Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Aetherdrift is coming up in our rear view mirror but on Magic Online there are still a few more Foundation events. Technically these final Challenges fall under the umbrella of the Innistrad Remastered release, but given the short window between the sets and the minimal impact I have grouped the last two “seasons” together. As it stands the format is continuing to settle in its lane, sustaining the trends that have provided a relatively diverse – if stagnant – metagame for the past three months.
Once again a small Challenge left the results with several Top 32 finishers finding themselves with losing records. Over the course of the season these results wash out and help to paint a more complete picture of the format; over a single weekend they can exacerbate and highlight the spread from best to worst. The top decks on the weekend should not surprise anyone with Faeries leading the way with a 1.33 adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement and 14.15% of the Winner’s Meta (4.77% above Top 32 Volume). Dimir Faeries also had a strong showing with an aMSAR of 0.81 and 9.15% of the Winner’s Meta (1.09% above Top 32 Meta) and Kuldotha Red bounce back from a recent dip (aMSAR of 0.71; 12.96% Winner’s meta with a delta of 1.5%).
These results are continuing the story that’s been told about the format over the past few weeks. Broodscale combo isn’t going anywhere (Jund Broodscale with an aMSAR of -0.04; Golgari with an aMSAR of 0.60) and along with Kuldotha Red and Grixis Affinity (aMSAR of -0.23) help to define the format. As these decks have settled, Spellstutter Sprite decks have figured out the best suite of spells to help constrain these. As the various Faeries builds have taken hold, other blue “tempo” style decks have fallen back, opening the window for a few builds that try to win the long game (Golgari Fog, Jund Wildfire).
But again, this feels rote and routine. The game play in the current format reward deep matchup knowledge and picking up on the subtleties of how the opponent is piloting. There is plenty of skill in the play itself but there is also an emphasis on pattern recognition. Whether this is a consequence or a corollary, this leads to Pauper feeling on rails at times. The format lacks access to some effects that appear at higher rarity and can swing the momentum just by resolving. Even the Initiative, which absolutely turns the game on its ear, plays on a very prescribed path. The games are skill intensive, yes, but that also means they can be mentally exhausting and if all you’re doing is playing league after league it can grow wearisome.
This takes us to Aetherdrift. The next release does not rise to the level of a Modern Horizons 3 but it does have a few gems. Importantly the set presents cards that seem tailor made for existing fringe archetypes while also providing at least one card that has the potential to spawn something entirely new.
Lightwheel Enhancements features the new “Speed” mechanic. Cards with Start Your Engines move your speed to one and then once on each of your turns (including the turn your Speed starts), you can advance it when an opponent loses life. Once your speed reaches four you have achieved Max Speed. Here that means you can cast a cheap Aura from the graveyard. Lightwheel Enhancements seems like a slam dunk for both Bogles and Heroic. Heroic often opts for Sentinel’s Eyes which has the same in-game effect but has Escape, which means over a long enough game it will run out of fuel for recasts. All that this Aura asks of you is to have dealt damage three turns. Importantly it does not have to be in play for you to advance your Speed so playing this on turn two can move you to second gear and then things really get rolling.
I like this in Bogles a tad more because the deck has easy access to Creosote Heath – the ping Desert from Outlaws of Thunder Junction. Heroic can lean into this a bit with cards like Gut Shot but I have a feeling Enhancements is just going to be a more honest card in that build. That being said a copy or two of this in Heroic means that you have a way to build pack from nowhere, provided you have a creature that can stick around.
Spectral Interference deserves a mention if only because it hits two important card types at a tax greater than Mana Leak. I am not sure if this one can supplant the other non-Counterspell counters in Pauper, but given the current metagame it might. Right now both creatures and artifacts are rather important so it will always almost always have a target. Is that enough? Probably not but it would not surprise me if this one showed up occasionally.
Chitin Gravestalker is big. It is a reasonable body once you start discounting it, which should not be hard in decks like Affinity, Dredge, or Cycle Storm. In the latter two this card represents a nice juke, providing a way to apply pressure outside of Plan A. The biggest thing holding this card back is the four toughness. Unlike Gurmag Angler and Tolarian Terror – two other five power creatures that can come in for a discount – Gravestalker dies to Galvanic Blast. While this is not entirely bad – it does fuel future Gravestalkers after all – it is a knock on the card. That won’t be enough to consign it to the bench but it will struggle to live up to its discount five power brethren.
I wrote a bit about this card last week when I got the chance to show it off for the first time. Since then there has been a small (very small) surge in Kor Skyfisher decks so I am hopeful this weird little guy will get a chance to shine.
Did Broodscale Combo really need that much help? This card does it all. It protects your Eldrazi Lizard from removal while also kickstarting the combo by putting a +1/+1 counter on it, thereby gifting you an Eldrazi Spawn. It also costs black mana so you can hide your ability to “go off” by tapping out of green. Maximum Overdrive has the potential to overhaul how Broodscale decks operate in game which can just give them yet another angle of attack.
But wait, there’s more! This card also combos with Crypt Rats and Krark-Clan Shaman. This is yet another way to turn those cards into more robust board wipes. Giving up on the lifegain from Toxin Analysis does matter but in matchups where having a second go with your Wrath effect matters this card may just make the cut.
I hate the art on this card. That being said I am excited for Pactdoll Terror in Commander, but also as a potential spout in artifact combo decks. The life loss is a gain over cards like Reckless Fireweaver, meaning that stray Prismatic Strands no longer delay your victory. Being black it also dodges Snuff Out which is not nothing. Four mana is a hefty price tag but decks like Altar Tron could easily afford this if they were so inclined.
Okay now we get to the good stuff. Magmakin Artillerist is a house and could easily spawn a new archetype while shoring up some stalwarts. This card fits neatly into Cycle Storm where it doubles up on Drannith Stinger while also potentially saving on mana. By triggering off of any discard, Artillerist allows Cycle Storm to Reaping the Graves all of its creatures back and then move to the discard step. As long as this Pirate lives, going back down to seven will result in your opponent taking a ton of damage.
Then there’s Ophidian Eye. A three mana blue Aura with flash, Ophidian Eye does not trigger off of combat damage. That means given a discard outlet and enough cards in your library, these two cards can deal a lethal amount of damage. Given the relatively low cost of the cards involved and the fact that blue has cheap interaction this combo is almost certain to make waves. Going Grixis provides you with cost reduction in the form of Nightscape Familiar and redundancy in Unearth. I am excited to see what builds show up and adding another combo to the fold could serve to change Pauper’s current landscape.
Beaststider Vanguard strikes me as an interesting mana sink. In decks like Broodscale Combo an unbound amount of mana (and Energy Refractor) means you can dig for a permanent based win condition (say Makeshift Munitions). Five mana is a lot but at the same time when you have an unbound amount of mana being able to ransack your library is far from a bad thing.
I am not a fan of the “Gotcha” Slot. You see it occasionally in decklists – a one-of that when you draw it at the exact right moment can have an outsized impact on the game. This is usually something like Mana Tithe, which makes for fantastic screenshots but given a large enough sample size end up being a waste of a slot. It is not that singleton copies are bad, but when they are so narrow and do not have synergy with your overall gameplan then they might drag your deck down at times. All of that is to say Silken Strength seems like a halfway decent “Gotcha” card in Bogles that works on both offense (with Ethereal Armor) and defense (surprise blocker).
That’s my take on Aertherdrift. What cards did I miss? What commons are you for and what decks are you looking to brew up? And tell me why it’s a mistake to be a Heroic main in the new season.
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