Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles season has just finished its second weekend of Challenges. The first Paupergeddon of 2026 is right around the corner. The latest set dropped the the format is still dealing with the ripple effects and while the format has regressed to the mean somewhat, things still look different compared to this time last month.

The conversation this week has to start with Madness Burn. Over the first eight Challenges of TMNT season the strategy has emerged as the top deck in Pauper. In 32 appearances in the Top 32, it has made Top 8 nearly 44% of the time with 14 such trips (including one win). It is averaging just about a Top 16 finish and it’s 12.5% Top 32 volume looks paltry compared to its 15.67% Winner’s Metagame share. As of writing it is averaging 1.25 wins more than an average Top 32 finisher. While red decks tend to be over represented on Magic Online it would be a dereliction of duty to ignore the strategy heading into this weekend.
Madness Burn is all about force multiplication. Kessig Flamebreather and Guttersnipe add damage to each burn spell and it does not take much to turn a single Lava Dart into two Fireblasts worth of damage. Sneaky Snacker fills a similar role to the red creatures in that it turns the downside of Grab the Prize and Highway Robbery into more damage. A consistent turn four deck, a single burst of life gain is not enough to buy time here as Madness Burn can easily deal 30 damage before the end of turn six.

Attacking Madness Burn is about more than just surviving, it’s about having your own proactive plan. Mono White Aggro seems well positioned to this task with Lunarch Veteran. That the deck also comes with a quick clock makes it more than a reasonable choice going into this weekend. While it has fallen a bit from last week’s position it is still a strong choice that has out up six Top 8 finishes and a win over the first eight Challenges.
Taking these two decks into account, as well as the second best deck currently (Elves) and you have a format that is currently defined by creatures. Elves and Mono White go wide and both have the ability to survive Breath Weapon and Arms of Hadar. While Madness Burn does not want to win by attacking it still needs its creatures to apply maximum pressure. This should position both black and red board control options as viable metagame gambles. The question about dealing with three toughness creatures persist.

If you’ve subscribed to my Patreon you know I’ve been experimenting with a solution to the three toughness problem for more than a week and the results are promising. Sulfurous Blast is slower than Breath Weapon but it makes up for this lack of speed with wiping out far more creatures in the format. It also has the capability to deal the final three points of damage (yes I did win a game with the world’s most expensive Chain Lightning) and can double as an expensive Breath Weapon if there are no Kor Skyfishers or Utrom Monitors to be seen.
The question then becomes what is the best shell for Blast. It needs to be in a deck that can survive to cast the spell while also not destroying its own board. The deck would need to also not roll over to early threats so access to other defensive measures are of the utmost importance. It is not outside the realm of possibility to imagine a Basilisk Gate deck dipping heavily into red to support Sulfurous Blast while also leaning on Guarding of the Guildpact to win the long game. After all, the Blast only takes out one half of Sacred Cat.

Power Rankings
Dropped from rankings: CawGate, Dredge
10. Gruul Ramp
9. Dimir Terror (Not Ranked)
8. Jund Wildfire
7. Grixis Affinity (-1)
6. Bogles (-1)
5. Spy Walls (Not Ranked)
4. Blue Terror
3. Mono White Aggro
2. Elves (-1)
1. Madness Burn (+1)
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