Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
We made it! Ten weeks of Murders at Karlov Manor Challenges on Magic Online are in the books and we are ready to turn the page to Outlaws of Thunder Junction. While the latest cards are sure to have an impact the chances of them completely upsetting the apple cart are slim. With my season Power Rankings coming out later this week today, as always, is going to be a look at the immediate future based on the most recent past.
Once again this chart represents the entire Challenge Metagame for the four events over the last weekend. It should not come as a surprise that Boros Synth is remains the most popular deck – it is a strong option that has the ability to get games over in a hurry. What is interesting is that this is the second week in a row where Kuldotha Red took the silver medal in that category. Also of note is that Black Gardens overtook Dimir Faeries in overall popularity, at least for one weekend.
If there is an overarching story this season it is one of finding the correct suite of threats. Kuldotha Red started the cycle strong before giving away to the Azorius build of Glitter Affinity. After a short stretch of that deck at the top of the heap Boros Synth overtook it. At various points over the course of the ten weeks we also saw Black Gardens, CawGate, Dimir Control and Dimir Faeries lay claim to “best deck” for a weekend. What can we extrapolate from these points of information in order to better inform our plans for the first weeks of Thunder Junction?
I think the best place to start is to put your foot on the gas. Despite the prevalence of controlling strategies that include black removal, assertive strategies have had an overall better season than reactive ones. Specifically all three of the “aggro” decks that have found success are ones that have enough reach to conceivably “win from nowhere”. Whether it is a goblin that gives you a power boost or an aura that acts as a force multiplier, these decks can not only soften up an opposing life total but then take it out in one fell swoop once the time is right. If you are trying to beat down next weekend keep this in mind – do you have that extra gear? If not you may want to reconsider your deck choice.
If you want to meet the aggression head on then your best bet is to be running black removal. Red’s removal is fine but it lacks black’s ability to simply kill on sight. Whether it is a forced sacrifice or a targeted effect, black is just better at making sure the creature goes to the graveyard. Black also has the advantage of being able to scale its board wipes thanks to cards like Crypt Rats, which means it can save a higher leverage removal spell for more robust threats. The Rats also clears the board so Tithing Blade and the like can go to work helps to keep black in the driver’s seat when it comes to handling threats.
It is this interplay of black removal, headlined by Snuff Out, and All That Glitters that currently defines the format. Black uses its life total as a resource but that includes Snuff Out and Crypt Rats. If black can stabilize, either through card draw or simply removing all threats then it can reasonable survive until it can turn the corner. On the other hand if black missteps then All That Glitters can come down and end the game in short order.
So what does threading that needle look like? If I had the answer I’d be winning a lot more of my matches. Last week saw a small bump in Orzhov Midrange and Turbo Fog, which have slightly different approaches for dealing with the format. The successful builds of Orzhov leaned on removal for sure, but also provided enough bodies to throw in the way of attackers. Turbo Fog is not a deck for everyone but it does the job of simply attempting to ignore combat altogether.
Then there’s CawGate. The deck continues to chug along, posting solid results. It also has the right mix of threats to get get around black’s removal while also having access to cards that can stall Glitter strategies. Prismatic Strands is a heck of a card but Standard Bearer can also put in work. The issue with CawGate is speed as it is deck that needs to take the first few turns at half speed, using tap lands and cards such as The Modern Age to set up a midgame power house. This provides aggressive decks a chance to get under and provides the black decks the opportunities to find removal.
It is possible, therefore, to look at Arbor Elf and Utopia Sprawl decks as a way to jump the curve. Gruul Cascade also saw a small uptick in strength over the weekend and while fragile these builds can be explosive. I think if you can solve the consistency issue then these builds, with their ability to accelerate to an endgame, could be a reasonable week one choice in the world of Thunder Junction.
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