Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
If Glitter Affinity lost a step last week, it decided to take a nap on the side of the road as the world passed it by this past weekend. The trend that began three weeks ago continued as the most recent format terror came crashing back down to earth. For context, the weekend of March 2-3 saw Glitter affinity with 34.67% of the Challenge Winner’s Metagame (this exclude’s that weekend’s Qualifier) with an adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.55. Fast forward to March 9-10 and Glitter Affinity had 27.03% of the winner’s metagame with an aMSAR of 1.06. March 16-17 saw that number tumble further to 13.87% of the winner’s meta and an aMSAR score of 0.55. Last weekend, the deck cratered to 4.55% of the winner’s meta with an aMSAR of -0.12. The strategy went from setting the pace of the field to performing worse than an average Top 32 deck.
Let’s start at the top with Kuldotha Red. This powerhouse had fallen on hard times as Glitter took the top spot in the metagame, but as Affinity has fallen, Red has risen. Part of this is due to a small shift in sideboarding that has brought both Gorilla Shaman and Smash to Smithereens back into focus. These cards fight Glitter Affinity on different axes and also represent two different philosophies when it comes to attacking the meta.
Smash to Smithereens is not the most efficient artifact destruction spell. It lacks the versatility of Cast into the Fire or the cost of Smelt. What it does do, however, is work perfectly with Kuldotha Red’s overall strategy. Even if it targets an indestructible land the damage still gets through so in a less than ideal scenario the card still does work. More than that it does exactly what the deck wants to be doing. Compare this to a card like Dust to Dust which rarely has synergy with a game plan. Instead of taking a turn off to potentially have an impact, Smash to Smithereens will always do something. While Kuldotha Red is not in the market for a below-rate Lava Spike having access to one that will occasionally knock an Ornithopter out of the sky does not hurt.
Gorilla Shaman is everything Dust to Dust aspires to be. While it fails at hitting creatures and the Bridges it can easily pick off the Mirrodin artifact lands while also hitting those all important Clue tokens and copies of Springleaf Drum. Glitter Affinity is a mana hungry deck and in the early turns it is often creating material that it cannot protect. The Mox Monkey can come down and start chewing through artifacts which in turn makes it harder for Glitter to stick to the plan. Gorilla Shaman also demands an answer or else it keeps doing work. Compare this to Dust to Dust which works for a single turn and has no persistent impact beyond the card text.
So what decks capitalized on Glitter’s fall? Kuldotha Red was the most popular strategy in the both the Challenges and the Top 32 metagame, but was second in Winner’s Meta share with 12.49% and fell outside the top four of aMSAR scores with 0.31. The best deck on the weekend goes to Dimir Faeries with an impressive 19.65% of the winner’s metagame and a stellar aMSAR score of 2.36 (for those of you keeping score, this is better than any one weekend of Glitter Affinity over the past month). One potential reason for this surge might have to do with Extract a Confession, which helps to shore up Dimir’s weakness against singular large threats in decks that can dodge a Chainer’s Edict.
Next week should be interesting for Pauper. I do not see a world where Glitter Affinity turns on a dime and comes back strong. Nor do I see a continued surge in Kuldotha Red. Rather I think Boros Synth decks that are packing All That Glitters put their stamp on the format in a big way. These builds can see a ton of cards and if they move in on Seeker of the Way have the ability to pile on the damage in ways that make Galvanic Blast blush.
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