NerdtotheCore

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

There are a few things you can take away from this past weekend’s Magic Online Pauper Challenges. The first might be Beicodegeia’s absurd four challenge win streak that wrapped up on Saturday. Another could be the continued strength of the blue and red strategies or the ascension of CawGate and Mono White Aggro on Sunday. However I feel what a lot of the discourse will center around will be this finalist list from Sunday:

The sideboard here is dedicated entirely to beating the red and blue decks that have been seeing play in the Challenges and judging from Gn42’s placement the gamble seemed to pay off, at least on Sunday. The question this brings to my mind is whether or not this is correct. So let’s dive in.

If you pay attention to the conversation around Pauper you no doubt see metagame numbers for every deck in the Challenges, not just the Top 32. These numbers can look alarming with Blue Terror and Kuldotha Red making up somewhere between 20% and 40% of a metagame on a given day. However this does not take into the account the overall size of these events which are relatively small when looking at a large tournament; when a single pilot can account for nearly 2% of the entire field these numbers can be misleading. Now to be clear, if people are running these strategies in large numbers it makes sense to come prepared with answers in their sidebaord and in the strategic choices made during deck construction. At the same time there is a bit of an Information Cascade taking place.

Shocker – Alex is referring to this article again.

Right now if you are paying attention to Pauper discussion a significant amount of it centers on dissatisfaction. The strength of red decks has been pushed in the past two years which in turn has shifted the focus of the format from control elements to assertive strategies. Applying pressure is now the Level Zero strategy as opposed to Pauper before Modern Horizons II where trying to find answers and drawing out the game was the baseline; take it from someone who tried to figure out how to attack through Stonehorn Dignitary lock for years. Red decks are not only fantastic at applying pressure but the old game plan of running them out of cards no longer applies thanks to the advent of Reckless Impulse and Wrenn’s Resolve. This leads some people to believe they need to max out of the blue suite of Blasts. In a similar vein, the current crop of blue decks gets on the board quickly and one of the best ways to answer their large threats is via the red pair of Blasts. These cards are not the only way but they are effective enough that if you get the right matchups a 15 card sideboard made of of these will do enough.

What does it mean to reframe the format through the lens of aggression? Let’s look at the decklist again. CawGates is a deck where a core conceit of the engine is to leverage lands that enter the battlefield tapped to turn Basilisk Gate into a card that can end the game in conjunction with any creature. The deck runs 11 lands that enter the battlefield tapped, another four that do not produce discrete colors of mana and one that filters mana. CawGate is very strong deck but by nature it has to play from behind and therefore has to make concessions to the beatdown decks (as in Who’s the Beatdown?) in Pauper. In this case it is about running several one mana answers to the most popular decks in the format in the sideboard to improve those matchups.

Pauper is a format where the mana is the best it has ever been but is still lacking in some ways. There are no lands consistently that produce multiple colors of mana that also enter play untapped. In order to fully leverage a multicolor deck it involves playing some number of tapped lands and making other considerations in deck construction. This, more than the presence of any one or two decks, is more important to the long term health of Pauper as a format. If a core element of midrange and control mana bases is rendered useless then perhaps there is a problem. At the same time several decks that make use of these slow two color lands continue to see success and not all of them need to take such drastic measures as the list presented above. While that alone is not enough to indicate a “healthy metagame” it is part of a larger picture.

How can midrange decks reposition themselves for an assertive metagame? I do not think they can entirely give up on dual lands as that will only lead to mana problems in the middle and later stages of the game. Reevaluating different one mana removal spells is a step as is taking a hard look at mana bases in order to facilitate casting spells on a defensive curve. The new basic landcyclers from Tales from Middle-earth can do a lot of work in this department. And I know it’s a meme at this point but it may also be about playing more cards in the vein of Thraben Inspector that can absorb damage and provide a benefit later. Thraben Inspector is not a strategy unto itself but it is emblematic of a style of card that has seen print several times recently – a one drop with upside. These cards will not win the game on their own and may only eat one attack or one removal spell, but they can provide the time necessary to bridge from the developing stages of the game to one where answers can come online.

The shift towards a format centered on assertiveness has a cost, especially as it relates to a change in what matters. The temporal cost of plays is now a very real consideration and taking time off develop can be costly. The increased strength gained from dipping into multiple colors has not vanished but it might mean waiting until the third or fourth turn to have that option as opposed to playing a Gate or Gain Land on the first or second turns of the game. Plays that come later in the game also have to do a better job of shutting the door so as to prevent decks with reload capabilities from, well, reloading.

Interaction also must adapt. While cheap spells remain best more and more games of Pauper play out on the board. Building a deck where the goal is to take the first few turns off to sculpt a hand and sit back on traditional control elements or hope for your turn four flourish to take over comes with inherent risk. The question that should be posed in deck construction is whether or not you’re willing to take that on, not bemoan those who take advantage of the cards available.

Pauper continues to evolve and adapt, albeit at a different pace than other non-rotating formats. If these trends worsen and the number of viable decks dwindles then perhaps more action needs to be taken at a structural level. For now, how are you adapting to the new realities of the Pauper metgame?

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

Three weeks into Wilds of Eldraine season and some trends are starting to emerge. Blue Terror and Kuldotha Red are proving themselves, at least in the early running, to be better than the field. Today let’s explore exactly how big of a gap it is we’re looking at.

The adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement measures an archetype against the average performance of a strategy in the Magic Online Top 32 Challenge Metagame, correct for volume. Over the first three weeks of this season, Blue Terror has an aMSAR score of 1.59 while Kuldotha Red has a score of 1.23. The next best archetype after these two is Gruul Ramp with a score of 0.24. That is pretty significant drop off but it does not tell us all that much in isolation.

Let’s compare it to Commander Masters season. After five weeks (10 Challenges), Kuldotha Red led the way with a 1.22 aMSAR. The next best performing deck was Glitter Affinity at 0.99 with Blue Terror not far behind at 0.91. There were actually seven archetypes that were within a single aMSAR point of Kuldotha Red which speaks to how last season there was a better sense of competitive balance at the top of the metagame. Going back even further there were five decks within one aMSAR point of the top performer during Lord of the Rings season (Dimir Terror, 1.38).

What does this all mean today? If the current trend continues I would say that there is a problem. At the same time I am not so sure that these results of indicative of the format. And it has something to do with “Name Sticker” Goblin. Newly legal on Magic Online, this Unfinity pastiche has amassed quite the reputation. Given the mechanical implementation of the card it will always be mana postitive and can provide explosive turns out of Kuldotha Red. All six of the Blue Terror decks that made Top 8 this weekend were running the full 8 copies of Blue Elemental Blast/Hydroblast. Whether this was correct or not does not matter in the abstract in that it was the fear of the Goblin and the reaction that led to these lists. At the same time it can be argued that it is correct to run all of this hate as it is the only way Blue Terror can compete against the red decks.

Both the blue and red decks at the top of the metagame run some of the best threats Pauper has ever seen. At the same time the format has access to the highest density of card advantage engines and the strongest removal in the history of competitive Pauper. All of this is to say that Pauper, as it exists today, is at an apex power level and is striving towards balance. It is always better to present a threat as you can pack the wrong answers, and I believe that is part of what we are seeing today in Pauper. Despite the fact that all three – threats, answers, engines – are the best they have ever been, it is easy to pick a threat and selecting the wrong removal suite or card advantage package can spell certain doom.

Pauper is no longer a format where you can simply draw more cards than an opponent and expect those options will carry you. Mistakes are costly and match-ups can be unforgiving. In light of the current wave of creatures that are turning sideways I would be very high on Vapor Snag next week. It can counter the Goblin trigger, remove a Glittering creature from Affinity, or buy much needed time against one of blue’s massive serpents.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

I still like Pauper.

This probably looks like an odd thing to read in a blog that is largely dedicated to the format, in a weekly update on the competitive metagame for said format…but it still feels like it needs to be said. At times it feels like the majority of online discourse around Pauper circles around how bad things are; how far things have strayed from good and true Magic.

I want to talk about this. Maybe I’m feeling a certain way about fostering a community in the wake of the passing of Sheldon Menery (probably). Perhaps I’m coming off of an incredibly busy period in my personal life and just want to put digital ink to the digital page (definitely). I know for a fact that if you’re not having fun with a leisure activity then you shouldn’t continue to pursue it.

I started playing Pauper when I was in college. I was a Junior in the Spring 2005 semester and was trying to find an outlet for my competitive streak when I found the Pauper Deck Challenge community and I fell for it hard. I loved the unexplored nature (at the time) of the format and the people involved in putting on the events. I got a thrill out of how new everything felt. Then the format became officially recognized on Magic Online and my relationship with Pauper changed. I still loved trying new things and brewing decks, but I found another way to connect with the format. I started to chronicle it, tracking the metagame and reporting out on the happenings. I wanted to share something I enjoyed with the world and provide a way for other people to potentially find something fun to do with their spare time.

All the while I was writing, sharing, some would say evangelizing. I believed in Pauper. I built relationships with the folks who made the game and tried, even when I was critical, to be respectful. And for the past year and a half I have been part of the Pauper Format Panel. My relationship with Pauper has changed again and I am sure it will change in the future.

I’m going to let you in on a little secret: throughout my nearly 19 years of playing Pauper there have been times when I haven’t played. When I took a step back and decided that I’d rather do something else with my time. Maybe it was cook a good meal and get some extra sleep; train for a half marathon or read a book. But I always come back because I find it fun.

There’s a comfort I find in Pauper. That despite the new cards that things largely look similar. Maybe Mono Black Control is not as good as it was when I started but there are decks that play similarly. Blue decks will always be countering spells and red decks are always going to be burning my face. Things may have gotten more efficient over the years, more powerful, but by and large Pauper is still Pauper.

What has changed are the rules of engagement. Pauper, for a long time, was a format where simple accumulation of resources could translate to victory and this was largely concentrated in blue. The Monarch expanded it into other colors and the Initiative doubled down on this territory. Deadly Dispute and Experimental Synthesizer made this flow more efficient. That is important because once the cards were gathered the next step was deploying them. Tron was regent for so long due in part to how well it could fill its grip and then cast those very same spells; Monarch was jam packed with cheap removal for this very reason. Now this same efficacy is spread more evenly, albeit with power concentrated in certain cards and packages.

Before Pauper could be defined by powerful singular cards or tight combos. Now the format is based around different cores that can slot into different builds for desired outcomes. While this closes off some element of exploration in deck construction it can be liberating in helping to prop up decks that might not otherwise be able to cut the mustard.

Decisions matter now, more than ever. There is little room for error and tight play is rewarded. Maybe the choice has to be made in deck construction or in the posture you assume from turn one (Who’s the Beatdown? indeed). And I find this fun. In the micro maybe I’ll get rolled by bringing yesterday’s weapon to today’s battle, but other times I’ll be rewarded for those very same choices.

Playing Magic should be fun. Now I can’t define that for you, but if you aren’t having it then maybe it’s time to take a break and come back with fresh eyes. Life is too short to do stuff that you don’t like to do.

But if you’re having fun in Pauper and want to get a jump on next week you better have a plan for red. Whether that’s lifegain or blockers, red is out in force. I know it is a meme at this point, but there’s nothing wrong with running Thraben Inspector out there given the way things are going right now.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.

Traditionally the earliest part of a metagame cycle favors aggressive decks. When new cards are released into the wild it is far easier to present threats than to have the proper responses. Metagames take time to coalesce around the new environment at which point the more granular decisions can be made. You never want to bring Flame Slash to a Skred fight or be stuck with Dispel when you really wanted Spell Pierce. In that way it is no surprise that Kuldotha Red did well during the first weekend of Wilds of Eldraine season.

But how well did it actually do? We can see the Top 8 numbers – six of the sixteen Top 8 slots went to Kuldotha Red and it won the Sunday challenge. On this metric there is no doubt Kuldotha out performed the field. Digging deeper the numbers are both far less, and far more interesting.

For this we need to look at the Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement. This score takes an archetype’s total Swiss record and it’s total Win-Loss record and compares it to those same averages for each other archetype, and then adjusts for metagame presence. Last weekend Kuldotha Red had an aMSAR of 1.79 – far and away the best performance on the weekend with Gruul Ramp holding the next highest score of 0.65.

Kuldotha absolutely had a great weekend but it is not giving me too much cause for concern. At the start of Commander Masters season Boros Synthesizer had an amazing first weekend, pulling down an aMSAR of 3.26 with the next best deck (Dimir Terror) clocking in at 0.93. Boros Synth ended the five week season with a respectable aMSAR of 0.67. Now I’m not saying that Kuldotha Red is going to take such a stark dive but it is important to look at these weekends as part of a larger picture.

What does that picture tell us? Taking Kuldotha’s success last season and the first weekend with new cards I would not put too much stock into the results as a long term predictor of anything. I would feel confident in saying Kuldotha Red is not going anywhere for the foreseeable future, but I also doubt it is going to run roughshod every week moving forward.

Here is where we come to the limitations of the Magic Online metagame. The pool of regular Challenge players is relatively static and as such singular results can cause ripples out of proportion with their actual impact. Because of this the metagame can be prone to overcorrection – a bevy a blue decks leads to some maindeck copies of Pyroblast which then leads to people trying to dodge en masse and ta-da.

So what does that mean moving forward? Another overcorrection is likely coming as people react to Kuldotha Red and load up on more anti-red measures. If I were trying to sidestep all of this I would avoid running Mountains and Islands next week and see if I could sneak in a Glistener Elf that has had it’s noble spirit Embiggened.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I now have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!