May 27-28 Pauper Weekend Recap

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final is one I call True Volume, which takes the average of all three volumes (Actual, Win+, K-Win). This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance in the metagame.

May 27 and May 28 Pauper Challenge Top 32 Archetypes

Last week I made the note that current trends in the metagame were calling for a more versatile answer suite. I drew that conclusion in the wake of a rise in Faeries and shifts in the nature of red decks decks that could more easily adapt to the threats presented would perform well. This past weekend that seemed to be the case with three midrange decks – Black Gardens, Gruul Cascade, and Jeskai Ephemerate – all performing rather well. This continues the trend from last weekend where these decks started their ascent. But why now?

March of the Machine season began with a hesitancy around red and specifically the addition of Wrenn’s Resolve to the color’s repertoire and make no mistake, red continues to be good. However there are now multiple ways to play the deck – the more token focused Kuldotha Red and the more direct damage oriented Reckless Burn. While these both center on Lightning Bolt and Monastery Swiftspear they are fairly distinct strategies which in turn is leading to a more diverse looking metagame, at least at an archetype level. One can argue that these are just different takes on similar cores, but then again so are the various builds of Faeries (mono blue, Dimir, and Izzet).

So what does this have to do with midrange? It hinges, in a way, on Affinity. Affinity has long occupied the “control” role in the metagame even if it is not a true control deck. Thanks to Affinity’s robust card draw and long game engine it could easily outlast large swaths of the format. Recently the deck has adopted Somber Hoverguard for the first time in a long time, making it more susceptible to removal. As Affinity has become more vulnerable to the same spells that work against the rest of the metagame and the lower end of the meta – the aggressive strategies- diversify themselves, midrange decks have found an opportunity to occupy their traditional slot in an environment.

Midrange thrives when it can play the aggressive role against control and the control role against aggro. Since the metagame is making itself more susceptible to removal overall , midrange decks that pack answers have thrived. Black gardens and Jesaki Ephemerate make their bread by handling threats while a deck like Orzhov Ephemerate relies heavily on creatures. In this world, where midrange is taking the reigns, a deck like Gruul Cascade can emerge as a powerhouse since it attacks midrange at a weak point (their mana) while also having the opportunity to outclass opposing threats.

Next week I would be keen on trying to go under midrange. I am not all in on going back to the hyper aggression of red but a deck like Mono White Aggro, which is just large enough to roadblock red and Faeries while quick and resilient enough to beat up on black decks could find a lane. I would absolutely come with Ramosian Rally in this world because I’d want to be able to answer Breath Weapon out of Boros or Jeskai Ephemerate.

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May 20-21 Pauper Weekend Recap

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final is one I call True Volume, which takes the average of all three volumes (Actual, Win+, K-Win). This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance in the metagame.

May 20 and May 21 Pauper Challenge Top 32 archetypes

What does it mean to define a format? Any Magic format is by and large determined by the cards that are legal to play therein. A great number of cards automatically disqualify themselves due to rate or simply being outclassed. Merchant of Secrets comes to mind as a card that should not see competitive play since it is expensive for what it does and is obsoleted by a great many things. The point of all of this is to say that despite a massive cardpool any discrete Magic format is going to have some cards that simply should not see play.

Let’s go back to Invasion Block Constructed. With such a small card pool a powerhouse like Flametongue Kavu did a lot of work in setting the tone of gameplay, so much so that Hall of Famer Zvi Mowshowitz won the associated Pro Tour with maindeck copies of Galina’s Knight. Now this is not a treatise on the health of a format two decades gone but rather an example of what I am trying to get at. Creatures in that day needed to have an immediate impact lest they be rendered useless by FTK. You can run a similar exercise with any era and find the cards that help to shape the format, like Cut Down and Fable of the Mirror Breaker in current Standard. Cut Down places a restriction on what early drops are reasonable while Fable is one of the best things you can be doing in Standard.

What happens when the cards that define a format go too far? This is when things start to trend towards being warped. Let’s go back to Flametongue Kavu – if that persisted throughout its Standard reign to the point where the only other successful decks in the format were priced into running Galina’s Knight or creatures with five toughness that would have been a huge problem. Similarly one can look to CawBlade as a deck that contained several cards that not only defined their format, but completely warped Standard around them (and were subsequently banned).

So what does this have to do with Pauper? There has been a lot of talk over the better part of the past year as top whether or not red decks, supported heavily by Monastery Swiftspear, are warping the metagame. The recent results point to decks that have a strong red matchup as finding success. Even so I have long been of the mindset that red is not warping the Pauper meta but rather helping to define it. The line is close to be sure but rather than a format filled with decks that are running Galina’s Knight the format has adjusted to red’s place as the focal point of the metagame.

Bogles, Dimir Terror, Naya Gates, Faeries, and Black Gardens are all decks that are reasonable in their own right but also have a good matchup against red. Now it is possible that these decks, as currently constructed, would not have the same success if red were not as prevalent. That also presupposes that these decks would not adjust their builds to a different metagame – something that Bogles has been doing for years to be sure. The fact that the decks at the top of the format have good matchups against the most popular deck is not a symptom of something nefarious but part of the reality of a competitive metagame.

Now there is something else to consider. The examples I cited above came from time bound formats. Block Constructed would end with the release of a new block and Standard saw cards cycle out every year. Pauper is a non-rotating format so cards do not leave unless they are banned. This then gets to the question as to what is the threshold for banning a card (something I will not be getting into today) but something to consider is the pressure the red decks are putting on Pauper. While red is largely contained from a metagame perspective, there is no doubt that the ceiling of red’s draws exert a great influence on what sort of strategies are viable long term. That there are several decks finding success that lean heavily on taplands indicate that at the moment there are ways to come back from behind against red.

So where does that leave things with actually playing Pauper? Red continues to be popular but at the moment Faeries sees more play and is having more success, as has been the case for some time. Early removal remains at a premium but as Kuldotha Rebirth has given way to Kessig Flamebreather in red, sweepers have gone down in value. It looks like the format is primed for a reevaluation of removal. Suffocating Fumes seems like a larger risk in the wake of Ninja of the Deep Hours and so the rise of Jeskai Ephemerate, with its access to recurring removal and Fiery Cannonade/Breath Weapon seems to be the way to go fora versatile answer to the current threats being presented in the format.

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May 13-14 Pauper Weekend Recap

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final is one I call True Volume, which takes the average of all three volumes (Actual, Win+, K-Win). This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance in the metagame.

May 13 Showcase, May 13 and May 14 Challenge Top 32 archetypes

There were three challenge level Pauper events on Magic Online this past weekend. There are a lot of threads to tie together from the tournaments so I am going to do my best to break down the highlights.

The Red Decks

I think we have to start at the most glaring thing about the last weekend, and that is the relatively poor performance of the various red decks. These builds tend all feature Monastery Swiftspear, Experimental Synthesizer, Reckless Impulse, and Wrenn’s Resolve. These decks have largely defined the metagame since March of the Machine hit the scene. Combined these archetypes had a cumulative three wins above at X-2 or above across the three events with no Top 8s.

A few things seem to have happened. First, there is not a consensus on the best build of red for the current metagame. Some decks continue to run Kuldotha Rebirth while others have shifted off of metalcraft in favor of Kessig Flamebreather and Thermo-Alchemist. This weekend also saw the return of Dwarven Forge-Chanter to the fold in the archetype listed above as Red Prowess. Each of these builds is vulnerable to different interaction which means that reading the metagame to determine which red deck is ascendant will be a valuable skill moving forward. For the record, I think Kuldotha Red is best next week given how many copies of Chainer’s Edict were running around last weekend.

Both Bogles and Dimir Terror had great weekends and these are two decks that are traditionally good against red. The ability to present a large creature that can pick up lifelink can make life difficult for Lighting Bolt decks. These decks are powerful options that hold up well against red and have the ability to “just win” on the back of their difficult to answer threats.

The Heirs to Gary

Another thread from the weekend was the relatively strong performance of black based midrange. Both Black Gardens and Orzhov Ephemerate had respectable performances. These decks thrive on matching up their removal to the perceived metagame and lean heavily on Chainer’s Edict – a card that can do quite well against Bogles and Dimir Terror. Edict is also much better against the non-Kuldotha rebirth versions of red which just so happened to be the more popular red archetype in the winner’s metagame from last weekend. Both Black Gardens and Orzhov Ephemerate have access to life gain which help their prospects against the more assertive decks in the metagame. Still both can struggle against a strong Faeries draw or decks with powerful recursive Ephemerate engines in the vein of Azorius Familiars or Flicker Tron.

The Sky is Blue

The two best decks on the weekend were Faeries and Dimir Terror. The ability to just say no with Counterspell remains powerful. Faeries put a cap on its fantastic first four weeks with another four trips to the Top 8 with a win for good measure. Dimir Terror had the same number of Top 8s but no win in the same number of Top 32 finishes, but it picked up two additional Swiss wins along the way. Both of these decks ended up with over 12% of the True Volume (only Bogles did better with almost 14% thanks to an 11-0 run in the Showcase).

These decks represent two different approaches to Counterspell strategies. Faeries wants to stick and early threat and protect their advantage while Dimir Terror wants to slow the game down until it can stick a 5/5 and ride that to victory. I believe that moving forward these are the best executions of Counterspell given the current metagame considerations with Faeries having an edge next week in the face of removal. That being said it is not difficult for Dimir Terror to add more fodder in the form of Augur of Bolas, Fallaji Archaeologist, or even Rotten Reunion.

So what does this mean for next weekend? I think the Kudoltha Rebirth versions of red will be the best choice in that regard and give the various black midrange deck some fits unless they can adjust their composition without giving up too much against the rest of the metagame. Faeries will continue to be well positioned but could take a hit if people move back to Suffocating Fumes and Electrickery. Bogles probably won’t have as strong of a showing as people will absolutely try to catch Chainer’s Edict lightning in a bottle. With all of this in mind I would want to be packing Sacred Cat and Basilisk Gate. Whether that’s an established CawGate or Naya Gates build, or one of the up-and-coming variants remains, a resilient threat that has the ability to both gain a chunk of life and end the game is exactly what I want in my deck these days.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

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May 6-7 Pauper Weekend Recap

I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final is one I call True Volume, which takes the average of all three volumes (Actual, Win+, K-Win). This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance in the metagame.

May 6 and May 7 Top 32 archetypes

Let’s get one story out of the way: after the May 6 and May 7 Pauper Challenges it is fairly clear that Reckless Burn is the more popular stripe of aggressive red deck in the current metagame. It was incredibly popular in both tournaments and ended up with a full 25% of Top 32 slots. In turn this has made it looks worse in some regards as its popularity has ensured a decent number of these decks ended up with a X-3 record. So let’s take another step back and look at the first six events of March of the Machine weekend.

In that span Reckless Red is the second most popular archetype with 24 Top 32 appearances, 6 Top 8s, and 2 wins. It has a pretty solid Win+ ratio of 0.71, meaning it trends towards a Top 16 finish. It’s K-Score average of 1.96 tells a similar story – you can reasonably expect Reckless Red to make the Top 16 and as approximately three out of every 16 Top 8 decks get to the finish line with a X-2 record, you can expect a similar rate of Top 8s out of Reckless Red. The long and short of it is this: if you are aiming for the top tables of the Pauper Challenges you need to be prepared for Reckless Burn.

But it is only the second most popular archetype this season – Faeries comes in first with 25 total appearances thus far. It has a slightly better Win+ ratio (0.84) and K-Win average (2.04). It has six Top 8s as well, but no Challenge wins yet. I want to come back to this datum later, so let’s put a pin in it for now.

So what is going on with Reckless Burn? Like so much of Pauper’s history the current battle is being fought with yesterday’s technology. Take, for example, Suffocating Fumes. This card has absolutely earned its spot in the maindeck as a flexible way to answer hordes of small creatures like those deployed by Faeries or that sprout forward as a result of a Kuldotha Rebirth. But against a deck like Reckless Burn it fails to do anything of note. In certain metagames a card like Suffocating Fumes can absolutely be worth a slot (and to be frank, it probably still is worth a card today) but when key cards in the opposition have three toughness it starts to look silly.

1st place, May 7
Top 8, May 6

I think it’s important to look at the two Black Gardens lists that performed well this weekend. Both leaned into life gain with Spinning Darkness and Pulse of Murasa, while opting to use Crypt Rats as their sweeper of choice. Crypt Rats has the advantage of scaling and when backed up with enough lifegain it can clear out tokens and Thermo-Alchemists alike. I am not saying we are moving into a stage where Crypt Rats and Pestilence are the panacea for the format but they remain options that have largely been held to the fringes as of late.

Now to pick up the thread I left before about Reckless Red and Faeries, I think it’s interesting to note that only one of these decks gets a ton of ire in the discourse. It is quite possible that over the next few weeks Reckless Red will overtake Faeries and this little denouement will look foolish, but it is something that’s been tickling the back of my brain for a while. Blue being good in Pauper is not surprising since it is a high power non-rotating format. Blue is supposed to be good. Red, well, maybe not.

Being clear – red has gotten a ton of tools in the past few years and has seen its power level pushed quite a bit. And the fact that red’s reign is coming right on the heels of Affinity’s stay at the top can be seen as evidence there is something amiss with overall format health and some action needs to be taken. I for one am interested to see if this new brand of Red has the staying power of the previous iteration.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

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April 29-30 Pauper Weekend Recap

April 29 and April 30 Challenge Top 32

We are now into the second week of March of the Machine season and the new metagame is started to round into shape. While things may look similar is some regards the top of the format is shifting in a way that could have a cascading impact.

Let’s start with Red. While Monastery Swiftspear is still leading the charge, Kuldotha Red – the deck that leans on artifact synergy and Kuldotha Rebirth – has taken a backseat. It is not that the deck is bad, per se, but Wrenn’s Resolve has given the color another opportunity to grind. The result is Reckless (or Impulsive) Burn, a build that leans more on Thermo-Alchemist and Kessig Flamebreather to plink away at a life total. It wants to build its own Grapeshot kill, but over several turns instead of several. Reckless Burn had a rather absurd weekend as it asserted itself, with three Top 8 finishes in six total Top 32 appearances, taking down both Challenges. It had an average finish firmly in the Top 16 (1.33 Win+ average) and with a K-Win average of 3.5, it split the difference between Top 8 and Top 16. Make no mistake – the face of red has changed.

Azorius Familiars was the second most popular deck but potentially suffered as a result. The strategy has always been strong but never popular, yet Meeting of the Minds has made the deck more accessible to a wider population of players. It had a very respectable two Top 8 finishes in eight total Top 32 placings and a Win+ average of 0.63, meaning it is trending towards the Top 16. It is just a far cry from it’s 0.97 Win+ average during Phyrexia season. So what gives? Chances are with more people playing the deck it has more opportunities to lose, but also given that it is now much more on the radar and showing up more in leagues, more players may be figuring out how to beat the strategy. Familiars is still a very good option and I don’t believe it will stay mired in relative mediocrity for long.

The rest of the top tier should look familiar. Faeries has been on an absolute tear since adopting a more assertive stance. Grixis Affinity is not going anywhere either as the strength of the machine is too much to deny. I would also keep an eye on Bogles. In a metagame where decks are trying to enact their gameplan as quickly as possible, Bogles can slip between the cracks and steal wins.

The big edge one can get in this metagame is properly picking your removal. Cards like Lightning Bolt may go up in value as they can pick off key pieces of both of the creature based combo decks (Reckless Burn, Familiars) at the top of the metagame while not being entirely dead against Faeries. This could leave an opening for decks like WonderWalls, Bogles, or even Elves to make a case for themselves provided the focus shifts to these pseudo-combo builds.

Another path is to lean on Battle Screech, or rather decks where Battle Screech is at its best. Soul Sisters – a mono white token deck using Soul Warden and Soul’s Attendant – can gain enough life to stabilize against both Red and Faeries. If the strategy can figure out a way to beat Familiars consistently it could make itself a true threat.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons – both old and new. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1 and every little bit helps.

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