NerdtotheCore

Alternative Title: Alex Prepares for Hate Mail

I didn’t write a weekend check in for this week. I wanted to, I even completed the spreadsheet entry for the Challenges that took place on October 3 and October 4. But I didn’t feel like writing a summary, mostly because I have been playing a lot of Pauper. And to be honest: I’m not enjoying it a ton right now.

The incentives in Pauper are out of whack and right now the majority of games come down to a slog of card economy. The power of Monarch and Tron mean that prolonging the game and simply exhausting your opponent’s resources (and potentially their will to play). The other option is to be as aggressive as possible and try to end the game in the first five turns. There is a scrum in the middle, but those skirmishes tend to take place between decks that are trying to fight for long game advantages. None of this is new and Pauper has been trending this way since the release of Modern Masters 2017. (Note: I originally got the release wrong, these cards came in 2017, not 2015)

Modern Masters 2017 saw a number of key additions to Pauper. It gave the format Augur of Bolas, Burning-Tree Emissary, and Dinrova Horror. It’s release also coincided with the addition of Palace Sentinels and Thorn of the Black Rose to the Magic Online pool of available cards. You will be hard pressed to find a Pauper regular who can point to a more impactful release than that one. Shortly after the set hit, Stompy rose to prominence on the back of Burning-Tree Emissary turns only to be unseated by Boros Monarch leveraging free cards and Prismatic Strands. Not too long after, Dinrova Horror endgame Tron decks came into being. Along the way a bevy of blue cards got banned (Cloud of Faeries, Daze, Gitaxian Probe, Gush, and Mystic Sanctuary). These bans were needed to keep blue in check (and blue is doing just fine), but now Pauper is locked in a battle between an early knock out and a 12-round slog.

The incentives in Pauper are broken. The addition of Burning-Tree Emissary to the format made one-for-one removal a risky proposition. Your Lightning Bolt is very good at handling one threat but doesn’t do nearly as well when it trades with half of your opponent’s second turn. Stompy was dominant early in the Modern Masters 2017 on the back of incredibly strong BTE turns. That is until Boros players figured out how Palace Sentinels worked with Prismatic Strands. Now midrange decks had a way to stay alive when faced with pressure while also drawing into more removal. It is a lot easier to clear a board when you’re drawing two cards a turn.

This was a major inflection point. As running answers became less important and more decks were relying on damage prevention effects (and as these effects became better) it became easier to survive until simply drew enough answers or ended the game. (Note: the next section is edited to update for the correct timeline of events)Pulse of Murasa came in 2016 and made pushed for a major shift in Tron decks.. Until that point, Tron decks were largely focused on resolving large threats early and ending the game with Rolling Thunder or Ulamog’s Crusher. In order to survive, the deck ran Expedition Map, Chromatic Star, and Chromatic Sphere in concert with Fangren Marauder. Pulse of Murasa gave Tron a way to buyback dead Mulldrifters while also bolstering a life total. Mnemonic Wall getting back Pulse was backbreaking and bought tons of time. These Tron decks eventually gave way to builds that added Ghostly Flicker and the modern Flicker Tron decks were born. They only got better with the addition of Ephemerate and basically, every set since.

Pauper games currently trend in one of two directions: you’re dead before you can do anything or games drag on for several turns and the individual who drew more cards wins. While there are fun and interesting moments in these games, the games themselves (at least to me and surprisingly, several other regular players) are not fun. I suppose it’s a testament to how much we all love the format that we all continue to play it despite things being kinda meh.

If I had to look at a root cause, it would have to be things that are too good on rate. Current card design (January 2019-September 2020) seems to be pushing how much a single card can be worth. We are seeing this in other formats but the philosophy has trickled down to Pauper. Burning-Tree Emissary is “free”; Monarch provides free cards; Tron makes mana trivial. I am not sure the best way to make Pauper more enjoyable for more people, but here is where I would start:

• Ban Tron: At this point there is no reason these cards should continue to be legal as they’ve proven time and time again to be too good. Go ahead an unban Expedition Map while you’re at it.
• Ban Monarch: A Monarch is a cool mechanic but in reality a free card every turn is too good in a two player format.
• Ban Burning-Tree Emissary: If you remove late game incentives, you have to also remove draws that overrun control decks with ease and removing BTE takes some pressure off slower decks.
• Ban Ephemerate: Ephemerate is basically the Monarch when paired with Mnemonic Wall or Archaeomancer except it’s also a tutor; removing Monarch but leaving this engine will create the same problems.

These are drastic steps and will cause a massive change in the format. More than that, these will render several cards unplayable and for players who play tabletop, that is a real cost. That being said I think these changes can open up Pauper. I do not think these change the incentives but rather unlock additional things to play towards.

I don’t think unbanning cards (aside from Expedition Map) is the way to go. Adding powerful options back to the format don’t open up new pillars but rather rebuild old ones. The changes proposed above are just one set of options and I’d like to hear what other regulars have to say.

The seventh episode of Constructed Resources discussed how to beat control decks. I encourage you all to give it a listen as it provides valuable insight and, being real, it’s on a website where I write. In the episode, Luis Scott-Vargas and Andrew Baeckstrom discuss methods for disrupting and defeating control decks. Given that the current best deck in Pauper falls into this camp, I think it’s important to take a look at their methods and see how they apply to attacking Flicker Tron. 

Spoiler alert: they don’t translate especially well. 

Here are the four points summarized:

1. Be faster than the control deck
2. Present an unsolvable threat or an unexpected angle of attack
3. Overload their mana on a given turn 
4. Present a card that “must be dealt with” 

These points tend to hold true when looking at the wider Magic ecosystem. While not every deck will be able to tick every box, being able to do one or two of these is often enough to at least pressure a control deck. I often talk about trying to put a control deck on the defense – this is shorthand for forcing them to use their mana inefficiently. In fact, breaking these points down the best way to attack a control deck is to be more efficient in mana use either by lowering your curve or rendering their spells less potent.

Be faster than a control deck

Traditionally control decks take the first few turns to set up their mid and late game. Playing two-power one drops is a better use of mana early and can force the control deck to delay their set up in order to handle threats. 

Present an unsolvable threat or an unexpected angle of attack

How good is Lightning Bolt against Slippery Bogle? What about Cast Down and Guardian of the Guildpact? While the two spells listed are cheap they do nothing against the intended target, rendering the mana spent mana wasted. You can even sidestep creatures entirely and go for a Curse of the Bloody Tome or Pestilence plan.

Overload their mana on a given turn

A tale as old as time. If your threats are cheaper than their answers you will have an easier time resolving a spell. At the end of the exchange you should have a board presence staring down their depleted resources.

Present a card that “must be dealt with”

More of a corollary to the second point but this pertains more to high powered formats. The cards LSV and BK describe in the episode are Planeswalkers as they have a profound effect on how the game plays out. In Pauper, this can be something like a Thorn of the Black Rose, a Bonder’s Ornament, or my personal favorite – Dimir Guildmage.

Before going further, I think it’s important to break down the many styles of control decks that Tron encompasses. Part of the deck’s dominance is due to how much it can pack into its 75.

Big Mana

The Tron mana engine lends itself to a big mana strategy. Tron cares less about mana efficiency than about the raw power of its cards. Thanks to its abundant resources Tron has access to effects that are off limits to decks that play fair. More than that, it can cast the curve toppers of other decks earlier in the game. So where a “fair” deck has to wait until turn four to Mulldrifter and Ephemerate, Tron can do this a full turn earlier. 

Mnemonic Wall

There is a subset of control decks in Pauper that lean on the Ghostly Flicker engine to generate a persistent advantage. Before the advent of Ephemerate and Flicker Tron one could argue that the Chittering Rats lock was the go to version in this camp, despite not running Wall. Dimir Flicker played a “fair” midrange-control game that would eventually assemble its lock. It could stumble in the early game and had far more pinch points than Tron.

Teachings Control

Mystical Teachings is a powerful tutor that is limited by its mana cost. Teachings decks can run high variance-high impact cards since the deck can simply find the right tool for the job when the need arises. Teaching decks are among the most traditional control decks in Pauper in that they are vulnerable to each of the four points presented in Constructed Resources.

Tron is each of these decks layered on top of one another. In doing so, Tron has managed to cover a control deck’s traditional weaknesses to create a metagame monster. 

Be faster than a control deck

It is incredibly hard to be faster than Tron. The very best aggressive decks in Pauper are turn four kill decks with an outside shot at killing turn three. By turn four it is highly likely that Tron has established the defenses necessary to blunt assaults. Whether that is Moment’s Peace, Stonehorn Dignitary, or Weather the Storm, it is incredibly hard to “go under” Tron on a temporal scale. The banning of Expedition Map did not slow Tron down as intended. Rather, Tron shifted to Crop Rotation which gave Tron outs to be even faster at assembling its mana engine.

Present an unsolvable threat or an unexpected angle of attack

Nothing really fits here. Yes, you can try to resolve a Pestilence or a Curse of the Bloody Tome or several Fireblasts. But as stated, Tron can cast Weather the Storm and undo a ton of damage. Tron can also run Dinrova Horror and handle any permanent. Even a Slippery Bogle is vulnerable, or rather that Ancestral Mask it’s wearing is a prime target.

Overload their mana on a given turn

I mean…technically it’s possible. Technically you can overload Tron’s mana early but once the engine comes online it is nigh impossible to break it up. It is a fool’s errand to try and be more mana efficient than Tron and even if you exhaust their resources, they are only a few turns away from reloading on key cards thanks to Mnemonic Wall and Ephemerate.

Let’s take another look at the theory of overloading Tron’s mana. A “fair” blue deck wants to win stack battles in post-board games. They decide that Dispel is their best option given a limited number of sideboard slots. The Tron deck determines their best option for additional stack control is Prohibit. Both cards cost one land in their respective decks but Prohibit is far more flexible.

What happens if the blue deck decides it wants to run Prohibit as well? It’s going to lose on mana efficiency there as well. Kicked, Prohibit will cost a traditional blue deck at best four land drops (since bounce lands take up two land drops regardless). Tron can kick a Prohibit on two land drops. 

It also is difficult to force Tron to overextend their resources. Even if you are able to empty the Tron player’s hand, the nature of Mnemonic Wall and Ephemerate make it trivial to reload. Access to Wall, a Flicker, and mana means that a single Dispel or Prohibit could win an entire counter war. 

Note: One of my Patron’s, Jacob, who plays a ton of Azorius Familiars, has pointed out that it is possible to overload Tron’s discrete mana. While true, Tron can sidestep this with Ghostly Flicker on Prophetic Prism.

Present a card that “must be dealt with”

Let’s be real: there is no card in Pauper that Tron views as a “must answer”, not in the way described in the episode. Rather, Tron faces down inconveniences and annoyances.

Earlier I described beating a control deck as trying to force them to spend their resources in an inefficient manner. The reality is that there is no way to do this to Tron. The deck can reuse spent resources with ease and rarely has to worry about running out of mana. It is a metagame monster.