Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Today’s post would not have been possible a few months ago. It is only recently that Daybreak games has decided to provide the decklists for every Challenge participant, which provides a more robust image of what actually is going on in Pauper. At the same time while more information is a good thing, the data still needs to be put into context. Let’s take this past weekend’s Challenge meta breakdown.
At first glance this does not look like a healthy metagame. Over 20% of the entire weekend Challenge metagame (49 decks out of 231 entrants) were Kuldotha Red. Coming off of a year dominated by Monastery Swiftspear and friends this is a disconcerting sight. Even if the Monk is banned the deck is still a force to be reckoned with as it can go under many other strategies while also putting a ton of damage on the board between Kuldotha Rebirth and Goblin Bushwhacker. Kuldotha Red also benefits from the positioning of Electrickery and Breath Weapon against All That Glitters. This is not trying to take anything away from the strength of Red but again, context matters.
What happens when you look at the Top 32 metagame? Kuldotha Red takes a step backwards to 18.75% of that population. Going deeper and examining the Winner’s Metagame, Kuldotha Red tanks to 12.76%. While the deck is flooding the field it is not performing well relative to its performance. While it’s conversion rate from overall Challenge to Top 32 is reasonable, once it gets past that threshold the deck is largely pedestrian. Kuldotha Red’s weekend Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement came in at 0.09, placing its performance as a hair above average.
Using Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement as our barometer, the best performing deck on the weekend was CawGate with a healthy 1.20 aMSAR score. CawGate only took down 4.76% of the overall metagame and improved upon this to 5.47% of the Top 32 metagame. Looking at the Winner’s Meta we see a decent jump to a share of 8.5%. The addition of Outlaw Medic provides a decent blocker and way to pad your life total. In a world so focused on aggression the ability to not only block but also to crunch in for massive lifelink swings thanks to Basilisk Gate counts for quite a bit.
So does that mean CawGate had the best overall weekend? That is not so clear. Boros Glitters can make a case. Looking at the three metagame shares it starts with 6.93% of the total meta before improving to 9.38% of the Top 32 meta and finishing off with 10.93% of the Winner’s Meta. A weekend silver medal with an aMSAR of 0.79 places this beatdown deck firmly in the “above average” camp, which should come as no surprise if you’ve played Pauper over the past few months. Boros Glitters is the premier All That Glitters deck at the moment and can effectively win from nowhere by maneuvering a game to a point where a top-decked Aura will end things on one swing.
There are plenty of other interesting tidbits from last weekend. Dimir Faeries led the way with five total Top 8 appearances but largely performed to expectations across the three metas (total, Top 32, Winner’s). Dimir Faeries’ 0.12 aMSAR places it as above a replacement level entry but lagging behind other strategies. Out of the four archetypes that won a Challenge only CawGate can lay claim to having the best weekend but Golgari Gardens is not far behind, improving over three percentage points from total meta with Winner’s Meta and ending up with an aMSAR of 0.46.
So where does that leave things going into next weekend? At a surface level you need to be prepared for aggression from both the “go-wide” of Kuldotha Red and the “go-tall” of All That Glitters, but you cannot rely entirely on Fog effects thanks to the copious amount of burn and the resilience of Basilisk Gate to push through damage. The best solution for this puzzle might be playing a more reactive deck that has ways to answer Guardian of the Guildpact. Being able to remove offending threats is important and sitting back with removal can work until you meet a creature that just refuses to die.
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