Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
I’m back. It’s been a while and it wouldn’t be inappropriate to ask “Where have you been?” The reality of being an adult is that life has a habit of complicating things. Since my last post in :checks the calendar: May, a lot has happened. We have closed the book on both halves of Secrets of Srtixhaven season – both before and after the trial unban of Bonder’s Ornament – and have seen the release of Marvel Super Heroes and the subsequent ban of Seeker of Skybreak. To be clear I am not going to be discussing the bans today, but rather where the format stands as we stand on the precipice of the Summer tabletop season. In a few short days the summer Paupergeddon will be taking place, as will the first Paupergenesis. Two nations that have no shot at winning the World Cup this year will be helping to shape the format for months to come.
Don’t worry Spain, I know you just held a massive tournament and as of writing still have a shot at winning it all.
Pauper remains largely stable, but it is hardly static. The decks that have been at the top of the metagame are still there but new substrategies are starting to emerge, and some old familiar faces have shown up again. These metagames reward people who are proficient with their deck of choice. Having a matchup advantage counts for something, but knowing each matchup and what matters goes further when the landscape is well explored. Still the polarity of Pauper continues to be on full display and exploiting this attribute of the format could provide another edge as round one begins, whether it’s in Lucca, Baltimore, or Magic Online.
Pauper games are defined either by the first three turns of the game or those taking place in the double digits. The early stages of Pauper matches are dominated by Goblin Tomb Raider, Guttersnipe, and Priest of Titania. These decks try to establish a dominant position early and even if they do not win before the start of the fifth turn they are well on their way. Balustrade Spy and Leonard, Big Brother are not far behind, with both of their homes capable of winning on turn four or grinding out a victory a few turns later. The middle part of the format should not be a surprise, with Crypt Rats, Spellstutter Sprite, Tolarian Terror, and Utrom Monitor establishing themselves for the scant middle ground. The midrange extends beyond turns five through nine with the help of Basilisk Gate, Cleansing Wildfire, and Ephemerate. While the decks that kill you quick do just that, the rest of the format can take their time to extract every last ounce of value before going in for the kill.
This is the polarity present in Pauper.
Operating outside the established top tier metagame means trying to find your lane. There are few decks that can reasonably go longer than the existing top endgame strategies in Pauper and if you’re playing a multiround tournament you need to have the physical and mental endurance to loop Stream of Thought and Tangle in a crisp manner so as to not go to time every round and be a pleasant opponent. Going under (or rather, sidestepping) the existing metagame is somewhat easier. Both Gruul Storm and Cycle Storm represent quick clocks that, while known archetypes, attack at the perpendicular. Yes, most decks care about the graveyard in some way but both of these combo strategies have the ability to play around these effects and still win. This makes them incredibly dangerous in open metas. It also makes them vulnerable. Given enough graveyard hate, enough copies of Duress, enough niche counterplay over the course of an event and any well tuned engine can fail. Still if you are looking to sign the match slip 2-0 in your favor before other people have resolved their mulligans going the combo route makes the most sense.
But what if you want a way to play in the middle and latter stages of the game? What if you want to dodge the typical slate of removal and interaction? If you have not made up your mind for this weekend I would absolutely recommend finding a Basilisk Gate deck that you like. Basilisk Gate can turn any meager creature into a game ending threat. It dodges the most commonly player interaction and as long as you have a way to keep any toughness – not even power – on the battlefield you have a win condition. There are plenty of ways to build in this inevitability, with Sneaky Snacker being the latest addition to Gates decks as another way to ensure there’s always another body.
There are things I would want to avoid going into these tournaments. Decks like Monster Tron, which have a real fail case, can a huge risk. A more skilled pilot than me could overcome these shortcomings but personally I would avoid trying to count to seven. Similarly I would not want to bring a dedicated graveyard deck to these events as Nihil Spellbomb is a mainstay in Grixis and Jund. I would want to avoid decks that fold to one or two points of interaction, and instead want something resilient. While Gates decks tick a lot of these boxes it is not the only strategy to do so – downshifts like Makeshift Munitions and Murmuring Mystic can fill the same role.
These is another wrinkle I haven’t brought up yet: Marvel Super Heroes. So much of the discourse around this set was focused on Hawkeye’s Bow and while a few other cards have picked up steam (Crossover Collaboration, Call damage Control), the sheer size of the set and the JumpState/Commander supplement means there is the potential for a giant sized issue of unexplored space.
So that’s where I see things. What do you think? What metagame are you expecting this weekend and what decks do you think will come out on top?
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