NerdtotheCore

This past weekend saw the first Pauper Challenges where Neon Dynasty was legal. The set is jam packed with power and over the Saturday and Sunday Challenges seven new cards made the Top 32 cut.

In a surprise to almost no one, Moon-Circuit Hacker was the most popular Neon Dynasty card last weekend. Various Faerie decks – Delver, Dimir Faeries, Faeries, and Izzet Faeries – all ran the new ninja. Despite being obviously powerful, Faeries as a macro strategy struggled possibly in part because everyone knew it would show up.

When a card as clearly good as Hacker gets printed, it makes sense to either have a deck that beats Hacker or the best Hacker deck that beats Hacker and its predators. Last weekend it was the former that excelled.

Faerie decks were the most popular option on the weekend with 20 Top 32 finishes across the two challenges. However they only had 8 total wins above an X-3 record and two total Top 8 finishes. So what did well?

It should come as no surprise that both Affinity and Boros variants excelled in the world of Hacker. Boros is traditionally strong against Faerie strategies and Affinity, in its Rakdos variety, is perhaps the single most assertive deck in the format. Affinity saw 13 Top 32 finishes with 9 wins above an X-3 record (across two different builds) and had an impressive five Top 8s.

But Boros came out swinging. In 10 total appearances across four strategies – Boros Bully, Boros Metalcraft, Boros Monarch, and Kuldotha Boros – Boros had 13 wins above and X-3 record, six Top 8 finishes, and won both challenges. Part of this speaks to the versatility of the color pair but out of these 9 decks, 8 were aggressive. While it does not have Moon-Circuit Hacker it still has Kor Skyfisher which continues to do a great job of blocking Ninjas. Combine the veteran powerhouse with rookie sensation Experimental Synthesizer and you have a recipe for a ton of card flow in a shell that can also leverage Galvanic Blast. If I had to iterate on a deck for next weekend’s Challenges it would be Boros Metalcraft:

That being said I believe there is merit to exploring more controlling decks at the moment. While this first weekend featured a ton of assertive decks – that is decks trying to dictate the field of battle as early as turn one – so many of the best decks relied on one toughness creatures. A deck that can both resolve Eyeblight Massacre and handle Myr Enforcer (and friends) could make waves this weekend. That is a pretty big ask so it might be more reasonable to adapt one of the black based midrange decks to be stronger against Affinity.

That, of course, is a task in its own right.

Let’s cut right to the chase. The following chart tracks the top decks from the post-ban Challenges except for one from late January that did not post. Decks in blue met the 2% threshold of at least 4 Top 32 appearances in that span. Decks in red have a Top 8 finish but failed to meet that same appearance threshold.

Affinity had a great stretch leading some to wonder aloud if the bans had any impact. Looking at Affinity’s combined volume here, it is below 20%. In the Crimson Vow Challenges before the ban Affinity combined to take down nearly 30% of the metagame. When it came to Weighted meta, Affinity topped 32% whereas here it is still under 20%. In other words, the bans did work in weakening Affinity without killing it outright.

With that out of the way, we can extrapolate from the top decks moving into Neon Dynasty season might be: Affinity clearly will remain a force in the format, as will Faeries and Boros Bully. Beyond that, things get murky.

Bogles could get a boost with the latest set thanks to an Enchantment-matters theme. Goblin Combo could add Experimental Synthesizer to the mix as a way to churn through their deck. Mono Black Control has the potential to put up results provided it can keep up with the metagame. And let’s not forget Faerie decks get another Ninja to add to the squad…

The future is far more fluid, however. Neon Dynasty is jam packed with powerful cards that could reshape the format just as easily as enhance existing options. I cannot remember a Standard legal set that had this much Pauper potential. While I am concerned that the rich are going to get richer once the new set hits digital shelves, I am just as optimistic that we are going to see a ton of new decks spring into existence.

The bans are in the books and we have a new format. The January 22 and January 23 Challenges were the first major events to take place since the ban of Atog, Bonder’s Ornament, and Prophetic Prism. Affinity won Saturday’s tournament while Cycling Songs took down Sunday. Here is a breakdown of the Top 32:

It is still too early to draw conclusions and realistically the format is likely to change again in a few weeks once Neon Dynasty hits the digital shelves. That being said there are a few nuggets of data worth exploring.

Affinity is alive and well

The goal of the Atog ban was to bring Affinity back to the rest of the pack. While it is only two tournaments, that seems to be the case at least in the early returns. Affinity is still a powerful deck but definitely lost a step. It will be interesting to see which build reigns supreme – already we’ve seen Glaze Fiend and Resculpt make appearances – but don’t skimp on your artifact hate just yet.

Where is Tron?

One of the critiques of the Bonder’s Ornament and Prophetic Prism ban was that it would hurt other decks more than Tron. However, Tron did not put up any result this weekend while Pestilence Control – one of the decks that was considered collateral damage – put up two strong finishes including a finals appearance. I don’t anticipate this being a regular occurrence. Instead once people figure out how to build Tron for the current metagame I fully expect it to make a return. I also anticipate Pestilence to take a decline as people adjust to fight Boros Bully.

Bullying the Metagame

Boros Bully appears to be the early deck to beat. It had a solid weekend and players are still figuring out the optimal composition of the deck. It is possible that as Affinity sees a decline Thraben Inspector can make a return. However if creatures are running rampant having an extra blocker in Lunarch Veteran might be just what the legion ordered.

The Crown in the Room

On Saturday 12 of the Top 32 decks were running the Monarch. On Sunday 16 of the Top 32 decks featured the mechanic. Overall that’s nearly 44% of the Top 32 metagame. Out of the Top 16 decks, 9 were running at least one Monarch enabling creature. While this is not a cause for alarm – the decks were relatively varied in strategy – it is something that should be noted if the trend continues for the next several weeks.

This is compounded by the fact that one of the strategies that can best leverage the Monarch are those built around Spellstutter Sprite. Dimir and Izzet Faeries combined for a dozen Top 32 finishes and went unscathed in the last round of bans. The question that remains is not whether or not these decks will succeed, but rather their win share. The reemergence of Stompy, at least for a moment, gives me hope that the metagame can apply enough pressure to Faeries to keep them in check.

But time will tell on that one.

Happy New Year everyone!

After a brief hiatus, I am back to talk about – what else? – Pauper! The second four weeks of Crimson Vow season have wrapped up which gives us another huge set of data to examine. For reference, these images include every deck that either finished with at least one Top 8 or had 2% of the Top 32 metagame.

Here is the chart recording the first four weeks of the season:

And here are the four most recent weeks:

I am going to hold off on a deep dive for the time being, but instead I want to focus on what I see as key points:

• Bogles has emerged as the premier Ethereal Armor deck. Heroic made a case for itself in the first four weeks but more or less fell off in the December. Only Affinity, Boros Bully, and Delver had more Top 8s in the past four weeks than the slippery ones.
• Dimir Faeries continues to fall. The deck is still fairly popular but access to good artifact removal seems to be pushing Izzet Faeries back up the power rankings.
• Delver is still solid. Some folks like to sleep on plain old Delver decks as they do not do anything flashy. Six Top 8 finishes is impressive.
• If you want to attack, you better have Rally the Peasants. There’s no other way to say this – attacking without some sort of force multiplier is just a losing proposition these days.
• Affinity remains stupid good. Almost 29% of the Top 32. Almost 36% of the Top 8 slots. Five wins in eight challenges. Affinity remains the defining deck of the Pauper Challenge metagame. Heck, across the entire season so far, Affinity has over 40% of all Top 8s alongside 9 wins out of 19 Challenge level events.

Here’s one more chart. This takes into account every deck with at least 2% of the Challenge meta or a Top 8 finish. Decks in the red did not meet the 2% threshold but have a Top 8:

Affinity might be defining the format right now, but both Boros Bully and Delver are top tier strategies with Flicker Tron and Izzet Faeries not that far behind. If not for the sheer volume of Affinity that is seeing play (it has more Top 32 finishes than the next four most populous combined), the metagame would appear to be fairly vibrant,

Like so many other times in Pauper’s history, there’s an amazing metagame taking place outside the dominant strategy. I am hopeful that this year, we can get a metagame that doesn’t have an asterisk.