I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
It’s hard to write about a format no one cares about anymore. The Commander Masters downshifts have been revealed and even though those cards are not legal yet, the Pauper playing populace has largely progressed past our present predicament. And to be honest, I get it. So much of the discourse around Pauper over the past years has been around the ascension of Affinity and then Red. It is only in the relatively recent past that the format has been able to adjust and adapt to having these two titans at the gravitational center of things. And yet, as Pauper approaches what is sure to be a sea change moment, the current format has continued to evolve.
The last few weekends have seen Dimir Terror start to loosen its grip on the top of the meta, with decks like Jeskai Ephemerate and CawGate making a push for the top spot. Even though Dimir Terror was overall the best performing Top 32 deck this weekend, the spotlight should be focusing on another stalwart.
Skred, as Michael J. Flores would say, is a hell of a Magic card. For a single mana it has the capability of taking out threats that far exceed its cost. As the game goes long, Skred simply increases in power which is not often the case for spells with a mana value of one. Jeskai Ephemerate, despite its rather ambitious suite of lands, has managed to make good use of Skred as has Gruul Ramp. Izzet Faeries is starting to put itself back on the map (five total appearances Top 32 in the first four weeks of Tales of Middle-earth season; 4 such appearances last weekend) and that deck leans heavily on the Snow Plow to clear the way.
Skred is good at the moment because it allows for additional play after you cast it while not costing you much life. Unlike Snuff Out, Skred has no alternate cost but it also does not tax an additional resource. While the various renditions of red might not be at the top they are still relevant and having a cheap way to clear the path that does not get you closer to dead is pretty darn good. Skred also has the advantage of being able to take out Gurmag Angler and Tolarian Terror (albeit for three mana) but when those creatures both appear in the most popular deck, a spell that can take out either half of the duo demands notice.
Izzet Terror split the finals of the Saturday Challenge but it is a deck that made me sit up and take note. The addition of Lórien Revealed has made it easier to fix your mana while also fueling Tolarian Terror. The rest of the deck is a Izzet control shell that leans on the Monarch as a way to stay ahead on cards. This deck is poised to take off in a few days when both Cryptic Serpent and Sulfurous Blast can be slotted into the deck. Izzet Terror can easily play a “protect the crown” strategy to accumulate cards and win on the back of Terror, but could also pivot to Murmuring Mystic or Goblin Wizardry in the sideboard.
For next week I would look for a way to ignore Skred. CawGate with Guardian of the Guildpact fits the bill but do not sleep on Naya Gates as an option. Of course, there’s always Bogles as well.
A quick note about next week: I will be on vacation with my family and may not be able to post my usual weekly recap so do not be alarmed if it does not show up.
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