August 5-6 Pauper Weekend Recap

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

Pauper isn’t sitting still. After a relatively brief six weeks in Lord of the Rings season the format gets to experience five weeks of Commander Masters before Wilds of Eldraine hits the shelves. The format is still adjusting to the presence of Lórien Revealed and the other Basic Landcylers, figuring out exactly how to craft correct mana bases with access to uncounterable, significantly more powerful copies of Lay of the Land. But time waits for no Magic player and the latest set – with its massive suite of downshifts – is upon us.

The first week of any format presents is noisy, except that noise may end up being significant when all is said and done. For example, Dimir Terror came out of the gates as the best deck during the previous season, performing well in the early weeks only to ride that crest and take home the best average Meta Score over the entire six week span. At the same time, I would not have pegged Jeskai Ephemerate as a top contender in the format on week two, even though it had the second best performance given the totality of the season.

I say all of this because at the end of the first weekend, Boros Synthesizer – some of which include the “all in” approach of All That Glitters and Wedding Invitation – had the best adjusted Meta Score this week at a whopping 3.26. Now this is a small sample size to be sure, but it is also the highest score of any archetype on any weekend going back to March of the Machine (where I first began tracking this metric). Boros Synthesizer loves to press damage and the addition of All That Glitters, while it might be “win more”, certainly applies pressure. That being said I would not be surprised if Boros’ early success trails off in the coming weeks as more people explore the options provided by Commander Masters.

One card I expect to see far more play is Murmuring Mystic. This card was all over the Top 32 this past weekend, albeit never as a four-of. Mystic, if it sticks, provides massive value to any spell based strategy. Battle Screech has long showcased the power of 1/1 flyers and Mystic is able to churn them out at a steady clip. We have already seen this card find a home in blue cantrip decks, Azorius Familiars, Jeskai Ephemerate, and as a sideboard juke out of the Simic Fog strategy. The biggest strike against the card is that it requires additional investment unlike Monarch or Initiative. Even so, the cost is one decks are happy to pay and with that in mind I would not be shocked to see more of this Wizard in the future.

What about next week? Boros Synthesizer looks to be a major player but both Bogles and Heroic are vying for the opportunity to be the best All That Glitters deck. With so many potential options for aggression, it would not surprise me if one of the various combo decks – either Poison Storm or the new variants of Balustrade Spy combo with Dread Return and Lotleth Giant – find a lane. In turn this could create an opportunity for decks like Black Gardens – with their disruption and removal – to sneak in and have an excellent showing. Regardless, it is an exciting time for Pauper and I cannot wait to see how things unfold.

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