Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Modern Horizons 3 is finally here! While some players meet these sets with a sense of trepidation, especially for what they do to established formats, I find them exciting in how much change they can catalyze. The infusion of power cards help to push the metagame and new and different directions which, at least at the start of the process, is novel. The issues arise when whatever is new is so powerful that it obsoletes everything that came before without bearing a passing resemblance to that same era.
At the same time, formats need to evolve and adapt. Sometimes decks simply loose their luster and there is very little that can be done to return them to the spotlight. Stompy is a great example of this phenomena. Once a format staple due to how its threats lined up with the metagame, the mono green deck has fallen on hard times due in part to the power creep in other cards but also due to how the deck’s avenue of attack doesn’t mesh with the latest traffic pattern in Pauper.
Back to the story at hand. So while what the latest iteration of Modern Horizons‘ impact might not be fully known, the weekend of the set’s debut has certainly provided Pauper with some interesting points of information. In some ways the first set of Challenges met expectations and in at least one way caught people just a bit off guard.
Across the three Challenges that took place this weekend, Grixis Affinity was the most popular archetype (23 total appearances out of 179 entrants; 12.85%). Bogles placing second (18 total appearances, 10.06%) was a bit of a surprise but once you look a bit deeper it starts to make sense.
Let’s start with Grixis Affinity. Going into Modern Horizons 3 this was the deck at the forefront of the discourse. The latest iteration of a dedicated Artifact Land deck, Grixis Affinity operates as a control deck and instead of applying pressure early (with cards that have since been banned), Grixis wants to drag out the game so it can win by recurring threats with Blood Fountain or setting up a situation where Makeshift Munitions can handle those final life points by throwing Bridges at people. The prevailing narrative going into the weekend was that, thanks to Refurbished Familiar Sneaky and Snacker the deck had achieved Tier Zero status. The early returns in the League backed up this claim before the deck’s trophy count fell off.
Now it could very well be true that the sheer amount of hate being packed for Affinity – Dust to Dust, Deglamer, Gorilla Shaman, Ancient Grudge, and more – could be holding the deck back. However even when players were packing significant hate for previous decks to be decried at Tier Zero (Glitter Affinity, Red with Swiftspear), those decks still managed to pad their trophy chest and have strong performances in the Challenges. The current builds of Affinity have yet to display this sort of stickiness in the face of a prepared metagame. Whether this settles into a healthy cycle remains to be seen but it is something I’m keeping my ever-hopeful eye upon.
Bogles is a deck I didn’t really put a ton of stock in moving into the latest release cycle. The deck tends to perform well in new metagames as people adjust their removal but I was completely caught off guard by how good Malevolent Rumble is in the builds. Rumble digs towards everything that Bogles wants – lands, creatures, or auras – all why providing a piece of fodder to feed to Tithing Blade and the like. The fact that it also leaves behind a body which can wear auras, albeit without the protection inherent in the deck’s namesake, helps to increase the overall consistency of the deck. While it is only one weekend, Bogles was hte most popular deck in the Top 32 (up to 13.52% of the latter), before dipping to 11.53% of the winner’s metagame with an Adjusted Metascore Above Replacement of 0.54. By comparison, Affinity dropped to 10.42% of the Top 32 metagame with a winner’s share of 7.12%. It also pulled in with an aMSAR of -0.09, meaning it performed slightly worse than average in the Top 32.
So what deck led the way? Why Orzhov Blade. It has an impressive aMSAR of 1.31 and gained share with each narrowing of our scope. Ten appearances means 5.59% of the total metagame, with six of those decks making the Top 32 (6.25%) and an impressive 9.86% of the winner’s metagame. It also closed the weekend with three Top 8 finishes, tying Bogles in that regard. These decks are adept at recycling enters-the-battlefield triggers and Refurbished Familiar is a natural fit, especially for a deck that wants to grind out small advantages turn after turn.
Even though these strategies did not perform exceptionally well, I want to point out the development in the Arbor Elf/Utopia Sprawl decks. These decks have made great use of current bane of limited Writhing Chrysalis, which slots in perfectly to play defense until it can turn sideways, all while providing more mana for expensive late game spells. Some of these builds have moved away from land destruction, instead opting to focus entirely on a proactive metagame and so these archetypes have been split into Ponza (mana denial) and Ramp (accelerated endgame) buckets. This is absolutely going to be an archetype to watch moving forward and I am interested to see where the lists settle.
As for next week I fully expect Bogles, Ramp, and Orzhov to be at the top of everyone’s mind (with Tolarian Terror decks not far behind). Extract a Confession seems like where you want to be for Edict style removal and as a result Basilisk Gate starts to look like an attractive option. Or you could just copy Gabriel Nassif’s deck from the Creator Showcase and run Boros Bully, which hasn’t gained any new cards (EDIT: I missed the two copies of Thraben Charm in my review of the list; my mistake) but appears to be well positioned against the rest of the meta, at least for this week.
Power Rankings
- 10: Mono White Aggro
- 9: Kuldotha Red
- 8: Gruul Ramp/Ponza
- 7: Grixis Affinity
- 6: CawGate
- 5: Goblin Combo
- 4: Rakdos Madness
- 3: Blue Terror
- 2: Bogles
- 1: Orzhov Blade
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