Outlaws of Thunder Junction Check In

Pauper in a Post-All That Glitters World

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

It feels like I haven’t checked in on the format in a while. As it so happens the past few weeks have been incredibly busy for me, with a previously scheduled medical procedure (I’m fine!), childcare responsibilities (I’m exhausted!) and the reveal of Modern Horizons 3 (I need to finish my set review!). Because of this temporal reality we now have ten Challenge level events in the post-All That Glitters metagame, so what better time to do a check in? As per usual we are going to be looking at the total Challenge metagame, the Top 32 Metagame, and the Winner’s Metagame.

This chart takes into account all 656 decks that played at least one round in one of the events over the past three weeks. The cut off for making the chart is 2%, with 14 total appearances netting 2.13% of the total meta. There were 35 different archetypes that did not meet this threshold.

If you have been following Pauper over the past few months it should not be surprising that Grixis Affinity and Kuldotha Red are the two most popular decks in the format at the moment. Red was a powerful strategy before the recent ban and while it was possible that the lack of another aggressive strategy could mean an increase in hate for red, it hasn’t put a damper on how many people are eager to sleeve up Mountain and Great Furnace. This is not misplaced belief as Red largely holds up as you look at the meta from other angles, with 12.81% of the Top 32 Metagame and 11.77% of the Winner’s Metagame. Kuldotha Red is currently tied for 4th/5th in Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement with a score of 0.57.

Grixis Affinity is a powerful control deck that leverages the Affinity and Metalcraft mechanics for undercosted threats, interaction, and card draw. Prior to the introduction of All That Glitters it was a top tier archetype that took a step back once people began to apply pressure early and often with copies of Gingerbrute wearing fancy pants. Without the threat of imminent doom it became reasonable for Affinity to grind out the game with Blood Fountain again, perhaps benefiting from the drop in artifact specific hate in the wake of the format update. While Grixis had a fantastic weekend May24-26 it came back to early last weekend, which could indicate that people are putting respect on the Grixis name. Like Red, Grixis largely held true to its 12.2% Challenge Metagame with 12.81% of the Top 32 Meta, ticking up to 13.36% of the Winner’s Metagame. Through these three weeks Grixis is leading the pack with an aMSAR of 1.06.

Not every strategy held true between the overall field and the cutoff to the Top 32. Golgari Gardens, for example, saw a decent increase from 5.79% of the larger sample to 8.56% of the Top 32 Metagame. These gains were not reflected in the Winner’s Metagame, dropping back to 5.25% of that sample with an aMSAR of 0.10 (ninth best through this point). Blue Terror, on the other hand, held steady from Total Metagame (4.57%) to Top 32 metgame (5%) but, thanks to a fantastic weekend May 31-June, jumped to 8.17% of the Winner’s Metgame. Also on the back of the last weekend of results (five Top 8 finishes with a win), it holds the second best aMSAR with 1.01.

Blue Terror was not the only deck with five Top 9s and win last weekend. CawGate achieved the same results. A more popular deck with 9.76% of the Challenge Meta, the strategy jumps up to 11.56% of the Top 32 Metagame before coming back to the pack just a bit with 10.66% of the Winner’s Metgame. It falls just behind Kuldotha Red (and Jeskai Ephemerate) with an aMSAR of 0.56.

There’s one more deck I want to call out and that is Gruul Cascade. This deck, built around accelerating out copies of Mwonvuli Acid-Moss and Annoyed Altisaur, was hardly a blip during the All That Glitters era. The strategy went from 2.61% of the pre-ban Thunder Junction meta to 5.79% over the past three weeks. This jumps to 6.88% of the Top 32 Metagame (up from 1.17% before the ban) and another step up to 7.26% of the Winner’s Metagame (a massive leap from 0.84%). Arbor Elf might not be the best thing you can be doing in Pauper these days but it is a much more reasonable option these days.

What does this mean moving forward and towards Modern Horizons 3? The metagame, overall, is far less stratified than it was previously. As a result being able to correctly predict the subtle shifts in top tiers will work to your advantage. For example, players adjusted for Affinity after the weekend of May 24-26 in deck choice and sideboard options and the deck took a massive step back. If this trend holds true then next week should see people attempt to beat back Blue Terror and CawGate, which means an emphasis on Tithing Blade and similar spells, which in turn can create a window for Dimir Faeries or Kuldotha Red to have a strong performance.

Power Rankings

• 10: Dimir Faeries
• 9: Izzet Control
• 8: Golgari Gardens
• 7: Gruul Cascade
• 6: Jeskai Ephemerate
• 5: CawGate
• 4: Goblin Combo
• 3: Blue Terror
• 2: Kuldotha Red
• 1: Grixis Affinity

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