Four More Weeks of Lost Caverns of Ixalan

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

We are rapidly approaching the end of Lost Caverns of Ixalan season. Before we travel back to Ravnica for Murders at Karlov Manor there will be over two months of data to examine from the current state of the format. Given that the next set does not look to have the potential to upset the apple cart this information could prove helpful in understanding how to prepare for the weeks ahead. But that must wait for the next series of Challenges to conclude. For today we are going to be looking at the Pauper Challenge metagame for the weekends between January 6-7 and January 27-28. In that span there were 500 players who entered one of the Magic Online Challenges. The chart below tells us how their deck choices broke down (with a 2% the threshold for making cut):

Now to be clear this also includes players who signed up for the tournament but did not play a match, which is a thing you can do apparently. So let’s get one thing out of the way: Galvanic Blast is the defining removal spell in Pauper. This should not be a shock to anyone who has been following Pauper for the past year or so, but it is still interesting to see it presented in such a stark manner. The top two decks, which make up almost a fifth of the Challenge field, both lean on the Scars of Mirrodin burn spell which does a fine job of clearing a path or ending the game. If you add in Grixis Affinity and Boros Synthesizer over a quarter of the Challenge metagame are Galvanic Blast decks.

We see this reflected in the other successful strategies. Black Gardens leans into the Initiative as a way to grow Avenging Hunter out of range while Dimir Faeries presents either too many threats or a 5/5 with Ward 2 as their closer. CawGate has the opportunity to lean on Guardian of the Guildpact to reduce the impact of Blast.

What does this all mean? The prevalence of Galvanic Blast puts significant limits on what kind of creatures can see play. Barring a behind that earns the Sir Mix-a-Lot stamp of approval, creatures need to come with enough value to warrant then dying almost instantly. Alternatively if you can present enough redundant pieces (think Elves or WonderWalls) then it is possible to sidestep the point removal.

But how does this match up to the winner’s metagame?

This chart represents the breakdown of each deck in the Top 32 is it relates to Winner’s Meta Share. Each deck is assigned a score based upon their collective overall performance and collective Swiss performance and this chart displays their share of this value. Kuldotha Red remains the most popular deck in the winner’s meta share but Black Gardens and CawGate overtake Jeskai Glitters. These decks can still “just lose” to the best red draws (as do most decks) but it also appears that there’s enough hate for artifacts that can help keep Affinity down. Make no mistake that Affinity is still a major player in the format but the weight of interaction may be having an impact.

Still, the winner’s meta looks to be largely in line with the format at large. There is something reassuring about this in the sense that what you see in the Challenges at large is representative of what is doing well, proportionally. While some league results have skewed towards red (possibly a byproduct of being in the last weeks of a set release cycle, possibly a result of the deck potentially being a little better than the other options), the Challenge meta overall looks reasonable for a non-rotating format.

How does this shake out when it comes to adjusting for presence? Taking into account Top 32 meta percent as well as Swiss and overall performance, the best deck over the past four weeks was Black Gardens with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.67. This score shows how decks perform against other archetypes, with the average score over the past month coming in at 0.42, so Black Gardens performed that much better than an average deck. Grixis Affinity is next in line with a score of 1.02 with Kuldotha Red coming in third at 0.94. Beyond that CawGate (0.73) and Dimir Terror (0.70) round out the Top 5 archetypes based on aMSAR. It should be noted that four of these five decks are either midrange or control builds.

Taken together the format is defined in many ways by aggressive strategies with reach. The ability to close out games with Galvanic Blast is an animating force in the format. At the same time many top decks have adjusted to be able to handle this line of play to the point where many top performing decks opt for a reactive approach to games and are not just trying to get you dead quickly. Moving into the final week of Lost Caverns of Ixalan and the early days of Murders at Karlov Manor there appears to be a lane where players can get an edge – finding an aggressive deck that goes slightly slower than Red and Glitters while having enough pressure to get in under the controlling decks could prove fruitful.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

January 20-21 Pauper Weekend Recap

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

As excited as I am for Murders at Karlov Manor, those cards have not been released yet. Put another way, we are still working our way through Lost Caverns of Ixalan season. What’s changed since last week? The January 20 and January 21 Challenges saw Dimir Faeries supplant Kuldotha Red as the most popular choice for the Challenges and also featured a notable decline in the raw volume of Black Gardens and Jeskai Glitters. This weekend also saw a rebound in the number of people playing in the tournaments so there were no negative records in our Top 32 results. Consequentially what we see coming out of last weekend could be seen as helping to clarify the format instead of muddying the waters.

Dimir decks proved themselves last weekend. Clocking in at just under 12% of the total meta last weekend, they were responsible for nearly a quarter of all lists run in the Challenges just a few days ago. While the three builds – Control, Faeries, and Tempo – share some cards and have endgames that bear more than a passing resemblance but are nonetheless distinct. All of these decks leverage countermagic and removal to great efficacy, trading one for one against decks that are trying to present threats while having outs to simply have more cards than other slower decks.

So then why then am I talking about Orzhov Midrange?

3 Ancient Den
2 Bojuka Bog
1 Candy Trail
1 Cast Down
1 Dawnbringer Cleric
4 Deadly Dispute
4 Glint Hawk
4 Hopeless Nightmare
3 Ichor Wellspring
4 Kor Skyfisher
2 Lembas
3 Obscura Storefront
2 Omen of the Dead
3 Orzhov Basilica
3 Plains
1 Prismatic Strands
1 Snowfield Sinkhole
2 Snuff Out
1 Suffocating Fumes
3 Swamp
2 Thorn of the Black Rose
4 Thraben Inspector
4 Tithing Blade
1 Troll of Khazad-dûm
1 Vault of Whispers

Sideboard
1 Arashin Cleric
1 Arms of Hadar
1 Cast Down
1 Dawnbringer Cleric
4 Duress
4 Dust to Dust
3 Relic of Progenitus

Czacza went undefeated on Sunday until losing in the finals for a total record of 9-1. Orzhov decks have had an up and down season thus far as they are largely contingent on having the right mix of supplemental threats and answers in order to find their metagame lane. This build is loaded with ways to draw cards in its artifacts but it also has a way to grind down an opponent’s resources in Hopeless Nightmare. White decks are quite adept at rebuying permanents and Nightmare not only pressures cards in hand but also can chip in for damage. Unlike Raven’s Crime Hopeless Nightmare does not cost you a card so any subsequent discards put you ahead instead of at parity. While the above deck does have some inevitability with Omen of the Dead I would like to see another way to turn the corner, especially given the closing speed of other decks in the format.

Orzhov Midrange was not a popular choice on the weekend and so the 1.86 adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement needs to be taken with a healthy dose of salt. Out of the decks with more Top 32 representation Dimir Control led the way with a aMSAR score of 1.4. Jeskai Glitters had the second best score out of the popular decks with a 0.57 aMSAR.

All of this is to say that Pauper continues to exist much as how it has in the wake of the recent ban. Things are largely balanced. Next week is my cyclical eight challenge check in and in the past six events no one archetype has topped 10% of Top 32 volume or winner’s meta volume – instead there are plenty of decks right around the 7% and 8% mark for winner’s meta volume. In that same six event span no deck has topped 10% of total volume. Now this is a relatively small sample size of events, and it will be interesting to see how the post-ban season shakes out, but for now Pauper is looking to be balanced. But that’s only half the equation so I want to know – are you finding the format fun?

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

January 13-14 Pauper Weekend Recap

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

The January 13 and January 14 Challenges provide us with some confounding data. Leading up to the weekend Magic Online was experiencing a significant outage and it is possible that it impacted participation in the Saturday Challenge (40 entrants, 39 participants). The result was a six round event where several 2-4 records made the Top 32. While it is not uncommon to see one or two such records make this threshold, seven such players achieved this feat on Saturday. As a result the data set is pulling from multiple records with a negative score in both Win+ and K-Win. Even if this does muddy the waters a bit it still provides the opportunity for insight. First let’s look at the archetypes as broken down by total entrants.

The top of the metagame, at least as far as people perceive it, remains similar. Kuldotha Red and Jeskai Glitters both apply significant pressure to opposing life totals with low to the ground threats, backing them up with Galvanic Blast. It is not just about the board presence with these decks but also their ability to chew up huge chunks of health of a minuscule mana investment. Black Gardens takes on the role CawGate assumed last week as playing foil to the assertive strategies. We are seeing a format that currently revolves around Galvanic Blast and its ability to not only close out games but also pick off a significant majority of threats that can be presented. If you travel down the popularity chart you will see plenty of decks that have a plethora of tasty targets for the Scars of Mirrodin standout.

And today I want to focus on one of them: Elves.

4 Birchlore Rangers
3 Distant Melody
3 Elvish Mystic
3 Elvish Vanguard
13 Forest
2 Fyndhorn Elves
4 Jaspera Sentinel
4 Lead the Stampede
1 Llanowar Elves
2 Lys Alana Huntmaster
1 Masked Vandal
2 Nettle Sentinel
4 Priest of Titania
4 Quirion Ranger
1 Spell Pierce
4 Timberwatch Elf
1 Wellwisher
4 Winding Way

Sideboard
3 Gleeful Sabotage
1 Gorilla Shaman
2 Hydroblast
2 Masked Vandal
1 Negate
2 Sandstorm
1 Scattershot Archer
1 Valakut Invoker
1 Viridian Longbow
1 Wellwisher

I am not going to sit here and tell you that I thought Elves would be a good choice going into last weekend, because the deck was barely on my radar. The abundance of good board wipes that have entered the format as of late have put a road block in front of the pointy eared horde. When it comes to creature based hypermana decks, Axebane Guardian is more resilient than Priest of Titania. Yet Elves put up two Top 8 finishes on Saturday, including a win. The big difference I see in these builds over the last time Elves was putting up solid numbers is the density of reload spells. Previous wisdom said that Elves could run two thirds of Distant Melody, Lead the Stampede, and Winding Way. The latest successful iterations throw that out the window and instead run 11 of 12 possible copies. This means some redundancy in actual bodies is lost but makes up for it in the potential to completely reload after a spate of removal or board wipes. With six total appearances over the weekend and three total Top 32 finishes, I wouldn’t say Elves is back on the map but it is certainly a deck worth watching moving forward.

When we look at the Top 32 data, the three decks that led the way from raw volume also did the same once they got past the cutoff. But when we look at the winner’s meta volume things look stark: Black Gardens tops the field at 14.99% with Kuldotha Red not far behind at 13.58%. Jeskai Glitters, hamstrung by several sub-500 finishes, only took down 1.86% of the winner’s metagame volume. I would not read too much into this low number as it is a byproduct of the small field on Saturday but it might indicate that sideboards are adjusting to the deck’s position in the meta. Elves, our featured deck of the day, came in with a healthy 11.43% of the winner’s meta. Looking at these decks through adjusted Meta Score Above replacement we get the following:

  • Elves: 1.68
  • Black Gardens: 1.58
  • Dimir Terror: 0.96
  • Kuldotha Red: 0.8
  • Grixis Affinity: 0.43

Jeskai Glitters had a aMSAR score of -0.62, meaning it performed worse than an average Top 32 deck.

For next week I would be keen on trying to make Sulfurous Blast work. This sweeper has the advantage of being able to hit three toughness creatures while also pressuring life totals. The recent spate of Red Tron decks might be able to find a home for this card and given the way the field looks this more assertive big mana deck could prove to be a strong meta call.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

January 6-7 Pauper Weekend Recap

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

Let’s talk about Jeskai Glitters. After the first four weeks of the post-ban metagame the aggressive Affinity strategy, which takes the All That Glitters shell and trades stack interaction for Galvanic Blast, the subarchertype clocked in with 5.6% of the total challenge metagame and 6.81% of the winner’s metagame. Last weekend both the Saturday and Sunday Challenge fired and Jeskai Glitters was 12.3% of the overall metagame and 8.29% of the winner’s meta.

4 All That Glitters
4 Ancient Den
4 Ardent Recruit
4 Experimental Synthesizer
4 Frogmite
4 Galvanic Blast
4 Gingerbrute
4 Glint Hawk
4 Great Furnace
4 Myr Enforcer
2 Razortide Bridge
2 Reckless Impulse
2 Rustvale Bridge
1 Seat of the Synod
3 Silverbluff Bridge
4 Springleaf Drum
4 Thoughtcast
2 Wrenn's Resolve

Sideboard
4 Dispel
2 End the Festivities
4 Pyroblast
3 Seal of Fire
2 Tectonic Hazard

I’m not going to bury the lead – Jeskai Glitters did not have the best weekend. Looking at adjusted meta score above replacement it finished outside the Top 5 with an aMSAR of 0.50. Yet these decks are looking to set the pace of the metagame for the immediate future as they provide a quick clock that can win from nowhere. Unlike the threats Kuldotha Red, Jeskai Glitters has options that are resilient to the most commonly played sweepers in the format. The ability to “just win” cannot be understated and was enough to convince 16 players to pick the cards up for the weekend. Still the deck fell short. So what happened?

Despite the raw strength Jeskai Glitters, like many aggressive decks, have some serious shortcomings in Pauper. Looking at the raw volume chart above CawGate, Black Gardens, Dimir Faeries, Grixis Affinity, and Izzet Control can all be classified as control strategies in the metagame while Kuldotha Red and the Glitters variants occupy the assertive roles. The Terror variants are more mutable but tend to play towards a tempo game. All of this is to say that as strong as decks that play to the board can be there is power in keeping those threats off the board, either through removal, counters, or bounce. When 47.1% of the discrete metagame can take on the control role at a given time then the potential for answers to line up well with threats can make it difficult to get over the line for 20 damage.

The Top 32 metagame tells a similar story. While the beatdown decks are far from absent the top of the winner’s meta is stacked to the brim with interactive strategies. I have often said the best way to get ahead in Pauper is to have the correct removal for a given aggressive strategy but that means that picking the correct threats to dodge answers matters just as much. In Pauper that means selecting threats that have break points at 3 toughness (to dodge sweepers) and 4 toughness (to dodge Lightning Bolt). Jeskai Glitters has Myr Enforcer which checks all these boxes and can lean on other three toughness threats to round things out.

As for aMSAR, the week shook out with CawGate as the very best with an astonishing score of 3.4. Next up was Black Gardens with 1.11 followed closely by Izzet Contol with 1.1. Grixis Affinity is next up with 0.88 with Blue Terror rounding out the top 5 with 0.72. In other words, Jeskai Glitters might not have been the best deck on the weekend but people absolutely came prepared to defend their life total. Whether this was a result of Kuldotha Red remaining a top contender or chatter around the Jeskai deck running up to the Challenges, folks had their shields up and it paid off.

Looking ahead I would be hesitant to go too deep on Jeskai Affinity as I expect more copies of Cast into the Fire as a way to fight against the various low to the ground threats and high impact artifacts. No matter what I would want to find a way to get around CawGate while also not losing a step to the other beat down strategies.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Four Weeks Later – Pauper After the Monastery Swiftspear Ban

Happy 2024 everyone!

After some time away from writing I am back in the saddle (if you consider this chair at my kitchen table a saddle) and ready to dive back into Pauper. The format has had more than a month to adjust to the absence of Monastery Swiftspear and things are starting to come into focus. We aren’t getting as clear a picture as we normally would, at least about the top of the metagame as the last two Sunday Challenges failed to fire. I would hesitate to read too much into this fact as those events fell on Christmas Eve (or Christmas Eve Day) and New Year’s Eve (or the associated day) and well, people may have had more important (and dare I say fun?) things to do with their time.

But there has been another (exceedingly welcome) update: Daybreak Games, the outfit that currently manages Magic Online has started sharing every decklist from the challenges, not just the Top 32. This is awesome as it provides a more complete picture of what is going on every weekend. That being said it did present me with a conundrum as the data I historically collect and present has been based on the Top 32 data. With access to records I could create a more robust image of the metagame but while doable it would require more time than I currently can dedicate to this endeavor. But the data is still important so here is where I landed: My usual Top 32 analysis will continue as it has for the past several years but it will now be provided with the context of the entire Challenge metagame. This will provide a more complete picture, including how well archetypes are doing with regards to breaking through to the so-called winner’s metagame.

With that out of the way, it’s time for this preamble once more: I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

Here is what the Pauper Challenge metagame looks like over the past six Challenge events on Magic Online. The cutoff for having an archetype listed outside of Other is ~2% raw volume (minimum 7 appearances) and there are 34 strategies that fail to meet this threshold.

From a raw volume standpoint the format looks to be in a good place with two different aggressive strategies topping 10% of the aggregate meta. A board control deck – Black Gardens – comes in at 10%, while two blue tempo/control decks in Terror and Dimir Faeries round out the top 5. From a macro level the format is looking to be in a good spot.

So what happens when you look at just the Top 32 metagame? Here the Top 5 decks break down like this with regards to volume (or presence):

  • Glitter Affinity – 11.89%
  • Blue Terror – 10.94%
  • Kuldotha Red – 9.9%
  • Black Gardens – 8.33%
  • Dimir Faeries – 7.29%

Glitter Affinity remains the top deck in the Top 32 isolated meta by volume, out performing its total presence which indicates the deck is a solid choice. Blue Terror’s Top 32 rate is over 2% better than the Challenge at large which is not a surprise given the strength of the cards involved. Kuldotha Red’s share is largely in line with how often it gets played. Dimir Faeries steps it up as well while Black Gardens takes a decent step backwards. Overall the story here is that being assertive in some capacity remains a powerful option in Pauper if you want to make it to the Top 32 of a Challenge. Gardens and Faeries are more reactive in nature while the other three big players have a more proactive gameplan.

How about winner’s meta share? How do these decks stack up?

  • Kuldotha Red – 11.19%
  • Glitter Affinity – 10.27%
  • Blue Terror – 9.17%
  • Black Gardens – 8.61%
  • Jeskai Glitters – 6.81%

What about Dimir Faeries? It comes in at seventh place with 5.59% of the winner’s meta share, coming in behind CawGate (6.31%). The strength of Kuldotha Red here and the addition of Jeskai Glitters (which runs Galvanic Blast) points at a format that rewards getting ahead early and shutting the door with cheap burn. How do things look once we take into account adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement – a metric that measures relative strength of archetypes?

  • Kuldotha Red – 1.21
  • CawGate – 0.87
  • Glitter Affinity – 0.62
  • Black Gardens – 0.58
  • Blue Terror – 0.45

With Jeskai Glitters just behind at 0.42. Dimir Faeries? That clocks in below average with an aMSAR of -0.03. Taken all together it sure looks like Kuldotha Red is the best deck in the format with a strong conversion rate to the Top 32 and an increasingly impressive position the higher up the standings you travel. We can also see the power of the archetype in the slow and steady rise of CawGate, a deck with a strong matchup against Kuldotha Red, as we get closer to the elimination rounds. Yet it is not the overwhelming force it was previously with other strategies remaining competitive.

What does this mean moving into the next stage of the meta? A dedicated control deck that does not account for starting the game at effectively 16 life is not going to succeed. With so many decks running Galvanic Blast and other burn spells to close things out having a plan to survive remains important. The absence of Monastery Swiftspear gives decks a little more time to develop their defenses before facing down lethal. I remain bullish on white midrange but Murmuring Mystic is a messed up Magic card and having that card in a control deck outside Jeskai Ephemerate seems like a great day to absorb some damage.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

The Post Ban Pauper Metagame

Today on ChannelFireball I do a slightly deeper dive on the post-ban metagame. You can check out the article here.

Given that we now get every decklist, I will continue to focus on the Top 32 (or winner’s) metagame with regards to my weekly posts but will also be providing it in the context of what those numbers mean given a deck’s total presence in the Challenge meta.

December 9-10 Pauper Weekend Recap

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

December 9 and December 10 Pauper Challenge Top 32 Metagame

Pauper has officially entered the post-Monastery Swiftspear era. This weekend provided our first real glimpse at the format without the hugely impactful one drop. While this is a small sample size to be sure it does provide some actionable information. Let’s get to two of my big takeaways from week one.

First, I think it is fair to say the format has slowed down some. Part of the stated intent of the Monastery Swiftspear ban was to give the format some time to breathe and develop. A turn one Swiftspear would set the tone of the entire game and force slower decks into an extremely defensive posture and could often leverage this early advantage to get over the finish line in the middle and latter stages of the game. A number of decks that have been forced to the fringes of the competitive metagame made a small comeback this week including Gruul Ramp and the combo version of WonderWalls (which tookdown the Sunday Challenge with a 10-0 run). Both Dimir and Izzet Control, which have been present but depressed in the meta, saw a small boost in overall numbers.

Why do I say some? Glitter Affinity was the most popular archetype over the weekend with 10 total appearances in the Top 32 and it did take down the Saturday Challenge. Black Gardens – a standout in the sea of red – remained a strong option with it’s board control plan. In other words, there is still a reason to be aggressive and a reason to defend against the early beatdown. As the meta continues to develop if it trends more towards the middle and less towards the extremes (as it did last weekend) then I think things are in a good place.

The second item to focus on is the presence of red. With six appearances across three archetypes it appears that players are still trying to figure out what these decks should look like moving forward. One thing to note is that the red “draw” spells, which drew the ire of some commenters, are not automatic inclusions anymore. Instead many of these decks are leaning more on Experimental Synthesizer for reloading and instead are trying to play off the top. The value of Reckless Impulse and Wrenn’s Resolve appear to be tied to their ability to convert to immediate damage (which is why they continue to see play in Burn builds). Without the pressure of Swiftspear converting these investments into potential damage immediately it makes sense that they have dropped off some. Again if this trend continues it will bode well for future iterations of red “draw” as additive to the format instead of taking something away from game play.

Looking ahead to next week I would want to be on an Orzhov build. I have been very bullish on the Kor Skyfisher builds as they have the ability to play true midrange, pivoting from aggro to control as the situation calls while not giving up on card flow. I am less keen on the Ephemerate builds at the moment but if one crops up that has a more assertive stance in the midgame I could be convinced.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

Pauper League Highlights – December 6

So did you hear that Monastery Swiftspear got banned?

Anyway, the most recent Pauper League results include a mix of decks from before the recent format update and after and as such I wanted to take a look at some of the decks that captured my attention in this new metagame.

3 Krark-Clan Shaman
4 Myr Enforcer
4 Ancient Den
3 Vault of Whispers
4 Great Furnace
4 Kor Skyfisher
4 Glint Hawk
2 Galvanic Blast
2 Ichor Wellspring
3 Thraben Inspector
4 All That Glitters
3 Drossforge Bridge
3 Goldmire Bridge
3 Rustvale Bridge
4 Deadly Dispute
2 Blood Fountain
4 Experimental Synthesizer
4 Tithing Blade

Sideboard
1 Krark-Clan Shaman
2 Nihil Spellbomb
4 Red Elemental Blast
1 Makeshift Munitions
1 Navigator's Compass
4 Revoke Existence
2 Breath Weapon

This mash up of Mardu Synthesizer and Glitter Affinity feels like a decent take on a slower aggressive deck in the new landscape. This build takes some of the more assertive elements of Boros Synthesizer and pairs them with All That Glitters for a chance to pile on the damage. I think there’s a reasonable argument to be made for Fanatical Offering here as a way to increase the size of your threats.

2 Swamp
1 Agony Warp
4 Snuff Out
1 Bojuka Bog
3 Ponder
1 Drown in Sorrow
4 Dark Ritual
4 Brainstorm
9 Island
2 Ash Barrens
4 Thorn of the Black Rose
2 Cast Down
3 Murmuring Mystic
4 Augur of Bolas
1 Suffocating Fumes
4 Counterspell
2 Spell Pierce
4 Contaminated Aquifer
1 Chainer's Edict
4 Lorien Revealed

Sideboard
3 Relic of Progenitus
3 Blue Elemental Blast
2 Drown in Sorrow
2 Dispel
4 Hydroblast
1 Chainer's Edict

Dimir Scam is what happens when you believe you need to resolve your haymakers as quickly as possible and ride them to victory. In a world where you are facing intense pressure starting on turn one these strategies make some more sense since the advantage the four drops generate is massive. However if the format slows down at all these decks take on a much greater risk.

4 Vault of Whispers
1 Rakdos Carnarium
4 Alms of the Vein
14 Swamp
4 Defile
4 Cauldron Familiar
4 Serrated Scorpion
2 Suffocating Fumes
4 Deadly Dispute
4 Vampire's Kiss
4 Okiba Reckoner Raid
3 Reckoner's Bargain
4 Lembas
4 Tithing Blade

Sideboard
4 Duress
3 Nihil Spellbomb
4 Drown in Sorrow
4 Tyrant's Choice

These so called “Black Burn” decks crop up from time time to time and this one seems focused on having some element of board control while also leaning into the inevitability of Lembas and Cauldron Familiar. I am normally wary about these strategies but considering that this one was piloted to a trophy by Beicodegeia it probably deserves to be explored as a viable option.

2 Prismatic Strands
1 Silhana Ledgewalker
2 Guardian of the Guildpact
3 Kor Skyfisher
3 Abundant Growth
4 Gatecreeper Vine
3 Saruli Gatekeepers
3 Thraben Inspector
4 Sacred Cat
4 Cast Down
1 Gingerbrute
1 Omen of the Dead
1 Suffocating Fumes
1 Plains
3 Forest
2 Dawnbringer Cleric
4 Deadly Dispute
4 Basilisk Gate
2 Black Dragon Gate
4 Citadel Gate
2 Heap Gate
4 Manor Gate
2 Fanatical Offering

Sideboard
2 Crimson Acolyte
2 Standard Bearer
3 Dust to Dust
3 Relic of Progenitus
4 Duress
1 Arms of Hadar

Non-CawGate Basilisk Gate decks have fallen on hard times. This build is reminiscent of the old Abzan and Naya Gates lists from earlier this year. One thing I really like about this build is the addition of Fanatical Offering as additional ways to dig towards Basilisk Gate while also growing your unsolvable threats.

3 Seal of Fire
12 Mountain
4 Great Furnace
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Kuldotha Rebirth
1 Goblin Grenade
3 Mutagenic Growth
4 Implement of Combustion
4 Voldaren Epicure
4 Experimental Synthesizer
4 Goblin Blast-Runner
1 The Autonomous Furnace
4 Chain Lightning
4 Goblin Tomb Raider

Sideboard
3 Raze
1 Flaring Pain
4 Pyroblast
2 Electrickery
3 Smash to Smithereens
2 End the Festivities

What? You thought red was dead? This seems like a much more reasonable red deck in the sense that while it is still clearly very good it has far more pinch points. The absence of Swiftspear makes toughness based removal significantly better which also informs some of the other choices in this deck. That being said I would rather have this version of red running around than one that gets to add an ever-growing threat to the mix.

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December 2-3 Pauper Weekend Recap

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

Pauper is not a time capsule.

I want you to keep that in mind for today’s post. In case you have not yet heard, Monastery Swiftspear has been banned in Pauper. You can read the reasoning behind this update (and some of the other changes that were considered) in this post authored by Gavin Verhey on behalf of the Pauper Format Panel. If you want some insight into my thoughts on the format moving forward you can read that here.

During the tenure of its legality Monastery Swiftspear had a massive impact on Pauper. At a gameplay level it helped to polarize the metagame, encouraging decks to either win quickly or drag the game out through any means necessary to ensure survival. As more options were added to the available card pool, Swiftspear decks went from defining the metagame to warping the format around their inclusion. Looking at this phenomena at a format level, it was one of the first times in recent memory that an aggressive deck was one of the top strategies available in Pauper.

Pauper is not a time capsule. At various points the best deck in the format has been a control deck, a midrange deck, or a combo deck. An aggressive deck being a top tier strategy might be different but in it of itself is not anathema. When any deck warps the format around it that is when things warrant attention.

In the wake of the announcement there were more than a few voices who expressed discontent. The criticism was that this ban did not go after the correct card. Instead many people discussed Kuldotha Rebirth and the duo of Reckless Impulse and Wrenn’s Resolve. The central concept of these arguments seemed to boil down to “red should not have card draw”. While Rebirth enabled red to go wide (something it has always been able to do), the recent strength of red pushed this Scars of Mirrodin card to another level. Thanks to the low cost of powerful red spells these cards were essentially too good for Pauper and should be banned to bring red back to the pack.

Is Wrenn’s Resolve that much better than Of One Mind?

Pauper is not a time capsule. Red has had access to this style of card advantage for nearly a decade even if it is a relatively recent addition to Pauper. As these cards will continue to see print red will continue to have new choices to make in deck construction and the format will have to adapt to these new play patterns. That being said if one of these spells ever approaches the egregiousness of Treasure Cruise then something might have to give.

One of the biggest complaints of Pauper before the advent of the Pauper Format Panel was that it could stay stagnant for too long; that the metagame did not change quickly enough if at all. Recent years have given other strategies time in the spotlight even as old standbys continue to see heavy play and often perform rather well. As I have said before, Pauper has shifted from a midrange format to, at least for now, one where being assertive matters as well. Pining for the game play of your favorite era is a fine exercise but Pauper’s future cannot be shackled to its past.

Where does that leave things today? Aggressive decks, whether they are red or powered by Affinity remain viable. Time will tell if the absence of Swiftspear opens up the pool of effective removal that can help blunt assaults in the earliest turns of a game. Slower decks are more viable but by how much remains to be seen. And as Gavin said yesterday, if things are not working the Pauper Format Panel is willing to take further action.

For now we are entering a different format. Kuldotha Red was far and away the best deck in Pauper during Lost Caverns of Ixalan season with an adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 0.95 (the next best deck was CawGate at 0.59). Red is not going anywhere but I don’t expect it to be this far ahead of the field. Instead it is likely to come back to the pack. I think CawGate and Black Gardens (aMSAR of 0.49) are going to be a step behind, at least early on, as they adjust to a world without Swiftspear. White midrange, whether Boros or Orzhov, likely have an edge in the early going by being chock full of generically good cards. In other words, you better have a plan for Ephemerate strategies in week one.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!