Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
The first week of a new season of Magic Online Pauper Challenges is always filled with hope. Hope that the new set will shake things up – even a little – and help to dislodge the top decks. This wellspring is usually quashed relatively quickly. It is a rare occurrence indeed that a new common upsets the apple cart. Foundations is not exception to this rule. Much like previous non-Horizons, non-Masters releases, the set has brought relatively little to the party in its debut. Similar to previous “First Week” breakdowns, a familiar face has risen up bearing the beacon of hope for a change…but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Mono White Aggro is not a complete unknown in Pauper. It has been one of the better underplayed decks for much of the past year, routinely cropping up to Top 8 a Challenge and put up a consistent 5-0 in the League. The deck wins via combat, usually in a go-wide manner with multiple small creatures backed up by Guardians’ Pledge. It can leverage its superior attacking and blocking capability to turn Prismatic Strands into a one sided board wipe while also using the staple to protect its own life total.
The deck had a rather obscene showing this past weekend with five total Top 32 appearances and a whopping 80% conversion rate to the Top 8. Based upon overall record it would make sense to see two copies of Mono White in the elimination rounds, not four. Mono White made up 5.21% of the Top 32 metagame and increased upon that share to 8.64% of the Winner’s Metagame. It had the third best Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement with 0.38. For a comparison, the deck achieved 1.36% of the Winner’s Metagame during Duskmourn season with a cumulative AMSAR of -0.12. As for the final week of Duskmourn, Mono White did not make a Top 32 appearance.
Now let’s be clear – comparing one week of events to seven is not apples to apples. At the same time it is a bit of a stark contrast. So what gives? While not a massive innovation, Suture Priest has gained popularity over the past few months as a soft answer to Basking Broodscale combo. Most Broodscale decks will have an answer to the Phyrexian somewhere in their list, but if it buys time for a lethal attack then the Priest was well worth the price of inclusion. Thraben Charm is also a well positioned modal spell which gives Mono White a little more punch. A below rate creature removal spell that also take out graveyards or problematic enchantments hits several key elements in the format. All of this seems to be enough to make Mono White a reasonable, if not exciting, option.
So what led the way over the first weekend of Foundations? Grixis Affinity was the most popular deck on the weekend with 15 appearances in the Top 32, along with three Top 8 finishes and a win. An AMSAR score of 0.98 placed it about a win better than the average Top 32 deck. That being said a Win+ ratio of 0.60 places it firmly in the Top 16 for a mean finish (Mono White had a raw Win+ ratio of 1.2, which is a hair better than a Top 8 finish; the adjusted Win+ ratio for Mono White was 0.4, so just a bit behind Grixis).
I do not want to prognosticate too much about what next week might hold, mostly because not much has changed. Grixis Affinity remains a top choice while Kuldotha Red and Tolarian Terror builds are not far behind. Jeskai Ephemerate had a pair of ninth place finishes, and the deck might pick up steam if it can find the right mix of answers. Two decks found a spot for new cards, with Gruul Ramp picking up Bushwhack and the Sunday winning WonderWalls Combo deck adding Squad Rallier to the mix. Dwynen’s Elite has also been making appearances in Elves builds. Pilfer has perhaps had the largest impact, giving black midrange and combo a way to defend their game plans. None of these updates are going to usher in a new era of Pauper but they could nudge things.
Given everything here is what I would be looking at heading into the weekend. First and foremost have a plan for Grixis Affinity. This does not mean loading up your sideboard with Gorilla Shaman and its ilk. Instead, Grixis Affinity should be treated like Kolaghan’s Command Grixis Control from 2018 era Legacy. It is a value deck that leverages low effective mana costs to build an advantage turn over turn. Grixis Affinity excels at efficiency and has enough card advantage to power through to a midgame. Getting under this deck and sidestepping its resiliency is key to keeping them off balance. In this way the success of Mono White, which tools to apply consistent pressure, makes sense. The key, therefore, will be having a strategy that can get under Grixis while going over the top of Mono White. Flaring Pain looks to be a key sideboard card this weekend and if you can figure out how to make Kiln Fiend and Crackling Cyclops sing then you may just have an edge of the format for the next series of events.
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