Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Oh yeah, I’m thinking I’m back.
But in all seriousness, this past weekend saw three Pauper Challenges take place on Magic Online. There was also a Showcase Qualifier but I am excluding that from this results summary mostly because it failed to reach a 32 player threshold. At five rounds the event would skew the data set to such a degree that I fear it would create more noise than information. All that being said the event did seem to lean a bit more on the assertive side of things which largely tracks with the wider trends we have seen in Pauper since the return of published data.
It is hard to talk about the current state of Pauper without bringing up the recent surge in Mono White Aggro. The deck has been a fringe contender for quite some time and apparently the final piece it needed was an above average removal spell in Thraben Charm. The deck wins by putting power and toughness onto the battlefield then using said stats to attack and block for the win. The deck is not “simple” but it is straightforward and the fact that it is experiencing this level of success is heartening as it relates to overall format health as it represents the first traditional aggro deck to experience such heights in quite some time. Last week Mono White had the third best Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement at 0.86 but was the second most populous deck int he Winner’s Meta Share with 16.16%.
What deck topped the field in aMSAR? Blue Terror with an impressive 1.07 (and 13.58% of the Winner’s Meta Share). This strategy cemented itself as part of the Pauper metagame last year when Cryptic Serpent was downshifted in Commander Masters. Since then it has cycled in and out of the top tier but has always been a solid choice. The deck excels at presenting a real threat and backing it up with Counterspell, something that has been a tried and true path to victory for decades at this point. Like Mono White Aggro, Blue Terror also got a new spell from Modern Horizons 3 in the shape of Deem Inferior, which usually costs a single blue mana thanks to the abundance of cantrips. The ability to tuck an offending nonland permanent in pretty important as it can buy precious time against Basking Broodscale decks (amongst others).
Grixis Affinity might have been the most popular deck in the Winner’s Meta Share (17.19%) and had the second best aMSAR (0.98) but instead of talking about Affinity again I want to discuss Golgari Gardens. This archetype had all but fallen off the radar in recent weeks, hardly making a dent in the first month of the Modern Horizons 3 cycle. After a solid showing last week it took another step up with 11.1% of the Winner’s Meta Share and an aMSAR score of 0.55. Given the abundance of decks that lean heavily on creatures – whether they are trying to attack or are components of a combo, it was only a matter of time before one of the best Snuff Out decks returned to prominence. In addition to the 10 copies of Gardens to make the Top 32 there were three Mono Black variants (that did touch other colors in the sideboard) with similar game plans that lacked the closing power provided by Avenging Hunter.
Where does that leave things looking ahead to next week? Pauper is in a pretty good spot right now, format health wise, and the reviews are glowing. Despite the continued strength of Affinity it is far from clear that the Machine is the best deck on a week to week basis. Things are constantly shifting and at times it feels as if anything can not only win, but experience some modicum of sustained success.
Coming off of last week where the shift towards black based removal strategies was somewhat expected, I anticipate movement towards more resilient threats. Cards like Sacred Cat laugh at a single Snuff Out while Sneaky Snacker is a persistent nuisance. If removal is going to be out in force then a deck that cares less about losing a singular threat seem like good choices. If it were me I would be looking at Orzhov builds that lean on Ephemerate and potentially go over the top with a card like Vampire Sovereign.
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NerdtotheCore 