Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Two weeks into the Spider-Man/Through the Omenpaths season and things are starting to take shape. Of course the shape of the format bears more than a passing resemblance to the end of Edge of Eternities, which in turn looked awfully similar to the final days of FINAL FANTASY. Considering Pauper is a non-rotating format with a massive card pool this phenomena isn’t that much of an outlier, but it still warrants some discussion.
Like many other non-rotating formats, Pauper has been at the whim of sets that have bypassed standard. The Modern Horizons trio have had an outsized influence on the makeup of the metagame and the basic land cyclers from The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth continue to hold manabases together with duct tape and a dream. These sets were printed directly into Modern, which means they could have a higher power level. It would make sense that these cards would have a wider impact. Universes Beyond – the sets that take place outside the Magic multiverse were supposed to skip Standard which in turn gave a faint glimmer of hope that Pauper could experience some more regular churn.
Pauper is almost always in a tenuous balance between a stable and a stagnant metagame. Once a card file becomes fully integrated into the format, things settle until the next release. Occasionally a Standard level release would inject life into an archetype or bring something entirely new to the table, but more often than not such shifts came with sets designed with larger formats in mind. Universes Beyond, initially, was a boon in that it promised regular infusions of stronger options. Regardless of the realm which the cards came from, the hope was for game play that could would be novel more often.
But now Universes Beyond passes through Standard. And there are more Standard legal releases than ever. While this means more potential options to shake up Pauper that is not the likely outcome. Pauper is more likely to get additional role players than cards that spawn new archetypes or change the nature of existing decks. As a result things are largely going to feel the same from cycle to cycle, even if there is new art for a given effect.
It feels like, these days, if you are critiquing some element of the 2026 release schedule you’re not really speaking to the Magic audience. The folks I feel most for are people who enjoy and engage with Standard as their format is set to develop at a pace that has not yet been seen. For me, I just wish we had more time with each set and world. Iterating on mechanical themes gave chance for one or two to slip through and while we still see cross set synergy, things don’t often fit together nearly as well.
As for the Pauper of today, Blue Terror remains a terror. It was far and away the best performing deck on the weekend. Jund Wildfire, despite a pair of Top 8 finishes, actually performed worse than the average Top 32 deck with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of -0.27. Don’t worry – other format staples such as High Tide (-0.34) also found themselves in the red. I never place too much stock in a single week, especially in a cycle when not much has changed. If anything I would be working towards trying to have a good matchup against Blue Terror and figuring out the rest from there. I would also be keen on having a strong defensive game considering the rise in both Aristocrats and Madness Burn over the past week.
Power Rankings
10. Spy Walls
9. Faeries (Not Ranked)
8. High Tide (-5)
7. Elves (-3)
6. Rally Red
5. Madness Burn (+4)
4. Grixis Affinity (+1)
3. Aristocrats (+4)
2. Jund Wildfire (-1)
1. Blue Terror (+1)
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