadow Punch/Shadow Ball) in the lead with Gyarados (Dragon Breath-Aqua Tail/Crunch) on the switch. Lapras (Ice Shard-Surf/Ice Beam) remains my closer of choice this season. In the seven sets since I switched to this team I rose from 2118 to 2248 (5-0, 3-2, 4-1, 2-3, 3-2, 1-4, 4-1).

The team works like many ABB lines where you will swap into Gyarados to draw out whatever is best against a Water type only to close things out with Lapras. But make no mistake – this team is carried by Gengar. Gengar can put a ton of pressure on opponents early thanks to its raw damage output and games often hinge on proper use of Gengar.

If I have an advantageous lead I’ll stay in and against a bad lead I will instantly swap. Against middling leads, however, is where I go dancing. I will often build up to a Shadow Ball and launch a Shadow Punch, then swap immediately into Gyarados. This move is most effective against both Talonflame and Empoleon leads as I can soak their move and then farm down with Dragon Breath or build up to a decent energy reserve. I then have residual energy on Gengar that I can use to pressure whatever comes in the back. It also allows me to preserve shields for Gengar which is vital in the mid and late game.

The thing that scares me most with this team is Venusaur because of course it does. Now Venusaur is not unbeatable thanks to Gengar and even Lapras has some game if you have a shield or energy advantage. Still, the best place to see Venusaur is in the lead where you can position your Gengar and Lapras ideally to farm it.

How long will I stick with this team? As long as I can. I’m under no illusions that too many teams involving Venusaur and Melmetal can end my gains. I also am going to have to watch for when the tides shift and I start seeing more Obstagoon in the front. For now though I’m going to keep trying to claw my way up the ladder.

The Search for a Shorter Title: GBL Open Ultra Day 2

Technically today was a success in that I gained ELO – up from 2193 to 2205. Such a small gain tells its own story. Let’s start with my first set where I ran the same squad as yesterday.

Note: I won’t list every battle, instead only focusing on those that proved interesting.

I went 1-4 in my first set which dropped be down to 2148. Some of these losses were bad matchups and one definitely was an overtap loss. The worst, however, was one where I did not burn a shield. I lost to Articuno lead with Swampert and Registeel in the back. On pure matchups I should have had a fair shot at a win. Not knowing my move counts against Articuno cost me as I let a Hurricane hit my Typhlosion and that was the deal breaker. If I had that health I likely would have been able to close it out but instead I ended up in the hole to start the day.

Given the last three sets I had with the Typhlosion team (1-4, 3-2, 1-4) I was already feeling as if the meta at my current ELO was hostile to my squad. I figured that an Incinerate fast move on Typhlosion would help some but I am not a fan of such slow animations on my lead. Instead I looked at the common leads I had faced over those sets and saw a decent number of Steel types and a lot of Obstagoon. A quick trip to PVPoke gave me the lead I needed: Escavalier (Counter – Drill Run/Megahorn). Escavalier is a ‘Mon I’ve used before and felt comfortable putting them in the front. I saw that my same Lapras (Ice Shard – Surf/Ice Beam) would be a solid cover. But that left me with the need for a safe swap. I knew I wanted something that could help against Machamp and Giratina – two opponents I had seen often – without being a dog to Steel types.

I settled on Flygon (Dragon Tail – Earth Power/Dragon Claw). Flygon may not have been the best choice but I have been interested in trying them out since the Dragon Tail rework and I figured that if it didn’t work I had this blog to keep me honest about that.

In my next 4 sets I went 3-2 every time for a total record of 12-8, and I definitely left two wins on the table. Here are some of my more interesting battles:

  • Clefable – Lapras – Registeel (Loss): This was in my first set with the team and going into the endgame I knew I wanted to bring in a full health Flygon to go against Registeel. But for some reason when my switch timer came up I went for Escavalier, which was low on health, and ended up losing the match.
  • Shadow Snorlax – Sirfetch’d – Abomasnow (Win): I thought I was toast. The match came down to Lapras against Abomasnow when I had one shield left. I had to shield an Energy Ball and I was sure my opponent was going to build up to a second Energy Ball and end my day. Instead they threw a Weather Ball and ditched, allowing me to farm down their Sirfetch’d to build up to an Ice Beam and snatch victory.
  • Machamp – Venusaur – Giratina (Win): I was down to a low health Escavalier and an unseen Lapras and figured that I was going to get farmed down by Machamp. Instead I blind swapped into Lapras and they did the same into Giratina. That gave me an opening to farm their dragon down and go on to win.
  • Gardevoir – Scizor – Empoleon (Win): My last battle of the day, I was able to win because my opponent got greedy. They over charged Empoleon in farming down my Flygon and I brought in a full health Lapras. They kept farming down, throwing one Drill Peck. I kept chugging along, building up to Surf when they swapped into Scizor. Scizor was at a pretty low HP count and I was able to farm it down enough, soaking Night Slashes, to the point where they brought in Empoleon again I could connect with one Surf for the win.

I am very likely to run this team back tomorrow. While I’m not seeing nearly as many Obstagoon leads (only two in the four sets), I saw enough Fairy and Steel types that Escavalier makes sense in the front.