Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
At the end of last week’s update I wrote that Glitter Affinity should be at the forefront of your mind if you are preparing for a Magic Online Pauper event these days. Last weekend’s results seem to indicate that the Pauper playing population agrees. While Glitter Affinity remained the most popular deck in the Challenges (27 total appearances), it dipped from 20.4% overall volume last week to a far more reasonable 15.8% this last weekend. On the surface it appears that Affinity continues to experience success, albeit at a reduced rate. And with three Top 8s to its credit over the three challenges that would appear to be the case. But regular readers are sure to note that the way I wrote this paragraph indicates that Affinity maybe, just maybe, has lost a step.
And a step is exactly what it appears to have lost. Glitter Affinity saw a drop from 15.8% of the overall field to 14.58% of the Top 32 metagame and then another drop to 13.87% of the winner’s metagame. The decline is not drastic and while it is potentially in line with the overall presence it does seem to indicate that folks came prepared to take Affinity down a peg. And looking at some of the results it all comes down to Turn Aside.
After sideboarding Glitter Affinity has access to the full four copies of Metallic Rebuke and usually two or three copies of Turn Aside. Having up to seven (effectively) one mana counterspells can make removing threats difficult. However the meta has adjusted in its answers. The number of copies of Defile in Black Gardens has gone up, allowing the deck to maneuver to a point where a removal spell will get the job done. Boros Synth made a dent in the Top 32 and between Journey to Nowhere and Makeshift Munitions, they are able to sidestep the protection offered by Turn Aside.
This is part of a dynamic metagame and frankly, it’s awesome to see in Pauper. When the format is stuck in a less than healthy cycle so often these decisions do not matter against the top of the field. Instead we are seeing the real time application of metagaming against the best decks and are also seeing the rewards of such behavior. By the end of the weekend we were also seeing some Glitter pilots adjust back, moving off of Turn Aside and towards Apostle’s Blessing as a way protect their investment at all costs.
But enough about Glitters for now, what decks performed well over the weekend?
Over the three challenges 28 different archetypes cleared the Top 32 threshold and 14 different strategies earned a Top 8 berth. Part of this diversity may have to do with the relatively small fields for each event (47, 64, 52) but it is still something of note. Something else that sticks out like a sore thumb is how well Black Gardens performed. It was the most popular deck in the Top 32 and tied for the most Top 8s. Gardens ended up with 18.5% of the winner’s metagame – up from 14.6% of the overall meta – and led the way with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.19. This number tops Glitter Affinity’s 1.06 aMSAR score from last week.
Skipping over the next deck in aMSAR (Glitter Affinity with 0.55) we come to Dimir Faeries with 0.49. Another deck that leans hard on interaction, Faeries splits its answers between countermagic and removal. It was remarkably consistent, with 10.5% of the overall metagame volume, 10.42% of the Top 32 metgame and 10.9% of the winner’s metagame. In this Dimir Faeries represented the baseline choice for the weekend, serving as a standard against which the other decks can be examine.
The last thing I want to note for this week is the small bounce in Kuldotha Red. The deck had a fairly miserable performance last weekend with an aMSAR of -0.29 – meaning it was worse than an average choice in the Top 32 – with 0.52% of the winner’s meta share. Most recently it did not return to its heyday but took up a very respectable 4.79% of the winner’s meta, improving its aMSAR to -0.07, only ever so slightly worse than an average Top 32 deck. I do not expect Kuldotha to jump back to the top of the meta next week but it could see another step up as people attempt to adjust to beat the current top three of Black Gardens, Dimir Faeries, and Glitter Affinity.
Next week is going to be about dodging removal. With two black decks at the forefront of the format right now going wide could be one path to victory as a way to get around Tithing Blade and pinpoint removal. At the same time these decks are capable of packing board wipes so relying on an army of tokens does carry risk. Instead, look toward either a well tuned build of Jeskai Ephemerate or a Guardian of the Guildpact deck to you over the finish line. Jeskai has the ability to pack all the answers and close out the game while Guardian dodges removal like nobody’s buisness.
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