Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
We are now two weeks into Secrets of Strixhaven season. While I’m hesitant to say that the metagame has settled, some of the trends from last week have continued. In my experience it takes a few weeks for a shift in the meta to become entrenched but at the same time there is more Pauper being played today than at any point that came before. It is entirely plausible that the timeline I keep in my head is outdated and this iteration of metamorphosis is complete.
Historically, Pauper has been slow to adjust at a macro level. Before the advent of high power sets in the vein of Modern Horizons, new game pieces were either fungible as they represented a modest improvement on an existing option, or key to jumpstarting a fledgling archetype. The amount of inertia in Pauper was so great that just making the cut into the 75 was a huge deal.
When the Horizons era kicked off that all changed. Pauper was regularly getting an infusion of incredibly powerful cards. While many strategies survived and adjusted many more sprung into existence and helped to shake up the metagame. The relative stability of the previous epoch was upended every few months as potent cards jolted the system. For players who entered the format during during this time it was normal for things to change rapidly. As the game has now left the Horzions model, due in some part to the impact on non-rotating formats, Pauper was expected to regress to its mean of steady evolution.
I mentioned inertia before and I wanted to expand on the concept. Non-rotating formats carry the weight of history, of three plus decades of cards all vying to be included. When you consider the sheer number of options that have been released, and all their combinations therein, it follows that a relatively small percentage of cards end up being powerful enough to make the cut. Put another way, we are not going to get a card better than Lightning Bolt anytime soon.
At the same time, thirty years is a long time and over that span advances in the design of limited formats leads to the iteration of various themes for 40 card play. These structure supporting said themes is made up largely of commons which means over a long enough timeline the weight of options becomes enough to overcome the barrier to entry, breaking through. We have seen this time and time again over the history of Pauper, albeit now we’re seeing it happen much more frequently.
Why? Unexplored draft archetypes are drying up which means that existing options are being revisited. As a result more commons are made to support them which in turn pushes their potential relevance in Pauper.
This entire conversation is being brought to you by Boros Eidolons. This deck is the culmination of multiple sets that care about the graveyard and now two visits to Arcavios where Lorehold wants cards to leave the bin. The result is a deck where many of the pieces have existed for literal decades but now fit together to not only overcome the inertia but to do so while being highly competitive in Pauper. If this trend in limited design continues then we very well could be entering an amazing time for new Pauper decks to crop up.
This week’s Power Rankings have show just how much things can change in a short span of time. There are five archetypes listed that did not make the top ten in the previous iteration of the standings. Some of this may be the format adjusting to new threats – I do not expect all three assertive red decks to finish the season in the Top 10 for example – but the list below can show just how much things can change when new cards enter an established format.
Power Rankings
Last Power Rankings: April 22
Dropped from rankings: Dimir Terror, Grixis Affinity, Mono White Aggro, Rakdos Madness Spy Combo
10. Red Synth (Not Ranked)
9. Boros Snacker (Not Ranked)
8. Selesnya Gates (Not Ranked)
7. Elves (-4)
6. Rally Red (Not Ranked)
5. Boros Eidolons (Not Ranked)
4. Madness Burn (-3)
3. Blue Terror (+3)
2. Golgari Gardens (+2)
1. Jund Wildfire (+5)
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