Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Normally when I start writing about a new season of Pauper Challenges on Magic Online I give the caveat that there’s not much to glean from one week of data. Two weeks in and we can start to see trends emerge. In my estimation here are the things you need to know about the shifting state of Pauper as you prepare for upcoming events.
Combo Summer?
Combo in Pauper is a daredevil walking a tightrope. It has to be just powerful enough to be competitive without being so dominant that it warps the format. Recently we have seen Basking Broodscale combo prove to be too powerful while other stalwarts – like the traditional combo version of WonderWalls – falling shy of the top tier. The introduction of High Tide combo into the metagame has provided Pauper with a combo deck, that while strong, has yet to dominate in the ways its predecessors has. While there are other complaints about the deck – namely around the way it impacts tournament operations and the clock – purely based on numbers High Tide remains a reasonable inclusion in the format. It’s strength as a spell based combo deck has opened the way for other decks that operate on more familiar axes to succeed.
Elves, for all its little green creatures, is a combo deck. Operating on the principle of Hypermana, where every threat helps to progress you mana development to a top end, Elves snowballs quickly. The deck’s ability to deploy a large army for Timberwatch Elf or sink Priest of Titania mana into Nyxborn Hydra provides multiple angles of attack and the duo of Lead the Stampede and Winding Way means your hand is going to be well stocked. Elves excels at deploying these cards and, for the time being, has fewer board wipes to worry about thanks in part to High Tide and the other ascending combo deck.
I Spy Walls
Balustrade Spy and Dread Return have been tearing up Legacy for quite some time and while these cards have both been legal in Pauper well over a year it is only recently that a consistent version of the combo has emerged. Spy Walls takes the mana generation from WonderWalls – which relies on creatures – and adds a Balustrade Spy kill line with Lotleth Giant. The Walls line means the deck has a fail case of just casting the Giant as well as Sagu Wilding and Generous Ent. The deck is a testament to the power of Pauper while also presenting something novel. Discourse around the deck has been largely around its strength but, despite its high placing in the Power Rankings later in this piece, I feel much of the talk is wasted words.
Spy Walls is a good deck but it has multiple failure points. Like many other Pauper combo decks it is highly vulnerable to graveyard hate. Part of the reason for its success is that out of the three main “combo” decks seeing play these days, it is the only one that leans heavily on the discard pile. In fact, each deck operates in a different sphere – spells, creatures in play, creatures in graveyard. This divergence means that there are very few “universal” answers to the combo threat at the moment which in turn has added to the success of these archetypes.
Wiped Clean
Krark-Clan Shaman and Toxin Analysis formed the backbone of board control in Pauper for the past several months. Both Grixis Affinity and Jund Wildfire leaned heavily on this duo to take out threats and bolster their life total. Both of these decks are falling rapidly down the Power Rankings. The lack of a strong board control deck in the format has helped given rise to Elves and the struggles of black based midrange means fewer copies of Bojuka Bog and Nihil Spellbomb floating around which gives graveyard decks a bit more breathing room. While I do not think Grixis Affinity will return to its former glory, I am more bullish on Jund.
Grixis Affinity is a collection of good cards held together with Artifact themes. Over the past two years, commons have been pushed towards existing synergies and Artifacts have become more prevalent. As such there are more cards that care about “noncreature” cards while abilities like Affinity are far more rare. The threshold to care about Artifacts has dropped to a single inclusion. In order to get the benefit of a card like Fanatical Offering you do not need to dedicate your deck to it – you simply need enough spare material. Affinity style decks will continue to see play – Refurbished Familiar is a hell of a Magic card – but the need to push hard in construction just is not there anymore.
What about Jund? This deck is, by nature, reactive. It needs to be built to match a specific metagame and the landscape has changed. Jund absolutely has the tools to adapt but given the cycle of a format it will take a few weeks for the correct threats and answers to bu sussed out before Jund can climb the mountain again. While I doubt the deck will fight for the top spot in Pauper, it is likely to be a top five deck before the season ends.
I See What UU Did There
Blue Terror remains the best deck in Pauper. Faeries – a deck that struggled to find footing much of last season – has climbed four spots in the Power Rankings. This is a testament to the ability to say “no” with Counterspell and Spellstutter Sprite. In metagames where there is a wide array of problematic cards and multiple lines of attack, very little is as strong as shutting down a key spell. While Elves might be able to navigate around a single counter, High Tide needs to resolve a copy of its namesake while Spy Walls can fall flat if it took the wrong line in the face of countermagic. Terror has been at the top of Pauper for quite some time but Faeries is experiencing something of a resurgence thanks in part to a Jellyfish.
Illvoi Galeblade is not a Faerie, and it certainly isn’t Spellstutter Sprite. What it is, however, is a flash flyer that leaves up mana for interaction while also setting up a Ninja and cashing in for a card later in the game. This little push has been enough to make Faeries a real factor in the format heading into the weekend. Faeries is always lingering at the edges, ready to strike, and its time seems to be near.
Looking ahead to this weekend I would be looking at something in the midrange camp that would have play against this wide field. Being the weirdo that I am I would be iterating on a Food Gardens lists that have added Nutrient Block to the mix while also having access to maindeck copies of Pestilence. These decks can gain gobs of life while also controlling the board. And who doesn’t love a chance to play Cauldron Familiar in a fair capacity?
Power Rankings
10. Grixis Affinity (-2)
9. Bogles (Not Ranked)
8. Golgari Gardens (NR)
7. Jund Wildfire (-6)
6. Faeries (+4)
5. High Tide (+1)
4. Madness Burn (-1)
3. Elves (+2)
2. Spy Walls (NR)
1. Blue Terror
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