I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
Pauper has officially entered the post-Monastery Swiftspear era. This weekend provided our first real glimpse at the format without the hugely impactful one drop. While this is a small sample size to be sure it does provide some actionable information. Let’s get to two of my big takeaways from week one.
First, I think it is fair to say the format has slowed down some. Part of the stated intent of the Monastery Swiftspear ban was to give the format some time to breathe and develop. A turn one Swiftspear would set the tone of the entire game and force slower decks into an extremely defensive posture and could often leverage this early advantage to get over the finish line in the middle and latter stages of the game. A number of decks that have been forced to the fringes of the competitive metagame made a small comeback this week including Gruul Ramp and the combo version of WonderWalls (which tookdown the Sunday Challenge with a 10-0 run). Both Dimir and Izzet Control, which have been present but depressed in the meta, saw a small boost in overall numbers.
Why do I say some? Glitter Affinity was the most popular archetype over the weekend with 10 total appearances in the Top 32 and it did take down the Saturday Challenge. Black Gardens – a standout in the sea of red – remained a strong option with it’s board control plan. In other words, there is still a reason to be aggressive and a reason to defend against the early beatdown. As the meta continues to develop if it trends more towards the middle and less towards the extremes (as it did last weekend) then I think things are in a good place.
The second item to focus on is the presence of red. With six appearances across three archetypes it appears that players are still trying to figure out what these decks should look like moving forward. One thing to note is that the red “draw” spells, which drew the ire of some commenters, are not automatic inclusions anymore. Instead many of these decks are leaning more on Experimental Synthesizer for reloading and instead are trying to play off the top. The value of Reckless Impulse and Wrenn’s Resolve appear to be tied to their ability to convert to immediate damage (which is why they continue to see play in Burn builds). Without the pressure of Swiftspear converting these investments into potential damage immediately it makes sense that they have dropped off some. Again if this trend continues it will bode well for future iterations of red “draw” as additive to the format instead of taking something away from game play.
Looking ahead to next week I would want to be on an Orzhov build. I have been very bullish on the Kor Skyfisher builds as they have the ability to play true midrange, pivoting from aggro to control as the situation calls while not giving up on card flow. I am less keen on the Ephemerate builds at the moment but if one crops up that has a more assertive stance in the midgame I could be convinced.
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