Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
The first step to solving a problem is identifying if one exists in the first place. If you’ve been following this blog for Duskmourn season you will no doubt know that until this point I did not believe that Kuldotha Red presented a real problem in the Pauper metagame. The truth of the matter is that I still do not feel this way, but my conviction in the matter is not nearly as strong. As always when presented with new information I tend to reevaluate my positions and this past weekend provided a slate of new data to examine and explore.
There are a few things to note about the weekend of October 11-October 13. First is that in addition to the three Challenges there was a Pauper Qualifier – a feeder tournament for the Pro Tour system. The second thing to note is that the Saturday Challenge – which had 42 total players – ran concurrently with the Qualifier. Five of Kuldotha Red’s Top 8 finishes on the weekend and one of its wins all came in this smaller Challenge. I point this out because Kuldotha Red is a fairly easy deck for Double Queuing – that is play in two tournaments simultaneously. Two of the players who made Top 8 in the Challenge on Saturday with Red also played the deck in the Qualifier (with one making Top 8 there as well).
This context is important. In aggregate red demolished the field. A Win+ Average better than 1 puts the deck’s average finish firmly in the Top 16. Kuldotha Red’s eleven Top 8 finishes over the weekend are nearly two better than could be expected given its overall results. The strategy held 21.88% of the Top 32 metagame and improved on that nearly five percent to 26.84% of the Winner’s Meta. Rounding this all out, Kuldotha Red finished the weekend with an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.4, nearly a win and a half better than the average Top 32 deck and over a full win better than the next tier of strategies.
But there’s more. The Pauper Challenge Project, as communicated by Kirblinxy collected information that showed Kuldotha Red had a better than 60% non-mirror win rate in the three Challenges over the weekend. This, combined with the rather alarming numbers overall, should be cause for alarm. If you have gotten to this point and have read my articles before, I am sure you can expect a twist.
The same Pauper Challenge Project collected data on the Qualifier where Kuldotha Red had a sub-45% non-mirror win rate. That is a marked difference from the dominant performance alluded to in the other data. The deck accounted for 23.74% of the entire field in the Qualifier as opposed to 20.13% of the entire Challenge meta on the weekend, with more Red players participating in the Challenge than in all three Challenges combined. The larger data set provides a different picture of Kuldotha Red – one that is just as popular but possibly less dangerous overall.
All of this being said I am more concerned about Red’s role in the metagame today than I was a week ago. The popularity of the strategy, combined with its sustained success is cause for additional attention. A 60% non-mirror win rate over a weekend is an eye popping stat, but if its lightning in a bottle that’s very different than sustained success. As it stands today, Kuldotha Red is leading the way in Duskmourn season with a cumulative Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.1 where no other deck has a score above 0.3. If Red is able to sustain this clip then it might be time for a different course of action. For now I am still of the mindset that the format can adjust for the red shift.
There are two decks that cropped up I wanted to discuss. The first is this Boros Heroic build that made the Top 32 in the Friday Challenge.
I like what this deck is trying to do. Tenth District Legionnaire is the kind of card worth stretching your mana base for and the additional card flow provided by Ancestral Anger – as well as its ability to punch through for extra damage – could be well worth the decrease in consistency. While I understand Sticky Fingers it feels a bit optimistic here as the Aura does not really do much for helping in combat. I wonder if this deck could make use of a few copies of Turn Inside Out as it would have little problem turning Manifested creatures face up. If that were the case it would probably need to up the threat count or find a way to include more graveyard synergy.
The other deck I wanted to point out is this Orzhov Blade list that made Top 8 on Sunday. This is the kind of deck that can really find its lane once the metagame has started to settle. Orzhov Blade has the ability to go toe-to-toe with assertive strategies by chucking blockers into play. The Kor Skyfisher – Omen of the Dead loop provides a decent long game plan. I would be somewhat concerned about the mana cost of Cast Down in such an aggressive metagame but I am not sure any deck can easily afford to max out on Snuff Out in the moment. If there is one card I am eyeing for this build it is Carrot Cake for its ability to put blockers on the board while also providing a small life bump in dire straits.
If I were to play in next weekend’s events I would likely be on some form of Orzhov Blade. While I would not be sure on Carrot Cake I would almost certainly be looking to include some number of Extract a Confession. Blue Terror and Dimir Terror both had solid showings last weekend and given the continued presence of Kuldotha Red in the metagame it would not surprise me of Bogles made a run at some Top 8s. In both instances having access to a more curated Edict effect could work wonders, especially if your game plan is built around incremental advantages.
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