Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
We’re back!
Jokes aside, Pauper is entering an interstitial moment. All That Glitters is gone and Modern Horizons 3 is not yet here. The format exists in a metagame that is, for all intents and purposes, entirely temporary. While we can examine the data from this past weekend’s three Challenges to anticipate what Friday (and Saturday and Sunday) may bring. Attempting to prognosticate past June 14th is a waste of brain cells as the next direct to Modern release is all but guaranteed to shake things up (if history is any indication).
Here we have the overall Challenge metagame. Across the three events there were 163 entrants who played at least one round and aside from the absence of Glitter Affinity the metagame looks remarkably familiar. Kuldotha Red was the most popular archetype but hardly a dominant force by way of presence; Golgari Gardens managed to adjust quickly enough to maintain its position in the metagame.
There are a few things that stand out to me about this chart. First is the return of Gruul Cascade. This deck has been all but absent in the All That Glitters metagame which makes sense. A key play pattern of this deck is taking the opponent off of resources but when a top deck can operate on effectively no lands then this style of strategy can fall flat. The other element that really caught my eye was the relative meager showing of Grixis Affinity. The go-to Affinity deck before Commander Masters dropped off in a dramatic fashion once the aggressive builds came to bear, but it seems that for the time being people are shying away from such dedicated builds.
The Top 32 metagame has its own story to tell. Golgari Gardens had a strong performance once it reached the Top 8 but the strategy was more likely to end up outside the Top 16. Kuldotha Red fared better but not as well (albeit in limited sample size) as Dimir Faeries and Goblin Combo. And now we come to the rub about next week.
Given the relatively small sample size from last weekend, as well as the recent changes to the format, it is hard to pull too much information from the most recent trio of Challenges. The metagame in many ways looks entirely similar to the one we saw prior to the ban with the absence of Glitters pushing aggressive strategies down the ladder. Instead we are seeing a proliferation of combo and midrange decks. What can be extrapolated from this?
Next week I would want to be on a control deck. Counterspell and its ilk look incredibly well positioned at the moment, but housing it in a more reactive shell appears to be better. Outside of Kuldotha Red nothing is trying to kill you quickly. Trying to be a hair larger than midrange with an increased emphasis on interacting seems like a good place to be, especially if your opponents are trying to rely on that one key spell to ether things done.
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