The Calm After the Dragonstorm

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

If you’re reading this, Final Fantasy has been released into the wild. We are already seeing new cards make their appearance in 5-0 decklists and I am interested to see if any of these cards can break through in this weekend’s challenges. I am bullish on the set despite my lack of familiarity with the source material. Still it is important to have an understanding of Pauper moving into this new season and that is where this summary comes into play. I am going to be providing my takes on some of the top decks, along with some numbers that informed said takes. And for giggles and engagement, let’s make it this article resemble the Power Rankings.

8. Flicker Tron

When the Pauper Format Panel decided to reintroduce Prophetic Prism there were some concerns that the old control Tron decks would surge in popularity and create problems for decks trying to go long. The counter argument to this was that Pauper is significantly faster today than Tron’s heyday. For the time being, the latter is holding true. Flicker Tron made up 3.13% of the Top 32 metagame and 4.18% of the Winner’s Metagame, but it did rack up 12 Top 8 finishes and two wins. The deck wants to assemble its mana engine and then leverage that abundance to cast high impact spells, eventually getting the best of the bunch thanks to Mnemonic Wall and Ephemerate or Ghostly Flicker. The 0.47 Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement places the strategy at about half a win better than an average Top 32 deck, which given the length of the season is a solid performance.

7. High Tide

High Tide was the other deck about which there were concerns when the eponymous card was added back to Pauper. Thus far, based entirely on numbers, the deck has proved to be decidedly fine. It has a 0.48 aMSAR (just in line with Flicker Tron). The deck was 4.24% of the Top 32 metagame and 4.99% of the Winner’s Metagame. The low delta here indicates that the deck performed moderately better than expectation but was hardly a breakout star. Nine Top 8 finishes and two wins round out a respectable season.

However that is not the entire story. High Tide decks can monopolize game actions and take up a ton of time in a match without having a deterministic kill. Based solely on numbers alone the deck seems to be well within the bounds of what is acceptable, and given the surge in popularity in Pauper Challenges over Dragonstorm season, the deck has not kept people away. At the same time where are folks who have made their feelings on the “time suck” known. For now I have it as the seventh best deck going into Final Fantasy season.

6. Rakdos Madness

The back half of the season saw Rakdos Madness as one of the more popular decks. With Fifteen Top 8 finishes, 3 wins, and an aMSAR of 0.53 Rakdos Madness was one of the ways people decided to establish a clock in the post Kuldotha Rebirth metagame. All that being said the deck underperformed it’s 8.04% of the Top 32 metagame with 7.27% of the Winner’s Metagame. Taken together we have a popular deck that while very good, might be a hair overplayed.

5. Elves

The numbers for Elves were buoyed by a very strong second half of the season. Seventeen Top 8s and 2 wins, Elves was 5.92% of the Top 32 metagame and 6.57% of the Winner’s Meta and finished with an aMSAR of 0.56. Elves found its lane and thrived, often putting games out of reach early and applying pressure with notable elf Crashing Drawbridge. The lack of Elves in the latest set should not so much to hinder the deck’s success but it would not shock me to see a surge in black strategies which may cause issues for this particular stripe of green mage.

4. Jund Wildfire

Good old Jund. An aMSAR of 0.58, 4.91% of the Top 32 metagame and 5.5% of the Winner’s Metagame; a dozen Top 8 finishes and not a single win. These are some real Jund numbers in that the showcase a deck that is better than fine but hardly anything to write home about. Yet as long as drawing cards and killing creatures is good, Jund Wildfire will find a place in the Pauper metagame (until it’s supplanted by a better black midrange deck).

3. Grixis Affinity

There really isn’t much to say about this deck that I haven’t said before, so here are the numbers: Fourteen Top 8s with two wins; 7.03% of the Top 32 metagame and 7.1% of the Winner’s Metagame; an aMSAR of 0.59. Grixis Affinity remains a top choice but it is entirely possible that the advent of Suplex will put a damper on the machine.

2. Red Deck Wins

The heir to Kuldotha Red, this is a separate deck than the Guttersnipe/Sneaky Snacker Madness Red. A whopping 23 Top 8 finishes with a single win, RDW was 10.38% of the Top 32 metagame. Its 9.57% share of the Winner’s Meta indicates that it performed slightly below expectations, even with a solid aMSAR of 0.65. Like Rakdos Madness, these decks can falter in the face of dedicated lifegain and that is something Pauper has in abundance. While RDW can still grind out damage late, it lacks the second gear provided by the now banned Kuldotha Rebirth.

1. Blue Terror

The best deck on the season. It was nearly a win better than the average Top 32 deck with an aMSAR of 0.96. It played largely true to expectation with 10.83% of the Winner’s metagame against 10.94% of the Top 32 metagame. 22 Top 8s; 4 wins. The deck put up real numbers. Later in the season we saw a return of Dimir Terror in an effort to one up the 5/5s and 6/5s with Crawl from the Cellar, but even then the mono blue version was hard to stop. All told Blue Terror might just be the deck to beat going into Final Fantasy season and so I have it at the top of my Power Rankings.

That’s where Dragonstorm season leaves us off. Do you have questions about any deck not listed here? What cards from Final Fantasy are going to make an impact in Pauper? Sound off and let me know what think. We’ll be back next week with our first look at the new metagame.

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