Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Aetherdrift has been out for a little more than a month and as has become customary it is time for me to check in on the overall state of Pauper on Magic Online. Over the past four weeks there have been 12 Challenges and one Showcase tournament on the platform. Overall, 45 different archetypes have made it to the Top 32 cutoff while 23 have at least one Top 8 appearance; 16 have at least two such finishes. For the purposes of today’s piece I want to look at the archetypes with at least 3% of the Top 32 metagame – in this case that means a minimum of 9 total appearances in the the Top 32. This leaves us with 10 total archetypes to cover but does leave a few outside the discussion zone.
Out of the decks that do not make the 3% threshold, five have won one of their tournaments: Altar Tron, CawGate, Mono White Aggro, Snacker Control/The Modern Age Faeries, and Turbo Smog. Outside of CawGate these archetypes have a proven record during Aetherdrift season but find themselves outside the top of the metagame. Altar Tron is a known quantity but has only recently burst on to the scene with Pactdoll Terror as a standard inclusion. CawGate has largely fallen out of favor but it – as with Turbo Smog – now has Coalition Honor Guard as a maindeck inclusion as a way to steal copies of Sadistic Glee. Mono White Aggro is a consistently strong choice that has never garnered the popularity of other decks. Finally the Sneaky Snacker deck likely suffers from being so close to the more established (and well known) Dimir Faeries. Looking ahead to the next few weeks I imagine that these decks will continue to improve their standing while still struggling to increase their overall metagame share.
The Deadly Dispute Decks
It’s impossible to talk about the current state of Pauper without talking about Deadly Dispute. The abundant of free material in Pauper would make Dispute one of the best draw spells available but combine that with cards like Ichor Wellspring and you have the bones of a backbreaking card advantage engine. Out of the ten decks that topped the 3% Top 32 threshold, four of them are running a Deadly Dispute engine. These four (Grixis Affinity, Golgari Broodscale, Jund Broodscale, Jund Wildfire) account for over 30% of all Top 32 decks (this number jumps to 39.17% when looking at the all archetypes). Looking at the Winner’s Metagame for the 3% cutoff the top four Deadly Dispute decks hold a 34.29% share; looking at the entire Winner’s Metagame Dispute decks occupy 43.77% of the total.
These numbers are a bit startling to behold. Nearly 40% of all decks that made Top 32 in the past month were running Deadly Dispute and the card is closing in on 44% of the Winner’s Metagame. It is clear that this engines is one of the best things you can be doing in the format to support your strategy. And to be clear Dispute is supporting aggressive strategies (Mono Black Aristocrats) but more importantly both combo and midrange control.
Let’s start with combo. Deadly Dispute is the supporting scaffolding for Broodscale Combo. The deck is able to stitch together its pieces in part because of the sheer number of cards it sees and Dispute plays a key role there. Broodscale can afford to take early turns off to set things up with an Ichor Wellspring or Khalni Garden in an effort to get the cards flowing. The Treasure that gets left behind also makes it easy for Broodscale to continue to churn until it can set up its Splinter Twin situation.
Then there are the midrange options. Grixis Affinity and Jund Wildfire are also able to produce an abundance of material to feed to the black draw spell. Whereas Broodscale uses these cards to dig for key components these decks just want to amass cards in order to overwhelm the opponent. There is no need to win fast when you have all the options and simply dragging the game out until Makeshift Munitions or Nyxborn Hydra get the job done.
While not a requirement Writhing Chrysalis does a fantastic job of bridging the gap from development to winning in decks that include the Eldrazi. That it also provides material for Dispute and friends is not nothing. You don’t need to run Deadly Dispute alongside Chrysalis but decks that do tend to do better when all is said and done.
The Counterspell Decks
Three different blue decks grace the top of the standings. Faeries – both Dimir and Mono Blue – make the cut as does Blue Terror. These decks all have various ways of saying “no” to key spells and being able to cut off Deadly Dispute at the knees that are Ichor Wellspring can go a long way to pulling ahead. These decks have a combined 15 Top 8s over the past four weeks, but not a win to their name. By comparison, Deadly Dispute decks (above the 3% threshold) have 39 Top 8 finishes and 8 wins.
What does this tell us? As good as Counterspell and its ilk may be it is entirely possible to just out value blue decks. Decks that are able to amass cards and pick off threats can pick off the mono blue threats and go card for card with Dimir Faeries in the latter stages of the game. Blood Fountain can sneak in early and provide a steady stream of Refurbished Familiars – which will always get its card – late. As strong as blue can be it is a step behind this next tier.
Dig Up Her Bones
Let’s take a walk to the graveyard with Dredge. A combo deck made possible by Dread Return, Dredge wants to fill its graveyard quickly until it can reanimate a sequence of Lotleth Giants to reduce the opponent’s life total to zero. The deck also has access to the scam plan of cycling a Troll of Khazad-dûm and bringing it back with Exhume. Dredge is putty up respectable numbers (six Top 8s in 18 total Top 32 appearances) but is likely succeeding in part due to the lack of graveyard hate running around currently. Dredge can sidestep a Relic of Progenitus but when it is facing down consistent pressure it could fold. Given that very few other decks at the top of the format are currently using their graveyard as a resource it follows that Dredge could have its moment in the sun.
It Bogles the Mind
Bogles tends to have a good first week. Occasionally it has some staying power into the second week. Rarely does it remain a top deck a month into the season. The second most popular archetype with 47 Top 32 finishes (11.3%), it has a solid 11 Top 8 finishes. However Bogles appears to lack closing power. It is feasting on the other aggressive decks in the metagame and thriving in the absence of Edicts, but it does suffer in the face of Krark-Clan Shaman carrying a Hunter’s Blowgun. There are ways around this – either a Mask of Law and Grace on your Bogle or a Temporal Isolation on the Shaman, but it still puts the pressure on Bogles to play a largely reactive card in a proactive deck.
You’re Still Seeing Red? You Should Get Your Eyes Checked
Yes, Kuldotha Red is still a top deck in Pauper. It has 50 Top 32 finishes and a dozen Top 8 finishes. That being said it has yet to win a tournament in Aetherdrift season. Kuldotha Red retains its turn four uncontested kill but when the prevailing combo deck in the format has a similar clock then things get tough for little red creatures that like to turn sideways. Considering winning fast is one of the best ways to disrupt Broodscale combo the deck often comes with multiple ways to gain life including Tamiyo’s Safekeeping main and Weather the Storm out of the sideboard. Toxin Analysis can turn Krark-Clan Shaman into a way to gain an ungodly amount of life and Reckoner’s Bargain can undo two turns of Red’s hard work. Red may continue to help define Pauper but it is definitely ceding ground to a specific Eldrazi Lizard.
From my vantage point, Pauper is currently midrange hell. There are a bunch of decks that are all jockeying to win turns five, six, and seven. These decks are well set up to survive to that point and delay the victory of the other decks aiming to secure the bag in the same time frame. If you are trying to find a lane outside of this your best bet is to try and win fast or go over the top and ignore the slog. Easier said than done.
Pauper Power Rankings – March 10 Edition
10. Dredge
9. Blue Terror
8. Jund Wildfire
7. Dimir Faeries
6. Faeries
5. Bogles
4. Grixis Affinity
3. Golgari Broodscale
2. Kuldotha Red
1. Jund Broodscale
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