Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Another weekend of Pauper Challenges on Magic Online, another Sunday wondering just how good Blue Terror is. The deck has resided at the top of the Pauper food chain for quite some time and things aren’t looking to change any time soon. This weekend’s record helps to illuminate just how consistent the deck can be, with a K-Score average of 2 meaning the mean finish was one win over a break even record (4-2, for example). Blue Terror also had the best average Swiss record and the most Top 8s over the four events. But there is more to this deck than the record. Blue Terror is unique in the current Pauper metagame due in part to its design.
Blue Terror is a pure expression of a Tolarian Terror strategy. The deck, while perhaps not the only shell for the 5/5, provides one of the most consistent builds for putting it into play with protection. Dimir Terror exists but hardly has the same pedigree, and Izzet builds with the Terror pop up infrequently. Blue Terror is able to churn through the library to resolve cheap threats, all while having perfect mana to keep the opponent off balance. True removal is unwarranted as Sleep of the Dead or Deem Inferior do a fine job of clearing a path; why bother removing a creature forever if the opponent is just going to take lethal?
Compare this to the other strategic pillars of Pauper. If you want to reap the benefits of Artifact Lands you can run Grixis Affinity but you also have the option of Jund Wildfire. While Grixis has better numbers this season Jund is a far cry from a fringe player. Jund also has crossover with Golgari Gardens (and its derivatives) for removal based midrange decks. Interested in flinging Lightning Bolts at your adversary’s life total? There are three different mono red decks putting up results, not counting Rakdos Madness. Elves might be ascendant at the moment but if hypermana creature combo is your thing there’s always Spy Walls lingering in the shadows. All of this is to say that yes, Blue Terror is a good deck, but it also does not have other similar options peeling off potential pilots from its win share.
While this is all well and good from a theoretical standpoint it does not change the fact that Blue Terror has reasserted itself at the top of the metagame. Trying to defeat it means understand where the deck is at its weakest. It does struggle with a battlefield flooded with creatures as its removal is slow and far from permanent. Speaking of creatures, its cheap counters often miss that card type entirely – you can’t Spell Pierce a Kor Skyfisher after all. Blue Terror is, at its core, a tempo deck that wants to keep the opponent off balance before turning the corner to win. Stability in game plan – that is a deck with redundant cheap pieces that can be deployed around Terror’s defenses – can go a long way towards eating into some of that win share.
This can be both stifling and liberating. The format exists with very real parameters – can you get around Terror’s permission while surviving Red’s onslaught? Can you keep pace with the grind of Affinity and Gardens? Are you okay Just Losing to a combo deck? At the same time these parameters give plenty of room to iterate. Innovation might be a challenge, but refining current builds or expanding on existing cores can go a long way towards finding an edge.
In my job I often have to transition between supervising and advising different groups of students. The difference is subtle, but it exists. Supervising involves more guidance and instruction as to the job and rules. It is all about establishing the boundaries of acceptable and giving direction. Advising is when the group has an understanding of what they need to do and I exist more as a sounding board for their ideas. Translating this to the metagame, when something is established you can’t rewrite the rules of engagement but rather you have to figure out the ways to nudge things in your favor. Advising over supervising. Understand the flow of the metagame instead of trying to brute force it.
Power Rankings
Dropped from rankings: None
10. Rakdos Madness
9. Madness Burn
8. Jund Wildfire (-3)
7. CawGate (-1)
6. Faeries (-1)
5. Elves (-2)
4. Rally Red
3. Golgari Gardens (+4)
2. Grixis Affinity (-1)
1. Blue Terror (+1)
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