The Edge of Eternities Pauper Season Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Six weeks is a long time to go between Pauper recaps. So what happened? In a word, life. Not that this is the most riveting content in the world but I figured that you, reader, might want a tiny bit of insight as to what’s been going on.

Normally the end of August into the start of September is the busiest time of year for my work. This year we are down a person in our office but have no less work to do which puts additional pressure on those who remain. Couple that with a child starting second grade, the holidays, and follow up medical visits from my procedure back in May and you have a recipe for something hitting the back burner.

And truth be told, sometimes I just need a break. I’ve still been writing on this blog and started to dabble in making some Commander videos just to flex different muscles. But every so often I need to take a step back from Pauper to gain some perspective. This time that was about six weeks. But now that I’m going to be looking at pictures of Spider-Man…I mean traversing the Omenpaths… it’s time to dive back in.

There were eight weekends of Challenges in the Edge of Eternities season. There were eight decks which cleared the 5% threshold for volume of Top 32 presence and I’ll be taking a look at some those strategies today. That being said there are two decks who did not meet that threshold that are worth mentioning.

The first is Aristocrats or Black Sac. A strategy near and dear to my heart this deck got a boost in the form of Perigee Beckoner as two copies of the card can go infinite with a sacrifice outlet. This deck is just a pile of creatures that replace themselves and while is quite literally greater than the sum of its parts. Why talk about a deck that clocked in at under 2.75% of the Top 32 metagame over the season? Because it over performed by quite a bit in the back half of the season. Two wins in the last four weeks of Edge of Eternities season and an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 0.42 – second best over that span – means that this list should be one on your radar for the next season.

Spy Walls is the latest Pauper take on the infamous “Oops, All Spells!” strategy, except the Pauper version needs to run actual lands. While this deck has been around for quite some time (and previous versions ran a single land), the latest versions run between four and five lands and have also added other mana engines – whether they be Elves or Walls based. This deck got a lot of press at the start of the season as a powerful combo deck that was applying a ton of pressure to the metagame. The numbers are unclear, as the Walls version ended up as the seventh best archetype based on Winner’s Meta share and third best on AMSAR. However, in the final four weeks the strategy dropped to 16th in Winner’s Meta volume and AMSAR (with a score of -0.06, performing slightly behind an average Top 32 deck). Again, this is a deck to be on the lookout for but it appears as if the metagame has adjusted to its presence.

There are two different varieties of red decks that saw success during Edge of Eternities season. Rally Red – a low to the ground aggressive deck that can chain Burning-Tree Emissary into Rally at the Hornburg to swing in for damage immediately. This style of deck is nothing new to Pauper as it has similar play patterns to previous Goblin Bushwhacker decks. Rally Red acquired six Top 8s and a win out of 46 trips to the Top 32. Overall Rally ended up with 4.23% of the Winner’s Metagame (down from 5.68% of the Top 32 meta) and its AMSAR score of -0.01 tells us the strategy was decidedly average over the course of eight weeks.

Compare this to Madness Burn. This deck wants to leverage Grab the Prize with Fiery Temper and Sneaky Snacker to ignore downsides while piling on the damage with Guttersnipe. Whereas Rally Red wants to turn creatures sideways, Madness Burn wants to point spells directly at the opponent’s dome. The deck holds a respectable 14 Top 8 finishes (including a win) in 61 Top 32 appearances. With 7.48% of the Winner’s Metagame (and 7.53% of the Top 32 meta), and an AMSAR of 0.29, Madness Burn looks to be the slightly better red option moving forward.

Let’s take a moment to talk about red’s position in the metagame. As we will see down the way, blue is a dominant force in the metagame. Having access to eight Blast effects gives the deck a fighting chance to win stack battles. Being well positioned against blue is important and the fact that both of these decks can go over the top of other strategies bodes well for them long term. If I had to pick one to be bullish on it would be the more direct burn version as it has slightly better counterplay to Weather the Storm and other lifegain.

Jund Wildfire remains a stalwart of the Pauper metagame. The deck has cemented itself as the go-to midrange strategy in the format and has the results to back up how frequently it is played. Jund racked up 21 trips to the Top 8 with three wins in 92 Top 32 finishes. At 11.36% of the Top 32 metagame and 10.04% of the Winner’s metagame, if you play in an event you are likely to run into Jund at some point. An ASMAR of 0.36 puts it on the podium for the bronze on that metric and the deck continues to evolve. This season so the widespread adoption of Gixian Infiltrator as yet another threat that get large that also happens to dodge Snuff Out.

Blue Terror was the best deck on the season and it wasn’t even close. It was at the top of the AMSAR standings in five of the eight weekends and closed the season with a score of 1.09 – 0.63 better than second place. How many Top 8s? Three dozen. How many wins? Seven. 15.45% of the Winner’s Metagame are numbers that no other deck in the format can match. And it makes sense. Blue Terror can stick a massive threat early and protect it with countermagic, which has long been a winning strategy in Pauper. This is just one of the reasons those blasts out of the red decks are so valuable, but also why flooding the board with pesky tokens can buy the time needed to win the game.

Hide Tide combo, by my estimation, is the second performing deck in the format. Based on AMSAR (0.43) and the delta between Winner’s Meta Share (8.59%) and Top 32 meta share (7.41%), it comes in behind Blue Terror and nothing else. Nineteen Top 8s and a pair of wins are no slouch either. Despite not being as popular as some of the other strategies available High Tide continues to put up rather strong numbers and continues to increase its metashare, especially as it comes to the winner’s side of things. At the same time the deck is becoming less popular. The deck has established itself as one of the best options in Pauper if your goal is to win.

What about the next release? While there are cards that have piqued my interest for niche strategies it does not seem that anything will shake up the top of the standings. Mono White midrange aggressive strategies get a new tool which can tussle in the red zone while Gruul Ramp now have access to a piece of ramp that has the potential to do some damage. Still, I do not anticipate the format to look drastically different in the coming weeks.

Power Rankings

10. Rakdos Madness (Not Ranked)
9. Elves (-6)
8. Aristocrats (NR)
7. Spy Walls (-5)
6. Grixis Affinity (+4)
5. Faeries (+1)
4. Madness Burn
3. Jund Wildfire (+4)
2. High Tide (+3)
1. Blue Terror

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