Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Well, I’m back.
For those of you who don’t follow me on social media I was out of commission last week with a case of Shingles. I’m on the mend and have finally updated my metagame tracker. In summary, Kuldotha Red was the best deck the weekend covering December 6-8, Grixis Affinity was the deck to beat for the first month of Foundations season, and Jund Broodscale had a relatively gaudy set of results December 13-15. And honestly, this all tracks. These are three of the better strategies available in Pauper and to have them all put up solid results over those given time spans is to be expected.
Expectations. That’s a word that’s going to come up a lot in this piece. Yesterday the Pauper Format Panel released an update video where we announced that there would not be any changes to banned list at this time. The reaction has been mixed, which should not be a shock. As a non-rotating format, Pauper is constantly being pulled between the past and future, with old cards providing the inertia for the momentum of new releases. In my opinion, Pauper is doing a solid job of synthesizing these two extremes, producing a format that pulls from the entire card pool. I will be the first to concede that there have been some strategies that could stand to take some time out of the spotlight, but given everything Pauper is in a pretty good spot.
A lot of the discourse in the wake of the ban (lack of) announcement has centered on a few cards. There is the Basking Broodscale–Sadistic Glee combo, a strategy some feel is too good while others see it as crowding out other potential combo decks. While Broodscale combo is good it is not significantly above the power curve of the format. Additionally it provides the format with a sustainably competitive combo deck for the first time in several years. Is Broodscale pushing other combo builds to the fringes? Yes, but the reality is many were already there in the first place.
Another target of ire is Deadly Dispute. The treasure left behind by the draw spell is more than a little bit of value and some feel that this discount at the register has pushed the black spell – and the associated card advantage package – over the line. While Grixis Affinity does benefit from Deadly Dispute, it also is doing a ton of work helping to support black based midrange, and having strong black midrange decks available in the format is usually indicative of healthy metagame. These decks naturally prey on creature strategies and their viability means that attacking and blocking matters on some metric. Would removing Dispute from the format in favor of Reckoner’s Bargain or Fanaticial Offering remove this view from Pauper’s landscape? Potentially, but there’s a similar chance the decks would just take a step back and we can debate that another day.
The finally topic of conversation centered around Writhing Chrysalis. The bane of Modern Horizons 3 Limited has proven to be a real threat in Pauper. It comes down early and can quickly get itself out of Galvanic Blast range while also proving a challenge for Skred. It also dodges Hydroblast and while it does fall to Cast Down, Snuff Out, Journey to Nowhere, and a litany of other removal spells it often leaves behind material. That the Chrysalis also blocks flyers means that cards like Glint Hawk – format stalwarts – are finding themselves on the outside looking in. There is a population of players that feel Chrysalis is too good for the format and needs to be banned. It has crowded out a significantly number of creatures while also rendering certain removal spells less effective.
In my opinion, the presence of Writhing Chrysalis in the Pauper metagame is a good sign. Despite everything, Chrysalis largely comes down to being a mountain of stats. It attacks and blocks, often above rate for the mana invested into it, while also providing a sticky threat. That is, it can leave behind some materail that has limited utility, but if not answered it will stick around. Like other massive creatures before it (Gurmag Angler, Tolarian Terror) and creatures that dictate their plane of battle (Kor Skyfisher), Chrysalis helps to set the parameters for what sort of singular threat is reasonable in the format.
Let’s go back to Kor Skyfisher as an example. This card has been vital to the format for years as both a creature with power and toughness and as part of a card flow engine. For years if you wanted to win in the air, and were not planning on going wide, your creature had to line up well with Kor Skyfisher. Going wide still worked since you could always go around a singular Skyfisher. The roles are currently inverted, with Chrysalis keeping singular Skyfishers at bay while bird tokens enhanced with Guardians’ Pledge doing the heavy lifting.
Now none of this is to say that Chrysalis may not prove to be over the line eventually. Currently, however, it represents a push towards midrange. A threat that can dominate on its own if left untouched but one with available interplay. There are spells that handle the Eldrazi and many of them already see play. That being said sometimes regular shifts in the metagame, where formerly middling strategies emerge as contenders, can prove to be unsettling, especially if things were unchanged for so long.
That, more than anything, may be at the root of some gripes. The latest format defining creature did little to bring old decks back to prominence and instead gave us multiple varieties of Jund.
Is that such a bad thing?
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