November 22-24 Pauper Weekend Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Normally these posts focus on the Magic Online Pauper Challenges, and specifically the Top 32 results from these events. While there was a period where I looked at the entire metagame from Challenges, this was due to Daybreak publishing every decklist. That practice has ended and for better or worse I get to return my focus to a smaller suite of lists. This week, however, I would be remiss if I ignore the results of the recent Paupergeddon event in Rome where four Basking Broodscale combo decks made the Top 8, including taking both spots in the finals.

Here are the familiar caveats for anyone who has been following me for the past few years. The opinions I am about to express are mine. They do not represent the views of the wider Pauper Format Panel and should not be taken as such. Rather this are my observations on the current state of Pauper. Do not read too much into what follows.

Back to our regularly scheduled program. Broodscale Combo has become a real force in the format. There are three main varieties of the deck: a straight Golgari build, a largely Black-Green build that adds Writhing Chrysalis, and a Jund build that also adds Cleansing Wildfire, Krark-Clan Shaman, and Makeshift Munitions to the mix. Collectively the combo has been gaining ground in the metagame culminating in Jund Broodscale coming in third in my final Duskmourn Power Rankings (Golgari Broodscale placed fifth).

The Broodscale combo has, by my measure, three things going for it. First it is objectively powerful. As early as turn three it can generate an unbound amount of power and toughness. If left unchecked this means lethal damage, sometimes before the opponent could potentially resolve a Phyrexian Rager. Second, the combo is compact requiring only two cards. Yes, you can win with out elements such as Gravitic Punch, Makeshift Munitions, or Rancor, but the core of the combo can still get the job done and requires two pieces. That both of these card types are easy to find in green, while black does a good job of getting creatures back from the bin, and you can add the asterisk of resilience to this bullet. Finally, the combo is cheap. Ignoring secondary spouts the entire mana investment of the cards themselves is three. While technically you need an additional two mana to get the ball rolling that is not always the case, especially if you have spare Spawn strewn about. Taken together this represents a combo that is definitely straddling The Line of what is healthy for a competitive format. To be clear this is not to say that Broodscale Combo is too powerful for Pauper but rather the confluence of all these factors means it might present a problem for the metagame in the long term.

In the wake of Rome there has been quite a bit of discussion about what, if anything, needs to be done. Outside of the combo pieces themselves I see two cards getting the lion’s share of attention: Writhing Chrysalis and Deadly Dispute. The Chrysalis is a powerful card, no doubt, but at the end of the day it is a stat monster. The scourge of Modern Horizons 3 limited has a lot going for it. Reach means it can block creatures with flying and Devoid is actual text here, turning off Hydroblast. They also stack nicely, with the Spawn from any Eldrazi helping to make these spiders giant. At the end of the day Chrysalis just represents another creature that is larger than what has come before. The abundance of removal available to Pauper means that an answer may be uncovered soon. For example, I have had some success experimenting with Temporal Isolation as of late. I started running this card as a way to tax Crypt Rats and Krark-Clan Shaman, but it does a fine job against monsters as well.

That brings us to Deadly Dispute. For the past few years this card has been just out of focus when discussing the power surge in Pauper. A two mana draw two that asks you to sacrifice a creature or artifact might seem like a big ask – one worth a Lotus Petal cash back rebate – but in reality the additional cost is negligible. From Khalni Garden to Blood Fountain, there is a ton of material available, much of which is free and as such Deadly Dispute becomes effectively a one mana draw two. Even if you choose to invest a piece of cardboard, like Ichor Wellspring for example, you end up with another card worth of value. While cards like Fanatical Offering and Reckoner’s Bargain are similar, Dispute gets all the press because it comes with a free piece of Treasure. Given that Pauper has gotten faster over the years and is now more mana efficient than ever, that Treasure is worth its weight in gold.

Deadly Dispute is representative of a shift towards that efficiency. For many years the standard for accruing significant card advantage was Ephemerate and Mulldrifter. For a total investment of 2UW and two cards you would get +4 cards and a 2/2 flyer on layaway, all at sorcery speed. In order to reap the full rewards, however, it would take at least two full turn cycles (more if you cared about attacking). Compare this to Ichor Wellspring and Deadly Dispute. For a net mana cost of 2B you invest two cards (one of which already replaced itself) and get two fresh looks, for a net of +2 cards at instant speed. That this can be broken up over multiple turns is a huge advantage over the comparatively ponderously slow Ephemerate lines.

Non-rotating, or eternal formats, trend towards efficiency over time. I encourage you all to read this piece by Lawrence Harmon which does a fantastic job explaining this phenomenon. Given a long enough timeline all formats with a fixed starting point, that lack a pruning, will naturally drift towards running the most efficient – or best – version of a given effect. Sometimes the desired game action comes with a hefty mana investment – like The One Ring – but there are ways to subvert that or prolong games to a state where the overwhelming advantage can take over. Pauper might have taken longer to get on this train but currently it is traveling downhill as well. The decline of Mulldrifter based card advantage started with the introduction of the Monarch, which took time but made the card draw free. The Monarch gave way to the Initiative, which had a fixed set of one mana spells but cast them for you with some play to the sequencing. Now we are seeing Pauper focus on “draw twos” for minimal mana, with Thoughtcast and Experimental Synthesizer joining Deadly Dispute in this pantheon. Every time Pauper takes another step towards in this direction it requires a realignment of the rules of engagement.

What does that look like? I am not entirely sure at this moment. The current metagame is likely trending in the right direction, but this also helps to underscore the frustration with the prevalence of both Grixis Affinity and Kuldotha Red. These two decks have been top tier strategies for quite some time and they remain there in part because they are so efficient. These decks are able to enact their game plan on minimal mana and are able to easily run the latest “best in slot” option. Blue Terror also falls into this camp as do both Broodscale Combo and Writhing Chrysalis.

There is a way to stall the boulder rolling downhill, and that is the intervention of bans. While it cannot remove a format from the slope it can help ease the fall. If the Pauper Format Panel decides that things, as they currently exist, are not sustainable then it would be time to act. As mentioned before you’re not going to get any behind-the-scenes insight from me on this point. That being said it will be interesting to see how other decks solve for this new emerging reality of Pauper. What cards do you see as going up in value and what strategies exist that could break through?

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