Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
How do you make sense of a small sample size?
When looking at any data set it is important to understand how large the source of your information is in reality. A Top 8 might be flashy but it is hardly significant in the grand scheme of things. Similarly, a deck performing well in a single tournament might mean it was particularly well positioned on that day or it could indicate something greater. A whole weekend’s worth of events could start to tell a story and a season with the same card file could maybe finish it.
None of these are actually significant. The sheer number of matches that would need to be played to draw remotely concrete conclusions is likely more than Magic Online could support in a single event. Leagues are likely a better source of such information but beyond a list of decks that went undefeated we are not privy to a more complete picture.
Pauper’s current blind spot is compounded with the recent trend of smaller Challenge fields. While a single event may not provide reliable and repeatable results, a seven round affair gives us a better idea of what is actually going on than one that lasts only six rounds. When trying to discern the “truth” to a format, variance is the enemy and while any one can win six coin flips in a row, the more times the quarter spins in the air the more likely it is the result ends up split over time. The Duskmourn trend of Challenges with fewer than 64 players means each event provides less reliable data.
This is part of the reason why we are seeing such wild swings in the results from week to week. Kuldotha Red was one of the best decks for the first three weeks of the season but took a massive step back in week four. Last weekend the deck had several 2-4 finishes which brought down its result. The strategy performed about a full win worse than the average Top 32 deck over the October 25-27 tournaments. Clearly this does not mean the deck is bad (small sample size, remember?) but it does conform to the recent trends we have seen.
What is a trend, then? When we look at the data and can infer something that may be happening, and then that inkling is seemingly confirmed in outcome, that is a trend. These are not necessarily statistical certainties – although they may bear out that way – they are far easier to see from week to week than trying to determine the best deck in the format (according to the numbers). If you have been reading this series for any length of time you will no doubt understand that I deal heavily in trends. This is because trends are reasonable to parse. I can present charts week after week and say that Red might have had a good showing but decks that traditionally do well against it are on the rise.
All that being said I would not have put Golgari Fog as having the best showing last weekend. The strategy had only four Top 32 appearances but converted three of those to the Top 8. Golgari Fog held 4.17% of the Top 32 metagame but more than doubled that in the Winner’s Metgame with 9.28% of that share. In smaller fields Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement is a less accurate representation of relative strength but a weekly score of 3.34 is still impressive. For comparison the next best deck by this metric was Grixis Affinity with a score of 3.2
Golgari Fog is a control deck built to last. The entire conceit here is to survive long enough to start looping spells with Campfire and slowly kill your opponent, whether it is with a Basilisk Gate enhanced Khalni Garden token, multiple activations of Crypt Rats, or removing the final cards of your opponent’s library with Stream of Thought. The deck is highly redundant but even so it only has a few ways to survive to full enact its plan – the pair of Campfire. While not the most popular archetype this deck has been on the rise over the past few weeks in part due to its ability to stymie aggressive strategies.
What was more anticipated, however, was the rise of Tolarian Terror decks. Given the recent push of Basking Broodscale decks, having access to Counterspell is rather important in the given moment and the three main Tolarian Terror decks – Blue Terror, Dimir Terror, and Izzet Control – are all able to best leverage the Alpha stalwart. Terror decks can use their counters to either stop an opposing game plan early or keep the adversary from establishing a foothold while already facing down an army of 5/5 monsters. Combined these three decks had 21 appearances in the Top 32 with six total Top 8s. All decks also had positive aMSARs – Blue Terror with 0.50, Dimir Terror with 1.52, and Izzet Control with 0.65. All told Tolarian Terror decks accounted for around 27.5% of the Winner’s Metagame.
Reading the trend lines, next week should be about beating Terror. Grixis Affinity and Kuldotha Red are not going anywhere but finding a way to survive while not rolling over to Terror and friends will be key to success. Mono White Aggro might be able to find a lane but I would be looking for Basilisk Gate decks that are more assertive than the standard CawGate affair. Alternatively Gruul Ramp could make headway, especially if it can find a way to effectively cast Swirling Sandstorm without trashing its own board.
Trends are important when preparing for Magic events. However the recent announcement regarding six Standard releases a year may confound this issue. Pauper moves slowly and it can often take a month or more for the impact of new non-Horizons sets to materialize. Moving forward it might be that once a trend emerges we are already going to be preparing for the next influx of game pieces. Now given that these cards are aimed at both Limited and Standard it is unlikely Pauper is going to be getting too many cards that upset the apple cart but if another Thraben Inspector shows up it might be hard to fully comprehend what that means before the next Reckless Impulse arrives. All that being said I am cautiously optimistic for the influx as it could mean support for otherwise fringe favorites.
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