November 1-3 Pauper Weekend Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

Today’s post is a bit shorter than usual. It is election day here in the United States and I encourage all of you who live in the US to vote. This election will have wide reaching ramifications not just for this country but the world at large.

Foundations is almost here and it looks exciting. I wrote my thoughts about the set here (free to Patrons) but for the next few weeks we are still trying to make our way through Duskmourn. This past weekend saw three Challenges on Magic Online and the results were intriguing to say the very least. Not only did we see a return of some old stalwarts to the forefront of Pauper – looking at your Dimir Faeries – but we also saw a clustering at the top of the Winner’s Meta where several decks performed similarly. Let’s dive in.

The three best decks on the weekend, going by Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement, where Blue Terror (0.91), Kuldotha Red (0.89), and Grixis Affinity (0.83). While these three decks being at the top of the metagame is not a surprise, the lack of spread is something of note. All three of these decks are within 1/10th of a win from each other and all three performed less than one win above the average Top 32 deck. Compare this to last week where the top three decks were Golgari Fog (3.34), Grixis Affinity (3.2), and Golgari Broodscale (2.39). The dip from third to fourth place last week was 0.87; this week that spread was 0.52 (technically the fourth best deck was Dredge with an aMSAR of 0.37 – a delta of 0.46 – but Dredge had two total appearances to Jund Broodscale’s eleven Top 32 finishes).

So what does this mean? Last week the format appeared to be incredibly lopsided while the more recent run of events makes everything look much more competitive. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle. Now that we are six weeks into Duskmourn season we are seeing the metagame start to coalesce around known quantities and adjusting as such. I do not believe the format is as close at the top as the last three challenges seemed to indicate, nor do I think the wild spread is representative. Instead Pauper appears to be a dynamic format where decks, by and large, have relatively even matchups (with some outliers, of course). Clearly Pauper has some top tier decks as evidenced by the consistent performance of various Tolarian Terror builds and Grixis Affinity, but we have also seen some movement in second tier strategies as we have seen with the revitalization of Dimir Faeries and the reemergence of Jund Wildfire.

Dimir Faeries is one of those decks that never really dies. It is a midrange control deck that leans heavily on its creature suite for card advantage. Ninja of the Deep Hours and Thorn of the Black Rose both keep your hand full and Spellstutter Sprite remains one of the best things you can be doing in Pauper. The rest of the deck is padded out with interaction and while the spells themselves might not be flexible, the suite itself is. Dimir Faeries can adjust to most metagames by tweaking the exact mix of countermagic and removal. From the full suite of Snuff Outs we can infer that at the moment the biggest threat in the metagame likely is not Gurmag Angler and having a free answer to almost the entire format is a pretty big game. The fact that Snuff Out kills Basking Broodscale should not be underestimated. Given this decks relatively strong performance (aMSAR of 0.20), I would expect Elves to make a push next weekend. Elves has been rising in the rankings as of late thanks in part to the addition of Nyxborn Hydra as another way to convert mana into damage and while the strategy clearly has some weaknesses people are innovating with their lists and I am excited to see what comes next.

The other deck I wanted to talk about today is Jund Wildfire. Another strategy enabled by the Bridges from Modern Horizons 2, Jund Wildfire is a more true midrange deck that leans hard on artifact synergy. Previous iterations went with Bleak Coven Vampires or Avenging Hunter as a top end, but the latest builds tend to end on Writhing Chrysalis. The build featured above also pairs a sweeper – Krark-Clan Shaman – with Toxin Analysis for a way to clear the ground and gain a ton of life. This build also has Nyxborn Hydra as a way to win the game late while all the best “metalcraft” cards in black and red. This deck is less flexible than Dimir Faeries as it lacks counterspells but if games come down to board presence this seems like a good choice. All that being said I would not be so bullish on Jund Wildfire next weekend due in no small part to the strength of Dimir Faeries.

Where does that leave things heading into next weekend? Terror decks, Grixis Affinity, and Kuldotha Red are not going anywhere and we can count on Dimir Faeries making its presence felt. While Jund Wildfire may not be able to keep pace there are some reasons to believe that Broodscale Combo will continue to take up a decent amount of the metagame. I would want to be a Snuff Out deck that could leverage Gurmag Angler (to avoid other copies of Snuff Out) while also having access to a way to survive early attacks. Bleak Coven Vampire is a bit of a risk and Vampire Sovereign may just be too slow and leaning into cards like Lone Missionary might be necessary, if a bit uninspiring. Is it time for Orzhov Gates to shine? Probably not but it is nice to dream.

There’s a larger story at play here that is starting to come into focus. While a lot of the discourse in Pauper enters around the strength of the red deck, the format is largely defined by its ability to answer threats. Thanks to cards like Nuxborn Hydra and Writhing Chrysalis we are seeing more decks run creatures that are more or less just big bodies that come with built in resilience. This is important to keep in mind as stopping the first wave might no longer be enough and having the biggest blocker standing could be all that stands between a win and a loss.

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