Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
And if the Second Foundation had our backs I’d be sleeping a little bit better tonight
The Ergs – “Second Foundation”
Confounding. That is the word I keep coming back to when I discuss Duskmourn season. After seven weeks we have finally escaped Magic’s most haunted house and now enter the new world of Foundations. While the latest set is not likely to have a massive impact on Pauper (Patrons can check out my set review here; it is also available as a one time purchase) it nonetheless allows us to turn the page on a series of Challenges that in many ways left me perplexed.
Historically it was rare when someone with a losing record would finish within the Top 32 of a Pauper Challenge. These events, while not as popular as other offerings on Magic Online, would attract a large enough crowd to ensure that at worst an even win-loss record would find itself in 32nd place. This season seventeen of the twenty-two Challenges featured a negative win-loss record in the Top 32. Now over a long enough timeline this does come out in the wash but in isolation it does give me a bit of pause. We can (and will) get to the numbers later but for now I want take a few guesses as to the “why”.
First and foremost earlier this season Daybreak announced a change to the prizing structure of Challenges. While this has been walked back some the tournaments no longer produce the same expected value in prizing. Whether we like it or not this absolutely factors into some players choice to participate. If you only have so many hours in the day and the material reward entering an account is part of the calculus then it makes sense that some players would take their temporal investment elsewhere. To be clear I am not trying to make a value judgement of people who grind events for the value. Motivation is personal and whatever pushes folks to participate and as long as they do so within the bounds of good manners they’re a-ok in my book.
Another factor could be the state of Pauper. While the format itself appears healthy there are some who do not feel that to be the case. Pauper is in a decent spot with the best decks not that far ahead from those in the second tier. That being said the top of the format is largely stable. The best decks for the past seven weeks are not entirely dissimilar from the best decks over Bloomburrow season and Modern Horizons 3 season before that.
When does stability turn into stagnation? That seems to be the root of some of this dissatisfaction. Grixis Affinity and Kuldotha Red, for example, have been two of the best decks in Pauper for over two years. Other decks have emerged as contenders but the aforementioned duo have been a constant presence. In some ways this is good for Pauper as it gives the competitive landscape a North Star by which their can orient their positions in the metagame. At the same time queuing into the same decks day after day, week after week – for years mind you – can get tiresome. That being said I believe Pauper is in a period of stability rather than stagnation. Yes, the veteran strategies remain strong but recently there has been a proliferation of builds based around other engines that have proven themselves to be true contenders.
Now – say it with me – correlation does not equal causation. It is possible that these factors, and others, have contributed to the smaller Challenge fields. It is also plausible that these variables have had some-to-no impact. I am not here to point fingers but rather to provide potential explanations as it serves the results of the events.
Speaking of those results, the smaller Challenge sizes seem to have been a boon to Kuldotha Red. Spoiler alert – the deck tops my end of season Power Rankings. The deck ended Duskmourn season with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 0.87 – up from 0.51 during Bloomburrow. Kuldotha Red took up 17.61% of the Top 32 Metagame and 18.81% of the Winner’s Metagame. If these numbers were to sustain that would indicate a problem. That being said Kuldotha Red is trending downwards, with 20.1% of the Winner’s Metagame over the first four weeks as opposed to 16.92% over the final three weeks of the season.
Grixis Affinity had a strong -if not as impressive – season with a final aMSAR of 0.6. At 10.8% of the Top 32 metagame and 12.07% of the Winner’s Metagame the deck falls far more in line with what we have come to expect for a top deck in the format over the past few seasons. This is a step back from the deck’s Bloomburrow production with aMSAR of 1.09 and 14.13% of the Winner’s Metagame, but still indicative of a deck that belongs at the top.
So this brings us back to the confounding elements. Kuldotha Red got to add Clockwork Percussionist to the mix which was definitely a boon, but likely not enough to push Red to the levels it achieved. Taking everything together it is plausible that Red was able to take advantage of the smaller Challenge sizes as well as a boost in popularity to improve its standings. As seen in this video, the player collected data shows that Kuldotha Red has a sub 50% win rate. It seems reasonable, then, that Red is probably closer to its Bloomburrow performance than its Duskmourn showing. In other words, it remains an important, and perhaps defining, part of the Pauper metagame while not being so utterly dominant as to warp the format.
So had does the rest of the format take shape with these two on the medal stand? Broodscale Combo remains a contender, with both Jund and Golgari builds occupying spots in the Top 8 of the season. These decks are able to win from multiple angles and, considering the variety in their construction, can keep opponents guessing on exactly how they will execute the victory formation until it is too late.
Tolarian Terror decks also performed well during Duskmourn season. Blue Terror, Dimir Terror, and Izzet Control all find themselves in the Top 8 of the Power Rankings. Blue Terror continues to provide a quick clock while keeping opponent’s off balance while the two color varieties can play a slower game backed up with removal. Fast 5/5s remain a good way to end games in Pauper, even in the face of aggression.
Where does that leave things heading into Foundations season? Right now I would not hedge too much against Kuldotha Red. Don’t get me wrong as it remains a top deck in the format. Having a reasonable plan – whether its blocking, life gain, or Fogs – is a must. After that it is all about having a relatively compact win condition. Notably absent from the best decks this time around are decks like Elves and Gruul Ramp, both of which need a critical mass of mana to work. It would not surprise me to see Elves surge a bit with Dwynen’s Elite making its debut. Another thing to consider are the sweepers in Pauper – damage based removal is making a big push at the moment. Because of this it would not be a shock for midrange aggressive white decks to return to the fold, especially those that have the ability to survive the current crop of Toxin Analysis fueled Wraths.
Duskmourn Season Power Rankings
8. Golgari Fog
7. Dimir Terror
4. Blue Terror
1. Kuldotha Red
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