This week on ChannelFireball I get introspective. I turned 40 last month and it got me thinking about a lot of different things, so I decided to be a bit self indulgent and put digital pen to paper. You can check it out here.
Four Weeks Later – Pauper After the Monastery Swiftspear Ban
Happy 2024 everyone!
After some time away from writing I am back in the saddle (if you consider this chair at my kitchen table a saddle) and ready to dive back into Pauper. The format has had more than a month to adjust to the absence of Monastery Swiftspear and things are starting to come into focus. We aren’t getting as clear a picture as we normally would, at least about the top of the metagame as the last two Sunday Challenges failed to fire. I would hesitate to read too much into this fact as those events fell on Christmas Eve (or Christmas Eve Day) and New Year’s Eve (or the associated day) and well, people may have had more important (and dare I say fun?) things to do with their time.
But there has been another (exceedingly welcome) update: Daybreak Games, the outfit that currently manages Magic Online has started sharing every decklist from the challenges, not just the Top 32. This is awesome as it provides a more complete picture of what is going on every weekend. That being said it did present me with a conundrum as the data I historically collect and present has been based on the Top 32 data. With access to records I could create a more robust image of the metagame but while doable it would require more time than I currently can dedicate to this endeavor. But the data is still important so here is where I landed: My usual Top 32 analysis will continue as it has for the past several years but it will now be provided with the context of the entire Challenge metagame. This will provide a more complete picture, including how well archetypes are doing with regards to breaking through to the so-called winner’s metagame.
With that out of the way, it’s time for this preamble once more: I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
Here is what the Pauper Challenge metagame looks like over the past six Challenge events on Magic Online. The cutoff for having an archetype listed outside of Other is ~2% raw volume (minimum 7 appearances) and there are 34 strategies that fail to meet this threshold.
From a raw volume standpoint the format looks to be in a good place with two different aggressive strategies topping 10% of the aggregate meta. A board control deck – Black Gardens – comes in at 10%, while two blue tempo/control decks in Terror and Dimir Faeries round out the top 5. From a macro level the format is looking to be in a good spot.
So what happens when you look at just the Top 32 metagame? Here the Top 5 decks break down like this with regards to volume (or presence):
- Glitter Affinity – 11.89%
- Blue Terror – 10.94%
- Kuldotha Red – 9.9%
- Black Gardens – 8.33%
- Dimir Faeries – 7.29%
Glitter Affinity remains the top deck in the Top 32 isolated meta by volume, out performing its total presence which indicates the deck is a solid choice. Blue Terror’s Top 32 rate is over 2% better than the Challenge at large which is not a surprise given the strength of the cards involved. Kuldotha Red’s share is largely in line with how often it gets played. Dimir Faeries steps it up as well while Black Gardens takes a decent step backwards. Overall the story here is that being assertive in some capacity remains a powerful option in Pauper if you want to make it to the Top 32 of a Challenge. Gardens and Faeries are more reactive in nature while the other three big players have a more proactive gameplan.
How about winner’s meta share? How do these decks stack up?
- Kuldotha Red – 11.19%
- Glitter Affinity – 10.27%
- Blue Terror – 9.17%
- Black Gardens – 8.61%
- Jeskai Glitters – 6.81%
What about Dimir Faeries? It comes in at seventh place with 5.59% of the winner’s meta share, coming in behind CawGate (6.31%). The strength of Kuldotha Red here and the addition of Jeskai Glitters (which runs Galvanic Blast) points at a format that rewards getting ahead early and shutting the door with cheap burn. How do things look once we take into account adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement – a metric that measures relative strength of archetypes?
- Kuldotha Red – 1.21
- CawGate – 0.87
- Glitter Affinity – 0.62
- Black Gardens – 0.58
- Blue Terror – 0.45
With Jeskai Glitters just behind at 0.42. Dimir Faeries? That clocks in below average with an aMSAR of -0.03. Taken all together it sure looks like Kuldotha Red is the best deck in the format with a strong conversion rate to the Top 32 and an increasingly impressive position the higher up the standings you travel. We can also see the power of the archetype in the slow and steady rise of CawGate, a deck with a strong matchup against Kuldotha Red, as we get closer to the elimination rounds. Yet it is not the overwhelming force it was previously with other strategies remaining competitive.
What does this mean moving into the next stage of the meta? A dedicated control deck that does not account for starting the game at effectively 16 life is not going to succeed. With so many decks running Galvanic Blast and other burn spells to close things out having a plan to survive remains important. The absence of Monastery Swiftspear gives decks a little more time to develop their defenses before facing down lethal. I remain bullish on white midrange but Murmuring Mystic is a messed up Magic card and having that card in a control deck outside Jeskai Ephemerate seems like a great day to absorb some damage.
I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.
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The Post Ban Pauper Metagame
Today on ChannelFireball I do a slightly deeper dive on the post-ban metagame. You can check out the article here.
Given that we now get every decklist, I will continue to focus on the Top 32 (or winner’s) metagame with regards to my weekly posts but will also be providing it in the context of what those numbers mean given a deck’s total presence in the Challenge meta.
December 9-10 Pauper Weekend Recap
I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
Pauper has officially entered the post-Monastery Swiftspear era. This weekend provided our first real glimpse at the format without the hugely impactful one drop. While this is a small sample size to be sure it does provide some actionable information. Let’s get to two of my big takeaways from week one.
First, I think it is fair to say the format has slowed down some. Part of the stated intent of the Monastery Swiftspear ban was to give the format some time to breathe and develop. A turn one Swiftspear would set the tone of the entire game and force slower decks into an extremely defensive posture and could often leverage this early advantage to get over the finish line in the middle and latter stages of the game. A number of decks that have been forced to the fringes of the competitive metagame made a small comeback this week including Gruul Ramp and the combo version of WonderWalls (which tookdown the Sunday Challenge with a 10-0 run). Both Dimir and Izzet Control, which have been present but depressed in the meta, saw a small boost in overall numbers.
Why do I say some? Glitter Affinity was the most popular archetype over the weekend with 10 total appearances in the Top 32 and it did take down the Saturday Challenge. Black Gardens – a standout in the sea of red – remained a strong option with it’s board control plan. In other words, there is still a reason to be aggressive and a reason to defend against the early beatdown. As the meta continues to develop if it trends more towards the middle and less towards the extremes (as it did last weekend) then I think things are in a good place.
The second item to focus on is the presence of red. With six appearances across three archetypes it appears that players are still trying to figure out what these decks should look like moving forward. One thing to note is that the red “draw” spells, which drew the ire of some commenters, are not automatic inclusions anymore. Instead many of these decks are leaning more on Experimental Synthesizer for reloading and instead are trying to play off the top. The value of Reckless Impulse and Wrenn’s Resolve appear to be tied to their ability to convert to immediate damage (which is why they continue to see play in Burn builds). Without the pressure of Swiftspear converting these investments into potential damage immediately it makes sense that they have dropped off some. Again if this trend continues it will bode well for future iterations of red “draw” as additive to the format instead of taking something away from game play.
Looking ahead to next week I would want to be on an Orzhov build. I have been very bullish on the Kor Skyfisher builds as they have the ability to play true midrange, pivoting from aggro to control as the situation calls while not giving up on card flow. I am less keen on the Ephemerate builds at the moment but if one crops up that has a more assertive stance in the midgame I could be convinced.
I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.
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Pauper League Highlights – December 6
So did you hear that Monastery Swiftspear got banned?
Anyway, the most recent Pauper League results include a mix of decks from before the recent format update and after and as such I wanted to take a look at some of the decks that captured my attention in this new metagame.
This mash up of Mardu Synthesizer and Glitter Affinity feels like a decent take on a slower aggressive deck in the new landscape. This build takes some of the more assertive elements of Boros Synthesizer and pairs them with All That Glitters for a chance to pile on the damage. I think there’s a reasonable argument to be made for Fanatical Offering here as a way to increase the size of your threats.
Dimir Scam is what happens when you believe you need to resolve your haymakers as quickly as possible and ride them to victory. In a world where you are facing intense pressure starting on turn one these strategies make some more sense since the advantage the four drops generate is massive. However if the format slows down at all these decks take on a much greater risk.
These so called “Black Burn” decks crop up from time time to time and this one seems focused on having some element of board control while also leaning into the inevitability of Lembas and Cauldron Familiar. I am normally wary about these strategies but considering that this one was piloted to a trophy by Beicodegeia it probably deserves to be explored as a viable option.
Non-CawGate Basilisk Gate decks have fallen on hard times. This build is reminiscent of the old Abzan and Naya Gates lists from earlier this year. One thing I really like about this build is the addition of Fanatical Offering as additional ways to dig towards Basilisk Gate while also growing your unsolvable threats.
What? You thought red was dead? This seems like a much more reasonable red deck in the sense that while it is still clearly very good it has far more pinch points. The absence of Swiftspear makes toughness based removal significantly better which also informs some of the other choices in this deck. That being said I would rather have this version of red running around than one that gets to add an ever-growing threat to the mix.
I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.
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December 2-3 Pauper Weekend Recap
I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
Pauper is not a time capsule.
I want you to keep that in mind for today’s post. In case you have not yet heard, Monastery Swiftspear has been banned in Pauper. You can read the reasoning behind this update (and some of the other changes that were considered) in this post authored by Gavin Verhey on behalf of the Pauper Format Panel. If you want some insight into my thoughts on the format moving forward you can read that here.
During the tenure of its legality Monastery Swiftspear had a massive impact on Pauper. At a gameplay level it helped to polarize the metagame, encouraging decks to either win quickly or drag the game out through any means necessary to ensure survival. As more options were added to the available card pool, Swiftspear decks went from defining the metagame to warping the format around their inclusion. Looking at this phenomena at a format level, it was one of the first times in recent memory that an aggressive deck was one of the top strategies available in Pauper.
Pauper is not a time capsule. At various points the best deck in the format has been a control deck, a midrange deck, or a combo deck. An aggressive deck being a top tier strategy might be different but in it of itself is not anathema. When any deck warps the format around it that is when things warrant attention.
In the wake of the announcement there were more than a few voices who expressed discontent. The criticism was that this ban did not go after the correct card. Instead many people discussed Kuldotha Rebirth and the duo of Reckless Impulse and Wrenn’s Resolve. The central concept of these arguments seemed to boil down to “red should not have card draw”. While Rebirth enabled red to go wide (something it has always been able to do), the recent strength of red pushed this Scars of Mirrodin card to another level. Thanks to the low cost of powerful red spells these cards were essentially too good for Pauper and should be banned to bring red back to the pack.
Is Wrenn’s Resolve that much better than Of One Mind?
Pauper is not a time capsule. Red has had access to this style of card advantage for nearly a decade even if it is a relatively recent addition to Pauper. As these cards will continue to see print red will continue to have new choices to make in deck construction and the format will have to adapt to these new play patterns. That being said if one of these spells ever approaches the egregiousness of Treasure Cruise then something might have to give.
One of the biggest complaints of Pauper before the advent of the Pauper Format Panel was that it could stay stagnant for too long; that the metagame did not change quickly enough if at all. Recent years have given other strategies time in the spotlight even as old standbys continue to see heavy play and often perform rather well. As I have said before, Pauper has shifted from a midrange format to, at least for now, one where being assertive matters as well. Pining for the game play of your favorite era is a fine exercise but Pauper’s future cannot be shackled to its past.
Where does that leave things today? Aggressive decks, whether they are red or powered by Affinity remain viable. Time will tell if the absence of Swiftspear opens up the pool of effective removal that can help blunt assaults in the earliest turns of a game. Slower decks are more viable but by how much remains to be seen. And as Gavin said yesterday, if things are not working the Pauper Format Panel is willing to take further action.
For now we are entering a different format. Kuldotha Red was far and away the best deck in Pauper during Lost Caverns of Ixalan season with an adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 0.95 (the next best deck was CawGate at 0.59). Red is not going anywhere but I don’t expect it to be this far ahead of the field. Instead it is likely to come back to the pack. I think CawGate and Black Gardens (aMSAR of 0.49) are going to be a step behind, at least early on, as they adjust to a world without Swiftspear. White midrange, whether Boros or Orzhov, likely have an edge in the early going by being chock full of generically good cards. In other words, you better have a plan for Ephemerate strategies in week one.
I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.
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Know Your Enemy: Red Decks
Today on ChannelFireball I talk about identifying decks that lead on Mountain. You can check it out here.
I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.
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Pauper League Highlights – November 29
The latest Pauper League result only showcased 24 deck lists and of those several subscribed to similar archetypes. So I guess it’s a good thing that this upcoming Monday the Pauper Format Panel will be making an update to the ban list. That doesn’t mean there aren’t decks worth exploring, so let’s get right to it.
A few months ago (or maybe it was last year) a Magic player with Pro Tour Top 8 experienced posted about investing in a Pauper deck that they could invest in owning. They wanted one that was always a reasonable choice, if not the best. I suggested Faeries in part because it has stood the test of time but also because it always gets to pick up whatever new cheap blue cards get printed. Here we see Faeries still chugging along. Snaremaster Sprite might not be the flashiest card but it does fill a role and can help push damage. This build is looking to press that advantage, leaning into cheap narrow countermagic and Mutagenic Growth to both protect its creatures and seal the deal.
Inside Out Combo is a deck that has fallen from the top tier of the format to the fringe but, like Faeries, continues to acquire new options year after year. The idea is to get down and protect a Tireless Tribe and collect enough cards in your hand to get it up to a lethal amount of toughness. Then with Inside Out you can crash in for victory, aided by Wedding Invitation getting you through the door without a scratch. Circular Logic is fantastic here as a cheap (as long as you have Tireless Tribe) way to defend the combo and the kill. This deck was one of the best in the format before Gush was banned but now has to make due with blue’s other card draw and Whiteout. This green uncommon from Ice Age (downshifted in the Magic Online only Masters Edition 3) can easily be pitched to Tireless Tribe and then, provided you have enough Snow-Covered Lands, be brought back for the lethal swing.
I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.
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November 25-26 Pauper Weekend Recap
I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
We’re going to be doing something a little different than usual today, if the chart above was any indication. The November 25 and November 26 continue the trends from the previous weekend – lots of Kuldotha Red in the Top 32. 22 decks overall – more than a third of the Top 32 field – with a fully quarter of both Tops awash in Mountains. The chart is not from this past weekend but rather takes the first four challenges from Lost Caverns of Ixalan season.
Looking at this, things appear to be grim. Fully 25% of the Top 8s went to Kuldotha Red – a deck that had more Top 32 finishes than the next two most popular decks combined. Kuldotha Red is also leading the way in raw numbers of Swiss wins (Win+) and total wins (K-Wins). This comes on the heels of a season where red decks took a pretty significant dive before apparently coming back with a vengeance. But what happens when we pull back the curtains a little bit and look at some more advanced metrics?
For this next portion of the post we are going to be discussing decks with at least three total Top 32 finishes, which hovers around the 2% volume threshold.
Win+ measures a decks Swiss performance and given Kuldotha Red’s sheer presence it should dominate in this area, which it does. Adjusting for volume the deck’s Win+ average is 0.68, which is the best mark of qualified decks. By way of comparison a Win+ average of 1 roughly equates to a Top 16 finish and so it can be inferred that Red’s average finish is trending towards a Top 16. The next best mark, adjusted for volume, is CawGate at 0.38.
K-Wins takes an archetypes total wins and subtracts total losses, including the Top 8. Adjusting for volume Kuldotha Red clocks in at a respectable 1.27 – a solid Top 16 finish that isn’t quite 9th on breakers. It is the third best mark in this regard behind CawGate (1.78) and Black Gardens (1.52). While the data set is small this indicates that once these archetypes reach the final rounds of a tournament, the more flexible decks have done better to this point in this season.
The most obvious explanation of this phenomena is that both Black Gardens and CawGate have access to the sideboard tools to keep Kuldotha Red in check while not giving up too much against the rest of the field, while understanding that Kuldotha Red lines up poorly against these two strategies. Of course this leads to the issue that has been prevalent for much of the past year – that it takes an overabundance of sideboard cards to keep Red in line with the rest of the metagame.
There is one more way to look at the decks in question and that is with their adjusted Metagame Score Above Replacement. This takes an archetype’s performance and, after adjusting for volume, compares it to the remainder of the field. Kuldotha red pulls in with a 0.74 score in this regard which is second best behind CawGate (0.89) and just ahead of Black Gardens (0.69).
What does this all mean? Right now not a whole lot. Red has added another gear to it’s game with Goblin Tomb Raider and the rest of the metagame is playing catch up. Red is still setting the pace but you have to prepare for both the quick death Mountains bring and the slow methodical demise of CawGate and Black Gardens.
I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.
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Pauper League Highlights – November 22
Today I want to take a slightly different approach to the latest league results. I’ve been playing a bit lately and given what I’ve seen in the league I think that Orzhov is very well positioned at the moment. The most recent deck list reveal featured three different Orzhov lists, so let’s examine what they do and where they differ.
Each of these decks are build around a similar core, with all of them running the Glint Hawk/Kor Skyfisher engine with Tithing Blade and other artifacts that generate value. All the builds are also running Thraben Inspector and Guardian of the Guildpact. These suites should look familiar to anyone who has played white midrange in Pauper at any point in the past several years. Together these creatures help to provide the backbone of any white deck that wants to play to the board and slowly win the game through combat. It should be noted that all of these decks also run Omen of the Dead which can provide a steady stream of potential threats with Kor Skyfisher once the game reaches the middle and late stages.
The decks all run Cast Down, which is informative. These decks are less worried about decks that go wide (thanks in part to their blockers) but definitely want to take out the “one big threat” that could end the game. All three builds run some number of board wipes main with the first list doubling up with Pestilence and Drown in Sorrow. These builds have also opted to eschew Chainer’s Edict instead relying on the recursive nature of Tithing Blade to fill the same role.
Finally, all these decks are running at least 21 lands and left Troll of Khazad-dûm on the sidelines. They are mana hungry and cannot afford to be taking turns off to spend resources finding lands. Instead these decks want to hit their land drops on time while advancing their board state. Filling slots with cards that mostly exist to find lands detracts from the main game plan and considering how few of the lands each of these run are actual Swamps it follows that Troll might not be the best inclusion.
What separates these decks from each other are they supplemental engines. One uses Pestilence to lock down the board while another leans on Ephemerate to steamroll value. The final list leans on the Basilisk Gate damage engine for additional flexibility out of the sideboard and a way to close the game out quickly. Two lean on the Monarch or the Initiative while the Gate build avoids it entirely. None of these decks, however, are running Prismatic Strands, which means that they have no real defense of their emblems aside from keeping the board clear.
What does this all mean? These decks are built to survive the early game, coming fully online turn four and beyond. They want to tread water, biding time until they can assert control. Once they have gotten to parity these Orzhov builds want to break the game open with their various engines and slam the door. Each of them is prepared to fight Kuldotha Red on some axis while not giving up entirely against the rest of the metagame. While red might be setting the tone these builds can go toe-to-toe with everything else the leagues have to offer. Cast Down tells us that these decks are aware not every threat costs a single mana and sometimes it is the five drop that’s going to kill you.
When there are several lists in a format that are all trying to do the same thing it can be important to look at how they are similar to understand their core concept. Each of these lists are slightly different in their execution but all of them are trying to do the same thing, albeit with varied components.
I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.
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