NerdtotheCore

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

Hello again everyone! After a week where my real job took precedence I am back (without a vengeance, I might add)! Rather than go over the individual events I want to take a look at the bigger picture and examine the first four weeks of Commander Masters season. Wilds of Eldraine is right around the corner and that set, while interesting, lacks the punch of the last release. In other words, I would expect the impact of Commander Masters to reverberate for quite some time. This is not meant to be a knock on Wilds, as two of the set’s core mechanics – Bargain and Roles – play right into Pauper play patterns thanks to the way they interact with extra material.

Enough about the not-too-distant future, let’s talk about the now. This analysis is going to focus on the adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement. Roughly speaking this measures how much better an archetype is than an “average” Top 32 finishing deck. The higher the number, the greater the distance from the mean performance. Taken in conjunction with other measures, including Top 8 finishes, we can get an idea of the landscape at the top of the metagame.

There is one final thing of note before I begin: this is the first time during one of these check-ins that not a single archetype tops 10% of the Top 32 metagame in raw volume. The most popular deck (Kuldotha Red) pulls in at 9.38%. There are three other decks with between 8% and 9%, and another three with volume in the 7% range. While this only takes into account a four week span it is a huge step towards a “flattening” at the top of the metagame – something that Pauper has been striving towards for quite some time.

Blue Terror is just that – a terror. The fifth most popular deck (7.81%) it has eight Top 8 finishes, including two wins. It averages a Top 16 finish and when looking at winner’s meta volume sees a jump to 9.37%. Blue Terror is also leading the pack in aMSAR with 1.19. The deck takes the aggressive side of Delver decks of yore while adding large threats like Cryptic Serpent and Tolarian Terror. Churning through the library with cantrips, Terror also plays some of the best countermagic available in Pauper while shaving on lands thanks to Lórien Revealed. The cycle of basic landcyclers from Tales of Middle Earth have completely changed the way mana bases are constructed as they act as land drops early and high impact spells late. Blue Terror is so consistent in part due to its ability to make every land drop while using sculpting to further its game plan.

There is little to be written about Kuldotha Red that has not already been recorded in the annals of history. The best red deck Pauper has likely seen, Kuldotha Red is the most popular archetype thus far this season. It’s winner’s volume ticks up to 10.34% and it has seven total Top 8 finishes. It also lags behind Terror with an aMSAR of 1.16. Not much has changed with Kuldotha Red in practice even if certain builds have started to develop. Some players prefer Lotus Petal and Mutagenic Growth while others have leaned into Human typal with Burning-Tree Emissary and Rally at the Hornburg. Regardless, Kuldotha continues to be able to apply pressure early and often, putting a real clock on the Pauper meta.

Add white to the mix and you end up with Boros Synthesizer. The deck came on strong with several Top 8 finishes early but has trailed off as of late. Boros Synth has taken down eight Top 8 slots (with a win) with 7.42% of the total Top 32 volume. It’s winner’s meta volume is a respectable 8.82% and it’s aMSAR weighs in at a respectable 0.97. Boros takes the burn of red and pairs it with the card flow of Glint Hawk/Kor Skyfisher with Experimental Synthesizer and other artifacts of that variety. Seeker of the Way and Foundry Helix have also shown up as ways to survive against other aggressive strategies. Boros Synth is less consistent in its overall performance than some other decks, often cycling between good weeks and bad depending on what else shows up in a given tournament.

CawGate rounds out the Top 4 decks of the season thus far with six Top 8s and 8.2% of the total metagame volume. With a winner’s volume of 9.05% and an aMSAR of 0.94, it is not that far behind Boros Synthesizer and could easily overtake it before the season closes out. CawGate has a powerful core strategy and is able to supplement it with metagame specific bullets such as Fire//Ice or Cast into the Fire. The resilient nature of its win condition – namely any creature enhanced by Basilisk Gate – makes it dangerous in the late game provided it can survive that long. If the deck has any weakness it is that it has to spend time developing its mana while many of the other top strategies can sidestep this barrier.

The last deck I want to focus on today is the fifth best strategy of the season: Glitter Affinity. In the same number of appearances as Boros Synthesizer it has four Top 8s but two wins. It’s adjusted volume comes in at 8.41% and it holds an aMSAR score of 0.88. Glitter Affinity is still an archetype in progress, with some opting to keep red while others focusing on black; some still run Deadly Dispute whereas certain builds lean into Reverse Engineer. The story here is less about Glitter Affinity and more how All That Glitters has pushed the archetype to be more assertive, with the more controlling Grixis Affinity taking a huge step back in popularity. Glitter Affinity is more vulnerable to removal but also is able to run narrow protective spells such as Blacksmith’s Skill. Out of all the archetypes today, this one has the most room to develop.

The decks listed above only scratch the surface with nine others topping the 2% volume threshold (Dimir Terror, Reckless Burn, Gruul Ramp, Bogles, Grixis Affinity, Izzet Terror, Black Gardens, Heroic, and Jeskai Ephemerate). The top of the meta, however, skews towards the Jeskai wedge of colors with base black showing up in Black Gardens and green centered decks popping up in the various Ramp strategies and Bogles. Black has traditionally struggled when its removal does not line up with the metagame and with a more open meta that is bound to happen. As for green, aside from accelerating out land destruction and large threats, it doesn’t really do much. Green has been eclipsed as an aggressive color and large midrange creatures don’t really cut it in competitive Pauper. Wilds of Eldraine might help the verdant cause with Troublemaker Ouphe taking on a disruptive role but even then the color has a long climb to the top.

Pauper remains in a great spot. The top of the metagame is fairly diverse with a wide variety of competitive archetypes available. Lingering just behind the top five there are several other strategies that might just need a few tweaks and tuneups before taking the next step. What’s going to happen when the format ventures into the Wilds? We won’t have to wait long to find out.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

The second week of Commander Masters season is behind us and the metagame continues to evolve. After last week’s absurd performance by Boros Synthesizer, things have done anything but remain stagnant. Something old, something new, something borrowed, and something blue has definitely taken the spotlight.

First let’s explore Boros Synthesizer. It closed last week with an adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 3.26 – the best I’ve tracked thus far. This number is a rough representation of how much better a deck performance than an average Top 32 finish. Last week Boros just crushed the competition but this weekend it tanked with a score of -0.49. It is an accepted truism that early in seasons aggressive decks perform better because, to quote David Price, “there are no wrong threats; only wrong answers” and Boros presented a ton of threats. However after a week of people grinding out the format, the rogue’s gallery can be assembled so midrange and control decks can choose their weapon’s wisely when it comes to battling the beatdown.

This past weekend three different blue decks each place three pilots into the Top 8: Caw Gate, Izzet Terror, and Mono Blue Terror. CawGate continues to cement itself as a solid midrange option that never really goes out of style. Thanks to its mana base and flexible suite of answers it can be tuned and tweaked for most metagames. So that brings us to Izzet Terror and Mono Blue Control (or Mono Blue Terror, if you prefer). Izzet Terror had an adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 0.58; CawGate ended Sunday with a score of 1.09; Mono Blue lapped them with 2.21. Today I want to focus on the two Tolarian Terror and Cryptic Serpent strategies.

These two Terror decks have added Cryptic Serpent to their decks, upping their threat count. At the same time Dimir Terror decks have taken a step back in the metagame despite having a similar game plan. Dimir Terror leans on Snuff Out to survive the early game and needs its graveyard to fuel Gurmag Angler. Given this, and the noise around Spy Combo decks last week, it makes sense that people have adopted an increased amount of graveyard hate to try and constrain Dimir. So why have the other strategies been able to succeed? If I had to guess it is because while they may not have the slam dunk removal spell in Snuff Out they have enough creatures to brick wall most opposing attackers and can protect them with countermagic. Serpent and Terror can put opponents into The Abyss. Izzet can supplement this with sweepers and actual factual removal while mono blue can keep the opponent off balance with Counterspell and Snap until it can attack for the win. This is a very midrange approach to control in that it leans on having larger threats to stop attacks and therefore generate an incidental advantage.

How can one fight back against this approach. The first would be to go over them with evasive creatures (and we’ve seen the value of Murmuring Mystic skyrocket this month). Another option is to simply go larger as we have seen with Bogles. The two most recent challenges also displayed exactly what a successful All That Glitters Affinity deck can look like. Eschewing red, these decks lack Galvanic Blast and Deadly Dispute and lean on applying pressure in other ways, like an enchanted Ornithopter.

Glitter Affinity looks far closer to an aggro-control deck than the midrange control of Grixis Affinity. Lacking some of the reach of red variants, these builds want to resolve an early threat and get it over the line for lethal damage. There are some builds that try to get even lower to the ground and I for one am eagerly awaiting these decks’ final form.

Going into next week I would not focus to heavily on trying to answer a singular threat. The allure of Chainer’s Edict and Curfew are strong but I anticipate people will be attempting to fight against these decks by taking to the skies with Murmuring Mystic or other cheap flyers. Instead I would look for a deck that can either sidestep the attack step – like Simic Fog builds – or can handle threats both large and small. If someone can make a Pestilence deck work next week they could be well positioned to spike an event.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

Pauper isn’t sitting still. After a relatively brief six weeks in Lord of the Rings season the format gets to experience five weeks of Commander Masters before Wilds of Eldraine hits the shelves. The format is still adjusting to the presence of Lórien Revealed and the other Basic Landcylers, figuring out exactly how to craft correct mana bases with access to uncounterable, significantly more powerful copies of Lay of the Land. But time waits for no Magic player and the latest set – with its massive suite of downshifts – is upon us.

The first week of any format presents is noisy, except that noise may end up being significant when all is said and done. For example, Dimir Terror came out of the gates as the best deck during the previous season, performing well in the early weeks only to ride that crest and take home the best average Meta Score over the entire six week span. At the same time, I would not have pegged Jeskai Ephemerate as a top contender in the format on week two, even though it had the second best performance given the totality of the season.

I say all of this because at the end of the first weekend, Boros Synthesizer – some of which include the “all in” approach of All That Glitters and Wedding Invitation – had the best adjusted Meta Score this week at a whopping 3.26. Now this is a small sample size to be sure, but it is also the highest score of any archetype on any weekend going back to March of the Machine (where I first began tracking this metric). Boros Synthesizer loves to press damage and the addition of All That Glitters, while it might be “win more”, certainly applies pressure. That being said I would not be surprised if Boros’ early success trails off in the coming weeks as more people explore the options provided by Commander Masters.

One card I expect to see far more play is Murmuring Mystic. This card was all over the Top 32 this past weekend, albeit never as a four-of. Mystic, if it sticks, provides massive value to any spell based strategy. Battle Screech has long showcased the power of 1/1 flyers and Mystic is able to churn them out at a steady clip. We have already seen this card find a home in blue cantrip decks, Azorius Familiars, Jeskai Ephemerate, and as a sideboard juke out of the Simic Fog strategy. The biggest strike against the card is that it requires additional investment unlike Monarch or Initiative. Even so, the cost is one decks are happy to pay and with that in mind I would not be shocked to see more of this Wizard in the future.

What about next week? Boros Synthesizer looks to be a major player but both Bogles and Heroic are vying for the opportunity to be the best All That Glitters deck. With so many potential options for aggression, it would not surprise me if one of the various combo decks – either Poison Storm or the new variants of Balustrade Spy combo with Dread Return and Lotleth Giant – find a lane. In turn this could create an opportunity for decks like Black Gardens – with their disruption and removal – to sneak in and have an excellent showing. Regardless, it is an exciting time for Pauper and I cannot wait to see how things unfold.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

It’s hard to write about a format no one cares about anymore. The Commander Masters downshifts have been revealed and even though those cards are not legal yet, the Pauper playing populace has largely progressed past our present predicament. And to be honest, I get it. So much of the discourse around Pauper over the past years has been around the ascension of Affinity and then Red. It is only in the relatively recent past that the format has been able to adjust and adapt to having these two titans at the gravitational center of things. And yet, as Pauper approaches what is sure to be a sea change moment, the current format has continued to evolve.

The last few weekends have seen Dimir Terror start to loosen its grip on the top of the meta, with decks like Jeskai Ephemerate and CawGate making a push for the top spot. Even though Dimir Terror was overall the best performing Top 32 deck this weekend, the spotlight should be focusing on another stalwart.

Skred, as Michael J. Flores would say, is a hell of a Magic card. For a single mana it has the capability of taking out threats that far exceed its cost. As the game goes long, Skred simply increases in power which is not often the case for spells with a mana value of one. Jeskai Ephemerate, despite its rather ambitious suite of lands, has managed to make good use of Skred as has Gruul Ramp. Izzet Faeries is starting to put itself back on the map (five total appearances Top 32 in the first four weeks of Tales of Middle-earth season; 4 such appearances last weekend) and that deck leans heavily on the Snow Plow to clear the way.

Skred is good at the moment because it allows for additional play after you cast it while not costing you much life. Unlike Snuff Out, Skred has no alternate cost but it also does not tax an additional resource. While the various renditions of red might not be at the top they are still relevant and having a cheap way to clear the path that does not get you closer to dead is pretty darn good. Skred also has the advantage of being able to take out Gurmag Angler and Tolarian Terror (albeit for three mana) but when those creatures both appear in the most popular deck, a spell that can take out either half of the duo demands notice.

Izzet Terror split the finals of the Saturday Challenge but it is a deck that made me sit up and take note. The addition of Lórien Revealed has made it easier to fix your mana while also fueling Tolarian Terror. The rest of the deck is a Izzet control shell that leans on the Monarch as a way to stay ahead on cards. This deck is poised to take off in a few days when both Cryptic Serpent and Sulfurous Blast can be slotted into the deck. Izzet Terror can easily play a “protect the crown” strategy to accumulate cards and win on the back of Terror, but could also pivot to Murmuring Mystic or Goblin Wizardry in the sideboard.

For next week I would look for a way to ignore Skred. CawGate with Guardian of the Guildpact fits the bill but do not sleep on Naya Gates as an option. Of course, there’s always Bogles as well.

A quick note about next week: I will be on vacation with my family and may not be able to post my usual weekly recap so do not be alarmed if it does not show up.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

Apologies for the slightly abbreviated post this week – my family just moved and we are still getting settled. On top of that, this upcoming weekend is my spouse’s 40th birthday so I’m knee deep in planning that (and yes if you read this I am planning something; no I won’t tell you what it is). But back to the Magic.

This past weekend the best decks, on balance, were CawGate and Jeskai Ephemerate. CawGate had an adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.1 while Jeskai finished with a solid 0.8. This continues a trend for CawGate – it had the best score last weekend as well with 2.09 but Jeskai drastically improved upon its -0.05. Going into the next portion of the season I’d feel confident in putting Dimir Terror and CawGate as the decks to beat. Given the season to date they have (a)MSAR scores of 1.32 and 0.78 respectively.

But what about red? Kuldotha Red and Reckless Burn took down five Top 8s this weekend and each archetype won a challenge. Kuldotha Red had the better meta score at 0.69 (Reckless Burn clocked in at 0.34). These results come after a few weeks of the strategies under-performing and this rebound was to be expected – red is really good – but the performance of CawGate and Jeskai Ephemerate, both of which can lean into white’s defensive measures, goes a long way to applying a balm to the burn.

Dimir Terror had a down weekend with a score of -0.14. This may be due to the metagame adjusting to the former top dog or it could be a blip on the radar. Next week’s results will help to paint a better picture of Terror’s position in the overall metagame.

So where does this leave the format going into the latter half of July? Things are somewhat unsettled. There are a hand full of decks that can stake their claim to being the best options; both red variants, CawGate, Dimir Terror, Grixis Affinity, and Jeskai Ephemerate all have a reasonable case. For next weekend I would hedge my bets against Sacred Cat and Tolarian Terror, but finding the right removal spread could be tough.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

We are now firmly into The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth season. The impact of Lórien Revealed, Generous Ent, and Lembas continues to reverberate throughout the format. There is a clear top of the metagame, at least in the Challenges, and it looks a little different from last season.

Leading the way is Dimir Terror with a cumulative adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement (aMSAR) of 1.49, roughly one and a half wins better than the average Top 32 deck. It has the most Top 8s in the season thus far with 13 (out of 56 available Top 8 spots) alongside a win. Despite having a somewhat down weekend with an aMSAR of 0.75 (a full win less than the week prior), it still was the most popular deck in the Top 32 with 13 total appearances. The deck’s threats line up well with both Snuff Out and Skred and the builds can pack enough counter magic to play a solid “defend the crown” strategy. The deck can struggle when a board gets gummed up or when there are opponents who are well suited to win combat steps – remember, math is not just for blockers.

Grixis Affinity continues to put up numbers with a cumulative aMSAR of 0.78 but had the second best weekend with a 1.12 score. The deck continues to perform at a high level, adjusting to the new metagame and card pool by running some of the best cards available in the format. It is the fourth most popular Top 32 deck overall (20 appearances) and accounts for seven Top 8 finishes, but three overall wins. The advent of Cast into the Fire might hinder its plans somewhat, but for now Affinity continues to be a metagame force.

CawGate had a relatively rough go of it during March of the Machine season but appears to be back with a vengeance. The strategy does not crack the Top 5 in popularity but has a solid 0.59 aMSAR overall (with a gaudy score of 2.09 for the weekend of July 8 and 9). CawGate is leveraging the flexible mana base to, like Affinity, run some incredibly powerful and high impact cards. CawGate also benefits from the other two big decks running large creatures which in turn means fewer sweepers overall. Until such a time that Arms of Hadar, Suffocating Fumes, and Breath Weapon see a serious uptick in maindeck and sideboard slots CawGate should continue to perform.

There are two other decks that deserve a mention. First up is Red, combining both Reckless Burn and Kuldotha Red. Combined these two have an aMSAR of 0.1 (Kuldotha Red holds a 0.2 while Reckless Burn sits at -0.1, a little worse than an average Top 32 deck). None of this is to say these strategies are bad, just that given the length of Challenge level events they tend to fall off compared to other strategies. They still hold five total Top 8 slots and 30 total appearances, but it still clocks in in the back half of the Top Ten Power Rankings at the moment.

The other deck worth mentioning is Gruul Ramp (or Ponza). The strategy wants to destroy your lands and commit a haymaker like Avenging Hunter to the board. It has 23 total Top 32 appearances with 4 Top 8s and a decent aMSAR of 0.34 (behind the big three and Jeskai Ephemerate). This number is a bit misleading has it had two weekends where it performed worse than an average Top 32 deck (June 24-25 with a score of -0.17 and July 8-9 with a score of -0.1). Again this does not mean the strategy is deficient, but rather it is just not as good as some of the other options available.

These two strategies, however, can generate some of the biggest feels bad moments from heavily played decks. Losing to a Monastery Swiftspear high end draw can feel hopeless, as can having your second and third land destroyed by Mwonvuli Acid-Moss. The question for a competitive format is whether or not these moments should exist at the current level – are they a bug or a feature? I’m interested to hear constructive discussion on where people stand.

That being said next week I would come with a plan for 5/5s. Swirling Sandstorm and Breath Weapon both seem good if you can defend them from Hydroblast, so it is possible a “Monster” Tron deck could work if it could easily splash for Pyroblast.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

After two weeks the Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth season is starting to round into shape. The top decks from last weekend – Dimir Terror and Gruul Ramp – take full advantage of the single mana landcyclers from the latest release. These landcyclers, to paraphrase Luis Scott-Vargas from a recent episode of Limited Resources, combine the best part of running too many and too few lands. Early on these cards go and fix your mana while being a relevant spell in the latter stages of the game. In Dimir Terror the ability to go and get an Ice Tunnel or Contaminated Aquifer to turn on Snuff Out is massive as it allows the deck to apply pressure while also protecting itself from potential threats. In Gruul Ramp there are sequences with Arbor Elf that make it possible for a single Forest hand to not only hit the second land drop with Generous Ent, but also to hit Thermokarst or Mwonvuli Acid-Moss on curve, and this says nothing about potentially cascading into the Ent off of Annoyed Altisaur.

As of today, Dimir Terror is the deck to beat. It paced the field with an adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.47 over the first weekend and improved to 1.75 last weekend. This score is representative of how much better a strategy is than an average deck in the Top 32 and with these scores, Dimir Terror has shown itself to be about one and a half wins better than an “average” Top 32 deck and this bears out with an average 1.70 (a)MSAR over the first four challenges and one Showcase of the season thus far.

What does it mean to have Dimir Terror as the best deck? Like Faeries, Terror is a Counterspell strategy that wants to use its countermagic to help dictate the pace of play while also protecting key threats. Unlike Faeries, Terror is a more reactive deck, trying to set up situations where it can resolve a 5/5 at a discount in the middle stages of a game while Faeries wants to stick a small threat early to convert it into a Ninja, and as a result some new cards. Terror is less susceptible to Snuff Out and more vulnerable to Chainer’s Edict style removal while Faeries has more trouble with the sweepers in the format, as well as point removal.

Pauper Format Panel member Mirco Ciavatta (probably better known as Heisen01) won the July 2 Challenge with this build of Jeskai Ephemerate. Jeskai Ephemerate is a solid midrange option that can adjust to most metagames and this week Mirco came prepared. With Dimir Terror and Grixis Affinity at the forefront last week, Skred was less ideal as a point removal spell. Leaning into Lórien Revealed with Idyllic Beachfront and Molten Tributary, this build has given up on the Skred package. Rather, there are maindeck copies of Cast into the Fire as a flexible answer to small threats and artifacts and Journy to Nowhere as a catch all, even if it does require additional mana to remove Tolarian Terror. Kenku Artificer can also create a never ending speed bump to hold the fort until the Ephemerate engine can take over.

After Dimir Terror and Jeskai Ephemerate, the rest of the top of the metagame is full of familiar faces. Grixis Affinity continues to be a contender, as are Gruul Ramp and Boros Synthesizer. Faeries, Kuldotha Red, and Reckless Burn are all popular strategies that are finding it a bit harder to get a foothold in the current metagame. Out of these I think Kuldotha Red is the best positioned moving forward due to how it lines up with removal. We’ve already seen Dimir Terror adjust to increased kill spells with the return of Crawl from the Cellar. Because of this, I also think that Sacred Cat strategies, whether they are Boros Bully, CawGate, or something else, are poised to have a solid showing next weekend. Sacred Cat, and the creatures that tend to surround it, line up exceptionally well with point removal, Chainer’s Edict, and cards like Cast into the Fire. The downside is that these decks also tend to lean on Basilisk Gate, making it harder (but not impossible) for them to incorporate Lórien Revealed and its ilk.

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