January 24-26 Pauper Weekend Recap and Aetherdrift Preview

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

I imagine I have a few new visitors today so I won’t bury the lede. I want to thank Wizards of the Coast for sending me this preview content so I can share it with you all. Allow me to introduce Grim Bauble!

Grim Bauble continues the tradition of having cheap artifacts with meaningful enters the battlefield triggers. While Kor Skyfisher and Glint Hawk decks are not at the top of the metagame currently they do pop up from time to time. Grim Bauble provides a solid piece of material that can partner with Tithing Blade to help keep the opponent’s board under control. It also is a perfect piece of fodder for Deadly Disputer and its ilk, and given that it is almost certain to see some amount of play. At one mana it is a reasonable part of a Trinket Mage tool box if those decks ever come back into vogue. Finally it can bin itself with its final ability, helping to curate your next set of draws. As someone who has played his fair share of Omen of the Dead, that ability is not just trinket text.

I’m excited to try out this card once it hits the streets with Aetherdrift. Thanks again Wizards for the free preview.

Okay,but back to the Pauper metagame. The past few weeks have been interesting, at least on Magic Online. The platform has been experiencing a decent amount of lag as of late, which is impacting the ability of some players to fully participate in events. Pauper Challenges have suffered, with attendance dipping somewhat low. Whether this is due client issues or dissatisfaction with the format is not known. Regardless, rather than examine one week of data I took the last three weeks of Foundation season (including the first weekend with Innistrad Remastered legal) and compiled that for today’s discussion.

Rather than focus on the entire Top 32 metagame, I wanted to look at decks that comprised at least 2% of the total field. One deck clocked in with 1.95% at five appearances so it made the cut as well. I’ll be discussing some of the other stats as we discuss the archetypes, but for now I want to focus on two columns in the chart below: Vol % (that is, presence in the Top 32 metagame) and True Vol (a weighted measure that takes archetype performance into account). There is a third, unlabeled column, which shows a deck’s True Vol less it’s Vol%. In other words it measures if a deck under or over performed relative to its presence.

Let’s start with the True Vol/Winner’s Metagame. From this snapshot things look relatively healthy. Kuldotha Red is a bit higher than one would like a deck to be but it isn’t lapping the field. Faeries is closing in on 11% of the Winner’s Meta with four other archetypes clustered around 7% and 8%. Comparing this to the last four week check in (December 13, 2024 – January 5, 2025) and there is a stark difference, with Kuldotha Red taking down over 19% of raw volume and over 17% Winner’s Metagame. That bucket has one more weekend of data so it will be interesting to see if this trend continues. In this moment, however, it appears Pauper is trending back towards a more balanced top of the format.

There is another potential indicator of stability and health – the strong performance of Faeries. Spellstutter Sprite decks, while a constant in Pauper, have not been able to sustain their top tier status in quite some time. Rather these decks tend to start seasons off slowly and pick up steam over time as the proper answer suite is uncovered. Faeries performed admirably over the first four weeks, with 4.95% of the total metagame, bumping up to 5.44% of the Winner’s Meta, all while taking down seven Top 8s. In the second four weeks the deck ticket up – 5.11% of the total meta, 5.68% of the Winner’s Meta with another seven Top 8s, including a win. This last batch (again, only three weeks) sees a huge surge in popularity (9.38% of the Top 32 meta) and no lag in performance (10.91% of the Winner’s Meta), this time with eight Top 8 finishes.

Faeries upward trend indicates that not only is the format settling in some capacity, but that it is doing so in a way that can be attacked with interaction. This may be due in some part to the strength of Golgari Broodscale, which while holding fast at 6.25% of the Top 32 metagame has increased its share of the Winner’s Meta from 7.61% over the previous four week chunk to 8.75% of the last three weeks. As combo decks improve then decks that can disrupt them go up the power rankings. Faeries is well suited to the task, especially against Broodscale. Spellstutter Sprite gets around Duress (a common piece of interaction) and counterspells are not deterred by Snakeskin Veil.

Of course this leads us to the fact that Broodscale Combo continues to be a force in the metagame. The deck is capable of winning early and has the tools to grind to the midgame until it goes in for the kill. Interactive decks might be a solid choice here but other people are opting to just completely ignore the combo potential and try to win without caring what their opponent is doing. Dredge was only 3.13% of the Top 32 metagame but jumps to 5.48% of the winner’s share, netting four Top 8 finishes including a win in the past three weeks. Not listed above is a Poison/Proliferate “Storm” deck which went 9-0 on its way to a Challenge victory on January 26. Even if it is not dominating the landscape Broodscale is still doing a lot of work to define the meta.

So where does that leave us? Things are settling. They might even look okay on the surface. But digging deeper we are starting to see there are issues. The format does appear healthy by certain metrics but as we peel away the layers we see the balance is precarious at best. What happens in the next few weeks will do a lot to tell us where things are heading.

I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons. I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, you can sign up for my Patreon starting at just $1.

Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.

Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!