Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
It’s been one week.
One week of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and in those days the metagame has shifted quite a bit. Now I am always one to preach that one week does not define a season but it has been quite a long time since the first week of a new season looked so drastically different from the weeks that came before. I won’t lie, it’s kind of nice to see things change.
It has been quite a while since Blue Terror wasn’t a top three most popular archetype on the weekend. I cannot remember the last time a non-red aggressive deck took that spot. Mono White Aggro, like death and taxes, will never go away. But this week, it asserted itself as a force moving forward.
As mentioned last week, Leonardo, Big Brother, has given Mono White a shot in the arm. The deck is already well equipped to make use of enters-the-battlefield effects thanks to Kor Skyfisher and the latest addition provides that effect while also piling on the damage. The new card gives Mono White another damage engine outside of force multipliers like Guardians’ Pledge. As seen with Madness Burn providing established assertive strategies additional sources of damage pushes them up the metagame ladder. While it was the most popular strategy, Mono White lagged behind both Elves and Madness burn in Adjusted Meta Score Above replacement (0.91 to 1.44 and 1.18 respectively) and in Winner’s Meta Share (11.36% compared to 11.8% and 11.49%), but that doesn’t detract from its meteoric rise from “fringe contender” to “top strategy”.
When we are talking about the top three decks from the last weekend we really are splitting hairs. Madness Burn had the best Top 32 to Top 8 conversion rate and the lone win while Elves had the best cumulative Swiss and overall records. All three of these decks are assertive in that they want to establish the rules of engagement and all have a Fundamental Turn that hovers around four (meaning that, uncontested, they will win by that turn). This presents a conundrum for midrange and control strategies.
While all three of these decks want to apply pressure they all do so in extremely different ways. A Moment’s Peace can buy you plenty of time against Mono White but is lacks the same utility against Elves and Madness Burn. Weather the Storm may buy you a turn or two against red but matters little else in the face of Leonardo or Nyxborn Hydra. Even Fiery Cannonade is struggling in a world where there are so many creatures with three toughness. Slower decks are going to have to get creative but I am not sure where they can turn to control the board since Toxin Analysis and Crypt Rats is ponderously slow and Krark-Clan Shaman does nothing against Battle Screech tokens.
And that’s not all. Tolarian Terror decks are still lurking in the Top 5 and Grixis Affinity is finding its way despite the scarcity of Utrom Monitor. The format is unsettled for the first time in a long time and that’s not a bad thing as it provides opportunity for new strategies and tech to emerge. One list that caught my eye this weekend because of innovation (and not success) is one I am dubbing Thorn Faeries. It takes your typical Mono Blue Faeries list but adds Contaminated Aquifer for Cast Down, Snuff Out, and Thorn of the Black Rose. It’s a tempo take on Dimir Faeries that lacks the control elements but I worry it lacks the closing power of the more typical Dimir builds and the consistency of mono blue.
Looking ahead I would want to be trying to slow the game down. Figuring out how to handle Burn, Elves, and White while not faltering against the rest of the format will be key moving forward. It could be CawGates (and similar decks’) time to shine again with Prismatic Strands, or maybe accelerating into a sweeper will actually pay off this time. What do you think? What are you going to be playing in the Leagues and Challenges this weekend?
Power Rankings
Dropped from rankings: Faeries, Golgari Gardens, Rally Red
10. Gruul Ramp (Not Ranked)
9. Dredge
8. Jund Wildfire
7. CawGate
6. Grixis Affinity (-4)
5. Bogles (Not Ranked)
4. Blue Terror (-3)
3. Mono White Aggro (Not Ranked)
2. Madness Burn (+2)
1. Elves (+5)
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