Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
It is tough to explain how excited I was for Lorwyn Eclipsed. The first half of the original Lorwyn block captivated me with its art and whimsy while Shadowmoor and Eventide include some of my all time favorite cards. A return to the plane, however abbreviated, had me eager to open packs. And open I did, because for the first time since Return to Ravnica I participated in a Two-Headed Giant prerelease event. I got to play Magic with my kid, a memory I am going to cherish for as long as I have it.
The set itself is amazing. The cards are beautiful and the mechanics play well. Lorwyn Eclipsed is fun. I’ve acquired plenty of cards for my various Commander decks and look forward to seeing them on the table for many months to come. When it comes to Pauper, however, the set is largely lacking. As of now only one card – Burning Inquiry – has seen regular play and that is in an archetype that, for the time being, is just on the right side of the competitive metagame – Ruby Storm.
Lorwyn Eclipsed is a set based largely around creature types – Elemental, Elves, Goblins, Kithkin, and Merfolk. Historically two of these – Elves and Goblins – have been viable kindred strategies. Given the large card pool, however, it takes quite a strong card to muscle its way into the regular Pauper rotation. Given that a pushed kindred common can wreak havoc on limited (just ask anyone who had to play against Sparksmith or Timberwatch Elf or Silvergill Douser), it makes sense that Lorwyn Eclipsed would have slim pickings for the format.
The result is a format that feels largely similar to the one played during Avatar: The Last Airbender season. While Ruby Storm has made its presence felt the top decks from the past two weeks look remarkably similar to those from months before. This is the resting state of a non-rotating format, but it can feel rather strange if one came to Pauper in the past five years. The snowball that began with Vintage and Modern Masters that grew into the avalanche of Commander Masters and Modern Horizons has dissipated. After half a decade of the format getting jostled every few months, the commons released have regressed to their mean. The result is a format that evolves slowly, giving the metagame time to settle.
The early going in Lorwyn Eclipsed season sees four decks all within about two percentage points of each other in the Winner’s Metagame. Grixis Affinity returns to the top of my Power Rankings. The midrange metalcraft deck has put up solid numbers in the first two weeks and has the capability to out-grind many other decks in the field. Blue Terror takes a step back, falling to the number two spot. The aggro-control deck is still a powerhouse but likely has been hurt by the increased presence of the third deck in the standings.
Elves has emerged as the most popular deck thus far, but trails both Blue Terror and Grixis Affinity by one Top 8 (six for Elves against seven each for the other two). Rally Red takes the fourth position, also with six Top 8 finishes. Taken as a whole the tor four decks can be seen as Midrange Control (Affinity), Aggro-Control (Terror), Creature Combo (Elves) and Aggro (Red).
This is a good spread for the top of any format. While “true control” (a Platonic ideal if ever there was one) may be absent that has more to do with the varied nature of Pauper than the lack of good options. Control decks thrive in highly established metagames when the answers line up well with threats. Despite Lorwyn Eclipsed being a continuation of Avatar, the ways people are trying to win matches of Pauper remain diverse. The lack of clean counterplay that can deal with a wide array of victory conditions. This has been a hallmark of Pauper and I do not see that changing anytime soon.
If I were playing this weekend I would probably speculate on the success of a midrange black deck. I would want something more assertive than a Gardens variant and would emphasize effects like Chainer’s Edict and Tithing Blade, while looking at Moment of Craving and other cheap removal options to try and survive. I would almost certainly be giving up ground to Grixis Affinity but believe you can build such a deck to have game against the other three top decks. This is just the way of things: there is no solution, so you take the wins where you can, understanding that you can’t win them all.
Power Rankings
Dropped from rankings: Spy Walls
10. Rakdos Madness (-8)
9. Madness Burn (-5)
8. Jund Wildfire (-3)
7. Golgari Gardens (+3)
6. CawGate
5. Faeries (Not Ranked)
4. Rally Red (+5)
3. Elves (+4)
2. Blue Terror (-1)
1. Grixis Affinity (+1)
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