February 21-23 Pauper Weekend Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Okay folks, this was the big one. The weekend of February 21 saw three Challenges and a Magic Online qualifier. That latter tournament, which took place on Saturday, was an eight round affair. The result is that we received a treasure trove of Top 32 data on the weekend which can help provide additional texture and context to the format as it exists for the duration of Aetherdrift season. As is fitting for the current setting, the current format is all about racing.

The top line of the weekend is that both Kuldotha Red and Broodscale Combo outperformed the field. The red deck was the most popular on the weekend with seven Top 8s out of 18 appearances in the Top 32. It also led the way with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.56. Jund Broodscale was not far behind with six Top 8s (including a win) in 13 Top 32 appearances, ending with an aMSAR of 1.54. Golgari Broodscale had a dozen Top 32 finishes, including four Top 8s and a win although it lagged behind with an aMSAR of 0.81. These decks were far and away the best decks on the weekend with the next best archetype being Mono White Aggro (three Top 32 finishes, two Top 8s including a win) with an aMSAR of 0.30.

Like I said, the format is about racing. Kuldotha Red is a consistent turn four win uncontested while Broodscale decks are capable of winning on turn four (or turn three if the opponent does absolutely nothing). The wrinkle in this is that once Broodscale gets set up it can potentially win at any moment thanks to that deck’s ability to dig for key components. That means unless your deck can goldfish on turn four (and survive against red for that long), you are at risk of faltering against Broodscale unless you’re loaded up on interaction.

Of course it’s never that easy. Your removal has to line up just so in order to not die to red and the best removal spells against Broodscale (Snuff Out, Cast Down) look downright silly against the aggressive creatures and burn of Kuldotha. To borrow from folklore, Kuldotha is the hare and Broodscale is the tortoise, but it’s a tortoise than can occasionally find itself a pair of rocket shoes.

Here we see the windows of opportunity emerge. Turns 4, 5, and 6 are critical in that if you can survive to turn four you should have a plan to win on turns 5 or 6, unless you are loaded up on removal and interaction. There you can find your lane to winning the long game as we can see in the other winning deck from the weekend – Jund Wildfire. This deck can stall the game long enough that its removal and heavy hitters can get the job done.

This is one reason why I feel Writhing Chrysalis is so maligned in the discourse. While this creature can just die to removal, it does a ton of work in the metagame by being a critical brick wall on turn four. Because of this it can stymie many of the decks that try to do the work of winning the game on turns five and six, which can have a sizeable impact on the outcomes of those games. As someone who has been playing an off-meta aggressive deck, I have run face first into the Chrysalis a few times and understand why its annoying. But then again I also am figuring out ways around the Eldrazi.

Looking ahead I would keep an eye on the Pactdoll Black decks. These builds can leverage Grim Bauble and Blood Fountain with Pactdoll Terror, helping to blunt assaults while regrowing threats on a consistent basis. Whether or not these decks remain mono black remains to be seen but I think there is something to be said for the four drop making a spot for itself in the metagame.

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