The Tide Has Rolled Out

The Pauper Metagame After the High Tide Ban

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

High Tide, once more, finds itself on the Pauper ban list. Normally in the wake of such a change we would have to wait a few weeks to see how the metagame would adjust. Lucky for us, Magic Online was running a week of Pauper events. The result is six tournaments worth of data to give us a solid impression of the metagame before moving into Avatar: The Last Airbender season.

The removal of High Tide from Pauper resulted in a slight format correction. Spell based combo is a tricky beast given the card pool as the ways to handle a win off the top are few and far between. Pauper lacks the tools other formats have to fight such decks, notably powerful discard and tax effects. Much of the interaction used to stymie spell based combo comes in the form of countermagic, which is concentrated in blue. True to form, it was Islands that performed the best during the final weeks of High Tide. While the combo deck was in the top 5 of the format, Blue Terror led the way. It took down 23 Top 8s for a stellar 25.56% conversion rate from Top 32 to the elimination rounds. The deck also won four Challenge level events and had the best Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement with 1.02 (the next best deck in this metric was Madness Burn at 0.69).

Now don’t get me wrong – the absence of High Tide combo doesn’t suddenly mean Blue Terror is bad, but it has allowed the format to adjust to its absence. High Tide attacked Pauper at an angle that was almost entirely perpendicular to the rest of the format. It avoided creatures and did not utilize the graveyard much, if at all. Compare this to almost every other deck that is currently successful. They use the graveyard to reduce the cost of the creatures or store threats for later. The resulting metagame is one that looks rather familiar but has some key differences.

Midrange has come back in force. While it was never really dead (Jund Wildfire had 17 Top 8s in the same span as Blue Terror’s 23), the strategy struggled to establish any variety in the world with High Tide. In the six events from last week, non-black midrange decks – specifically CawGate – have reestablished themselves. Skewing more assertive, Mono White Aggro has also seen a surge. What gives?

For the time being I believe we are entering a Thraben Charm metagame. The absence of High Tide has made it so creatures matter again but also has pushed Balustrade Spy to the front as the most popular combo option. The Spy decks in Pauper almost always come with a pivot away from the graveyard, allowing them to turn creatures sideways and win with Sagu Wildling or another limited role player. Slots are precious and given the diversity of the Pauper metagame the ability to dedicate sideboard space for cards that can turn a matchup around are a priority. Thraben Charm may not be the best creature removal spell or way to target a graveyard, but the fact that it can do both is massive.

Every card you decide to run comes at the expense of other options. The opportunity cost may be negligible but it absolutely exists. Thraben Charm can help to mitigate that cost in decks that can support its creature removal mode. The Charm is not as reliable as a true kill spell or even a Journey to Nowhere, but it makes up for that lack by being able to absolutely wreck a graveyard.

Moving into Avatar season you have to come prepared for Thraben Charm strategies. it is not that they are dominant but rather they are present, and the versatility of the card presents a problem for decks that might want to attack the metagame from right angles such as Bogles or Spy Combo.

Outside of Thraben Charm, I am also very bullish on Crypt Rats and Pestilence. Being able to apply pressure to your opponent’s board development while also holding your finger over an “I Win” button is powerful. Given my excitement over Thraben Charm you might be surprised to hear I would not par the instant with the board wipes in a Guardian of the Guildpact deck. The fact is I think the stalwart spirit is a bit too slow these days to run more than a copy or two at most. While the ability to punch through still matters quite a bit the fact that Writhing Chrysalis can eat it for breakfast, lunch, dinner, and fourth meal, means the opportunity cost of a two power four drop is too dang high. That being said I think there is a build of Orzhov Pestilence out there that could find a lane.

Power Rankings

Last check in: October 24-26
Dropped from rankings: High Tide (Banned), Azorius Familiars, Gruul Ramp, Rakdos Madness
10. Mono White Aggro (Not Ranked)
9. Elves
8. Dimir Faeries
7. Madness Burn
6. Grixis Affinity (-2)
5. Golgari Gardens (Not Ranked)
4. Blue Terror (-3)
3. Spy Walls (Not Ranked)
2. CawGate (Not Ranked)
1. Jund Wildfire (+1)

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