Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
If I were more well versed in the games this is likely a spot where I would make a reference to the Final Fantasy series. Being the uncultured swine that I am you’ll have to settle for some retread of “it’s a new season in Pauper and the first weekend results do not tell us much”.
Except this time I actually have something new to add below the fold: a card from Final Fantasy has already made an impact. All that being said the metagame does not look drastically different from how Tarkir Dragonstorm season ended. This experience is familiar as Pauper rarely jump cuts to something new. Instead it takes time for the format to shift unless the new cards are so powerful they catalyze change.
It should be noted that after several weeks of larger challenges, these events were six round affairs. Saturday’s challenge had a relatively meager 42 players which is a a decent amount less than the 60 something we had seen for much of last season. That fact does not have any impact on the numbers presented above as these are merely cumulative; the size of a tournament will not impact the Top 8s acquired over the course of the season. What the number of players can influence, however, is how much cream rises to the top.
The longer a tournament, the less likely it is variance has an outsized influence. It is possible for a player to “run hot”. They can win every die roll, have amazing opening hands, have opponent’s that stumble. If you’ve played in a tournament setting you’ve likely been in one of these seats (if not both). This is one reason why I tend to look at information week after week – it can help to identify trends and separate the so called noise from the actual signal. Weeks such as this can be confounding when taken in isolation but given a long enough time span they are simple another suite of datum.
Coming out of week one of Final Fantasy I would put Blue Terror as the top deck in Pauper, continuing the trend from Dragonstorm season. Rakdos Madness has a strong weekend as well but falls into the next tier alongside Elves, High Tide, Jund Wildfire, and Madness Burn. At the top of the metagame we have a disruptive tempo deck built around singular large threats and then beneath that we have a midrange value pile, a go wide creature combo deck, spell based combo, and then a pair of decks that leverage Sneaky Snacker for damage and value. How does this relate to the breakout card of the set?
Black Mage’s Rod has already had a huge impact on the format. It has helped to bring back Golgari Gardens and is earning slots in all manner of decks. While I believe Gardens (and other Black Control variants) are a natural home, I want to talk a bit about why this card is a perfect fit for Pauper.
First, it generates material. Whether you like it or not cards that bring a friend to the party have become a staple in a format with Fanatical Offering and Eviscerator’s Insight. While you may not want to sacrifice the Hero from the Rod that is an option that does exist. That this artifact brings a creature to the part matters for cards like Kor Skyfisher and Stickytongue Sentinel, providing a slow and steady stream of chump blockers. Time and time again cards like this have proven themselves to be potent. Being an artifact also means the Rod plays nicely with Refurbished Familiar and Pactdoll Terror.
What about the Wizard ability? Unlike Guttersnipe or Kessig Flamebreather, additional copies of the Rod will trigger previous iterations. This is, as they say, a big game. When your persistent source of damage has added synergy with the next persistent source it stacks the damage up high. Black Mage’s Rod part of the first wave of cards in black that feature the ability to passively deal damage just from casting spells. Now when you look at what black is good at in Pauper – which is casting card draw and removal spells – you start to see how the Rod can exert pressure on the format.
Going back to the top decks of the moment, black is decently well positioned to have some amount of game against them all. Black can cast Diabolic Edict effects to take down Tolarian Terror and other large threats; it has Drown in Sorrow and the combination of Crypt Rats and Toxin Analysis to wipe the board; Black can exile the graveyard with Bojuka Bog; it has discard for combo; Black can even splash green for Weather the Storm to survive an onslaught. Black has been a spellslinger color without a spout for quite some time and now the Rod (as well as Cornered By Black Mages) give the deck a way to convert those investments into a way to win the game.
Is there a chance I am too bullish on black? Absolutely – black based control is one of my favorite archetypes in the history of Pauper. That being said when I hop back into the queues my plan is to try various builds of Black Mage Gardens until I can find one that fits.
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